Week 15 NFL




S

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
We have a Thursday Nite and Saturday game plus the regular slate.....


Thursday Nite....

SF @ Seattle -

Darrell Jackson is OUT but the passing game has so many weapons ...Branch , Burleson , Engram (possibly?) , Hackett , Stevans ... Seattle is looking for revenge after losing in SF earlier with Seneca Wallace

The Seahawks are home and looking to clinch the division . SF on the road has allowed a TON of points...41 (twice) , 34 (twice) , 20 and 13...(Rams & Lions...talented but mistake prone O's)...

The Hawks have had defensive issues of their own as 5 straight and 10 of 11 opponents have scored at least 20...the only one not to was a SHUTOUT of the Andrew Walter led Raiders on MNF.... SF best weapon is Frank Gore and teams have gashed SEA for 4.6 yds per carry at home...Gore 212 1st meeting on 24carries..

So basically we should see some offense as the over 42.5 looks very enticing ...what I am interested is in the Team Total for Seattle....1st H one is 14 which I like but am not crazy about...

Think Sea looks good in a teaser with say the Ravens and there are many 3rd options...Chi -3 or even Over 32.5 Sea....Not sure I wantto lay -10 though but lean heavily that well.....remember SF has struggled to score on the road ...last 2 years in SEA 75-3 Hawks!

Possibility of high winds has left me with no choice but till wait till Thursday before I decide to pass or play...


Sunday

Titans +3.5 -109 (XLarge) +170 (Small)

Vince Young continues to pull off miracles. He is 8-1 ATS , 6-3 SU with 2 1 pt losses since his starting debut vs Dallas. As many have said the man is just a winner. The one team to beat up on Tenny?? You guessed it....the Jaguars.....

The Jags have performed poorly as road chalk this year and generally been a much better team at home. On the heels of there Super Bowl win versus Indy I do expect some sort of letdown. Jas are 2-3 L5 in Tenny with both wins by 3....basically Jax was 3 pts or better favs in Wash , Buff and Houtson and are 0-3 SU.

To further its running game Chris Brown became part of the rotation in Houston with 4c for 44 yds...

Huge for Tenny trying to get to .500 @ 7-7 while Jax have NE on deck but really could anyone overlook Tenny at the moment?? Jax only 2-4 away defeating Philly and Miami with key players injured..Ronnie Brown and McNabb getting hurt early in the game....


Buffalo ML -111 (Large)...just be patient with Buff injuries

Obviously you have to like the idea of fading a warm weather team playing in Buffalo in Dec..( looks messy but warm low 50's not what I expected) It helps that Bills are 4-1 SU past 5 and 5-0 ATS versus Miami...

You have Ronnie Brown who has been out 2 weeks and Chris Chambers(8 catches past 3 years n Buffalo) who tweaked his knee last week. Obviously Miami is off a huge win and now traveling. The DEFENSE has been there key all season simply shutting down opponents....take out 1 carry and Morris was 24c for 79yds..

Buffalo seems to be getting healthy on defense as well...interestingly its been awhile since Miami has allowed 20 pts on the road.....which mean I have to lean towards the under here...past3 years in buff we have seen less then 34 pts

Odd to say but buffalo is the better offense and I think they are growing confident...Losman said tehy want to prove they have the personnel on offense to get it done...

Redskins +10 -114 (XLarge) ML +412 (Value)

The Saints showed they are for real spanking the Boys on TV!! However the Skins are flying under the radar IMO despite playing for next year. Campbell has been solid but like any young QB has made a few costly mistakes. They outgained the Eagles in yards by over 150++ , Betts is becoming a beast with 177 on the ground, the Skins had a 90 YD TD drive and settled for 4 FGS. There was also the Pick 6 thrown by Campbell that took at least 3 pts off the board for the Skins(10 pt tunaround)...the previous week a missed FG and 2 INT's inside the opponents 20...

The biggest spreads for NO have been -7 against SF and TB two teams who I would consider below Wash...The Saints offense has been on fire scoring 31 + in 5 of 6 games but despite struggling vs the run with Springs healthy the Skins pass defense has been solid of late...

The Skins ability to run the ball also aid the defense keeping it fresh and basically just keping the ball away from NO offense. The Saints have allowed 150 ++ yds rushing( 6.0 YPC) against a team with 177 per past 3...

