strong opinions
Strong Opinion
EASTERN MICH 24 Ball St. (-5.0) 23
09:00 AM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Ball State went into last week overrated and they’re still overrated despite losing 13- 14 to Miami-Ohio as a 5 point home favorite. The Cardinals do have a good offense, although you wouldn’t know it based on last week’s 4.8 yards per play and 13 points, but Eastern Michigan is a much improved defensive team that held Pittsburgh to just 5.2 yppl in last week’s 3-27 loss. The Eagles surrendered 5.7 yppl last season (to teams that would average 5.1 yppl against an average defensive team), but that unit is considerably better this season and I rate them slightly better than Ball State’s offense. Ball State’s defense is also likely to be better after allowing 6.4 yppl last season (against teams that would combine to average 5.1 yppl against an average team) and they certainly looked good last week against Miami-Ohio (4.9 yppl allowed), but I’ll need more than one game worth of evidence to proclaim the Cardinals as being decent on defense. Eastern Michigan struggled last week offensively, as expected, and their offense is one of the worst in the nation, but they aren’t much worse than Ball State’s defense. Overall, my ratings pick this game even and Eastern Michigan applies to a decent 50-23 ATS early season indicator. I’ll consider Eastern Michigan a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more.
Strong Opinion
PENN ST. (-17.5) 34 Notre Dame 10
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Notre Dame is not as bad as they looked in their 3-33 home loss to Georgia Tech, but I rated the Irish just 2.6 points better than an average Division 1A team entering that game and they certainly aren’t better than that. Coach Charlie Weis is turning to true freshman Jimmy Clausen at quarterback this week after his experiment running a spread offense with Demetrius Jones backfired. The fact that Weis would be desperate enough to go away from the pro style attack that worked so well his first two years here tells you that he has no confidence in his quarterbacks to run the pro system. Georgia Tech overwhelmed the Notre Dame line with blitzes while showing no fear of getting beaten by a downfield pass and Irish quarterbacks were sacked 9 times. Penn State’s defense is just as good as Georgia Tech’s defense and the Nittany Lions actually registered a few more sacks than the Yellow Jackets last season while opening with 7 sacks in their opener against Florida International. Clausen will not have a good ground attack to make it easier on him, as the Irish averaged only 1.9 yards per rushing play last week. Last week’s pathetic ground game underscores just how good former top back Darius Walker was. Walker averaged 4.7 ypr in 2005 and 5.0 ypr last season for Notre Dame while the other backs on the roster combined to average just 3.9 ypr those two seasons. I had figured that the running attack would struggle without Walker and it could be worse than I thought. Clausen saw some action last week and completed 4 of 6 passes for 34 yards, but he was also sacked twice for 14 yards and only averaged 2.5 yards per pass play. I still think Notre Dame will have an average pass attack this season with a poor rushing attack, but that’s not good enough against a Penn State defense that I rate at 1.2 yards per play better than average. The Nittany Lions had a great defense last season too, but their offense held them back. That should not be the case this year, as quarterback Anthony Morelli is reportedly much more comfortable throwing the ball downfield this season and he averaged 7.0 yards per pass play last week against a better than average Florida International pass defense. Penn State’s rushing attack is about average and I rate Penn State’s attack at 0.3 yppl better than average this season. Notre Dame is about average defensively again this season, so the Nittany Lions should move the ball at an above average clip while taking advantage of the good field position that their defense is likely to give them. The pointspread may look high, but my ratings would have favored Penn State by 16 points prior to last week’s games, so the line is at least fair this week (my updated ratings favor the Lions by 18 points). While there really isn’t much line value, Penn State is still worth playing based on a very good 58-18-1 ATS subset of a 127-54-3 ATS home favorite momentum situation. The Nittany Lions will certainly be motivated given their 17-41 loss at Notre Dame last season (a misleading score given Penn State was only out-gained 5.2 yppl to 5.5 yppl) and I’ll take Penn State in a 2-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less.
Strong Opinion
North Carolina 21 EAST CAROLINA (-5.0) 20
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Both of these teams played well last week, as East Carolina was only out-gained 3.9 yards per play to 4.3 yppl in their 7-17 loss at highly ranked Virginia Tech. North Carolina, meanwhile, out-gained James Madison 6.3 yppl to 3.9 yppl in a 37-14 victory. Beating James Madison may not seem that impressive to most of you, but my math model would have favored James Madison in that game had it been played at the end of last season and the Dukes were only about 1 point worse than an average Division 1A team and aren’t that much worse than that this season. North Carolina is an improved team under Butch Davis and the defense was particularly impressive last week. James Madison averaged 6.6 yppl in 11 games against Division 1A or AA teams last season and those numbers translate into being 0.3 yppl better than an average D1A attack – so the Tarheels yielding just 3.9 yppl to that unit is impressive. My ratings favor East Carolina by 5 ½ points in this game, but North Carolina applies to a 42-9 ATS game 2 angle and I’ll consider North Carolina a Strong Opinion at +4 points or more and I’d take UNC in a 2-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more.
