Week 2 Discussion

But Peyton is shit. Buncha people think that's not so, that he can still be Peyton at a moment's notice. Maybe, but I watched this Chief's defense make Brady look like Luke McCown in primetime on national tv last year.
 
All I am is saying is my rule of thumb is not to go against him in prime time. The numbers don't lie. Good luck
 
more action is on the chiefs.... everyone thinks peyton is in his last days... he has nothing left....


look at this

Sports Insights @SportsInsights Peyton Manning's odds to retire after this season

August 25: +105 (CRIS)
Current: -300 (Bovada)

Majority of action will be on the Doncos ML.

As you pointed out, 'the numbers don't lie' regarding Peyton on primetime and vs KC in his career.
 
<iframe width="560" height="315" src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/7Uvn7WlMd5o" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>
 
I would appreciate it if somebody else can post blinds I am on my phone.

eagles open at -3.... Pound the shit out of it

i still don't get why the Eagles are supposedly good, but separately welcome to the biggest overreaction week of the year
 
if this was the same Peyton I might agree with you. Look at him. HE"S NOT THE SAME PLAYER.

Football is the ultimate team sport.

Your offensive line/running backs arent productive = your quarterback not getting optimal looks etc etc..... you guys are nuts if you think Peyton is done and isnt capable of putting up 4 TDs... he played fine against baltimore... the running game and o line just sucked ass... it happens... don't overreact... its a new offense...
 
It's not overreaction though, it's just reaction to a player that can't throw a 20 yard pass anymore. At all. Watch the game, watch his last six games. Quit under-reacting. 10-14 points for Denver Thursday night.
 
They actually did a breakdown on NFL network on Peyton and he missed some WIDE open receivers with no pressure on him. And this isn't something that just came along. It was at the end of last year's regular season and into the playoffs where Andrew Luck and them came into Denver and bounced them. Again, Peyton hasn't just started sucking, he's been playing like shit for awhile.
 
Rams look like a trap but thats a trap im willing to fall into

so much bad juju around the WAS locker room, but this is the Rams we're talking about backing on the road as a favorite

Think Mariota will be able to repeat his performance?

heard they ran some funky stuff that TB didn't expect with the UO style zone reads, anybody?

Giants played pretty solid overall.... I think that's lost in the shenanigans that took place. Atlanta played well at home. As usual..... Will their road play be different this year? Huge huge huge game for the giants.

Love the steelers with the niners flying out east after a MNF game for an early start on the east coast. The Vikings made them look better than they are. They'll get crushed in Pitt IMO.

Chargers also flying east for an early start in cincy. Lean cincy

agree with all of this

Peyton in prime time.... Does that angle still hold true? KC is the better overall team IMO

DEN has to be the most likely team to score points, even with the great atmosphere that will certainly be there. I'm leaning to the points, even if it's square as hell

saints -10 LOLOLOL

thought Jameis would be a stud in the NFL, but did not see a second of that game last week and from reading the box score it did not sound good at all. Agree that NO laying that much is insane

Damn Titans getting all kind of love.. Mariota going have some real bad games this year, it's bound to happen.

Browns should be a great play except for Johnny, so maybe Browns

not sure they can be played in anything besides contests with the current QB situation

I'm really liking this card...

Thoughts on the Bills guys?

Think Bills came out playing tough for Rexy & Indy laid an egg as they often do on the road. Buff was picked to be last in their division by the books (or maybe 3rd) & after one week we're supposed to think they should be a pick to NE? NE D is still sketchy at best but I'm not drinking the Buffalo Kool-Aid. I got Pats -1 on Bovada.