At the end of the day I just feel Wash wil keep this competitive and hang around.....one week +7 the next week -10...?? no less to a team WASH also beat no matter how lucky....a TD was fair IMO...so I will take the gravy...

Cheifs +9 -110 (medium / Large) ML +360 (Value)

I faded KC last week cause I didnt think they should ba favored . Here I dont think SD should be such big chalk and they havent played well outside of the DEN gane as big chalk...we all know whats going down with Denver so it wasnt a suprise really...Teams like Oak and Cle have hung around with SD at home. True , they Chargers have had injury woes on defense...

What I like is Green has been able to muster a few nice games in the past vs SD defense...Larry Johnson and LT are the best backs in the league...

basically I dont see why this is bigger then a TD...despite there back to back losses they are a quality team....again look for a competitive game.....the Denver game was the first to be decided by 10 pts in the previous 5...

Looking at the rest stilll
 
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good health to you......i'm with you on the New Orleans/Washington spread.

as a rule, i don't bet on saints games unless there is a silly number involved.
While this week's number is not quite as silly as last week's, it looks like i'll have money on a saints game for the second straight week.
 
BeASaint said:
good health to you......i'm with you on the New Orleans/Washington spread.

as a rule, i don't bet on saints games unless there is a silly number involved.
While this week's number is not quite as silly as last week's, it looks like i'll have money on a saints game for the second straight week.
Click to expand...

Thanks and same to you....
 
Well it appears strong winds are concern in Seattle along with some bad weather....

The total is all the way down to 40.5. As I repeatedly say with these weather factor moves just be patient and wait to see if the adjustment is correct. These are not line moves they are adjustments with books protecting themselves .....alot of the time they are early overreactions think Sea/GB and Pitt / Cle...but there are times they are justified...25MPH++ winds make it real hard to throw the ball...So wait on the INFO....
 
I look through this list and I don't see the Eagles or the Eagles ML.

Do you think there's a problem with the site, maybe I should contact the admin, because I'm obviously not seeing the whole post.

=)
 
I do like Philly was just looking it over still....wanted to get the definites out of the way...

Wait I have a post for you...
 
How bout a response to Joe Pub for why Ravens are -11..??

1) The fact we have history / precedentg is helpful...Balt was -7 @ cle. Now I agree absurd line banged Browns atht day....how far off was it..?? For arguements sake lets say we feel -4 was fair...what does that translate to in Balt ..depending on what home field is worth 3 /3.5...that would make it -10-11..

2) Injuries to Frye put Anderson on the road and generally is a weaker QB... since then they have also lost defensive personnel...so basically the offense is in worse shape and so is the browns defense then the 1st meeting.....

3) Ravens were -3 vs Pitt but shut them down and won ez 27-0...that line was soft IMO as I had played Balt at home...probably should have been about -4.5...not less then that....Pitt just played Cle and that line was soft IMO had a huge play on Pitt...should have been -9 or -10 even with Steelers missing stars.....so if that game should have been -9.5 say and ravens generally are 1.5 stronger then Pitt anything in the 10 to 11 range IMO makes sense......

4) ravens D most of the games 14 or less pts allowed...last 4 games 33 pts total allowed..three of the past 4 Cle games have seen 7pts , shutout , and 6 pts of 20 on offense.. very likely browns doint get to 14...very likely they cant crack 10 points.... ravens have scored 20 + in 7 of past 8 games.....browns allowed 24++ last month and 3 of those were home...

5) Jamal Lewis isnt a beast anymore but Browns Run Def away...186 yds per and 5.9YPC....you cant run on Balt which leaves the offense in the same scenario...settling for short passes...ANderson might have more time but gets a better defense....

At the end of the day I see no reason why ravens dont get 24 points...if they get 27,28 they should definetly cover....See a possible shutout but probably 7 pt maybe 20 pt effort.....

Really just another game like the one in Pitt versus a much better team...if you lay 7 in there house then almost certainly you will lay DD's regardless of outcome...simplistic approach but this game should have a 2 TD or better margin......

Basically the Ravens winning in KC takes the UNDERVALUE aspect away from them...personallyI felt no way KC should be -3...and with Frye neing OUT you lose the value in Cle as a dog......so a fair line IMO
 
Oh, I see, it's the old okey-doak, show 'em the right and then hit him with the left right in the Cleveland.

You're a sneaky one, Mr. Grinch.

But if you wanna talk Brownies, let's do it.

