Week 16 discussion

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg id=nfl-team-schedule cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow1><TD></TD><TD>L 13-29</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 2</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 14</TD><TD>at Minnesota</TD><TD>W 18-15</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 3</TD><TD>Sun, Sep 21</TD><TD>Jacksonville</TD><TD>L 21-23</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 4</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>bye</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>--</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 5</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 5</TD><TD>at Houston</TD><TD>W 31-27</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 6</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 12</TD><TD>Baltimore</TD><TD>W 31-3</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 7</TD><TD>Sun, Oct 19</TD><TD>at Green Bay</TD><TD>L 14-34</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 8</TD><TD>Mon, Oct 27</TD><TD>at Tennessee</TD><TD>L 21-31</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>ESPN</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 2</TD><TD>New England</TD><TD>W 18-15</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>at Pittsburgh</TD><TD>W 24-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 11</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 16</TD><TD>Houston</TD><TD>W 33-27</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 12</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>at San Diego</TD><TD>W 23-20</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>NBC</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 13</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 30</TD><TD>at Cleveland</TD><TD>W 10-6</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 14</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 7</TD><TD>Cincinnati</TD><TD>W 35-3</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 15</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 14</TD><TD>Detroit</TD><TD>W 31-21</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Look above look at Indys wins only 3 have been by more than 6 points- All 3 were at home vs CINCY DETROIT and BALTIMORE--

I have a little secret-- I called this when Indy played PATS- they cannot win by more than one possession-- THEY KILL CLOCK like I have never seen in my life---

It is no coincidence that other than those 3 teams above they win but barely win, they score on 7 minute drives and let other teams drive back on them also, basically the clock always runs when INDY plays on the road--

They are not a D to force 3 and outs and then score a QUICK TD-----

Not saying I like JAX or INDY here, but what I do know is INDY at -6.5 is the equivalent to lets say another team like Dallas being favored by -10--

-6.5 to them is a lot of points, they do not get big leads over anyone--

THey just cannot--

I bravely called out INDY and said the rest of this year they will not beat anybody by double digits or blow anyone out--

besides CINCY, they were also only up 7 points to Detroit- every game they play is close, so you can basically know that their style is clock killing drives and defense is also let the other team march down the field--

Just a thought to consider that in this spot, INDY is not a high powered offensive team, in fact the opposite is true---

Indy only scored over 30 once on the road this year---

It is hard to cover a 6.5 point spread when you can say that chances are INDY does not hit over 30 points--

Jags play them tough always but jags are untouchable IMO because of the QUIT factor and the fact GUERARD sucks-

However JAGS always play them well every single year.

No MAthis for JAGS, Jags will be in tough to stop the pass, especially if they dont get a rush on Peyton--

In this spot Jags look good, but due to the quit factor and injuries and Guerard sucking I would not touch the Jags either.
 
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=center><TD class=yspTabPadded> </TD><TD>Box Score</TD><TD>Play by Play</TD><TD class="yspTabActive yspsctbg">Drive Log</TD><TD class=yspTabMore width="100%"></TD></TR><TR vAlign=center><TD class=yspsctbg colSpan=6 height=5></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=560 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Green Bay Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>7:56</TD><TD class=c>5:23</TD><TD class=c>GB 17</TD><TD class=c>11</TD><TD class=c>79</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:35</TD><TD class=c>6:02</TD><TD class=c>GB 41</TD><TD class=c>10</TD><TD class=c>59</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>4:02</TD><TD class=c>2:44</TD><TD class=c>GB 20</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>75</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:33</TD><TD class=c>0:33</TD><TD class=c>GB 36</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>-5</TD><TD class=c>End Half</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:54</TD><TD class=c>3:18</TD><TD class=c>GB 18</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>9:17</TD><TD class=c>4:18</TD><TD class=c>GB 20</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>30</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>3:06</TD><TD class=c>3:17</TD><TD class=c>GB 36</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>5</TD><TD class=c>Downs</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>10:32</TD><TD class=c>4:57</TD><TD class=c>GB 26</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>51</TD><TD class=c>FG</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>1:50</TD><TD class=c>1:10</TD><TD class=c>GB 16</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>32</TD><TD class=c>Int</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width=10></TD><TD vAlign=top width=275><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysptblhead><TH colSpan=6>Jacksonville Drives</TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>1st Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:55</TD><TD class=c>6:52</TD><TD class=c>JAC 27</TD><TD class=c>12</TD><TD class=c>73</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>2:27</TD><TD class=c>2:52</TD><TD class=c>JAC 26</TD><TD class=c>7</TD><TD class=c>41</TD><TD class=c>FG Miss</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>2nd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>8:28</TD><TD class=c>4:26</TD><TD class=c>JAC 28</TD><TD class=c>8</TD><TD class=c>19</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>1:18</TD><TD class=c>0:45</TD><TD class=c>JAC 20</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>2</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>3rd Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>11:36</TD><TD class=c>2:19</TD><TD class=c>JAC 25</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>26</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>4:59</TD><TD class=c>1:53</TD><TD class=c>JAC 6</TD><TD class=c>3</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>Punt</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD colSpan=6> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblhead2><TH colSpan=6>4th Quarter </TH></TR><TR class=ysptblhead3><TH>Start
Time</TH><TH>Time
Poss</TH><TH>Drive
Began</TH><TH># of
Plays</TH><TH>Yards
Gained</TH><TH vAlign=top>Result</TH></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>14:49</TD><TD class=c>4:10</TD><TD class=c>GB 41</TD><TD class=c>9</TD><TD class=c>41</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD class=c>5:29</TD><TD class=c>3:33</TD><TD class=c>JAC 20</TD><TD class=c>6</TD><TD class=c>80</TD><TD class=c>TD</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD class=c>0:40</TD><TD class=c>0:40</TD><TD class=c>JAC 27</TD><TD class=c>1</TD><TD class=c>-1</TD><TD class=c>End Reg</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Friends you know how they say stats are misleading, I think they may be a bit misleading in the JAGS win over GBAY last week.

