Main Slate is down to 9 games, I'll try to identify where I'm discussing main slate, if not, its out of all 16.
1PM'S
NYJ/MIA
NYJ DVOA Matchup is meh vs P/RB D.
MIA DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
Pace of play is 4th. O/U is 8th of the main slate (out of 9).
Tua is T-10th worst ASR matchup, 7th of M/S.
Carter? has the 4th worst ALY matchup (3rd of M/S), Gaskin? has the T-10th worth ALY matchup (T-7th of M/S)
Laird/Lindsay/Brown are out of the backfield. Gaskin/Ahmed are only 2 left and had about a 65/35 split in their last game. No Waddle and his 80%~ snap share. Wilson had 58% of snaps in their last bout (3rd highest WR),and still had 8 targets, I think all receive a boost, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him at 10+.... the game script is the worry. While Gesicki/Parker can be used too, I think Gaskin is my favorite play. Last time they play he had 23 carries and 4 targets (96 yards/1 TD) and had his highest snap share of the season, its hard not to see that being his floor.... with a TD, he can easily score 20+.
Crowder and Cole were the 1/2 with 91%/83% snap share last week. Still no Moore. But my interest is where to gauge Carter's usage. I don't think he'll be at his high of 70% of snaps, but I think 50-60% is a safe floor. They were clicking and funneling usage through him and moore when on the field, and with just 1 now, I can see him being utilized more often than not when on the field. I don't know his salary, but he isn't a bad idea in PPR formats.
Just one-offing this game most likely. ---- NYJ are one of three teams that have a top 10 matchup in ASR & ALY.
Do Note - NYJ - will be w/o OL Fant (he's doubtful) (1 of 4 with over 90%+ snaps for the year) and OL Tardif is Questionable who is the back-ups back-up to Beckton. They have 1 CB and 1 rookie LB out due to covid.
- MIA - Has 1 safety out with Covid.
CIN/DEN
CIN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, good vs P D.
DEN DVOA Matchup is good vs P D, meh vs RB D.
Pace of play is 16th (/16), and O/U is ranked T-5th out of 9 (3 through 8 are 44.5 to 43 points, not much difference)
Teddy is T-3rd worst ASR matchup, 2nd worst of M/S. Burrow is 5th worst ASR matchup, 3rd of M/S.
Mixon? has the 7th best ALY matchup, 3rd of M/S.
I'm putting the injuries first, my do notes will always pertain to just defensive players and O-Lineman. as I touch upon skill players in the discussion.
Do note - CIN - will be w/o one starting OL (Reiff), and his backup is Q. 1st week CB (Awuzie - big) is out, & LB (Johnston), 2nd week w/o LB (Wilson). 3rd week w/o CB (Phillips), and CB/LB Hargreaves/Bailey are both questionable.
- DEN - will probably be without 2 doubtful. LB/DE Young/Jones. They also have 3 defensemen questionable (CB/DE/S).
I feel like cincy is missing a ton of back 7 support... and may take a home run hitter or two of Sutton/Patrick/Juedy..... possibly fant too.
Chase is touching 96%+ snaps last 2 weeks... that's great, and I think you can spot start either of the big 2 (sorry boyd). But what do we do with Mixon? His snaps have actually decreased for the last 4 games since coming off the bye, hitting a low of 60% last week, Perine had 42%... Don't really want to pay that salary for a 60/40 split, possibly missing an Olineman too, and the projected game script (and I do think denver can win/play with a lead) doesn't favor him.
CAR/BUF
CAR DVOA Matchup is bad vs P/RB D.
BUF DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, and bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 7th. O/U is in the 3-8 group.
Hubbard? has the T-7th ALY matchup, T-5th for M/S.
Do note - CAR - Bouye (CB) is out, they may be getting 1 back from IR, but it's either a downgrade, or massive one.
- BUF - LB (Dodson) out again for 2nd week. They will be without Dawkins (OL) too, and he's been one of their best.
We already don't trust buffalo backs, and will now be without 1 lineman. PASS. We can take advantage of the air though. No sanders opens the floor up for Gabriel Davis at a reduced price, I think Diggs/Beasley are viable as well, especially with no Bouye, and possibly more. Diggs, Beasley, AND Davis all played over 80%+ of snaps last week (and that was with a partial gameplay of sanders - 32% snaps).
Should be mentioned that knox is pretty much an every down TE, so he should be considered, but I probably am looking for something else at that position. TE's are in the MEH range of fantasy points against Carolina's D.
4 Carries, 4 Targets, 33 total yards. 59% of snaps
10 Carries, 0 Targets, 33 total yards. 39% of snaps
Carolina is 12 point dogs, which back above would you rather have? ..... Abdullah is the top one, Chubba is the bottom. I think it's an avoid altogether, especially with TD vulture CAM.... but for fantasy purposes, I wouldn't be starting hubbard in fantasy football.