BUF was only +1 at home in October last year in this one? I don't seem to remember that and feel like I would because it was so low, but then NE was -4 at home when I'm almost certain the game didn't matter so there was the debate whether Bellichick would sit his starters or not. I think the -4 indicated that the theory was that he'd sit the big guns, but you never know with BB so the books seemed to take a cautious approach

The table below displays ATS records for Pacific Time Zone teams, coming off an ATS victory in their most recent game, dating back to 2005:
[TABLE="class: tablepress tablepress-id-31, width: 300"]
<tbody>[TR="class: row-1 odd"]
[TH="class: column-1, bgcolor: #D9EDF7"]GAME TIME ZONE[/TH]
[TH="class: column-2, bgcolor: #D9EDF7"]ATS RECORD[/TH]
[TH="class: column-3, bgcolor: #D9EDF7"]ATS WIN RATE[/TH]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-2 even"]
[TD="class: column-1, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Mountain[/TD]
[TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]6-8[/TD]
[TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]42.9%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-3 odd"]
[TD="class: column-1, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]Central[/TD]
[TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]16-26[/TD]
[TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #F9F9F9"]38.1%[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: row-4 even"]
[TD="class: column-1, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]Eastern[/TD]
[TD="class: column-2, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]16-38[/TD]
[TD="class: column-3, bgcolor: #FFFFFF"]29.6%[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]
For the record, this added wrinkle is not related to the teams’ actual travel, but is instead a reflection of betting market overreaction. The betting public tends to focus on recent results and will back teams that covered the spread in their latest game. In turn, oddsmakers react by shading lines, forcing bettors who like these teams to take them at bad numbers.

SD, SF fit this

If Tennessee are legit, it will take 3 consecutive games of them proving so before lines will adjust...it happens, but they were considered such shit before the season that anyone with a pulse wouldn't adjust off one game...win at Cleveland then the next week, you get to see how the adjustments are made

Before last weekend this is Cleveland -6 I think, be an entertaining game to see how JFF and Marcus perform, wouldn't bet shit on it personally

how do you feel about this now KJ? I think the Super Contest has it 1 and to me that was a major overreaction so the 6 sounds insane, but that may have been with CLE QB injury stuff as I'm not caught up on what the deal is there just yet

Phi/Dallas
road team is 8-2 SU L10
underdog is 8-2 ATS L10

i like DAL and think their best strength was always running the ball even with Dez, but not having him as a threat is a really big problem. Not sure if I'll jump in here because I'm really worried his absence will have the AJ Green effect on DAL like it did/does on the CIN offense when he's out because they become absolutely anemic

Chiefs have lost about a million in a row to Denver....I know Manning looked bad last week but Denver D is legit. Winds will be 20+ mph on Thursday night so KC's short passing game should work well. Arrowhead will be rocking but Denver +3 even money might be tough to pass up given Manning's owning of the Chiefs.

i was originally looking to back KC here, but think this is a class war and if there's one team you'd trust to score it'd be Peyton by a landslide. The three will be very tempting for me with DEN, though it probably would be best to just stay far away

during the den game i believe i heard them mention balty would not be flying home and instead staying in cali all week. cant say 100% but that is what i heard.

so smart

Can anybody make a case for Washington? It baffles me that this line is not over a touchdown

major let-down, StL can't be expected to get another special teams TD and lost 34-7 in KC last year the week after beating SEA. Gotta prefer Morris to Cunningham/Mason and there aren't many weapons in that StL offense making the QB advantage (which I don't think is huge) less important

what about Seattle??

can't imagine they're changing any sort of travel plan like BAL
 
Everywhere I look, people battle on which side is better between DEN/KC...What about the total? Both of these defenses are great and if winds are to be 20+, then this game might be a long tussle. I'm probably going under.
 
Football is the ultimate team sport.

Your offensive line/running backs arent productive = your quarterback not getting optimal looks etc etc..... you guys are nuts if you think Peyton is done and isnt capable of putting up 4 TDs... he played fine against baltimore... the running game and o line just sucked ass... it happens... don't overreact... its a new offense...

Guess some folks just need to find out the hard way.
 
how do you feel about this now KJ? I think the Super Contest has it 1 and to me that was a major overreaction so the 6 sounds insane, but that may have been with CLE QB injury stuff as I'm not caught up on what the deal is there just yet

I wouldn't bet it at all. I think Tennessee might be MUCH better than expected, but not falling into the trap of one game....think Cleveland can lose this just as easily as Tenn winning it even before breaking anything down. Tbh I haven't a clue how good Marcus is but look forward to finding out. Cleveland advantage on defense and OLine can't be discounted.
 
what about Seattle??

pretty hard to agree with this team getting more than a FG in any place. GB should have won the NFC Championship game in SEA, but that certainly can't help them here? I'm not too afraid of the GB defense, but conversely I would be with SEA's especially giving them any sort of points (not to mention the current 4 that's out there at a few spots)

It was only 10 months ago he came to KC and wrecked our shit and he didn't even do much...short passes and run game tho KC run D definitely better w/ Devito and DJ in there.

everyone has been all over KC's defense since the signing period, but I don't see how they can keep up if DEN does manage to score? Macklin seems like a guy Smith won't be able to use much because that's not how he is, which makes me think DEN should key on Kelce and Charles so would you be confident that Smith could beat Peyton through the air even if he had single coverage outside?