What i notice off the bat is a few things friends--

Jags did not force one single 3 and out from GBAY last week--

JAGS offense went 3 and out twice and punted every possession in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs-

IN fact JAGS got 56 yards in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs of the game--

JAgs had a hot 4th qtr and won the game last week-

GBay HAD A 11 play drive, 10 play drive and 2 nine play drives--

Jags did not play that well if you look at what I just wrote there-- GBAY had 2 turnovers which killled them.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Friends you know how they say stats are misleading, I think they may be a bit misleading in the JAGS win over GBAY last week.

What i notice off the bat is a few things friends--

Jags did not force one single 3 and out from GBAY last week--

JAGS offense went 3 and out twice and punted every possession in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs-

IN fact JAGS got 56 yards in the 2nd and 3rd qtrs of the game--

JAgs had a hot 4th qtr and won the game last week-

GBay HAD A 11 play drive, 10 play drive and 2 nine play drives--

Jags did not play that well if you look at what I just wrote there-- GBAY had 2 turnovers which killled them.
Click to expand...

Exactly why I have no love for Jax here . Looks like the Spurs game doesnt it ? SA outplays NO for most of the game but leaves the home team hanging around and boom they lose. Thats all Jax did was hang around .

Indy has not been able to play well on the road winning by 4 or less . I cant take Jax here and not sure I want to lay a TD if Sanders and Addai dont play. Still think this game means something for Indy after losing at home earlier . I am really not sure Jax can compete because of there incompotent offense . Does 17 pts give them a chance to cover ? I dont see Indy scoring less then 24 so think no ....

I just find it amusing that people were blasting Jax two weeks as terrible and horrible . Now they are again interested in betting them because they stole a game vs GB.

Just lean on Indy if they are healthy ...good post Sammy:cheers:
 
One factor is that Jags are familiar with INDY personnell--

For whatever reason they know INDY's plays and have the team to frustrate INDY with the run and playaction passes---

However in every matchup Rahean MATHIS is key, as he covers WAYNE and always seems to make a crucial INT off Manning-- He is out and Drayton FLORENCe takes over-- Not to mention Jags have possibly the worst corner in the NFL Brian Williams, this man bites, he cant even tackle--
 
Just remember Big Ben and how he carved up that offense early on Sunday Night Football ....enter Peyton Manning and the Colts. With Jax minus Taylor and Matt Jones.
 
SportsNut said:
Exactly why I have no love for Jax here . Looks like the Spurs game doesnt it ? SA outplays NO for most of the game but leaves the home team hanging around and boom they lose. Thats all Jax did was hang around .

Indy has not been able to play well on the road winning by 4 or less . I cant take Jax here and not sure I want to lay a TD if Sanders and Addai dont play. Still think this game means something for Indy after losing at home earlier . I am really not sure Jax can compete because of there incompotent offense . Does 17 pts give them a chance to cover ? I dont see Indy scoring less then 24 so think no ....

I just find it amusing that people were blasting Jax two weeks as terrible and horrible . Now they are again interested in betting them because they stole a game vs GB.

Just lean on Indy if they are healthy ...good post Sammy:cheers:
Click to expand...

Bang on buddy at this point in the season, Indy has shown consistency my friend, granted they have not won games by big margins on the road, there is a good reason for that-

They played road games at Pitts- Tenny- Sandiego-Cleveland-tough Houston team, at Minny tough dome team and at GBAY where they got lucky INt'ing manning twice for td's.

Jags have no offense, Guerrard is not the answer at QB, he is terrible unles his running game is going nuts and also if he runs, if this man does not run they do not win, its taht simple, last year he took off about 3 to 4 times on crucial long 20+ yard runs on 3rd down.

