Week 16 NFL

S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Will be back to breakdown the card later...I played these Monday Nite (see my NBA thread)...

(All Large)
Under 39 -120 Pats
Under 39 -124 Oakland
Packers -3 -111

With GB we have a short week for Jackson to get familar with the GB defense. Luckily for him they are not exactly something that will confuse the shit out of him. So its not the same as when Anderson played In Pitt. The Vikings just cannot stop any passing game and Favre had a douzy up in Minny. Looks like Smoot gets back in the starting lineup and to be honest have no idea if thats a good thing or bad thing at this point...We could have the annual last game ever for Brett at HOME. We do have a DOME team playing in some bad weather in Dec...Brett is 40-5 at home when the temp is below 35..should be tmrw..We have people grading Jackson on his numbers in mopup work vs NYJ... not a good idea...the gane was already decided there is no pressure...
 
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Yep, I hit that GB line too. Didn't get quite as good a number, but that'll probably be 4 or more by kickoff.

I really want to take the Raiders this week if Brooks is starting. (I know, I have trouble believing I just typed that too.) Great spot for 'em.

The Jags are probably going to be on my list as well.
 
I have read that Minny isnt sold on jackson and wanted to wait to play him.. not sure who they play this week but i know hes starting.

That denver bengals game will be a fun one
 
Is it really that easy to take Oakland? KC was a 8-10 pt fav depending when you got it in Arrowhead and now they are laying 6.5? Don't like putting my money on Aaron Brooks.
 
Let me chime in and go from there....

Carolina/Atl -6.5

If Delhomme starts I will play Panthers. Funny thing is in Week 1 Falcons were a 6.5 pt dog @ Carolina and now the public has jumped off of the Panther bandwagon. Not that I blame them especially after losing their last 4 ATS. If you buy into revenge spots in Professional sports would have to think this is one for Carolina. With NO as their next stop I would have to lean that Atlanta would be a more favorable matchup.
Lean Carolina

Indy/Houston +9

I was talking with my buddy sirwinzalot last night about this game and I have come to agree that this line is about 1.5 points off. Despite Indy's recent decline aside from last nights win over Cinci, I would think the line would be 14.5 if played at Indy. Not sure if the Texans are going to be fighting for another top draft pick and pack it in for the season. The fact that Indy has not been rolling like they normally do, I woudl have ot lean Colts as they need to finish the season on a positive note. Lean Colts

Cinci/Denver -3

Denver coming off of a 17 point win over Zona and Cincinatti off of a poor performance at Indy. Now I thnk there are a couple questions that need to be answered.

1. Is Cutler really fitting in this offense or is it more that the were playing Arizona?

2. Cincinnati's loss to Indy...did Indy totally dominate or did Cinci not execute?

If I had to make an educated guess I would lean towards the middle on both questions.

Back to the game....I thoght this total should be 46...see it opened at 47 and has been bet down to 44.5. I think this is the best play on this game. We all know what the Bengals offense is capable of , also factor in that Cutler being a rookie still learning the offense, is very INT prone. I still believe in Denver's run game and see them good for 24 points at Mile High minimum. I would lean Denver as the side as I believe the winner of this game is a Wild Card contender. Lean Over 44.5

San Diego/Seattle +4

Seattle off of a loss playing at home getting 4 points. Can't pass this up. As much as SD seems to be rollin', lets not forget that the actual final score for SD was 13-9. Sure I am still a little bitter, but the rules are the rules and there was 1 play that decided that outcome. Anyway, I see Seatle being extremely focused at home in a must win game. Could be a field goal decision. Also, did anyone else see the frustration with Rivers? Something to keeo in mind especially on the road with this young kid. Seeems he gets rattled easy. Something to think about. Lean Seattle +4
 
The Texans are pretty good fade material right now. They've absolutely quit on Kubiak, Carr's confidence is worse by the week, and the city is not behind them.
 
Good stuff I need to respond to at some point tonite...

