Week 16 NFL

ontime23 said:
sportnut,

What's your top 1pm games tomm.? I'm trying to narrow my plays down and compare them with you.


Also, Washington do you feel that they're going to be in a let down after playing there ass off and pulling off the upset last week?

SU a pool question I like N.O. to beat NYG at home, how do you feel about this game?

Another question is the Tenn/Buff game who do you like SU here? Same questions for the AZ/SF and NYJ/MIA games. I would also like some input on cincy/denver SU and ATS?
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I would say as of now they are all basically equal at 1 PM...but since I tend to look at this as a market sometimes line moves will change my feelings...like maybe I overvalued or undervalued someone...so sometimes I cant say for sure till shortly before gametime...

i do like the Aints! With the Buffs and Titans have to go with the home team..I have this "logic" that a team on any streak good or bad once it has a game it was obviously lucky to win or lose depnding on the streak it comes to end next game...to me Tenny winning at home was almsot a miracle looking at how they played...tmrw the "universe"s should balance itself...thats basically me making fun of my logic but I do believe that...everything tends to balance out...

Like The Cards , even with Ronnie Brown coming back the fact Booker is OUT is concerning. I think Miami off a shutout is tough to fade so I am really back and forth on this game...as of this moment slight lean towards Miami bouncing back ...like Cincy but the Palmer shoulder injury talk has me concerned.......bengals looked like ass but they were only +3 to Indy so +3 to inconsistent DEN seems off.....weather...??

Whatever I missed should be contained in the past 15 or so posts I made in here.....BOL
 
4 PM

Arizona +4 or better (XLarge) ML +183 (Small)

Sorry , the 49ers as chalk...? What better spot to fade a team then off a win as DD dog then home chalk the next week...they lose there best WR in Bryant.....Ari steadily improving with Leinart...SF weak secondary...

Arizona went to STL and smoked them where as SF played fairly well but still lost...Somewhat under the radar is SF losing their CENTER Heittman who was already the backup....

I think past 5 games we have seen a change in ARI and look at what Leinart did in Minny and STL...SF DEF is not that good..

Both teams upset SEA at home as 3 pt dogs ....big deal....SF pulled out 3 TDS out of their asses cause SEA never put them away ...its classic...let the other team hang around and you will get fucked.....

Would say that maybe at best SF should be -3 but w/o Bryant -2.5 at best probably really should see -1.5...the cards have beaten them 3 straight times now including the OPENER where they were big favs of 7 to 9 points...SF has improved slightily while I dont think Zona has dropped off any...

Just think the wrong team is getting hyped becaus eof the image killer ....LAST WEEK!
Leaning Over 44.5 -108 ......

49ers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
 
renew orleans said:
tampa/cleveland under 37? thoughts
Click to expand...

have a feeling this goes over but hate the fact they are both off big scoring games...

The Browns defense is thin and banged up and Anderson has shown or given life to the passing game...

Joe Public said it best when he outlined the possible scores...could be like 10-6 or 30-24......

I would suspect its like 24-14...just sneaking over....but to play an over I would need to see it drift off of 37 tmrw....

hard to NOT like an under TB 5 away games with 10 or less....Browns never consistent...I justthink both DEFENSES are in trouble......
 
Seahawks +4.5 -105 (Large) ML +179 (Small)
Over 46 -110 (XLarge)

The OVER is attractive cause SD is ona 5-0 OVER run where the lwoest score ws 24-21 but after the low was 57 and as high as 90. SEA only allows 4.9 YPC....Hawks have allowed only Oakland shutout and Den with Cutlers 1st start 20 points .....SF 20 but all other sabove 22....

Its Seattle so waiting on the weather before I finalize....SD also banged up on defense...

I think SD inability to cover the -6 at medicore sites like KC and Buff lends support to SEA....didnt they have this huge homefield edge....???

I think Hasselback can move the ball through the air versus SD secondary....

Basically Seattle needs to win here ...The old fat line due to a bad loss...hell a team was -10 one week then +4 the next week ay home both times.......??
 
Gonna wait on the Cincy - denver game but I was liking Cincy just concerned about Palmers shoulder.... What I do know is the DEN RB situation is a mess again....Tatum Bell was replaced by Mike Bell and I think they need consistency from one back to succeed...Ho wmany good teams has DEN beaten lately?/ And is playing this DEN team as tough as mannning in the RCA dome...?? So why both +3....Levi Jones returns as well

Thoughts...

