Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I really like the Bengals of those 3 you listed. The most motivation- playing spoiler to a divisional opponent, nobody gives them a shot. PLaymakers in Higgins/Boyd and Bernard is playing well.
Week 17 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
Under Marrone the Jags have a strong history finishing the regular season especially at home. In 2016 home finale they throttled Titans 38-17. In 2017 home finale, they beat Houston 45-7. 2018 home finale was a 16-13 loss to Washington. 2019 home finale was a 38-20 win vs Indy.
A possible distraction could be the rumors circulating about Doug Marrone's future. But the Jags vociferously denied any speculation that he'll be fired after the game. So I think that helps the players stay focused on the game. While they have the number one pick wrapped up, i'm not sure that really changes anything because this team was already giving effort. The scoreline against the Bears is a bit deceiving...Glennon interceptions in Jax territory really stretched out the lead for Chicago. Jax was competitive in that game for a while. The Jags have repeatedly been close against superior teams. They've been manhandled by others...especially by physical teams that like to control clock by running the ball. They have exploited a beat-up Jax d-line with lots of turnover that, like last year, cannot contain a good ground game. It's not just teams that like to run...Jax was able to zero in on Dalvin Cook with some success in regulation. It's teams with physical run-blocking and bruising running backs.
The offense is already really bad...now also missing Chark and the starting running back. Hard for any continuity in the offense when the quarterbacks keep rotating. So I imagine if you like the Jags you probably also like the under.
Brewers888
Potential 2028 V.P. Selection
I watched a lot of that Jags game last week and they were anything but competitive. No clue what that means in this meaningless game for them but they were outmatched big time last week and couldn’t stop a bad Bears offense from doing whatever they wanted.
Like the Giants as well.
Liked Skins better at 2.5 vs Eagles starters, than 3.5 with Eagles out. Not sure what number you have.
Lean Denver, and Rams intrigue me. If we all think Goff is so bad and just a McVay robot, why do we think he’s 6 points better than a backup McVay robot?
Yeah you might remember this happening somewhat recently with sk. My inbox isn't full..I was a good citizen and left all my conversations when you/the partners asked us to.
CPA-hole
Good night, Duke, and sweet dreams!
So does Tampa play balls out to lock up the 5 seed and play the NFC East winner? The Falcons keep trying every week. Raheem just interviewed for the job so you know he is going to try what he can to win.
Seems like a game the Falcons could win? Falcons dominated the game 2 weeks ago at half and then imploded as only the Falcons can.
Seems like a game the Falcons could win? Falcons dominated the game 2 weeks ago at half and then imploded as only the Falcons can.
Hmmmm
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Lex, there's a lot going on in this matchup. We've got the unknown at QB. However like you mentioned, Wolford could be a blessing in disguise. He's a mobile QB which works perfect for the misdirection McVay likes to run. The other key factor is Arizona is 1 of the worst teams in the NFL getting pressure and sacking the QB. Rams olinemen have matched up well vs them.
If Akers isn't effective, Malcom Brown is plenty good enough to take on 20-25 carries for 100+. Kupp being out isn't that big of a factor because there's very good depth with Jefferson.
Defensively the Rams DL has won this matchup. If Murray isn't healthy even better. This defense is screaming to McVay not to let this offense lose this game.
Not sure this is a game to wager on because of the insertion of Wolford. The 1st thing that came to mind when I heard Goff was out was the 1990 Giants. Phil Simms got hurt when the Giants were 11-0 I believe. Jeff Hostetler came in and was downright awful in the beginning but the Giants had that D. They dummied down the offense and committed to pounding the rock with OJ Anderson and relying on their D. Hostetler became a misdirection rollout QB. He was more mobile than Simms. Everything was high percentage throws mostly to the TE's. They subsequently won by shortening games and winning in the teens. Its a formula that is tough to consistently win with because every game is close but I believe that's what we'll see Sunday vs Arizona and beyond.
McVay didn't throw deep with Goff and I find it difficult to believe he's going to take chances with Wolford.
The total is 41 5. That seems high to me. 6 TDs??? Where, with who?
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Why would the Pats be -3??? Jets are playing well and Pats just have no motivation. That line is off to me.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I believe the league tries to get the better matchups on Sunday. If I'm the NFL Saints are an Automatic Sunday game
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Sat night in prime time and Sun afternoon are the big pulls. Not sure how they're doing it this year with 6 games the first weekend.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Is Latavious Murray out too?
cogenman
Raider Nation for Life
Never mind I'm seeing Latavious out with covid now.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Think I like under there
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
NFL Playoff Schedule 2020-21: NFC & AFC Start Dates, Times | Heavy.com
So early, middle, late both days, same times. Prime time games will be for those who deliver the ratings so very likely Steelers will get one of them, hard to make a case for anyone else unless GB ends up the 2 seed, so maybe it's the Saints I guess but they don't have much national appeal really. Of course the NFC East winner will have the name brand but not sure if they want to put that in prime time...guess if it's Buccos v Wash/NYG/Dallas there's a story
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
I would take the +2-110 that's everywhere juuuust in case it's a low scoring close ending. Bass has been really solid kicking and if the Bills D does give Tua problems it could be a field position type game. Fwiw i think Miami ats, ml & tt over all hit. Gaskin prop will soar over whatever the line.
Could be a potentially great day to 2ndh bet
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
ML dogs I'm thinking of playing
Texans +295 Watson & Watt alone make this tempting. Titans D has been reeling, Watson makes plays. Admittedly wouldn't be surprised to see 21-0 Titans after 1 quarter either. I just think the line is a bit high and nearly 3 to 1 on likely Watt's last game vs a divisional opponent?