Before I start in, let me just say, I agree with a lot of your points.

However, your first point doesn't work for me. Simply because the line last time was off by a good three or four points doesn't justify tacking the home three onto it for the next game. Because, to me, that's like saying "I know Van Wilder was a bad idea, but just wait until you see what we do in the sequel." If one line is bad, using it as a starting point for the next line doesn't work for me.

Likewise, saying that the Pittsburgh line was soft doesn't work for me either. I got baited into actually taking the Steelers in that game mostly because that line was so soft and, well, I was incredibly wrong. But to say, 'well, we were soft on the Pittsburgh line so let's be hard on the Cleveland line' doesn't do it for me.

I think the best arguments to be made for why this line is artificially high involve the Browns' QB situation, their injuries on defense, and the switching of the play-calling in Baltimore.

That said, they had no idea what the Browns' QB situation was going to be when they put the line up. They never held this line. Had they, until it seemed more apparent that Anderson would play (a declaration which still I don't think has been officially made) then it would make more sense to me.

I think you do, however, hit on the key why this is a good bet for anything over 7 for a couple of reasons. The biggest one, I think, is actually Baltimore's offense. As you point out, as I've been impressed by ever since it started, under Billick this offense is scoring over 20 a game consistently and I see no reason why they can't replicate that here even though the Browns held them in check for three quarters last time.

Meanwhile, it's tough to see the Browns getting over 20 against this defense no matter who's at QB because it seems this defense is now about to make a statement down the stretch. Meanwhile the Browns lost Brian Russel, they lost Roye on the D-line, it's going to be tough.

I still think this line is inflated and if you saw 20-10 I wouldn't be surprised at all. But, sadly, I think the Ravens win and I have trouble seeing the Browns get to, let alone past, 13 points.

Find a way to get this down to a -3 and I would say you can likely load up on it. Sad, but true.
 
Nice response..

I understand your non belief in not using prior bad lines. However this is what I rely on heavily week to week. Looking at games and making my play simply based on where the line should or shouldnt be(most of the time).

While I can understand your view point there had to be a fair line for the 1st meeting...there also had to be a reason why one team was overvalued. I need to have the angles in place. My answers are not always correct but I need rationalization. Personally the first rule of thumb is anytime the Ravens travel and lay more then 3 points its a fade. While you seem to but into the fact firing Fassel has improved the offense I just dont see it. To me its been business as usual in Balt. Improved yardage is really not there and most of the scoring is still setup in some fashion from the defense..Which gets me back to why I fade Balt as road chalk. They still simply do not generate enough offense. On the road the opposing team is likely to have turnovers at crucial points. Which to me means less scoring opportunities for Balt.

So there has to be a starting point..? Why was Balt -7 in Cleveland? Simply put it was an overreaction to the Browns losing at home to a Saints team still w/o an identity and the fact Cle got smoked in Cincy. Also we had Balt walk into what was considered a good TB team and shut them out then host what we knew was a bad team and win 28-6. So Ravens D is clicking allowing just 6 points...Browns arent scoring...peopel say Ravens 20 something points...Anyway thats why we got -7...Then what should have the lin ebeen..?? I say -4 cause on a neutral field I felt Balt was 7 pt better. If youu look at other good teams who traveled to Cle they all were -3 or higher....so I feel confident 4 is fair...maybe not 100% correct or accurate but a starting point...

I assume you meant you got baited into Cle...Anyway is week to week we have soft lines , inflated lines and tight lines..Honestly this week around -10.5 we have a tight Ravens / Browns line..11 is fair..higher we starting getting abit ahead of ourselves...Point is every week we need to know what lines should be and I think for the most part I can figure out what is soft and what is fat.....So I am not saying anythinghere other then this line is where it should be...

With regards to what lines should be rarely will you even see a game off as much as FG...at times it happens but its rare...the biggest mistake all season I can remember was Chi @ Zona..I was all over Ari and the ML...cause I thought it was a good 5 pts off...mostly we are dealing with 2 pt differences...