Vent.........Can people stop talking about the public being all over GB!!! Stop with the useless betting pcts....if the public was all over GB the line would be moving...its inched up a few cents....moved from 3 to 3.5 on the news of Jackson starting which was an adjustment!

I think this is a tough game ...I am playing GB because there defense has been better the past 2 weeks and they face an offense with no identity starting a new young QB. Who people actual are weighing what he did versus NY for some reason...Now Minny has been unable to stop opposing QB's including Favre earlier and Pennington last week. The Weather appears to benefit Farve as Minny is a dome team...

Now I do feel the line is shaded a little higher then it should be but again a new QB on a short week is not an ideal situation IMO...Minny has talent but they find ways to lose and GB is about as predicatble as the weather!

Past history....sort of useless cause while road / dog side has done well generallt the spread was not as small as a FG....Primtime game lay the points or take the ML...we know that much.....

Bottomline is if you like Minny there is nothing wrong with that unless cause your fading the Public!! Vikes have underacheived and could turnaround at any moment but I think something is wrong when Marcus Robinson the key to there offense is a healthy scratch vs NY...He is the key cause he is the only WR who stretches the defense...otherwise its all grinding runs and short dumpoffs / routes...They have huge secondary issues and will move Smoot back into the starting corner spot...which means they will have a weak nickel package...

Waiting to see exactly what the weather is but hard lean towards the UNDER .....is a young QB going to win on the road without a shutdown defense...?? I dont think so....Something like 20-14....


Holla back please .....BOL!
 
Obviously the game already started but made a small play on the total....just was bust typing in the NBA forum...

Under 39 -110 (Small)
 
Really cant see how I dont take the Raiders now catching +7 -101 ...

As Austin pointed out they played well in KC catching 9 pts and what has happened since? We all know OAK is bad and there isoffense is non-existant....ummmm KC is 1-5 past 6 SU and laying a TD away to a team who is 5-3ATS catching a TD or better including 2-0 at home....!!

Sure they got shutout but come on....losers of 4 of 5 away and 2-5 overall....Teams struggle to even get 20 points versus this OAK defense...naturally the main concern is has OAK quit....doesnt appear so....especially trying to not get swept in theor division again...

On the road KC avgs 50 yds of offense more but allows 115 more then OAKs home defense...KC is 7-0 past 7 with all wins by a TD or less.....
 
SportsNut said:
Really cant see how I dont take the Raiders now catching +7 -101 ...

As Austin pointed out they played well in KC catching 9 pts and what has happened since? We all know OAK is bad and there isoffense is non-existant....ummmm KC is 1-5 past 6 SU and laying a TD away to a team who is 5-3ATS catching a TD or better including 2-0 at home....!!

Sure they got shutout but come on....losers of 4 of 5 away and 2-5 overall....Teams struggle to even get 20 points versus this OAK defense...naturally the main concern is has OAK quit....doesnt appear so....especially trying to not get swept in theor division again...

On the road KC avgs 50 yds of offense more but allows 115 more then OAKs home defense...KC is 7-0 past 7 with all wins by a TD or less.....
Click to expand...

I look at this game and I like KC. I don't like laying 7 points, like it at 4, but I'm not getting that anymore. It just doesn't make sense that KC was an 8-10 pt fav in Arrowhead ( Won SU, lost ATS) and now are laying 7 at Oakland. Seems too easy to take Oakland getting 7 points after the KC offense has looked pathetic 2 weeks in a row vs Baltimore & SD. Oakland's defense has played well considering no effort offensively. I think if anyone likes Oakland in this game, you need to ask yourself if you feel confident in Oak's potential to score points. Remember Green's first start back was vs Oakland. I gotta think he has a better game this time around.

Lean : Chiefs
 
Somewhat agree. It was Green's 1st game back but he had praticed for weeks prior so he wasnt thrown into the fire like it may seem(at least IMO). Second part is what has he or the passing game done since to make me think it will improve here.