Over 43 -110 Washington..
Over 44.5 -108 SF...

have to look at the other totals still....

But thats what I am doing as of now for SUnday or in some cases have done already.....
 
Did you decide on Titans/Bills? I see this being a pretty close game and I am leaning towards taking the points. This Titans team seems to be finding a way to win no matter what. It should be a pretty interesting game.
 
Goopster24 said:
Did you decide on Titans/Bills? I see this being a pretty close game and I am leaning towards taking the points. This Titans team seems to be finding a way to win no matter what. It should be a pretty interesting game.
Click to expand...

Waiting but leaning Bills if it drifts lower....
 
Hou ov 19 -104 team
Cle ov 20 -111 team
Ari ov 20.5 -106 team
Sea ov 21 -108 team
Det Un 18.5 -108 team

Ov 17.5 +100 TB 1st H , ov 7 +101 1st Q

all leans
 
I love the SEA +4 and O45, but am taking STL -1

BOL today sportsnut - happy holidays to you and your family
 
Nut, thanks for your effort this year. the insight provided in the nfl, nba, and ncaaf is most appreciated. as I have discussed with you before dallas is my team, so I am sure this is a homer comment but it seems as if new orleans will run away from the giants today. i really, really like the saints team total ovr at 22.5....please provide thoughts if possible. THANAKS AGAIN !!!!!
 
So this is what we are looking at...

Sides
Bills -4.5 -110 (Large)
Saints +3.5 -120 (Large) ML +148 (Small)
Skins ML +110 (XLarge) average price
Texans +10 -120 (Large) ML +385 (Value)
Steelers -3 -120 (XLarge)
Browns -3 -113 (Large)
Jaguars -2.5 -120 (Large)
Arizona +4 -110 (XLarge) ML +183 (Small)
Seahawks +4.5 -105 (Large) ML +179 (Small)

Note have not put in NO yet could grab +3.5..Cause I didnt want it fell left out I went Car +6.5 -110 (Small) +215 (Value)

1st Half

Bears -3 -120 (Medium) Win +2.00

Totals

Under 39 Jaguars -120 (Large)...listed in my 1st window..
Under 37 -110 Pitt (Small) now hedged @ half
Over 43 -103 Wash (Small)

Team Totals
Over 21 -103 Washington (Small)
Over 19.5 -108 Houston (Small) Win +1.00
Under 16.5 -106 Balt (Small)
Over 20 -111 Cleveland (Medium) -121 (Small)
Under 18.5 -108 Detriot (Medium)
Over 20.5 +104 Arizona (Medium)
Over 22 -120 Saints (Medium)

Decided to stay off that Seattle total with reports of high winds...went with team totals rather conventional totals....
 
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mr21 said:
I love the SEA +4 and O45, but am taking STL -1

BOL today sportsnut - happy holidays to you and your family
Click to expand...

Thanks Mr21..Naturally same to you...

Good Luck...being cautious with the SEA total cause I want an updated weather report and good luck with STL I just think WASH is rounding into form...
 
biggoob said:
Nut, thanks for your effort this year. the insight provided in the nfl, nba, and ncaaf is most appreciated. as I have discussed with you before dallas is my team, so I am sure this is a homer comment but it seems as if new orleans will run away from the giants today. i really, really like the saints team total ovr at 22.5....please provide thoughts if possible. THANAKS AGAIN !!!!!
Click to expand...

Thanks biggoob...Yeah , I played this as well...Really seems to me worst case they are looking at 21 pts..so definetly seems to have some value...Brees has had some big games just needs to stay away from turnovers.....Giants have given up a ton of yards lately and who have they stopped ...Weinke had 400+ yards and any help would have put the Panthers in the 20's...game ended with them on the 5 yd line...Strahan is coming back as a situational pass rusher so how effective can he be..??
 
after what i saw the saints do to the dallas pash rush (what little there is of it), strahan shoudnt do much but relinquish the outside contain he is supposed to control by rushing from the outside. anyway i am glad to see you like the saints team total as well. I know you will provide monday night analysis on monday, however, I am very very concerned for dallas against philly. after your insight on the philly/giants game last week i see no reason philly cant do the same to dallas on monday. i do think dallas can win but it will be a sweat game for sure...await your reply...
 