Strong Opinion
MISSISSIPPI 25 Missouri (-6.0) 24
03:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Missouri was fortunate to beat Illinois last week, as the Tigers were out-gained 4.9 yards per play to 5.9 yppl, and they may not get past Mississippi this week. Missouri is only 2-9-1 ATS as a road favorite under coach Gary Pinkel and the Tigers apply to a negative 60-138-1 ATS indicator this week as well as a negative 30-80-3 ATS week 2 situation. Mississippi played about as well as I expected in beating Memphis last week and the Rebels are just an average team on a national scale, but they covered 5 of their last 6 as a dog last season, losing to Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, and LSU by a combined 17 points (2 in OT) – so they are certainly capable of hanging tough with Missouri. Ole’ Miss is 4-1 ATS as a home underdog under coach Orgeron and they are in a good situation for an upset win today. My ratings favor Missouri by 6 ½ points, so the line is fair, and I’ll consider Ole’ Miss a Strong Opinion at +5 points or more and I’ll take Mississippi in a 2-Star Best Bet at +7 points or more.
Strong Opinion
BAYLOR (-6.5) 30 Rice 19
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Rice was the worst team that made a bowl game last year and they proved that by losing 17-41 to lowly Troy State in the New Orleans Bowl. The Owls were decent offensively when Chase Clement was behind center, but their defense was one of the worst in Division 1A, allowing 6.6 yards per play to a schedule of teams that would combine to average only 5.3 yppl against an average team. Rice has their 3rd head coach in 3 years, but the David Bailiff era started with a 14-16 home loss to Division 1AA Nicholls State. The Rice spread offense looked horrible, as the graduation of star running back Quinton Smith (1096 yards at 5.2 ypr last year) left a huge void and Clement, who was actually 0.9 yards per pass play worse than average last season, completed just 11 of 28 passes for 101 yards and threw 3 interceptions (only threw 5 last season). Rice’s offense is well below average and Baylor looks like they have a pretty good defense this year after taking a step back last season. The Bears were very good defensively in 2005, rating at 0.4 yppl better than an average Division 1A team, but they returned just 4 starters to that unit last season and were 0.5 yppl worse than average. This year’s stop unit is more experienced (7 returning starters) and they held a good TCU attack to just 5.1 yppl in last week’s 0-27 loss. The offense performed about as I expected, averaging only 3.5 yppl against a vicious Horned Frogs’ defense (I expected 3.3 yppl), but the 4 interceptions thrown by quarterback Blake Szymanski were more than expected. Baylor’s offense is just as bad as Rice’s attack, but the Bears have a much better defense and my ratings favor Baylor by 9 points in this game. Rice applies to a negative 51-110-1 ATS early season road situation and I’ll consider Baylor a Strong Opinion at -7 points or less and I’d take Baylor in a 2-Star Best Bet at -4 or less.
Strong Opinion
TCU 21 TEXAS (-9.5) 24
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Neither of these teams played their best last week, but Texas coaches have to be concerned after being out played by Arkansas State last week. The Longhorns were out gained 5.0 yards per play to 5.6 yppl and were lucky to win that game 21-13 as a 39 point favorite. TCU managed to beat Baylor 27-0, but the Horned Frogs were sluggish on offense under redshirt freshman quarterback Andy Dalton, who averaged a sub-par 5.9 yards per pass play in his debut. The rushing attack wasn’t that good either (4.6 yards per rushing play) and star back Aaron Brown may miss this game after being injured early in last week’s contest. The Horned Frogs played great defense (3.5 yppl allowed) despite being without All-American DE Tommy Blake. Blake practiced earlier this week, but he’s questionable for this game. The Horned Frogs are nasty good on defense even without Blake, as they returned 7 other defensive starters to a team that yielded just 4.1 yppl last season (to teams that would average 5.3 yppl against an average team). I rate the Texas offense at 0.8 yppl better than average, so they are at a disadvantage against the TCU defense. The Longhorns’ defense is strong up front, but the secondary continues to be an issue after allowing 6.2 yards per pass play last season and 5.9 yppp last week to a pathetic Arkansas State pass attack. My ratings favor Texas by 9 points if Blake does not play for TCU and by 7 ½ points if he does play. The line is fair and TCU applies to a solid 49-17-2 ATS game 2 situation. The Frogs are also 6-1 ATS as an underdog of 7 points or more under coach Gary Patterson and I like the idea of a great defensive team getting points. I don’t like the idea of a freshman quarterback playing his first road game in a tough environment, so I’ll consider TCU a Strong Opinion at +7 ½ points or more instead of making them a Best Bet.