What we do know is that JAGS will not force Indy into many 3 and outs, they just won't. They cannot do it, they could not stop Houston on the road, Minny at home, lost at bears, this team had desings on playoffs and is playing out the year-

THe revenge angle really helps INDY here, I mean they wont take them lightly for sure.
 
Jax historically plays Indy close. They are basically built to defend and give this team fight. So normally, I would look very, very hard at those points, probably even the ML.

But the Jags are so thin right now, I'm not sure there's any value on this team at all.

Conversely, I see no value in Indy. The only way you can play Indy here, in my opinion, is if everybody is back and if everybody plays--Sanders, Addai, any and everybody on their O-line, everybody.

If that happens they may win 20-10, or 23-10. But as we've come to learn about this Indy team, they do not want to blow anybody out. They may back into it, like they did against Cincy, but that's not what their built for and that's not how Dungy coaches them.

But if Indy kind of limps in, this game will be a fight the whole way and then your money rides, either way, on one team or another making one crucial play later in the game.

I'm just not really interested in putting my money on that.
 
<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr colSpan=11 height=18>Defense</TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class="yspdetailttl first" align=left width="20%" height=18> Jacksonville</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Tack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Ast</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Sack</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">FFum</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">FumR</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">PD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Int</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl width="8%">IntTD </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> B. Williams</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>27</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> D. Florence</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> D. Smith</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1.0</TD><TD>5.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> R. Nelson</TD><TD>4</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> C. Ingram</TD><TD>3</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> R. Mathis</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>61</TD><TD>1 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> M. Peterson</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> J. Henderson</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> P. Spicer</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> M. Walker</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> G. Sensabaugh</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> T. McDaniel</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> B. Iwuh</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> R. Williams</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> R. Meier</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> W. James</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> Q. Groves</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> P. Prioleau</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> M. Owens</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


<TABLE class=yspwhitebg cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=yspsctbg><TD class=ysptblhdr width="40%" height=18>Rushing</TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD><TD width="10%"> </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class="yspdetailttl first" align=left height=18> Jacksonville</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Lng</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>TD</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>FumL </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> F. Taylor</TD><TD>26</TD><TD>121</TD><TD>4.7</TD><TD>34</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> M. Jones-Drew</TD><TD>19</TD><TD>107</TD><TD>5.6</TD><TD>18</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1 align=right><TD class=first align=left> D. Garrard</TD><TD>2</TD><TD>8</TD><TD>4.0</TD><TD>6</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2 align=right><TD class=first align=left> R. Williams</TD><TD>1</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0.0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0</TD><TD>0 </TD></TR><TR class=ysptblthbody1 align=right><TD class="yspdetailttl first" align=left height=18> Indianapolis</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Rush</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Yds</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Avg</TD><TD class=yspdetailttl>Lng</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
Gonna be on the Jags Sammy......wow, this might be a first......I stopped posting plays because I hit a hot streak after I stopped posting my plays for whatever reason, and I'm a weird superstitious s-o-b, so if the Jags don't cover and we're on the same side....it's your fault!:36_11_6:

GL Bro:cheers:
 
As i said a big part of JAGS success vs INDY was reshean MATHIS, he always made plays vs INDY--

first meeting he picked off a pass for a 61 yard Td there-- He scored 7 points--

Jags kicked a late 3 off a bullshit penalty late, Indy shuold have won, plus the 7 mathis poitns off a pick, they realy scored 13 points in that game--

I think that really INDY won that game, score is misleading again--

Now the bigges loss is MATHIS and TAYLOR, Matt Jones is always clutch on prime time games, so take him out and its all over--

Also sometimes you have to consider Manning vs Guearard? Yep sounds like Manning to me--

However must ensure INDY is healthy going in, at least Sanders in, he is more important than ADDAI--

Manning should be able to move it all day--

INDy does not blow out anyone but take a look at this my friends--

<TABLE class=yspwhitebg id=nfl-team-schedule cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=ysprow2><TD></TD><TD>L 17-23</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 9</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 2</TD><TD>at Cincinnati</TD><TD>L 19-21</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 10</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 9</TD><TD>at Detroit</TD><TD>W 38-14</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 11</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 16</TD><TD>Tennessee</TD><TD>L 14-24</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 12</TD><TD>Sun, Nov 23</TD><TD>Minnesota</TD><TD>L 12-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>FOX</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 13</TD><TD>Mon, Dec 1</TD><TD>at Houston</TD><TD>L 17-30</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>ESPN</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow2><TD height=18> 14</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 7</TD><TD>at Chicago</TD><TD>L 10-23</TD><TD>--</TD><TD>CBS</TD></TR><TR class=ysprow1><TD height=18> 15</TD><TD>Sun, Dec 14</TD><TD>Green Bay</TD><TD>W 20-16</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>


IN the losses of late they were all more than 6 points.

The way I see it is Houston, Minny and tenny and Bears all beat them by more tahn 10 points-- I see INDY as equal to these teams, should they not also be able to beat them by this margin?