SportsNut said:
Houston Texans +10 -120 (Large) ML +385 (Value)

The Colts are off a big home win on MNF and now get to travel to Houston. Can you feel the emotion and excitement. As I pointed out prior to the MNF game has anyone realized that Indy seems to plays it best in primetime?? Think they are now 9-0 SU and ATS in primetime past 2 seasons....all the Colts clunkers were non televised games...

Really this hsouldnt be more then a TD at best....Indy hasnt played well on the road this seasson why now?? They are still banged up ....

I think Dayne can run on them and Carr and the boyz pack enough punch to score on this still not so good Indy defense...they have allowed 200 yds on the ground per game away...that generallymeans less time for the offense....Harrison and Addai were hurt less game making me think they will be cautious with them and Indy just doesnthave depth on offense...

The Texans were in a bad spot in NE...Pats off a shutout and Hou left the hearts in OT at home vs Tenny....basically the Texans are two plays away from winning 4 straight at home...

Just think Indy wont be sharp here and Texans offense can put up some points on the thin defense....
Click to expand...
Off to a good start.. had a feeling youd be on this one :cheers:
 
OSO$ said:
Seatle over 46(XLarge)

think you missed that
Click to expand...

Actually if you go back I said I was gonna check on the weather first before I placed it...lots of heavy winds expected from what I read last nite so I am just passing for now till gametime to see what the real story is weather wise...
 
Well I can say 3 moves that scared me today...where Pitt going to -4 , Cle to 3.5 and even Buff to -5.5....thats why public percentages are BS IMO...
 
SportsNut said:
Well I can say 3 moves that scared me today...where Pitt going to -4 , Cle to 3.5 and even Buff to -5.5....thats why public percentages are BS IMO...
Click to expand...
why so sports? any 2nd half for the skins
 
Well Houston leads 21-14 @ Half naturally I am somewhat disappointed I didnt further to look at 1st Q and 1st H ML's plays here....they clearly held alot of value...

Basically I have faith in the Texans here to stick to the game plan keep running Dayne..

I do think ATL has no heart....

Car +3.5 -115 & ML +162 (Small plays)


I do want to hedge my Under 37 Pitt so going Over 18 +104 (Small) making 38 a bad number for me

Over 17 -131 TB (Medium)
Browns -3 +118 (Medium)

Simply put TB should be destroying the Browns right now...leave the Door wide open and someone will come a running through......

Steelers -3.5 +110 (Medium)

Have to like the late score by Pitt to wake up..

Skins +3 -115 & ML +148 (Small plays)

Simply put was one of my strongest plays early and love how WAS fought back..
 
Supersav said:
why so sports? any 2nd half for the skins
Click to expand...

Why?

Cause why are those lines moving? They are already inflated to begin with I expect those lines to go down...?? Especially if they are so called public dogs on the other side...

Pitt should be -3 , Cle should be -1.5 , and Buff should be -3/ -3.5 so why such the heavy moment.....simply cause everyone is betting those sides ....

played the Skins 2nd H..
 
I do like the fact Buff put 3 back on the board before half.....so would lean that way at half...-3.5 +100...
 
Supersav said:
i havent watched the skins game can the rams come back
Click to expand...

Nor am I ! Of course they can I felt all along this line was bad and they were looking for STL money...so I am just sticking to my guns...I rather follow plays by plays in writing then watch a game.(only watching NYg and NO)...takes opinion out of the equation for the most part....WAS is running and should continue to do so they scored twice in the final 7 minutes of the half and should have momentum...I trult think Wash came in the hungrier team and playing better football...
 
See I should know better and thats really what pisses me off about me sometimes...

I should be scared off of Pitt when it goes to -4 , scared off of Cle when it hits -3.5 , Scared off of Jax when it goes to -3 -120..was -3 -102 early , and scared when Buff goes to -4.5...

not only where they public they wer EXTREMELY heavily bet public plays... cause money moves lines and they needed a good flow to move these...

Thats why I hate all this Public vs Sharp talk.....Sharps are part of the betting public...my daily rant.. so Ineed a mircale comeback in one of them....confident in my Skins , Saints and Texans..
 
Right now I would prefer NO 2nd H @ +3....think about this if Fred Thomas doesnt fall down how many points does NY have..???

NO +3 -125 (Small)
 
The Browns just bent me over...bolcked FG after having the ball at the 6 yd line...I can see that has no chance of a miracle comeback and that FG probably deflated Cle and should kill my 2nd Half wagers....uhhh..
 