Strong Opinion
FLORIDA INTL. 13 Maryland (-23.5) 30
04:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Florida International was winless last season, but they lost 5 games by 5 points or less, including a 10-14 loss at Maryland as a 20 point dog. The Panthers weren’t a completely horrible team, as they allowed just 4.5 yards per play for the season (against a schedule of teams that would combine to average 4.8 yppl against an average defense) and they are pretty good defensively this season too (I rate them about average on a national scale, which is very good for a Sun Belt team). Ignore the final score of last week’s 0-59 loss to Penn State, as 5 lost fumbles had a lot do to with how many points the Nittany Lions scored. The defense allowed a respectable 6.2 yppl in that game and Florida International played exactly how I thought they’d play from a yards per play perspective (I projected them to be out-gained 2.2 yppl to 6.4 yppl and they were out- gained 2.0 yppl to 6.2 yppl). It’s not likely that FIU is going to fumble the ball away 5 times again this week and there is no reason to downgrade their rating given that they played just as I thought they’d play (aside from the turnovers). Maryland is just slightly better than an average Division 1A team and my ratings favor the Terrapins by only 17 points - so it looks like the score of last week’s Florida International game with Penn State has affected the line more than it should have. Maryland is just 4-12 ATS as a favorite since 2004 and I’ll consider Florida International a Strong Opinion at +23 points or more in this game.
Strong Opinion
UNLV 14 Wisconsin (-25.0) 33
07:00 PM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Wisconsin’s players are probably thinking about the Las Vegas strip than they are about football this week, but UNLV has a young quarterback that could cause them some problems. Redshirt freshman Travis Dixon may not be a good passer quite yet (6.0 yards per pass play against a bad Utah State secondary), but he racked up 147 yards on 20 rushing plays to lead the Rebels to victory. Running quarterbacks are a great equalizer, as I’ve noticed over the years that scramblers run for similar yardage against good defensive teams as they do against bad defensive teams. The fact that Wisconsin has a good defense does not necessarily mean that they’ll be able to defend Dixon’s scrambles and Dixon is likely to scramble a lot given that there aren’t going to be that many open receivers against a good Badgers’ secondary. Wisconsin looked good against Washington State last week on the scoreboard (a 21 point win), but the stats (6.4 yards per play to 5.5 yppl for Washington State) were closer than the game. The match-up is pretty good for UNLV’s defense, as the Rebels have been pretty good defending the run in recent years (0.2 yprp better than average last season and they allowed just 3.7 yards per rushing play last week) and Wisconsin is happy to run the ball 40 or more times per game with their overrated rushing attack. The Badgers average only 4.6 yprp last year (against teams that would allow 4.8 yprp to an average team) and managed just 4.1 yprp last week. If Wisconsin gets up by a couple of scores then they’re likely to run the ball even more. This is a flat spot for Wisconsin and my ratings only favor the Badgers by 19 points. I’ll consider UNLV a Strong Opinion at +24 points or more.
Strong Opinion
COLORADO ST. 27 California (-14.0) 36
11:00 AM Pacific, 08-Sep-07
Cal is in a huge letdown spot after last week’s satisfying revenge win over Tennessee in Berkeley. The Bears were as good as expected offensively, averaging 7.4 yards per play but Cal’s defense was spotty. The Bears only allowed 5.2 yppl, but it was obvious to me (I was at the game) that Tennessee quarterback Eric Ainge could not throw an accurate pass more than 10 yards down the field with his broken pinky finger. The Bears should have been even better defensively with that being the case. Colorado State’s offense is well balanced now that workhorse back Kyle Bell is back after missing last season and quarterback Caleb Hanie is a better than average quarterback. The Rams should do some business against a Cal defense that I rate at just 0.2 yppl better than average. The problem for Colorado State will be slowing down Cal’s offense. I rate CSU as average defensively, so Cal will get their points, but the Bears will probably have a tough time extending the margin given the negative situation that they are in. Not only do we have the obvious letdown after last week’s big win, but Cal applies to a negative 30-80-3 ATS first road game situation and a negative 93-166-10 ATS road favorite letdown situation. The Bears certainly are prone to letdowns as they are just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 11 points or more, including 0-6 ATS more recently and 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 11 or more away from home. Unfortunately, my ratings favor California by 16 points and the line has dropped from 16 ½ down to 14 points and I’m not willing to give up that much line value to make the Rams a Best Bet. I’ll consider Colorado State a Strong Opinion at +14 points or more.