It doesnt make sense to us but I would suggest everyone is simply fading OAK like they have after every shutout. It seems the games after a shutout have seen ridiculous lines...welll they were +9 to Denver at home who I would suggest is very similiar to KC...

They had covered 6 of 7 before this three game slide ATS.. probably due more to circumstance since they started covering and became favored in 2 of 3 recently and the other was an early start for a West coast team in Cincy....I jsut dont think KC is that good and I think many thought 4 pts was low and betthem up....Naturally I could see OAK laying another egg but if they put up 13 or 14 pts I feel very comfortable...they really only gave up 13 to STL...late fumble by the Offense put the ball on OAK 13....
 
Key Stats

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2b width="70%">GP</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>TDs (pass)</TD><TD class=datacell>5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Yds (pass)</TD><TD class=datacell>1013</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>INT</TD><TD class=datacell>6</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>Comp. Pct.</TD><TD class=datacell>62.1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2b>QB Rating</TD><TD class=datacell>76.0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Past Results

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2c>W</TD><TD class=datahl2b>vs.</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Score</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Line</TD><TD class=datahl2b>O/U</TD><TD class=datahl2b> </TD><TD class=datahl2b>Yds</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Comp%</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Y/A</TD><TD class=datahl2b>TD/INT</TD><TD class=datahl2b>Rat.</TD><TD class=datahl2b>INJURY</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>15</TD><TD class=datacell>@ SD </TD><TD class=datacell>L 9-20 </TD><TD class=datacell>L 9.5</TD><TD class=datacell>U 46.5</TD><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>185</TD><TD class=datacell>56.1</TD><TD class=datacell>4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>0/1</TD><TD class=datacell>57.5</TD><TD class=datacell>No injury listed </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>14</TD><TD class=datacell>BAL </TD><TD class=datacell>L 10-20 </TD><TD class=datacell>L -3</TD><TD class=datacell>U 37</TD><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>178</TD><TD class=datacell>55.6</TD><TD class=datacell>6.6</TD><TD class=datacell>1/2</TD><TD class=datacell>57.3</TD><TD class=datacell>No injury listed </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>13</TD><TD class=datacell>@ CLE </TD><TD class=datacell>L 28-31 x</TD><TD class=datacell>L -4.5</TD><TD class=datacell>O 35.5</TD><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>297</TD><TD class=datacell>75.0</TD><TD class=datacell>9.3</TD><TD class=datacell>4/1</TD><TD class=datacell>129.8</TD><TD class=datacell>No injury listed </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>12</TD><TD class=datacell>DEN </TD><TD class=datacell>W 19-10 </TD><TD class=datacell>W -1</TD><TD class=datacell>U 39</TD><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>161</TD><TD class=datacell>59.1</TD><TD class=datacell>7.3</TD><TD class=datacell>0/1</TD><TD class=datacell>62.9</TD><TD class=datacell>No injury listed </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>11</TD><TD class=datacell>OAK </TD><TD class=datacell>W 17-13 </TD><TD class=datacell>L -9</TD><TD class=datacell>U 36</TD><TD class=datacell> </TD><TD class=datacell>102</TD><TD class=datacell>56.3</TD><TD class=datacell>6.4</TD><TD class=datacell>0/0</TD><TD class=datacell>75.5</TD><TD class=datacell>No injury listed </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Oak , Balt , SD and Denver all good defenses and he has 1 TD and 4 INTS while Cle a bad defense due mainly to injury 4Tds and 1 Int......
 
abcs said:
2 first downs for the vikes and they are up..
Click to expand...


At half I was like the only way they can score is a defensive TD or the defense setting up a shortfield...with Longwell kicking theyhave the FG edge .....need a TD from GB
 
Name the price I would be willing to BET alot that Rayner misses this FG....absolute destruction and stupidity by Jennings and Franks cost GB a win but hey thats why they are a BAD team....less mistakes won!
 