And they're giving him 3 points. What a steal !

more action is on the chiefs.... everyone thinks peyton is in his last days... he has nothing left....


look at this

Sports Insights @SportsInsights Peyton Manning's odds to retire after this season

August 25: +105 (CRIS)
Current: -300 (Bovada)

agree about everyone thinking Peyton is going to die in the next month or so, almost think DEN has fallen out of favor and this line hitting 3 trending towards 3.5 only confirms that notion in my head

But Peyton is shit. Buncha people think that's not so, that he can still be Peyton at a moment's notice. Maybe, but I watched this Chief's defense make Brady look like Luke McCown in primetime on national tv last year.

He's definitely not the same, true, but I have a feeling even the biggest Peyton hater would expect DEN to pull one out late before KC does and you're getting the FG insurance

So the eagles are not on ur radar? Or not a lean?

i'd be happy to send you all my social media names so you can follow me on each platform if you'd like
 
Peyton can't throw a 20 yard pass, sorry, it's really not Peyton Manning any more as much as you want it to be
 
I'll take it a step further and say Denver finish behind Oakland this year and battle SD for last in the AFC West. Good luck scoring on KC at Arrowhead in prime time with a noodle arm, no running game and an excuse to just get out.
 
I'll take it a step further and say Denver finish behind Oakland this year and battle SD for last in the AFC West. Good luck scoring on KC at Arrowhead in prime time with a noodle arm, no running game and an excuse to just get out.

damn, that'd be quite a call. You think the proud Broncos would tap out in Week 2 against a team they've steamrolled over the years? That just doesn't seem to be the way a team would do it

Parts of me still would rather have Peyton's noodle arm than Alex Smith's inability to stretch the field though, because as we have it I got a massive 3-point headstart in what should be a low-scoring, defensive game
 
damn, that'd be quite a call. You think the proud Broncos would tap out in Week 2 against a team they've steamrolled over the years? That just doesn't seem to be the way a team would do it

Parts of me still would rather have Peyton's noodle arm than Alex Smith's inability to stretch the field though, because as we have it I got a massive 3-point headstart in what should be a low-scoring, defensive game

I don't think tapping out is their call, think this is the most regressed team in the NFL and think I'd rather have Alex Smith than Peyton Manning, the KC defense is a much better unit than the Denver defense as well. I fucking hate the Chiefs with a passion by the way so this kills me...but I am tapping out to a degree
 
I don't think tapping out is their call, think this is the most regressed team in the NFL and think I'd rather have Alex Smith than Peyton Manning, the KC defense is a much better unit than the Denver defense as well. I fucking hate the Chiefs with a passion by the way so this kills me...but I am tapping out to a degree

Agree. Peyton got violated by that moon dancing Andy Luck in his own home and will never recover.
 
Let's not forget it was 40 degrees in the Colts game. Pretty well noted how much Peyton struggles in the cold.
 
Let's not forget it was 40 degrees in the Colts game. Pretty well noted how much Peyton struggles in the cold.

His struggles in the cold are well documented, but he sucked ass down the stretch last year because he has no zip on the ball, not because of the cold. Not that he ever did, but the ducks are getting more wobbly off his fingers. Christ, he was wearing a glove on his throwing hand in 40 degree weather. It's not like it was -15 degrees. It's no secret that DEN will be running the ball more. Peyton is close to being relegated to managing the game. It's like watching a punch-drunk fighter at the end of his reign.
 