Jags just dont seem live to me in this game. Only thing JAGS have going is history and possibly the fact they belive they can beat this team and they usually run all over Indy--

If Indy can make Jags one dimensional, they willl crush them as Guerard cannot throw on Indy to win--

Last year same matchup occured on MOnday night and Manning just ripped them apart with short pass after short pass and Colts won easily, kind of exactly like the Steelers did to them--

For me I dont see the Jags winning any of these prime time games of late- Lost last year on monday night to Colts, this yaer to PItts again, and To Houston-

THey are a beat up team, i dont see them staying within a Td vs INDy
 
Another point is that Indy at the start of the season is a different team now---
Jags played them in the 3rd game of the season and INDY should have won that game-

However now Indy has played better in their last 7 games including wins over Pitts, Sandiego, and Pats--


I need to find out what happened in the cleveland game, how did INDY only score 10 points that game?
 
Joe Public said:
Jax historically plays Indy close. They are basically built to defend and give this team fight. So normally, I would look very, very hard at those points, probably even the ML.

But the Jags are so thin right now, I'm not sure there's any value on this team at all.

Conversely, I see no value in Indy. The only way you can play Indy here, in my opinion, is if everybody is back and if everybody plays--Sanders, Addai, any and everybody on their O-line, everybody.

If that happens they may win 20-10, or 23-10. But as we've come to learn about this Indy team, they do not want to blow anybody out. They may back into it, like they did against Cincy, but that's not what their built for and that's not how Dungy coaches them.

But if Indy kind of limps in, this game will be a fight the whole way and then your money rides, either way, on one team or another making one crucial play later in the game.

I'm just not really interested in putting my money on that.
Click to expand...

I cant see Indy losing SU is why I would say I lean Indy . Be suprised if Indy didnt get to at least 23 points even shorthanded . The 2nd meeting last year was the only time Indy won by less then a TD . Big difference is JAx was usually a solid team with a good defense but medicore offense . The Colts were the bigshots and the spreads were kinda big in those meetings 8 or 9 points .

Anyway Harrison is out but Jax jlost MLB Daryl Smith as well on top pf the injuries and suspensions but allows Mike Peteresen to start again . Now jAx is a medicore offense and defense battling injuries on both sides. Colts are playing shorthanded at every spot it seems as well.

Colts maybe teased with the Under ? PK and Under 50?

Tight line IMO .

Not deciding till tmrw:cheers:



 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Another point is that Indy at the start of the season is a different team now---
Jags played them in the 3rd game of the season and INDY should have won that game-

However now Indy has played better in their last 7 games including wins over Pitts, Sandiego, and Pats--


I need to find out what happened in the cleveland game, how did INDY only score 10 points that game?
Click to expand...

Missed FG I believe , fumble inside the 1 after they had a TD but was reversed , they moved the ball but didnt score points and really it was 3 points:shake:
 
SportsNut said:
I cant see Indy losing SU is why I would say I lean Indy . Be suprised if Indy didnt get to at least 23 points even shorthanded . The 2nd meeting last year was the only time Indy won by less then a TD . Big difference is JAx was usually a solid team with a good defense but medicore offense . The Colts were the bigshots and the spreads were kinda big in those meetings 8 or 9 points .

Anyway Harrison is out but Jax jlost MLB Daryl Smith as well on top pf the injuries and suspensions but allows Mike Peteresen to start again . Now jAx is a medicore offense and defense battling injuries on both sides. Colts are playing shorthanded at every spot it seems as well.

Colts maybe teased with the Under ? PK and Under 50?

Tight line IMO .

Not deciding till tmrw:cheers:
Click to expand...


That tease should happen the Colts pick and under 50---

But be weary of the injuries to both teams, may want to tease it to 38?

NO harrison hurts Indy, Jags game went way over vs Houston, but I think that was due to SLATON, he was a threat to score on one play and did so a few times which killed everything.
 
The only problem is the Colts barely got over 23 last week against the Lions at home.

Ugh.

I do think they can sleepwalk to a win, I just don't know if that'll be enough for a cover. Again, for me, it's all about health. Exactly who plays for Indy. If they all play, given the Jags' injuries, even if Indy doesn't play well they should be able to cover because the talent gap will be that dramatic.

But if they sit a bunch of people and just try to get by, the Jags season is over, so a win tomorrow night would be their SB and almost certainly get some of these would-be second stringers jobs for next season.
 
SportsNut said:
Good points fellas . Like the new contributors as well ...

Zona looks attractive but as I said not jumping the gun on anything (except playing Minny already) until motivation is clear , coaches open their mouths a bit and we see the weather for Sunday in NE. Surely dont expect Zona to tough out up in cold ass NE ...so your right cautious is best. I would just hate to think Zona is resting players after getting their ass handed to them . Does that mean they dont mind going into the playoffs losing 3 straight and 4 of 5 ?? havent checked so I assume they cant improve their seeding ? Good stuff to keep in mind and out in the open...