Congrats to Vikes backers! Should have pounded the UNDER though I didnt think either team could crack 20...If part of your handicapping included Jackson playing well it might be best to read NFL 101...garbage time means NOTHING! any idiot can look good cause the game is already decided..and the defense does NOT care! Mentally the W is checked off already......and anyone who plays at a 1AA college will not be ready as a rookie...End of rant....bottomline is the line was fat and like almost all fat lines it lost...GB should have been -2 but I thought with Jackson doing 0 on offense the inflation would not matter...I was so wrong!
 
I'm on the fence with this KC game....most likely a pass. Although I agree if Oakland finds a way to score 10-14 points they should cover the game. Just curious as to why the line is at 7 now? Does Joe P really have this much faith in the KC offense right now?
 
Or is it lack of faith in Oaklands offense?? To me it wasnt opened at 7 so the answer for me is simply a flood of KC money...end of story...for some others I know what is creeping into there head....I value the opening line much more...
 
SportsNut said:
Or is it lack of faith in Oaklands offense?? To me it wasnt opened at 7 so the answer for me is simply a flood of KC money...end of story...for some others I know what is creeping into there head....I value the opening line much more...
Click to expand...

Great point
 
Hey Sportnut,
Wanted to give you a quick shout, and wish you a Merry Christmas. :cheers:
Green Bay completly outplayed Minny last nite in the 1st half.
14 1st downs to 1 and to have the score 6-0 is pathetic. I hate to whine so I will stop


Quick poker question. if 2 tables break to 1 with 11 players left does the 11 seat sit between the 5 and 6 seat? Obscure question I know.
 
chancedog said:
Hey Sportnut,
Wanted to give you a quick shout, and wish you a Merry Christmas. :cheers:
Green Bay completly outplayed Minny last nite in the 1st half.
14 1st downs to 1 and to have the score 6-0 is pathetic. I hate to whine so I will stop


Quick poker question. if 2 tables break to 1 with 11 players left does the 11 seat sit between the 5 and 6 seat? Obscure question I know.
Click to expand...

Thanks chance...glad your lurking around here...MerryXmas as well......

The GB game was sad but it happens and thats why bad lines lose... I held out faith that cause Jacskon was starting and would do zip that 3.5 was fair...had it closer to -2 but what can you do...a slip on a FG , hit the crossbar on aFG , score a TD but fumble as your going in , hit a screen take you inside the 5 and get a hold from the same idiot.....yeah GB outplayed every bit of the way! however it only gives credence to my point that favs have to bat team underdogs just have to hangaround....

The fact it was 6-0 at half screamed a play on MINNY! Minny cant play any worse and really GB not any better......bad move by me to not take the +0.5...could have been 12-0 and Min scored a late uselss TD ...

the poker question ...my brain is fried right now I cant think of the answer..or f I even know it....anyone here??..Sorry but I have cappers cramp!
 
Will be playing Oakland @ +7.5 tmrw(Large)...obviously I either have to buy it up or hope for a move...the little extra vig is worth the key number......
 
yeah...oak plays some good defense at home. and, at least earlier, were a covering machine...especially at home.
that said...i'm waiting for sunday. wanna take Oak, but i jsut can't trust them to not completely fold for the remainder.
 
I had Oak last week against the rams and they were useless...i'm glad i hedged out at half time...idk if i can bet on the raiders again...
 
likee

So, the hook has come into effect for me and I am on it. I have been waiting for this all week and now it comes. Here is my take.
Johnson complaining this week about the gameplan saying they need to change it!! What, it was you who said a few years back you weren't getting enough touches and now you are complaining again? I hope they do for tonight. I'll take my chances with a great pass D that Oak has against the likes of Kennison, Parker and Hall. Gonzalez is a beast and hard to stop but if KC is going to try and win this game by passing, well GL. They should win and that doesn't bother me but I believe there is no way they beat Oak by 7.5. I know, Oak was embarrassed last weekend by a poor D in STL but this is a rivalry game that has had many recent gmes won by 7 points or less. I'll take the hook just to be safe but I am liking this pick. GL to everyone either way.

