Week 2 discussion
- Thread starter s--k
- Start date
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Phil Steele has UCF and Boise each at 4.5. So we can make UCF a 2 pt favorite over Boise on neutral field (subracting 4.5 from 6.5)
Boise should be favored by 21.5 neutral vs UTEP (subtracting 4.5 from the current 26).
So take off HF of 2 for UTEP, they -18.5 neutral vs Bethune Cookman.
Take off HF of 4.5 for UCF, they -35 neutral vs Bethune Cookman.
That means that UCF favoed by 16.5 neutral vs UTEP.
Why would Boise by favored by more over UTEP than UCF?
Ticketwindow
Pretty much a regular
Has anyone seen a line for Florida State and Jacksonville St?
Ticketwindow
Pretty much a regular
This may be my "shot their wad" game of the week if the number is large
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I haven’t seen it anywhere bro. I understand your thinking but not sure if that be the case especially if Milton gets to play qb, I think his emotions would lift the whole team. If not for him I’d totally be in same page.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I woulda guessed 3 tds. I made the mistake of losing money on Jacksonville st vs uab, I thought they had a ok offense but they couldn’t do anything in that game! Their defense played pretty well till they appeared to wear down which was understandable seeing how uab had around 40 rushing attempts. Jacksonville defense even put their offense in some good spots in 1st half and they still couldn’t manage any points?!?!? 35 pass attempts for 91 total yards!! I just can’t trust them and as I said I think if Milton plays FSU will continue to play with heart, he has enough for the entire team! I understand the thinking of shooting their load but could just be Norvell has them headed in the right direction!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I hate doing this but I’m going to anyways (lol), if noles can go for over 2bills on the ground vs the Irish gotta think they will gash Jacksonville st.
fun fact I’m sure ya’ll smarter than me knew already, Jacksonville st isn’t in Florida! I didn’t know that until the uab game! Lol.
fun fact I’m sure ya’ll smarter than me knew already, Jacksonville st isn’t in Florida! I didn’t know that until the uab game! Lol.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
meant to say this earlier but I missed ya’ll too!!! Good to be back talking bout this thing we do!!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
you got me buddy? I smell what you cooking and I like it!! I can’t stand boise qb so think I’m down with getting +26.5 with the miners! 27-28 would sure be nice since 26 is basically useless! Maybe it gets there by Friday, I’m sure boise take plenty of “square” money with only a few games on the board and them being the biggest name!
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Hmmmm paging @captjohn67
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Really like TCU at home vs. Cal. I think the latter is garbage-like.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I think that Boise line dropped from an early 27 if I recall. It's a big test for UTEP. People will either trust them to hang based off 2020/2021 improved play or still think they are trash and Boise blows them out. Looks like the spread reflects the later. UTEP 24 penalties called against them for like 250 yards first two games though. That's worrisome.
VolsWhiskeyMaker
Pretty much a regular
Placed the following seven team ML parlay. Any thoughts good or bad? It also has one NFL team on the card so my apologies in advance if that isn’t allowed here.
Tampa Bay
USC
Texas
Penn St
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Virginia Tech
Tampa Bay
USC
Texas
Penn St
Texas A&M
Notre Dame
Virginia Tech
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
I never tell anyone what to bet or try and talk someone off a bet. Texas is around -260 or so ML? That game is scary IMO. On the road especially.
VolsWhiskeyMaker
Pretty much a regular
I could be completely off but I think Texas has better players and I think Sark has a big advantage over Pittman coaching wise. I’ve been wrong many times before though.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
There's obvious a reason you like it. Don't let someone else talk you off it.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Don't get me wrong, I don't think either are worth all that much. Should be low scoring, both have good but not great defenses
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Jeez, yea that bad. They can’t afford to be putting themselves back behind the chains or to be giving boise extra 1st downs thanks to penalties.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
Reminder of a good follow (Thanks, BAR).
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I’m warming up to laying it with iowa state. Problem is the line got hit back up a bit
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im so torn on that game, I been back and forth. I was sure I was gonna be on iowa when kj told me look ahead was +6, then it came back 3.5 and I was like meh. Kinda felt like week 1 perception was driving but now it back to 4.5 and I dunno? I do feel like it could go either way so I certainly can’t say taking the points or ml a bad play, I don’t like the fact iowa seems so popular now cause it seems like a really tough game to me. Joe klatt said he thinks iowa gonna win and I respect his opinion. Prob be wise for me to just stay away but I know I wanna bet it! Lol
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
I’m regretting not buying to -3 when it was at 3.5. I just think it’s a cheap price based on last week. Think it’s gonna be tougher for iowa to score here
2daBank
Voice of Reason
yea I agree. Last weeks perception def impacted that line early for sure. Nothing that happened last week changed anything for me, isu being flat wasnt a shock, I thought iowa win was as much bout Hoosiers being overvalued/not living up to expectations. I liked +6 before they played those games. Didn’t start leaning isu till it came out 3.5. At 4.5 I dunno, I don’t expect either teams offense to be all that good so laying anything more than -3 not real appealing. I don’t exactly trust Purdy vs a d better than he sees in big12.