He uses the glove for grip not to fight the cold I believe
watched a bit of the game, everyone from the Bronco's camp was saying that Peyton with the glove looked "normal" compared to no glove Peyton in the pre-season where he looked crap
 
Last week manning averaged 4.4 yards per completion. The last several years that number has been 8 ypc. This is a guy who should have retired after last season. If you watch him in interviews he is even acting like it. He is a different guy. This is a QB who should be working the middle of the field because his arm is a noodle and he can't hit the deep out anymore. Instead the Broncos let his tight end walk in the offseason and are forcing him to use the outside of the field. None of this makes any sense. This line is screaming for people to take the Broncos because hey, it's manning we are talking about right? The guy might still have one or two good performances in him just based on his brain alone but tonight I think we are going to see on national TV that his legs and his arm are finished.
 
He uses the glove for grip not to fight the cold I believe

I'm fairly certain that he started using the glove in the cold only over the past couple years. Partly because he now plays in Denver and partly, coincidentally, since he had the surgery on his neck. He's clearly having more trouble gripping the ball in cold weather since that injury.

The drop in velocity on his throws is alarming. Think of QB's that played into their twilight (Favre is a good recent example). He barely lost any velocity on his throws near the end.
 
Agree that the drop in velocity is a huge concern, but I thought his quad problem towards the end of last year was at least a factor in that because he wasn't really able to step into his throws.

If that was debunked and I missed it, please refute, but I would consider him healthy until I hear differently and would be very cautious calling that team dead. Great squads don't die that quickly and calling for it early is a good way to lose a bet
 
I think Peyton might have lost some feeling in his finger tips? I heard that somewhere. That's very serious if true

The Broncos defense is sick. I think Wade is a defensive genius. The RBs on the Broncos are going to have to be big tonight. I'm on the Broncos TT over 19 -110
 
All this talk about Peyton being finished on ESPN and such makes me think he probably has a better showing tonight. Just seems to always happen.
 
Think this is gonna be an ugly low scoring game tonight with the Chiefs winning late

(which means itll be a denver blowout)
 
Yes the talk on ESPN that no one watches will ultimately dictate this game tonight, talk about clouding judgment ugh
 
Best unit on the field tonight should be the KC defense and it really shouldn't be that close, agree with low scoring game but only concern would be KC putting up a number to beat the under...but prefer under
 
Do you not think public perception goes into making lines? ESPN is the public perception like it or not

Of course. It should be higher.

I defer my "ESPN" opinions to actual fans of the team, who read, write, watch, breathe Denver football. Tend to know a few in these parts because, well, there are a ton of em around here...depression has begun setting in and everyone knows why, except those that are holding on by a thread that Peyton will re learn how to throw a forward pass.
 
Oh I fully get that but I dont really care about how fans feel. I do care that Peyton is hearing constant chatter about how he's done. The broncos dont have a chance with him behind center. The team is still capable and Peyton could adjust to score points. It's not all about the 40 yard bombs. We shall see tonight.
 
Yes the talk on ESPN that no one watches will ultimately dictate this game tonight, talk about clouding judgment ugh

You can word it that way which is not even close to what I said. Nonetheless we had a similar situation last year where Brady was called finished.
 
That's fine, although the people I actually give credence to are pretty objective folks, not just fanatics...I really believe the unit the actually gets to determine how the game goes is the KC defense, not Peyton and how hurt his feelings are. If a motivated KC defense shows up at Arrowhead in prime time (and last year that crowd set that ridiculous Guiness record for crowd noise, kinda stupid but you get my point) I don't think the Denver offense will get to determine anything.
 
You can word it that way which is not even close to what I said. Nonetheless we had a similar situation last year where Brady was called finished.

Not just in response to you, quite honestly I don't know what the ESPN people are even saying.
 
I don't think a team with Peyton, CJ, Ronnie, Thomas, Sanders etc scoring 20 points is that far fetch. Peyton is probably somewhere between what he's shown last week and what he was prior to week 14 last season.
 
Side note I basically hate the quality of play on Thursday nights in general but that ship has sailed and we have to endure it going forward.
 
I'm not too worried about arrowhead.

May pay for it, but 76,416 can't affect a 17-year HOFer like 110 does to an 18-year-old. Feel like the MNF blowout was a lot of things that won't happen again tonight
 
@SportsInsights: Alex Smith is the most profitable Under QB on Thursdays while Peyton Manning is the least profitable Under QB on Thursdays (via @Bet_Labs).
 
Back
Top