KC 17-13
 
Under 39 -124 (Large)
Oakland +7.5 (Large) +278 (Value)
Under 22 +102 KC team (Small)


Basically we have covered the angles here. The Oakland team is well scripted ...great defense and almost zero offense. Has anyone realized that KC has scored 9,10,19,17,10 in 5 of the past 6..?? KC is playing 3rd of 4 away , have lost 3 straight away and are only 2-5 away...The 1st meeting in KC was 17-13....

Oakland is attempting to get a divisonal win for the first time in 2 years which should help them stay motivated. The Cheifs own the series but regularly win by a TD or less. Shell 's job is in doubt ..

A real lack of offensive stars in this game with only LJ and TG...would still play the Under but try to get 37 or better...
 
Sides I am looking at:

Saints +3 -114
Skins ML +110
Texans +9 -102
Steelers -3.5 -102
Browns -3-113
Jags -3-103
Zona +4 -103
Bengals +3 -103
Hawks +4 -103

Under 36.5 -108 Pitt
Under 37 -108 Jax
Over 46 -110 Sea

Will have some comments and updates just about all of thee will be played..
 
Careful with the Browns, SN, they've got so many injuries it's going to be tough for them to field a team. The good news is they're going to get a look at a lot of rookies--but as a bettor who the hell knows what that's going to mean.
 
Joe Public said:
Careful with the Browns, SN, they've got so many injuries it's going to be tough for them to field a team. The good news is they're going to get a look at a lot of rookies--but as a bettor who the hell knows what that's going to mean.
Click to expand...


This is my fade the average joe method...everyone gets giddy about the backup QB who comes in a looks like a playa...then he travels the following week and he looks like a deer caught in headlights...see tavaris Jackson or even Anderson.....See Huard came in relief vs Cincy and everyone wrote him off heading DEN but no one cared to realize he actually played well...so this is my anti-logic play......helps that Cadillac is Out cause I fear Pittman and Alstott much less no matter how badly caddy is running it...and whats TB in cold weather below 40 degrees??? 2 and what..??

I think this could actually be somewhat high scoring cause I see Cle putting up 24 or so....and as you said Browns have healthy bodies on defense not much more....problem is thats all TB ohas on offense...bodies!
 
Well, the other thing you have in your favor would be that Rattay and Dorsey worked together in SF and I'm sure Dorsey can help give the defense a little better of a read on Rattay.

I agree with you, there could be points here, but I swear to you, there really isn't a final score in this game that would surprise me. 10-6, 31-30, 40-3, 36-20, 9-3, none of them would shock me.

The thing I think you have working in your favor is that Cleveland's skill guys are relatively healthy. Well, Winslow's knee has hit the wall, but he's still going to play and get his yards. But Braylon and Joe J. are healthy enough, and the rookie WR Travis Wilson will get in there. Also the RBs Wright and Harrison will likely see some time and I'm sure they'll want to impress.

But man, that poor defense. Seriously, at this point I think you could feature prominently in their dime package if you'd just apply yourself. They've got no one left. Everybody's hurt.

Then there's Derek Anderson playing against Monte Kiffin's schemes which nobody likes.

I'm just staying away, but I do wish you luck there.

I'm actually on or like all of your plays except the Skins. I like the Lambchops. Other than that, though, I like the card.
 
Pittsburgh Steelers @ -3-120 (XLarge)
Under 37 -120 (Medium)

<LI class=more>Ravens are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 road games. <LI class=morecool>Ravens are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. <LI class=morecool>Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.<LI class=morecool>Steelers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Home team has won 9 of 10. Steelers have won 5 of 6 except teh 27-0 loss @ Baltimore. While Balt has won 7 of 8 outside of the Thurs Nite game @ Cincy.

