Week 16 discussion
- Thread starter JML4481
- Start date
2nd H :
Colts -6 -120 {Level2} Win
Over 23 {Level2} Win
Level 2 Plays : 2-1
Level 1 Plays : 3-3( -170vig though on a L)
Scrapped out a few bucks and have by ML parlays pending ...:cheers:
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
I think Dr. BOB and the PRO bettors were open in the end zone late, I am shocked Gerrard could not throw them a TD--
Proves what I said, games are won on the field not by who is playing what-
I mean when you think about it, as NUT knows it comes down to teams executing and being what they usually are-- You as a bettor must make it simple and not outthink yourself and confuse yourself.
I think he was asking to make sure he wasnt missing something . You dont really want to be on the other side of one of the more respected Pro bettors if your unsure of play ...I was pretty confident it was just normal movement but Dr. Bob did recommend it and since he did it at +3.5 or better there was surely some of hi sfollowers who banging the line down late ....To me just a matter of trying to look at everything not just the fact the line is moving :shake:
Sammy Meatballs
Sammy Meatballs? Never Heard of Her
Yeah we capped that one correctly buddy, I started doing it NUT STYLE, I learned that from you :cheers:
My inquiry on why the line dropped was aimed at what sportsbooks were aiming to do. They must have game plans too, just in which way and how heavy of action they want. Naturally the lower line is a invite for more Colt action. The way the favorites have been coming in on single primetime games, I could see their thinking , that a doggie was due to pop.
But your right the game is play on the field not in the sportsbooks office.
Did Colt backers handicap that game to a tee? The result would suggest yes but real truth is it,s all bullshit luck. That game could of been a 3 pt win . The Jags competed more than most people thought.
Last game @ Texas Stadium...
The Raven defense at home is top notch but unlike Pitt's IMO it doesnt travel as well . It is still very solid but not unstoppable. Plus the Balt defense and it really wasnt on the defense but they allowed Pitt to move the ball in the 4th Quarter. Now they have 1 day less of rest and have to trale on top of that . They also had quite a few banged up players which I am sur ewill all go on defense but expecting for what they expect to be typically medicore performance .....
You can throw on Balt especially when its starting corners are banged up and so is Ed Reed. It may be minor but 90% of them is better then full strength. Plus factor the time of year in with a long season winding down ...
I have heaped priase on the DAL defense for much of this season . The last few weeks have been their finest but after 3 such top notch efforts and even for them a somewhat shortweek after the SNF game.
Balt was at or inside the 10 yd line 3x but all FGs and were around the 25 yd line when Flacco took a sack. It was home but the offense wast as bad it looked except it didnt really maximize any scoring chances it had always settling ...So after its worst game of the year expect a little bounce back ....
Dallas can be run on effectively as well but just not ran over ...Think Ngata's Pro Bowl Snub will be motivating ...as well as think the last game could be easy and early distraction for Dallas . The comparision to Yankee Stadium is IMO a POOR one. It was the last game of the season , NY was eliminated for the 1st time in a long time already , Balt was limping to the finish line and on paper NY was still significantly better then Balt ....
For the most part the Balt offense well at least in terms of putting up points ion the scoreboard has bounced back from low scoring games...
That with 2 aggressive defenses who will either get caught being overactive on some plays and blwoing a coverage or jump a route / force a turnover that will lead to some quick easy points ...even the return games could do something ...
So think worst case Balt gets 17 pts and Dallas gets 20/21 worst case .....
Which puts us right at 37/38 points on a 39 total...which we seem to have alot of Under thoughts but think 46.5 last week was a ton more value for an under ..
Had this game -5 or -5.5 with Barber at 100% even with Choice playing well would have to subtract a point to -4 / -4.5level......
Yesterday played Dallas -4 {Level2} Really buying into the last game hype but after really looking at this game other then coming out flat like they did @ Indy think we have a great game today . Ray Lewis had a nice interview talking about how he learned to shake off tough losses after the recent Pitt game ...WHich leads me to believe the effort @ Indy will serve as a learning experience .......
Over 39 {Level2} Still shopping do I get 38 ?? No idea but trying ...and lean 1st H over as well 19.5
Dallas -4 {Level2} almost 95% sure that I am washing this out and taking Balt especially if +6 falls into my lap. Essentially a wash because need a 5 to middle it ......BUT thinking more and more about playing Balt here in a game that is decided late by 3 points ..
Dallas tends to start slow in the 1st Quarter so leaning Balt 1st Q maybe Dal 2nd Q and Balt 1st Half .......
Also looking to play Dallas TT Over 21.5 -115 Level 2 play but again waiting to see what the best price I can get .....
Havent looked at Player Props yet and waiting abit till I finalize this game.
So lean to Balt at this point and look to middle the original Dallas play...just see a game decided by a FG ...Looking @ how Balt played @ NYG a batch of plays that went againstt Balt in a tough spot 3rd staright away really decided the game . NYG was hot and they were begging for Balt money that day it seemed ...
:cheers:
The Raven defense at home is top notch but unlike Pitt's IMO it doesnt travel as well . It is still very solid but not unstoppable. Plus the Balt defense and it really wasnt on the defense but they allowed Pitt to move the ball in the 4th Quarter. Now they have 1 day less of rest and have to trale on top of that . They also had quite a few banged up players which I am sur ewill all go on defense but expecting for what they expect to be typically medicore performance .....
You can throw on Balt especially when its starting corners are banged up and so is Ed Reed. It may be minor but 90% of them is better then full strength. Plus factor the time of year in with a long season winding down ...