Agree that Tenny w/o Haynesworth has not shown well . Would assume he last prolonged absence was after the HEAD STOMP but not certain w/o checking . I just think the difference is now he is a name player and everyone kind of is aware of this . So its gets priced into the line probably at double the rate it should be . Pitt has barely scored vs teams with decent defenses think @ Wash and @ Cle so does his absence take them from top3 in the NFL to not even slightily above avg ? Certainly is that type of player but hope one player is overcome when you have a coaching staff like Tenny ...The main reason Tenny attracts me is Pitt is not playing that well and off 3 Super Bowl like wins @ NE , vs Dallas and @ Balt now the have @ Tenny . Which they catch a break because of the 2 injuries but it might just what they needed to look attractive to us bettors..I dont knwo can they keep catching breaks ?? My concern only lean tenny not etched in stone...

Motivation for Chicago is would say they HATE eachother . Lovie's goal was always beat GB and they did well the first bunch of meetings until finally GB beat them this year. I think the one thing to remember is GB lost a bunch of close games but had to win all of them to cover . Technically they dont here . Not tthat I would bet GB +4 thinking the best they do is lose by 3 especially on MNF with the SU winner angles...It's just hard for me to say NO is better then GB...think they are about the same and NO should have bet the Bears they just amde some timely plays ...

So for me interest is there because I see GB as equal to NO for the most part and now that they pressure of winning to get to the playoffs is gone they can just play with nothing to lose and ruin the Bears chances IMO a hated rival...:shake:
Click to expand...

SN, Haynesworth missed 3 games last year and the Titans run defense fell apart. Gave up around 78 yards rushing a game when Haynesworth did play and the 3 games he didn't they gave 166 to Jacksonville (L, 13-28), 166 at Denver (L, 20-34), and 148 at Cincinnati (L, 6-35). Granted the Steelers can't run the ball well at all and the Titans defense is overall better with a deeper D-Line, but these are still big numbers that were put up on the Titans without him.
 
Colts had 21 at half last week and 31 in the game ...only time past 7 or 8 below 23 was ur Browns..lol..

I hear the SB comment . Then I looked at the 5 wins they have. They scored inside the last minute to win @ Indy , won in OT vs Houston , won inside the 2 minute warning vs GB , won @ Denver when the Broncos where falling apart by a TD and won @ Det....

Think 3 of the wins they were very lucky to pull out ..just think Jags 2nd teamers are starting leaving not sure what ...

definetly not highly interested in this game...just tossing out how weak Jax is ...
 
orange&white said:
SN, Haynesworth missed 3 games last year and the Titans run defense fell apart. Gave up around 78 yards rushing a game when Haynesworth did play and the 3 games he didn't they gave 166 to Jacksonville (L, 13-28), 166 at Denver (L, 20-34), and 148 at Cincinnati (L, 6-35). Granted the Steelers can't run the ball well at all and the Titans defense is overall better with a deeper D-Line, but these are still big numbers that were put up on the Titans without him.
Click to expand...

Thanks will have to look at that . Liking Tenny is based on contrarian mentality not thinking his absence wont be felt just maybe not to the depth it looks like . If that makes any sense...will look more into this...Jags were #2 in the NFL in rushing last year I know that much..:shake:
 
definetly not highly interested in this game...just tossing out how weak Jax is ...
<!-- / message --> <!-- sig -->
Agree completely on both points.
 
Small play for me on the Colts, you guys sold me. Probably a reverse with the under too.

I'm gonna go sit my ass at a video poker machine all day. :cheers:
 
One big disadvantage in handicapping this contest is " whose going to be the officiating crew tonight ? "

There is no doubt the Colts will get the upper hand in the calls tonight, but to what degree ?

The NFL wants the Colts to succeed even at the cost of not calling a fair game. The NFL has been guilty of giving the Colts some generous calls in the past few years especially nearing and in playoff time. Peyton Manning is their NFL poster boy.

Let,s hope the game is called fair and square and it,s not decided by the yellow hankie. Colts are too good as it is , they don,t need any assistance.

Leaning Jax but leery.
 
If Colts WIN here they will rest players in Week 17


Dungy will rest any player with a minor injury and most of his important starters. It means that Peyton Manning, who has thrown for 3,543 yards through 14 games, is unlikely to reach 4,000 for the ninth time. And Reggie Wayne, who has improved his yardage numbers in each of his seven NFL seasons, will see his first regression. Dec. 18 - 10:24 am et

- This year Jags have allowed 22 passing TDs tied for 4th most in the League.