Bottomline is Pitt has picked up momentum with 3 straight wins over bad teams. The defense should get a boost from a Polamalu but has been excellent regardless. While Balt is banged up and without Ogden on the OL. The Ravens have only avg 3.3 YPC on the road and you just are not running on Pitt. The Steelers defense has allowed 13 pts combined past 3 games!! Just go over every Balt away game it has been a struggle to win period!!! McNair left with the hand injury and says he is okay we will find out but Heap and Rolle are listed as questionable as well.

Willie Parker has been a beast at home and Ben has been a little better protecting the ball...
 
Joe Public said:
Well, the other thing you have in your favor would be that Rattay and Dorsey worked together in SF and I'm sure Dorsey can help give the defense a little better of a read on Rattay.

I agree with you, there could be points here, but I swear to you, there really isn't a final score in this game that would surprise me. 10-6, 31-30, 40-3, 36-20, 9-3, none of them would shock me.

The thing I think you have working in your favor is that Cleveland's skill guys are relatively healthy. Well, Winslow's knee has hit the wall, but he's still going to play and get his yards. But Braylon and Joe J. are healthy enough, and the rookie WR Travis Wilson will get in there. Also the RBs Wright and Harrison will likely see some time and I'm sure they'll want to impress.

But man, that poor defense. Seriously, at this point I think you could feature prominently in their dime package if you'd just apply yourself. They've got no one left. Everybody's hurt.

Then there's Derek Anderson playing against Monte Kiffin's schemes which nobody likes.

I'm just staying away, but I do wish you luck there.

I'm actually on or like all of your plays except the Skins. I like the Lambchops. Other than that, though, I like the card.
Click to expand...


I am in total agreement with you...I think TB at this point is just worn down defensively...his schemes are tough but without the personnel?? not to mention I think Anderson played well in Balt certainly a tougher task then home vs TB...also I would not be suprised if TB is flat here after such an emotional comeback in Chi...traveling again!

Pretty much what I am thinking the Cle offense seems healthy and improving...
 
Houston Texans +10 -120 (Large) ML +385 (Value)

The Colts are off a big home win on MNF and now get to travel to Houston. Can you feel the emotion and excitement. As I pointed out prior to the MNF game has anyone realized that Indy seems to plays it best in primetime?? Think they are now 9-0 SU and ATS in primetime past 2 seasons....all the Colts clunkers were non televised games...

Really this hsouldnt be more then a TD at best....Indy hasnt played well on the road this seasson why now?? They are still banged up ....

I think Dayne can run on them and Carr and the boyz pack enough punch to score on this still not so good Indy defense...they have allowed 200 yds on the ground per game away...that generallymeans less time for the offense....Harrison and Addai were hurt less game making me think they will be cautious with them and Indy just doesnthave depth on offense...

The Texans were in a bad spot in NE...Pats off a shutout and Hou left the hearts in OT at home vs Tenny....basically the Texans are two plays away from winning 4 straight at home...

Just think Indy wont be sharp here and Texans offense can put up some points on the thin defense....
 
Yeah, well, the Texans better show up tomorrow because the Browns annual win in week 17 to screw up their draft position comes to town next week.

May have to follow you on that one, SN.
 
Jags buy -2.5 (Large)
Under 37 or better (Large)

The Jaguars are simply a different animal at home. They manhandled the colts who dissected NE in NE. True , the Colts were able to attack the NE weakness and Jax was able to attack the Indy weakness...

Bottomline is Jax has been that good at home only two teams scored 17 against them at home....the rest 13 or less including 2 shutouts....the NE team showed they had issues when they went to Miami well Jags are simply a better version of Miami....There is no way Jags should have lost last week and I look for them to bounce back here....little payback for the playoffs as well...no team has been as tough at home IMO.....