Moore is Q, but I think Moore/Anderson can be one-off, or a bring back option with a buffalo game stack (maybe abdullah if you're multientering it and really want to attack this game).
ARI/DET
ARI DVOA Matchup is great vs P/RB D.
DET DVOA Matchup is meh vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is 10th, O/U is #1.
Goff has the 9th worst ASR matchup, 6th of M/S. Kyler has T-6th best ASR matchup, T-3rd M/S.
Jamal Williams? (Can I get an update here) has the 10th best ALY matchup.
Do Note - ARI - will be missing CB (Alford - big loss), as well as C (Hudson - who's their top rated OL). They have a ton of D-Lineman that are questionable.
- DET - Will be w/o LB (Okwara) for 2nd week, and S (Elliott) for first week. 3 other defensemen questionable. 1 Starting OLineman Q.
I want to know whats going on with jamal williams. If he's active, I like him, if not, I kind of like Reynolds. He did will on the ground and was targeted (just twice) but more than his counterpart through the air. He played 46% of snaps (not by much, but most of all backs).
No hockenson boosts all others targets (including backs).... If reynolds misses, St.brown/Raymond see upticks in snaps (And should already), all 3 were around 70% of snaps.
Rondale moore not long ago had 11 targets on 39% of snaps, without DHop (Wk 11 - ironically). Also odd, he was the 4th WR in snap share. Wesley??? was the WR 3 with 76% of snaps, he hasn't seen the field since. I think moore should spring up to 60%~ range atleast, the only negative thing is the possible gamescript. Ertz health needs to be monitored too.
Now if connor is out, Edmonds could be solid, if both are in... it should reduce ownership, not sure what route I'd take though.
DAL/NYG
DAL DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
NYG DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, bad vs P D.
Pace of play is T-1st (1st for M/S), O/U is in the 3-8 group.
Glennon? has the 8th ASR matchup, 5th of M/S. Dak has the 5th best ASR matchup, 2nd of M/S.
Do Note - DAL - No Ty Smith, 2nd best OLineman.
- NYG - No S (McKinney), 2nd week w/o LB (Brown), 3rd week w/o CB (Jackson), No CB (Robinson), No S (Reed), DE/DT (Williams/Johnson) are questionable. OUCH. OL (Bredson) is doubtful, he has been their 6th man past 2 weeks.
No Ross, No Toney, possibly no Shep. Golladay/Slayton can be considered. Engram has seen his snaps decline since bye 90/90/82/74%, and he just isn't consistent.
Barkley/Booker played 55/41% of snaps. I can see both outpacing there projections, just sucks they're both involved in running & passing, so its hard to gauge how much each will play, and when. The double digit spread makes me think booker does a bit more than barkley (just because of health preservation)... but its tough to trust either.
With or without pollard, zeke is at 2/3's of snaps.... he didn't see an increase workload last week, clement just became pollard (in terms of snaps). He can still be considered in a plus matchup, and great script. I think Cooper/Lamb/Gallup with Dak have a path to an insane game, if NYG can keep up... thats a big if, and I'm not counting on it, but doing a game stack in this scenario could propel you if it ends up being a shootout, especially with the giants being cheap and concentrated with the missing WRs.
TEN/PIT
TEN DVOA Matchup is great vs RB D, meh vs P D.
PIT DVOA Matchup is good vs RB D, meh vs P D.
Pace of play is 11th. O/U is in the 3-8.
Tanny has the 2nd worst ASR matchup, worst of M/S.
Najee has the T-3rd worst ALY matchup, 2nd of M/S. Foreman is T-10th worst, T-7th of M/S.
Do Note - TEN - is missing 5 defenseman DT/DT/CB/LB/LB (Murchinson/Tart/Jenkins/Long/Dupree). OLineman Saffold is out (and one of their better rated), and his replacement last week is questionable.
- PIT - Missing a LB/DT (Johnson/Adams) - Haden and Buggs Q.
So Foreman/Hilliard/McNichols played 32/34/38% of snaps respectively. I want to back the backfield with their DVOA matchup, but who?!... keep in mind they played with a lead throughout in the last matchup and McNichols STILLL had the most snaps.... if they play from behind at all, you'd think it would lean more his way.
Same sitch, different pos. Pruitt/Firkser/Swaim, 46/42/76% of snaps..... all had atleast 3 targets. Womp.
I want to trust Julio, he had 6 targets on 45% of snaps. I think that number is supressed because of returning from injury+convenient lead throughout last week.... I think if they fall behind plus another week under his belt, that number can get to 70% range. Volume wise it could be nice if you project that could of script. Not sure of his price.
Najee right back to his 95%+ of snaps... does everything, and should be considered. It looks like RayRay has surpassed claypool. Diontae is still the double digit target king, especially with all those missing players... but Two games in a row with more snaps than Claypool (for ray ray).... Ray Ray had 67/85%, claypool had 63/59%, not sure if he missed time due to ingame injury though, but I'd rather have mccloud at supressed ownership/better opportunity.