Colts Injuries(starters/key) :
-WR Marvin Harrison OUT
-DT Eric Foster OUT (missed wk 15 as well)
-DT Kenyatta Dawson Questionable (missed last 2 weeks)
-S Antwan Bethea QUESTIONABLE should play though
-RB Joseph Addai QUESTIONABLE likely to share carries with Rhodes
-LB Gary Brackett OUT(missed L2 weeks)
-LB Tyjuan Hagler Questionable should return but in reserve role
-S Bob Sanders Questionable appears likely to see limited role if even active
-KR Pierre Garcon missed last week due to a death in the family would guess he is back this week and likely to return kicks

Freddy Keiaho , Dallas Clark , Dwight Freeney all listed as QUESTIONABLE but expected to play

OL Tony Ugoh , Charlie Johnson and Jeff Saturday all appear to be fine and will play ..

I hink Jags are still fairly solid against the run but there issue has been generating no pass rush and the pass defense . As I said 22 TD passes allowed already this season. They have 13 INTs by Mathis had 4 of them . Harrison is out but Peyton has 4 straight games now where he has completed at least 70% of his passes . The issue is only SD is a solid team and he avgd just 5.8 yds per pass. He threw 2 picks @ Cle but think 1 was a Hail Mary. Last batch of games he is 13 TDs to 3 Ints since @ Tenny . Indy is banged up and losing ERic Foster hurts especially with Dawson banged up. Jones-Drew has always fared well vs the Colts defense and gets a weaker version especially if Bob Sanders is limited as reported . He is also playing for a contract so on the surface a good matchup for him as well .

While Indy has not performed well this year away they also had 3 top defenses @ Pitt , @ minny , @Tenny then 3 second tier defenses in @ GB (though their pass DEF ranked high all season until NO game, @ SD , @ Cle with the only soft defense being @ Houston which tends to be medicore at home. All year its been injuries to the OL and RBs so no suprise they have struggled at times.

Jags Pass defense allows 7.6 yds per pass and they are tied for Top6 in pass plays allowed 20 yards or more(43 allowed with 46 being 2nd place) and lead the NFL with 14 plays allowed of 40 or more ayrds.

Thought it was interesting that the only teams who have seen less pass attempts then Jax 406 were Oak 402 , STL 389 , Det 372 probably the 3 worst teams in the NFL. Which makes the BIG plays allowed scarier , the TD allowed as well because the 3 teams below them allowed 20,19 and 17 but makes the INTs looks solid except that Mathis their best cover man had 4 and is out now...

Just some INFO to put in presepctive how poorly the Jags have been vs the PASS this season. Colts actually only 5 TDs allowed vs 14 INTs whichbest in the league still alow 6.7 yds per pass..

Also remember CLE game was in pretty cold weather and that has been an achilles for Indy for years remember the NE scenario earlier this decade...

Still no real opinion here on the game but still expect Indy to win so exploring 2 two teaser route(or 2 team ML parlay if it the risk is lesser or payout better) and 3 team parlays...

My take on the line dropping to -6 from -6.5 was due to the sudden change in outlook for Addai and Sanders roles in this game . They went from probable and I guess expected to resume their normal roles to about 50-50 to play and probably not their full starting roles...so it was the books adjusting not some mysterious line move.....

:cheers:










 
If you are going to tease Indy with 2 teams definetly better to play them in a ML parlay . Pinnacle has the ML at -245 (So say -250range ) and if you want to fade the Rams and use SF ML also at -245 you would get just a penny or two less then a dollar for dollar return . Rather then paying -1.20 to win a 1.00 in a 2 team teaser. Even at -250 for both which is probably what is out there you lose just 4 cents so a 1.20 that you risk on the teaser for the 1.00 return you would get about 1.15 here...

Possible interest in a 4 team ML parlay if we use the 2 teams above fade OAK and take Houston ML -300 and Vikings ML is a play that stands out to me at -165. Now laying laying the points @ -110 is going to pay 10 to 1 but you can avoid road chalk in 3 games and still get 3.25(3.20) returned for every dollar risked and possibly a tad worse if the line is a nickel or dime worse here and there..

Just if your looking to play Indy to secure a playoff spot and maybe fade some of the worst teams in the NFL(Oak and STL) and Minny ML is my play but you can sub anything in their...total , underdog maybe Pitt ML if thats who you like since its cheaper then Minny(not a fan of Pitt though this week )

Probably worth a 3 team teaser if you want to do just Indy (+4) , SF (+4.5) and (Houston +3 obviously 3.5 would be very key ) ...you get some key numbers for that 1.20 risk and the ML parlay would only play slightily less then 2x better then the teaser ...

Just some food for thought:cheers:

 
Pinnacle dropping the line

Now....

<table style="width: 100%;" border="0"><tbody><tr class="AD1"><td>
</td><td>-5.5 -102</td><td>-235</td><td>OVER 43.5 -103</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
Spartan said:
Pinnacle dropping the line

Now....

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=AD1><TD>

</TD><TD>-5.5 -102</TD><TD>-235</TD><TD>OVER 43.5 -103</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Click to expand...