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>NE
JAC</TD><TD class=datacell>10.7
9.1</TD><TD class=datacell>265.2
258.1</TD><TD class=datacell>195.8
178.0</TD><TD class=datacell>69.3
80.1</TD><TD class=datacell>3.2
3.2</TD><TD class=datacell>6.0
5.1</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<LI class=more>Patriots are 11-27-2 ATS in their last 40 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Patriots are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog
 
Saints +3 -114 possibly buy +3.5 (Large) ML +140 (value)

Unfortunately my comments went into cyberspace!!

Basically I was saying I have this game as closer to a PK....NO off bad home loss helps make this line fat...NYG is 1-4 SU past 5 and the defense is nowhere to be found...38,36 ,26,24, 23 and 13 in Carolina but 400+= Yds to Weinke...hello Drew Brees!!

There is the payback issue for teh so called home game in NY last season...

There is the Saints defense even w/o Hollis Thomas past 4 games 17 or less...

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Last 3 | In-Depth </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>NO
NYG</TD><TD class=datacell>28.7
23.0</TD><TD class=datacell>393.7
353.7</TD><TD class=datacell>253.7
237.3</TD><TD class=datacell>140.0
116.3</TD><TD class=datacell>4.2
4.1</TD><TD class=datacell>7.3
6.5</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>NO
NYG</TD><TD class=datacell>14.3
24.0</TD><TD class=datacell>301.0
403.3</TD><TD class=datacell>189.7
298.0</TD><TD class=datacell>111.3
105.3</TD><TD class=datacell>5.4
4.6</TD><TD class=datacell>6.4
7.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Basically the NYG secondary looks like its in trouble...is it that odd for a team hwo hasnt really tasted success to come home after a big win and lay an egg?? They were outplayed but at the end of the day it was a 6 pt loss...oh has anyone realized NO is 6-1 ATS away and 5-2 SU...

As always I look for lines that appear off and as I said this IMO should be a PKem...2 weeks ago Dallas was -3 in NY where NO just went to Dal and won SU!!

It seems late in games the NY defense just cannot come up with a stop....Eli si inconsistent if he isnt his WRs are , the OL...?? , Starhan rushingback to play savior....naturally they have Tiki's last home game to rally on...

just waiting to see how this reacts before I finalize it...
 
I agree and Im a Giants fan but saints are the havy public dog tommorow I just cant see the giants d stopping them
 
Da Browns -3 -113 (Large)

Okay proceed with caution the Browns injury list looks like it includes everyone...they have lost Jason Wright @ RB , Bodden and A.davis on defense...who knows who else....

TB is 0-7 away...tough spot how bout 4th in 5 weeks away. of the 7 away games only 2 were decided by less then 11 FG losses in Chi and NO..

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Home</TD><TD class=yspscores>16</TD><TD></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>90.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>249</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>387</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>64.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2731</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>143.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>7.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>19</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>10</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>29</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>57</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>32</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>183</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>Away</TD><TD class=yspscores>14</TD><TD></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>69.9</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>136</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>247</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>55.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1561</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>104.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>9</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>12</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1.0</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>27</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>171</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>2</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>As Starter</TD><TD class=yspscores>16</TD><TD></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>80.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>308</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>508</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>60.6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3468</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>216.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>21</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>18</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>24</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>75</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>4.7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>3.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>52</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>309</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>14</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>8</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=yspscores align=left>As Sub</TD><TD class=yspscores>14</TD><TD></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>92.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>77</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>126</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>61.1</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>824</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>45.8</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6.5</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>1</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>17</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-6</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-0.3</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>-0.4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>7</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>45</TD><TD height='\"16\"'></TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>4</TD><TD class=yspscores height='\"16\"'>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


that is rattays career splits notice how he has history of stinking on the road but wait , stinking as starter but looking good as a sub!

Also TB has scored 10 or less in 5 of 7 away!!!! AT least Cle just defeated KC at home and gave Balt a scare.....

