Week 16 NFL
- Thread starter SportsNut
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S
Supersav
Guest
come on skins!!
S
Supersav
Guest
skins have the ball have faith
Rule #1 of Sports Handicapping BAD LINES always LOSE...
Jags looked like they had a shot....and have the ball at midfield and fumble...
STL lines up for a FG and misses...
Think about it....
How is Pitt -4 when they lose 27-0 at Balt as +3...public perception inflates lines..
How is Jax -3 -120 when Taylor is OUT and versus and equally mighty Colts team were a PK....public perception expects jags to bounce back..
How is NYG minus -3 when it was +3 to the Boys who NO just beat..in Dallas as only +7..??
How is Cle favored by 3 and worse moves to -3.5...
How is Buffalo -4.5 then -5.5 when they were both just +1 to common opponent Hou and was only -1 to Miami.....
How is Indy -9 on the road after losing 3 straight away...
Public (MIS)Perception is what creates value in lines.......I jumped the GUN making my decisions on all marginal lines and worse made all big plays....and to have such a great feel for the card and walk away a loser is simply irrating....Only cause Iobviously know better....
Jags looked like they had a shot....and have the ball at midfield and fumble...
STL lines up for a FG and misses...
Think about it....
How is Pitt -4 when they lose 27-0 at Balt as +3...public perception inflates lines..
How is Jax -3 -120 when Taylor is OUT and versus and equally mighty Colts team were a PK....public perception expects jags to bounce back..
How is NYG minus -3 when it was +3 to the Boys who NO just beat..in Dallas as only +7..??
How is Cle favored by 3 and worse moves to -3.5...
How is Buffalo -4.5 then -5.5 when they were both just +1 to common opponent Hou and was only -1 to Miami.....
How is Indy -9 on the road after losing 3 straight away...
Public (MIS)Perception is what creates value in lines.......I jumped the GUN making my decisions on all marginal lines and worse made all big plays....and to have such a great feel for the card and walk away a loser is simply irrating....Only cause Iobviously know better....
Supersav said:
I have some faith...in that Bad lines always lose...Rams shouldnt have been favored by 2 or 2.5 here ...
See I said that after STL had 2 long completions and the ball at the 50...
then I hit submit and Jackson ran for 24 ayrds....it doesnt take much to guess what was gonna happen next but I was somewhat suprised Wilkins missed...although the same thing happened at the end of the Dallas game which was a bad line @ +3...
So I have some faith.....
but it looks like Wash wil be the only bad line that losses....but I guess after winning in NO SU maybe that I am simply wrong here...
S
Supersav
Guest
me too
S
Supersav
Guest
get it back on the seahawks and broncos
I really dont caught up in so much in 1 day...probably +200 units in the NFL so 15 or 20 dont concern me...just hate bad decisions....I am gonna lose but I rather it be cause of bad handicapping...not bad decision making..alot of work and even a FLAT day is a losing day....
Joe Public
Gabibbo's Finest
Well, yeah, I did warn you, but not enough to actually bet the Browns or anything.
That team's just so tough right now, they've got nothing left. Romeo also sat Braylon to start the game for disciplinary reasons. They're really, really trying to find themselves.
And watch it happen next week in Houston just in time for the offseason.
That team's just so tough right now, they've got nothing left. Romeo also sat Braylon to start the game for disciplinary reasons. They're really, really trying to find themselves.
And watch it happen next week in Houston just in time for the offseason.
Joe Public said:
Nah....they both suck...2 bad teams shouldnt have a line move...if I simply dont make my decisions till the final half hour instead of having a side in my head and jumping the gun......the real sharp SportsNut would have been on the other side of the 4 plays or worst case passed on them....leaving my only side loss as Wash which happened in OT...even the total I lost was one I locked in on Monday!
Its justs annoying......I cant explain how good of feel I have feel the NFL and down -2 units...uhhhh...
I over thought good deal of plays today....I'll get it right though....hopefully the season wont be over.....
That Braylon thing was a blinking SIGN stay the fuck away! Merry XMas Joe!!! We still have Monday!
Kmacc
Air Raid Returns!
understand the frustration of today I struggled to find a reason why I made some of the plays I did after the fact but bounced back with a good 4 o clock session then hit up hawaii tonight so lets carry a little mo into tomorrow any early thoughts?
My initial leans would be Philly +7 and under 48, Jets +3 why not dogs 11-1 today and 12-2 on the week
My initial leans would be Philly +7 and under 48, Jets +3 why not dogs 11-1 today and 12-2 on the week
Kmacc said:
I really trying to get a handle on these games at the moment...I get So pissed because I go 7-5 on sides as I said from early on there were 4 line moves that worried cause they really should have been moving south if anything...well obviously if I stay way I am 7-1 if stay objective and wait till 12:30 with an open mind I can tell you I would see the value in the dog...that would be 11-1...I have a perfectionist complex..worse is I know I know better then to make thses mistakes and it sux really having a tight feel on something and not taking advantage.... Its all about decision making...
I guess I wil start a new thread for Monday....
Philly real tough spot playing 3rd straight divisional away game..4th in 5 away. Dallas has payback in mind and also were embarrassed last home game....The total is tough cause DAL cant stop anyone and if thats the case it must be shootout for DA to win..luckily Garcia doesnt real have the arm to beat them deep consistently....now I actually thinka TD is fair...
With the Miami and NYJ game screams DEFENSE.....Miami loses Booker and gains Brown....this team is just so hard to beat IMO at home....off being shutout away and returning home...wonder how those teams have bounced back...IMO the jets didnt look so good versus Miami the 1st time and that was the Bad Dolphins...
Gonna start a Monday thread soon...
Gorgolon Lives
The Reverend of CTG
Being from Philly, THROW OUT their past game. 2 totally different teams with 2 totally different QB's. Philly has some momentum right now going into this game. I think our vets pull this out. Look for big games from B Dawk and the Eagles secondary once again.
GL man!
GL man!