I'm not buying this line movement one bit. If there ever was a case where they are messing with your head by moving a number, I think this is it.
 
I wont get to into this line move either . The game held 6.5 for a long time and I doubt professional bettors are making them moving it at this point . I know we all tend to be aware of %s but again given Indys track record and non cover and Jags stealinga win which KILLED the public IMO not hard to believe alot people think the points are to many - hence some Jax action today ....just my opinion on the subject ...


:cheers:
 
Bob is moving the line, glad I'm on the same side as him. he likes the under and jags as a best bet at +3 or more. under his free analysis.
 
SportsNut said:
I wont get to into this line move either . The game held 6.5 for a long time and I doubt professional bettors are making them moving it at this point . I know we all tend to be aware of %s but again given Indys track record and non cover and Jags stealinga win which KILLED the public IMO not hard to believe alot people think the points are to many - hence some Jax action today ....just my opinion on the subject ...


:cheers:
Click to expand...


Sb global, Sportbet and Matchbook all at 5.5 now..

If you doubt pro bettors are moving the line.....Could it be the books are creating false steam for bettors who are undecided now?
 
From the Files of SN:

Indy playing its last ROAD game of the year and most of us are aware of how they stole a few of them .

However its actually even suprising to me when we look @ Indy 1st H's on the road this year . Why 1st Half ? Kinda commonsense if they are known to be stealing a few games late they must have been trailing in the game.

@ Minnesota
Trailed 9-0

@Houston
Trailed 17-10

@GB
Trailed 17-7

@Tenny
Led 7-6

@ Pitt
Trailed 17-14

@SD
TIED 10-10

@ CLE
Trailed 6-3

at the HALF Indy is 1-5-1 SU not even ATS! More suprising is they have scored 50 points in 7 1st H or a tad above 7 pts per (7.15apprx)

Even crazier is the 2nd Q's in these games . Same order as posted above starting with Minny ending @ Cle:

Lost 3-0

Lost 17-0

Lost 14-0

Lost 3-0

Lost 10-7

Lost 10-7

Lost 3-0

They have LOST every 2nd Q on the road this season . They didnt even score a point in the 2nd Q (away) until @ Pitt when they scored a TD less then seconds before halftime . The only other points in the 2nd Q was a TD a week later @ SD with 38 seconds left before halftime .

They are 0-7 SU in 2nd Q and out scored 60-14

1st Quarter a tad better ..only lost 6-0 @ Minny . Otherwise 2 Ties , 1 won by a FG , twice by 4 pts(7-3 both times) and once they won 10-0(@ Houston odd as it is seems)..so 4-1-2 SU.

What this means I truly have NO idea but obviously stuck out as amazing and odd....Being its game 8 it wouldnt suprise me to see these trends end like CLE now allowing a 1st Q point away all season until MNF @ Philly.....

:cheers:



 
Spartan said:
Sb global, Sportbet and Matchbook all at 5.5 now..

If you doubt pro bettors are moving the line.....Could it be the books are creating false steam for bettors who are undecided now?
Click to expand...

If its a game that you arent confident in then I understand the concern and teh shadow of doubt it casts.

My answer to your question would be I just think given Indy's track record in 2008 , the fact the were tied with the Lions in the 4th Quarter and did not cover or really threaten to cover , and Jags were a suprising SU win as it seemed the who world thought GB was a layup to win . That usually makes alot of people flip sides creating more Jax bettors then we might anticipate or see on certain forums . It's only my opinion though and just throwing out how I am taking the drop. Also factoring in Jax prior history of always playing Indy tight .

The issue with %s is we see 80-85% on Indy and say that was on 20,000 -25000 of the 44,000+ bets tallied.

Say 80% of 20K thats 16000K on Indy . That leaves 25K placed today theoritically .

Now the % is more like 75% but some Jax ML plays have come in at a higher rate as well. So to get 75% of 44K we need about 33 K Indy tickets and we theoritically had 16K already so that means 17K more of the 24-25K left and we are at about 68% with the Jags Ml tickets figure 65-67% are on Indy .....

Seems like a wide gap for a line to drop but who the take could be alot closer on the game . The avg bettor could making 60 bets on Indy and 100 on Jax . Its really not an indication of sharp money just how easy it can be to manipulate betting %s without knowing who is betting what amounts...

The way I see there is going to be more Indy regardless .So if most of the bets today are more like 65-67% on indy then its possible its just reflecting the action....

The good sign is the % for Indy has dropped as has the price so that seems to indicate somewhat normal behavior ...

Truly I have no idea and I am just guessing so take it FWIW ...:shake:

 
Or say there was 30K bets in on thsi game when the % was 80% that means 24-25K were on the Colts . Now @ 75% for 45 K bets you need that 33K or so to get that level . Which means of the 15 K placed today 8-9K were on Indy ...so that means if 8500 of the 1500K today are on Indy its really only 56-57% on the Colts today...
 