<TABLE class=data cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=2><TBODY><TR><TD class=datahead colSpan=7>Home/Away | In-Depth | Last 3 HA </TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Off</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>TB
CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>11.6
15.1</TD><TD class=datacell>282.1
264.1</TD><TD class=datacell>195.9
177.9</TD><TD class=datacell>86.3
86.3</TD><TD class=datacell>3.8
3.7</TD><TD class=datacell>5.2
6.1</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>Def</TD><TD class=datahl2>Avg</TD><TD class=datahl2>Yards</TD><TD class=datahl2>Pass</TD><TD class=datahl2>Rush</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/R</TD><TD class=datahl2>Y/A</TD></TR><TR><TD class=datahl2>TB
CLE</TD><TD class=datacell>24.4
20.9</TD><TD class=datacell>344.7
335.6</TD><TD class=datacell>204.4
225.0</TD><TD class=datacell>140.3
110.6</TD><TD class=datacell>4.2
3.6</TD><TD class=datacell>6.8
6.3</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

Cadillac will be out so Pittman and Alstott get the call..

Bottomline I see that TB has laid 5 eggs on the road where as Cle only played 1 or 2 real bad home games.....
 
Love the spot for New Orleans, also on Pitt and Jacksonville may have to look into the Texans Whats your favorite play on the board tomorrow??GL as always tomorrow and happy holidays
 
Redskins ML +108 (XLarge)

Basically we saw tonite why Oak is the worst team in the league. If you really go over the play by play last week the Rams probably played worse then KC did tonite. The same deal silly turnovers take points off the board for the offense and the other turnovers give the opposition easy points...

StL has beat no one of late and Was seems to be finding themselves. yes , I rode them huge in NO last week cause 10 was ridiculous...but here this should have been a PK..to begin with....If Campbell wasnt young they should be favored....Betts is a beast running behind a great OL and check the STL rush defense....not so good as Borat would say! Did anyone notice the Bears and cards lit them up...Campbell continues to improve the defense is playing well and outside of the collapse vs ATL where they blew a 14-0 lead...they have been right there for 5 straightgames..Rams are 3-7 last 10 barely beating SF and GB previously...remeber favre's phantom fumble when they were already in FG range??

<LI class=morehot>Redskins are 11-2-3 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. <LI class=morehot>Redskins are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 16. <LI class=morehot>Redskins are 4-1-2 ATS in their last 7 games in December.<LI class=more>Rams are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as a favorite. <LI class=more>Rams are 3-10-2 ATS in their last 15 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.<LI class=morecool>Rams are 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. <LI class=morecool>Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in December. <LI class=morecool>Rams are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 home games vs. a team with a losing road record<LI class=morehot>Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings in St. Louis. <LI class=morehot>Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. <LI class=morehot>Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings. <LI class=morecool>Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings

Think about this STL was DOGGED to OAKLAND...
 
Kmacc said:
Love the spot for New Orleans, also on Pitt and Jacksonville may have to look into the Texans Whats your favorite play on the board tomorrow??GL as always tomorrow and happy holidays
Click to expand...

Thanks Kmacc! Happy Holidays as well....

Right now just about everything I am playing is pretty sizeable and about the same strength level...I think so far Skins are my biggest play but there is some risk trusting them after a big win I guess...kinda still in the midst...
 
Three 1PM's have be confused ...

Atl / Car
Chi / Det
Buff / Tenn

Really we all know tenny had no right to win last week but Buff -4.5....i could see the offense of Tenny shootin a blank...like Miami 's did....I cant touch either side in the Falcs and Panthers..wish I had played Chi -4...I understand the motivation is gone and while DET suprises everyonce in awhile with KJ out they cant run the ball...so that should help the secondary....
 
sportnut,

What's your top 1pm games tomm.? I'm trying to narrow my plays down and compare them with you.


Also, Washington do you feel that they're going to be in a let down after playing there ass off and pulling off the upset last week?

SU a pool question I like N.O. to beat NYG at home, how do you feel about this game?

Another question is the Tenn/Buff game who do you like SU here? Same questions for the AZ/SF and NYJ/MIA games. I would also like some input on cincy/denver SU and ATS?
 
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