Bengals +600 haven't seen not 1 ml wager on the Bengals around and they have been playing good ball. Another divisional clash where all the pressure is on the Ravens to shine. Would be absolutely insane to see the Ravens blow it but someone's getting screwed... thought I'd be able to get +700 though might go up.
SF- I have to at least consider it, but I don't love it. Good coaching, Kittles back and a run game. I just have a feeling the Hawks may want to make a statement.
Rams- That D +130. No Kirk now either this is shaping up to be a war.
Broncos +130- looks like a sucker bet but I'm playing the Broncos. Lock should be able to shine vs that defense and cause all kinds of off season drama. Vegas needs to move on from Carr and Gruden
Texans +295 Watson & Watt alone make this tempting. Titans D has been reeling, Watson makes plays. Admittedly wouldn't be surprised to see 21-0 Titans after 1 quarter either. I just think the line is a bit high and nearly 3 to 1 on likely Watt's last game vs a divisional opponent?
Bengals +600 haven't seen not 1 ml wager on the Bengals around and they have been playing good ball. Another divisional clash where all the pressure is on the Ravens to shine. Would be absolutely insane to see the Ravens blow it but someone's getting screwed... thought I'd be able to get +700 though might go up.
SF- I have to at least consider it, but I don't love it. Good coaching, Kittles back and a run game. I just have a feeling the Hawks may want to make a statement.
Rams- That D +130. No Kirk now either this is shaping up to be a war.
Broncos +130- looks like a sucker bet but I'm playing the Broncos. Lock should be able to shine vs that defense and cause all kinds of off season drama. Vegas needs to move on from Carr and Gruden
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
My guess is the books liability. If they drop Pats below 3 I suspect they get hammered with Pats money. I agree with you though. As a lifelong Pats fan I haven't seen them look as disinterested in a game as a couple weeks ago & I didn't even watch Monday but appeared to be even worse. They want the season over & how badly would the Jets love to beat them in NE no less?
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
How about the Pats positioning themselves to move up in the draft to land Zach Wilson?
Big daddy naught
Pretty much a regular
I like the jets. Throw out the Seattle game abs they’ve won or been competitive. Should have won the earlier meeting. Think they don’t out w more fire than pats do tbh
McVay 7-0 SU and ATS vs Arizona
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Typically agree, but Tomlin stinks in week 17
so do the Browns
i’m by no means suggesting a Steelers victory, although it would not surprise me in the slightest bit. That being said, 10 points is just way too much in this league for a team like the Browns.
Lexington 125
I cap it all, and I cap it well.
Bills inactives- No hughes, Addison or Tre White defensively. They called up Antonio Williams at rb to keep Taiwan Jones healthy for special teams. The writing is on the wall guys if Miami doesn't win I'd be shocked. You're going to see Barkley handing off to Williams a bunch.
Fins are now favored by 3, Skins now by almost a touchdown. Chargers by 6.
Gandolf
Leader of the Van Buren Boys
I think the AFC wildcard teams hold serve today, leaving Tenn or Ind out depending on their games.
I think Arizona with Murray should be better than Wolford & Sons. Pack beat Bears again, so Bears stay home, AZ #6, LAR #7 based on division record.
AFC First round matchups: Cle at Buf, Balt at Pitt, Mia @ AFC South Winner
NFC First round matchup: LAR at NO, Ari at Sea, Tam @ NFC East Winner
Guessing at schedule:
1:00 pm Sat (ESPN) - Mia @ AFC South Winner - its tradition at this point. AFC South gets the opener.
4:40 pm Sat (CBS) - Ari @ Sea - This is an oddball game, its sorta appealing but not all that much. Not good enough for prime time and Fox has the 1:00 pm on Sunday, so this falls in here.
8:15 pm Sat (NBC) - LAR @ NO - 2nd best game on the card and a rematch of that famous NFC Championship game. Could flip to Sun 1:00 pm if Dallas or NYG wins the East.
1:00 pm Sun (FOX) - Tam @ Wash - Fox needs an NFC game, and the league will cut WFT a break if they get in by not giving the Sun night game a short week. If its Tam @ NYG or Dallas, move this baby to Sat night NBC and put LAR at NO in here.
4:40 pm Sun (CBS) - Cle @ Buf - CBS needs an AFC game, and this is the next best left
8:00 pm Sun (NBC) - Bal @ Pit - Tell me NBC doesn't get back the Thanksgiving night game they lost, I dare ya
I think Arizona with Murray should be better than Wolford & Sons. Pack beat Bears again, so Bears stay home, AZ #6, LAR #7 based on division record.
AFC First round matchups: Cle at Buf, Balt at Pitt, Mia @ AFC South Winner
NFC First round matchup: LAR at NO, Ari at Sea, Tam @ NFC East Winner
Guessing at schedule:
1:00 pm Sat (ESPN) - Mia @ AFC South Winner - its tradition at this point. AFC South gets the opener.
4:40 pm Sat (CBS) - Ari @ Sea - This is an oddball game, its sorta appealing but not all that much. Not good enough for prime time and Fox has the 1:00 pm on Sunday, so this falls in here.
8:15 pm Sat (NBC) - LAR @ NO - 2nd best game on the card and a rematch of that famous NFC Championship game. Could flip to Sun 1:00 pm if Dallas or NYG wins the East.
1:00 pm Sun (FOX) - Tam @ Wash - Fox needs an NFC game, and the league will cut WFT a break if they get in by not giving the Sun night game a short week. If its Tam @ NYG or Dallas, move this baby to Sat night NBC and put LAR at NO in here.
4:40 pm Sun (CBS) - Cle @ Buf - CBS needs an AFC game, and this is the next best left
8:00 pm Sun (NBC) - Bal @ Pit - Tell me NBC doesn't get back the Thanksgiving night game they lost, I dare ya