You know what how did I not pound that Skins over 43.....?? STL D is awful and Wash was gonna give up 17-24 worst case.....

DOGS are really barking..I would say you could cash NE , Balt and TB at this point....no jinx simple truth..
 
Th XMas Eve lowdown..
SportsNut said:
Sides (7-5 +3.41)
Bills -4.5 -110 (Large) L -4.40
Saints +3.5 -120 (Large) Win +4.00 ML +148 (Small) +1.48
Skins ML +110 (XLarge) average price L -5.00
Texans +10 -120 (Large) Win +4.00 ML +385 (Value) Win +1.93
Steelers -3 -120 (XLarge) L -6.00{STUPID ME}
Browns -3 -113 (Large) Loss -4.52
Jaguars -2.5 -120 (Large) L -4.80 {STUPID ME}
Arizona +4 -110 (XLarge) Win +5.00 ML +183 (Small) Win +1.8
Seahawks +4.5 -105 (Large) Win +4.00 ML +179 (Small)L -1.00
Bengals +3 +112 (Large) Win +4.48 ML +155 (Small)L-1.00

Note have not put in NO yet could grab +3.5..Cause I didnt want it fell left out I went
Car +6.5 -110 (Small) Win +1.00 +215 (Value) +0.43

Figures Carolina hits...I Liked it and was to scared to play it really..

1st Half

Bears -3 -120 (Medium) Win +2.00

Totals 1-2 (-4.9)

Under 39 Jaguars -120 (Large)...L -4.8
Under 37 -110 Pitt (Small) -1.1
Over 43 -103 Wash (Small) WIn +1.00

Team Totals (-0.56)
Over 21 -103 Washington (Small)Win+1.00
Over 19.5 -108 Houston (Small) Win +1.00
Under 16.5 -106 Balt (Small)L -1.06
Over 20 -111 Cleveland (Medium) -121 (Small) L -3.42
Under 18.5 -108 Detriot (Medium) L -2.16 (Should have hedged at half)
Over 20.5 +104 Arizona (Medium) Win +2.08
Over 22 -120 Saints (Medium) Win +2.00

Decided to stay off that Seattle total with reports of high winds...went with team totals rather conventional totals....


2nd Half (-3.15)
Saints +3 -125 (Small) Win +1.00
Car +3.5 -115 & ML +162 (Small plays) WIn +1.00
I do want to hedge my Under 37 Pitt so going Over 18 +104 (Small) making 38 a bad number for me -1.00 shocking it hit 38!

Over 17 -131 TB (Medium) Win +2.00
Browns -3 +118 (Medium)Loss -2.00
Steelers -3.5 +110 (Medium) Loss -2.00
Skins +3 -115 & ML +148 (Small plays) -2.00
Click to expand...


1st Q ML's(2-0 +2.76)

Wow....some spectular ML moosings with Cincy and Sea....for all the garbage that happened and idiotic 4 plays I wasted money on.....I lost about 2 Units after going 3-0 at 4 Pm...had leans on Cincy over and SF over but passed cause I felt I was chasing....
 
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I cant say Joe Public didnt warn me! Anderson my sole reason for playing Cle has 3 picks...82 yards...took a sack when on the 6 yd line and threw a pick 6!
 
Giants seem defeated....but I am adding

Bengals +3 +112 (Large) ML +155(Small)

I think the Broncos did a nice job in Zona but lets be honest they have lost all the quality teams and beat Zona after a big home upset of divsional foe Seattle...

The DEN defense still for some reason has fallen to pieces they dont get much pass rush and do you want to give Palmer time?? His OL seems healthier with Anderson playing after leaving in the 2nd Q on Monday and Levi Jones should play as well..

I still dont trust the DEN offense...the RB situation always seem to be in constant flux and Walker is banged up some...

Personally all season DEN is getting abit to much credit for past dominance at home...this game should be a PKem IMO...Cincy will look to make up for the MNF game and they were playing good football just not good enough o win at the RCA dome...Even Elam is less then 100%...

Looking at the OVER but weather after that huge snowfall a concern for me...
 
1st Quarter ML 's..(SMall)

Cincy +140 Win +1.46
Sea +118 {Scorelesss}
Ari +136 Win +1.36


Scary with all DOGS hitting today that I like three more dogs what the hey...
 
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