captjohn67
Pretty much a regular
One has to be careful after just one game, but holy cow my gamecocks looked horrible. Thought the coaching was worse than the effort to be honest. The run D is solid but the secondary flat out sucked. In the past I loved circling these games and waiting for a ton of points. I think that’s in the past now. Life is going to be tough after leaving the charmin soft OVC. I’ll be on Florida St. crystal ball says 45-6. I was thinking it would be -28+ fwiw.
Frank Costanza
Co-Inventor of the Man's Bra
I'm liking Iowa State more and more.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Something to think about in college and especially early in the year....after watching the V Tech game, K-State in Dallas (basically a home game) and FSU on Sunday night...it has been a long time since these teams have played on the road in front of big crowds. Penalties galore and missed assignments and overall looking like shit could be common for road teams. Going to be hitting some home dogs that should have strong crowds rocking. Arky...BYU...who else? Colorado game is at Mile High so that's off the list.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
agree with the theory overall but I don’t want any part of BYU in the holy war. I think Utah is gonna boat race them. Utes don’t feel like a team that be overwhelmed by the crowd, do they?
2daBank
Voice of Reason
im all over the place on that game. When kj told me iowa+6 as the look ahead I was drooling at chance to play them! Then the games got played and line came back out at -3.5 before jumping up to -4.5 and I wasn’t so sure. Really tough to lay points in a game like this imo. That said I do feel like isu gonna win, unfortunately laying anything more than a fg in a game I think 20 points wins is super tough!
Certainly not advocating this as a good idea but I’m seriously thinking isu in ml parlay but then doing a teaser with iowa+10.5! I despise teasing ncaa football (great weapon in nfl!) but the rare games that look to be similar to nfl with totals in mid 40s I think have some value. Playing both sides is even goofier than just the teaser but man both sides have appeal like that. If we right about 20 points being enough to get the W teasing iowa to +10.5 feels amazing! On flip side isu is beyond due to win this game and they have the players and weapons to do so! Just a matter of getting the ml partners right, then getting the teaser partners right as well. There actually several ncaa games this week that have incredible looking lines to tease. How can you not like adding a td to a few these teams that gonna be in slugfest?!??!
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Everybody except JaQuan Bailey came back for Iowa State. For the most part all these guys have lost to Iowa three straight times (excpet for younger guys). The guys who have been on this team since 2017, they lost by 1, they lost by 10, they lost by 3. Beating Iowa is the only hurdle they have, the only team they haven't beat. Beat OU - check. Beat Texas - check. Win New Year's Six Bowl - check. Play for Big Xll Title - check. Other than actually winning the Big Xll, this arguably is the most important game for Iowa State that all these dudes who have suffered 3 straight losses to the Hawkeyes. No doubt, Iowa wants this, all their coaches want it, everyone wants it bad.
I like the situation Iowa State finds itself in. ISU had all these dudes come back, Iowa didn't. Iowa lost 2 of their 3 best OL. Iowa lost their 2 best DL. All this talk this season about everyone coming back - that is only true figuratively because we have seen teams that in fact did not have guys come back and it hurts. Northwestern - stud LBs gone. UNC - play making WRs gone. San Jose St - really good WRs gone. Notre Dame - 4 best OL gone. West Virginia - 3 of 4 best players on D gone. Duke 3 defensive starters - drafted. BYU 3 best DL - gone. I've seen these teams not be as good out the gates this year, this year we keep getting told everyone came back. They didn't. So Iowa is down 4 of their 5 best OL/DL from last season (Alaric Jackson, Cole Banwart, Chauncey Golston, Daviyon Nixon). ISU lost 1 of their top OL / DL players. Maybe it doesn't end up mattering, but evidence to me, has seen the above mentioned teams have missed the guys who didn't come back. How much is Iowa going to miss theirs in this game when the team on the other side of the ball is so hungry to get over this hump of beating them? I think ISU controls the LOS in this game. I think ISU has the better QB in this game. ISU has better playmakers in this game.