Even now just 3K bets more added and went down to 72% Colts from 75% just a few minutes ago....

Its just a puzzle and you have to do your best to decipher . Its more concerning when more bets are coming in and the % is going up and the line isnt reacting the way it should.....
 
Spartan said:
Sb global, Sportbet and Matchbook all at 5.5 now..

If you doubt pro bettors are moving the line.....Could it be the books are creating false steam for bettors who are undecided now?
Click to expand...

Can Pro bettors lose? If anything the line is going down meaning there is more value to Indy as the opening line was -6.

Steam and Pro bettors and all that talk is all bullshit--

So if a PRO bettor bets and moves the lines on Oakland, Rams, Cincy, cardinals and Browns, does it mean those teams are all of a sudden going to play better.

Lol Pro bettors, and steam is the funnies thing I have heard.

There is no way anyone can figure out who is betting what and what action is on a game. It is irrelevant.

PRO BETTORS dont win games, they dont play in the games, they do nothing, PRO bettor is a facad, a designation for a guy who happens to have a bankroll and bet bigger bets. He still loses.

Peyton and the colts will play as good as they can DR, Doofus or whatever his name is has no effect on anything.

All this movement by the books is created to confuse bettors and make them second guess themselves.

A bettor with a clear mind is a dangerous bettor and can win over 60% of his bets easily,without a doubt I am convicned of that 100%.

This talk about everyone is on it, and Dr. Doofus and Pro bettors is irrelevant as the players decide the outcome on the field.

Perhaps if JAGS struggle Del RIO will bring in Dr. DOOFUS for a halftime speech since he seems sure that the Jags will cover tonight lol.
 
Look what a half point move has created, all kinds of theories about Dr. Doofus and PRO bettors and bigfoot laying a big bet or the Triads hammering the Jags come off it, it has already made people second guess their picks.

FWIW- books know how people react and adjust lines accordingly--

Game is played in jaxonville, its not played in the offshore books lines department and in FORUMS where conspiracy theories surface when lines go down.

Injuries are different, they are legit reason for line movements.
 
Steam won last week when Phil went from -14 to - 16 and Miami dropped from Mia-7 to 5.5.
Of the other end Atl went up from -3 to -5 and Arz went from -3 to -4.5 and both didn,t cover.

I do think these sportsbook make a side on which side they would like. For instance If you like the Colts in a tease at Pinnacle.

You can get a 7 pt tease Colts +1.5 and over 36.5. at 6/5 juice.

So if your liking the colts. Pinnacle is giving you the best offer invite. They want the Indy action.
 
Parlays :

Colts ML -235 and SF ML -235 Parlay pays 1.03{Level2}

Colts ML , SF ML , Texans ML -300 and Vikings ML -170 pays 3.30{Level1}

Colts ML , Wake Forest ML -145 , Vikings ML -170 , Col State +125 pays 8.75 {Level 1}

Teaser:
Colts +0.5 and Under 49.5 {Level1}

Others:

1st Quarter Under 7.5 +100 {Level1}

1st Half Under 21.5 {Level2}

Under 20 Jags TT +100 {Level1}

Colts -5 -115 {Level1}

Leans :
3rd Quarter Over 7.5
1st H Colts -3 -110 or -3.5 +100 (fade the trend?)
2nd Quarter -0.5 Colts (fade the trend?)
4th Quarters Colts -0.5

Props:
Anthony Gonzalez Over 50.5 yards -170 {level1}
Under 4 sacks -150 {Level1}

Guess most of my plays are small here .

Given the COlts history on the road and Jags struggle early in games on offense guess by default the 1st H Under is my strongest play on the list next to the 2 team ML parlay with SF and Indy......

Good Luck all :cheers:


 
Spartan said:
Steam won last week when Phil went from -14 to - 16 and Miami dropped from Mia-7 to 5.5.
Of the other end Atl went up from -3 to -5 and Arz went from -3 to -4.5 and both didn,t cover.

I do think these sportsbook make a side on which side they would like. For instance If you like the Colts in a tease at Pinnacle.

You can get a 7 pt tease Colts +1.5 and over 36.5. at 6/5 juice.

So if your liking the colts. Pinnacle is giving you the best offer invite. They want the Indy action.
Click to expand...

I am with you Spartan. You can get a feel for what the books want at times . Would say the 2 teams that won were steam or close to it . Like I said SF was minus Gore and the line continued to drop the natural reaction would be to rise . ATL was because of the QB switch for TB as Garcia was absent and after ARI bounced back the world loved the Cards . Definetly saw ARIZ and GB as two of the most 1 sided plays of the week.....

With Pinnacle since they have the tightest markets traditionally I feel there moves best reflect the action in the market . If they look to attract Indy money its IMO from previous experiences that is because they are taking in more Jags money ....:shake:

There was also NE who went from -7 to -6.5 and crushed OAK

Good Luck today :cheers:
 
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