I have heaped priase on the DAL defense for much of this season . The last few weeks have been their finest but after 3 such top notch efforts and even for them a somewhat shortweek after the SNF game.
Balt was at or inside the 10 yd line 3x but all FGs and were around the 25 yd line when Flacco took a sack. It was home but the offense wast as bad it looked except it didnt really maximize any scoring chances it had always settling ...So after its worst game of the year expect a little bounce back ....
Dallas can be run on effectively as well but just not ran over ...Think Ngata's Pro Bowl Snub will be motivating ...as well as think the last game could be easy and early distraction for Dallas . The comparision to Yankee Stadium is IMO a POOR one. It was the last game of the season , NY was eliminated for the 1st time in a long time already , Balt was limping to the finish line and on paper NY was still significantly better then Balt ....
For the most part the Balt offense well at least in terms of putting up points ion the scoreboard has bounced back from low scoring games...
That with 2 aggressive defenses who will either get caught being overactive on some plays and blwoing a coverage or jump a route / force a turnover that will lead to some quick easy points ...even the return games could do something ...
So think worst case Balt gets 17 pts and Dallas gets 20/21 worst case .....
Which puts us right at 37/38 points on a 39 total...which we seem to have alot of Under thoughts but think 46.5 last week was a ton more value for an under ..
Had this game -5 or -5.5 with Barber at 100% even with Choice playing well would have to subtract a point to -4 / -4.5level......
Yesterday played Dallas -4 {Level2} Really buying into the last game hype but after really looking at this game other then coming out flat like they did @ Indy think we have a great game today . Ray Lewis had a nice interview talking about how he learned to shake off tough losses after the recent Pitt game ...WHich leads me to believe the effort @ Indy will serve as a learning experience .......
Over 39 {Level2} Still shopping do I get 38 ?? No idea but trying ...and lean 1st H over as well 19.5
Dallas -4 {Level2} almost 95% sure that I am washing this out and taking Balt especially if +6 falls into my lap. Essentially a wash because need a 5 to middle it ......BUT thinking more and more about playing Balt here in a game that is decided late by 3 points ..
Dallas tends to start slow in the 1st Quarter so leaning Balt 1st Q maybe Dal 2nd Q and Balt 1st Half .......
Also looking to play Dallas TT Over 21.5 -115 Level 2 play but again waiting to see what the best price I can get .....
Havent looked at Player Props yet and waiting abit till I finalize this game.
So lean to Balt at this point and look to middle the original Dallas play...just see a game decided by a FG ...Looking @ how Balt played @ NYG a batch of plays that went againstt Balt in a tough spot 3rd staright away really decided the game . NYG was hot and they were begging for Balt money that day it seemed ...
:cheers:
Quarters :
1st Q Ravens +0.5 -125 {Level2}
2nd Q Boys -0.5 -125 {Level1}
4th Q Boys -0.5 {Level1}
1st Quarter Over 7 -130{Level1}
Teaser :
Boys +1 and Over 33 {Level2}
Ravens +11 and Over 33 {Level1}
Team Total :
Over 21.5 -115 Dallas {Level1}
1st Score :
Ravens +130 {Level1}
Rest ...
Over 39 Dallas vs Baltimore {Level2}
1st H Baltimore +3 {Level2}
Dallas -4 and Ravens +6 -120 {Level2} Just changed my mind on Dallas hoping its close at half or down....
Under 20 1st H -115 {Level1}
Props:Level 2 = 1.0% plays of roll
Flacco over 185.5 passing yards -130 {Level2}
Romo Pver 245.5 passing yards -110 {level 2}
Over 70.5-140 Terrell Owens yards {Level2}
Over 39.5 -145 Mark Clayton {Level1}
Over 29.5 +100 Tashard Choice {level1}
:cheers:
1st Q Ravens +0.5 -125 {Level2}
2nd Q Boys -0.5 -125 {Level1}
4th Q Boys -0.5 {Level1}
1st Quarter Over 7 -130{Level1}
Teaser :
Boys +1 and Over 33 {Level2}
Ravens +11 and Over 33 {Level1}
Team Total :
Over 21.5 -115 Dallas {Level1}
1st Score :
Ravens +130 {Level1}
Rest ...
Over 39 Dallas vs Baltimore {Level2}
1st H Baltimore +3 {Level2}
Dallas -4 and Ravens +6 -120 {Level2} Just changed my mind on Dallas hoping its close at half or down....
Under 20 1st H -115 {Level1}
Props:Level 2 = 1.0% plays of roll
Flacco over 185.5 passing yards -130 {Level2}
Romo Pver 245.5 passing yards -110 {level 2}
Over 70.5-140 Terrell Owens yards {Level2}
Over 39.5 -145 Mark Clayton {Level1}
Over 29.5 +100 Tashard Choice {level1}
:cheers:
Basically washed so far at 3-3...
2nd Half
Over 19 +105 {Level3}
-Plays out well because DAL is trailing 9-7..
Cowboys -3.5 {Level2} ...not crazy about Dallas but sticking to the game decided by 3 points and Balt keeps stalling for Fgs:cheers:
The_HAMMER
Pretty much a regular
BOL Nut....wicked analysis as always. Looking forward to tomorra!
:cheers:
:cheers:
Parlays
From Thursday )Colts ML -235 and SF ML -235 Parlay pays 1.03{Level2}
Colts ML , SF ML , Texans ML -300 and Vikings ML -170 pays 3.30{Level1}
Colts ML , Wake Forest ML -145 , Vikings ML -170 , Col State +125 pays 8.75 {Level 1}
2nd H @ Dallas:
Over 19+105 {Level3} Win
Dallas -3.5 {Level2} Loss