I like the situation Iowa State finds itself in. ISU had all these dudes come back, Iowa didn't. Iowa lost 2 of their 3 best OL. Iowa lost their 2 best DL. All this talk this season about everyone coming back - that is only true figuratively because we have seen teams that in fact did not have guys come back and it hurts. Northwestern - stud LBs gone. UNC - play making WRs gone. San Jose St - really good WRs gone. Notre Dame - 4 best OL gone. West Virginia - 3 of 4 best players on D gone. Duke 3 defensive starters - drafted. BYU 3 best DL - gone. I've seen these teams not be as good out the gates this year, this year we keep getting told everyone came back. They didn't. So Iowa is down 4 of their 5 best OL/DL from last season (Alaric Jackson, Cole Banwart, Chauncey Golston, Daviyon Nixon). ISU lost 1 of their top OL / DL players. Maybe it doesn't end up mattering, but evidence to me, has seen the above mentioned teams have missed the guys who didn't come back. How much is Iowa going to miss theirs in this game when the team on the other side of the ball is so hungry to get over this hump of beating them? I think ISU controls the LOS in this game. I think ISU has the better QB in this game. ISU has better playmakers in this game.
Play2win
Mod by Monday Morning
Agree App StInitial thoughts.
1st look I think I love pitt, is that a sucker line tho? I gotta see how ppl are bettting that game as I’m unsure of vols perception? Lol
I wish wku/army wasn’t such a early kick, Mars got me on the wku over week 1 telling me bout the offense and transfers, was wanting to play their overs for next several weeks but army does what that do and early kick worries me.
I’d lean ducks if Thebodeaux could go but have no idea? He was in a boot after that early play he got rolled up on. Last I heard wasn’t serious tho, that kid is a one man wrecking crew on defense. He a game plan changer! Ducks offense not very impressive but neither is osu defense, you would think ducks will have success on the ground.
App st +8 vs canes is tempting. That a tough game coming off the bama ass kicking.
Uab team total under anyone? Lol. Or does Uga defense have a emotional letdown? Certainly possible.
Ncst another acc team I’m kinda high on going to a sec team. Have to look way more into that one, will ncst run game have success?
It gonna be hard for me not to play liberty!
I think horns beat ark. That a nuetral site game correct?
I sure don’t see a lot of dogs I like this week like there were in week 1
Iowa getting more than a fg very tempting.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
wow. Anyone have some eligibility? I’ve been waiting for a call from the ravens as they dropping like flies. Maybe I should be focused on playing qb for temple!! I gotta get back on the juice!! I could really sling it when I was juicing years back. Unfortunately I didn’t learn that till almost 30!! Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Is it just me or does this Rutgers line stink to holy hell? I havnt seen one person anywhere say they backing cuse, I’m certainly not saying I’m backing cuse, you can search all over web and nothing but “expert picks” taking Rutgers. Yet the damn thing basically a pick (well I’ve seen Rutgers starting to be small favs as I’m sure all the money coming in on them!). This one those games where it doesn’t matter if there no logical reason to back cuse, ya just hold your nose and do it or you do like me and stay far far away! I assume this a really big game for Rutgers season wins over for anyone who has it. I think they get there but this game would certainly help!!
Two Utes
Manual Toothbrushes FTW
Utah has won 5 straight in Provo and there are still tickets available for the game. This game is always closer than it should be but I think Utah's offense with Brewer will give the BYU defense fits.
Honestly, Utah's OL looked pretty pedestrian against Weber St but two starters were held out. I won't be shocked if it's a one score game but I do not think BYU will win. Jaren Hall will be confused by Utah's D and I expect at least two int's.
BiffTFinancial
Pretty much a regular
Lynch actually looked okay, at least on the ground, and that's probably ok against a team like Akron. If he goes, I'd expect Temple to go ground-heavy and Lynch being less reliable through the air may not be such a big deal. Probably makes me lean under 52'.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Would be big game for both Rutgers and Syracuse RSW. Rutgers 3.5, Syracuse 3
Looked at Mark MoneyMaker's newsletter thread:
PR (no homefield factored)
VSIN Rutgers 43 - Syracuse 40.5
Pointwise Rutgers 48- Syracuse 41
Kenny White Rutgers 104 - Syracuse 100.5
Sports Reporter - Rutgers 27-26
Gold Sheet Rutgers 27-24
Pointwise Syracuse 26-23
Power Picks Rutgers 28-25
Playbook Syracuse by 3
PowerSweep Rutgers by 3
Power Plays Rutgers 30-28
Winning Points Rutgers 31-28
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
That is what I thought too. My initial thought was that it might be a spot to take a shot on Akron, but after looking into it, while Akron could come in, I'd probably rather have Temple at less than TD and really out of the 4 side / total combos, I'd probably rather be on the Under if I had to choose just one. Temple D should matchup well and I don't think Akron would be overwhelmed like they sometimes are on that side of the ball. Two QBs that are dangerous with their legs will be an X factor.