You say artifically high but why is it high...?? Simple examples...look at what Cle was in other road games...look at the simple fact that catching 7 points at home is almost automatic if you play a rematch to be DD dogs on the road. If you can find a instance where its not I would like to see it...How bout Tenny catching 17 in Indy in a game that was off...again lines despite outcomes are rarely off by more then 3 points...so based on seeing the 17 in Indy I know..your gonna see 7 in Tenny give or a take a 1/2...we see 7.5......Just gets you to place to know what you should expect to see...doesnt even mean 7 was the right number but you know it doesnt look funny and dont misinterpt it...So my point is I fully expect even with Charlie Frye to see -9 or -10...healthy defense or not...what creates the value is the fact the D is banged up and the QB is injured...it doesnt really inflate the line IMO..the public is hard for Anderson so the adjustment is slight IMO..1/2 maybe 1 pt..play calling I dont see an improvement.....

Its tough to see the Browns cracking that 10-14 range...in all honesty what precedent has been shown that they can do it versus Balt..?? To me its almost useless that Cle should have won the 1st meeting...simply put cause unless we are talking a few NFL teams the home/ road difference is more then 3 points...


My feeling is simple on this game I would love -10...but I could have bought it...the -11 to me is to give us a useless decision...

If everything plays out like it should I would guess we see a 24-10 Balt win......

@ Pitt +7.5 L27-7 , @ ATL +9 w17-13 , @ cincy +10 L17-34 , @ Oak -1 W 24-21

Why do I mention this...balt played all these teams and was favored versus all at home....which means worst case they are equal to these teams...So whether you agree with the logic I think it works to figure out accuracy of spreads...if Balt is favored over cincy and Cincy was -10 then logically speaking unless something has chnaged it will be similiar.....

These are guidelines and parameters.....like every other aspect are indivually based...we can all tweak the numbers slightily different but should be in the same ball park....

Balt is a team peaking with a great defense at home. While Cle is a battered team playing a young QB.......a total mismatch on paper atthis point of the season IMO......Even a team that is generally a home dog of 3 + is going to be near 10 pt dogs...

I think it should all start with what is this line telling me and is it accurate or does it reflect something that really shouldnt be part of the equation. The betting public generally loses cause they simply dont know where a LINE should be....

Have to go play bball so I wont be back till later on....gives you some time to fire back....
 
I don't really have a ton to fire back with. A couple of things, though.

One, I did mean I got baited into taking the Steelers at Baltimore. I talked myself off Baltimore and into Pittsburgh that week simply because the line was so soft (that and other reasons).

Beyond that, I do mostly agree with what you're saying, I do think though that you might be drawing your lines from somewhere other than where I draw mine from--neither place being wrong.

You seem to be taking yours from say the first meeting and using more historical, factual elements to create yours. Whereas I, admittedly, use the psychology of it much much more.

I think in this case the line gets generated like this, Baltimore should be around a 7.5 favorite given that it's a division game, that these two teams matched in a FG game last time, given Cleveland's extra days to prepare. But putting it at 7.5 asks for Ravens money based on their impressive win last week and Cleveland's uninspired loss. It also ignores the historical DD wins by the Ravens in this spot and if the Ravens win by 14 again, it's a straight wager loss and a teaser loss.

So, let's avoid being too one-sided on the public favorite and put the bar nice and high, maybe it swings some money toward Cleveland, maybe it just keeps some people off Baltimore and the action can be split better. Also, putting it at 10.5 makes it a de facto 13/14 as 11 and 12 are basicallly dead numbers.

Thus, putting it here is, I think, smart by the books because it gives them some free numbers and basically makes it a two TD spread against a team Baltimore had problems with last time even though it was more than a few weeks ago.

Also, There's no reason for the Ravens to run it up, all they need to do is get a lead and sit on them. Do that, keep it at seven or ten, win the game, and you clinch the division.

Last, the reason I'm buying into Billick and the playcalling is, for whatever reason, as soon as they got Fassel out of there they've started to average over 20 a game. I don't know if one plus one makes two in that case, but I do know they're getting their points now unlike how it was early in the year. And, as I said, I see them likely getting them here and I think it's going to be real hard for the Browns to match 'em.
 
I have a response but I am exhausted.....I would ask you to read my post in the NBA forum in redBearde's thread about how bad the Det - Indy line was off....I felt that Indy shoul dhave been favored instead of dogged and it was biggest play of the nite.....

Its the same logic....lines are based on the same set of numbers , power rankings week to week...all they do is slightily adjust my performance and perception......its not 1 line or 1 previous line ....or a historical line its using every line associated with that team to find a value for it...

I can say this there is no way the rRavens would only be -7.5 in this game. There is no way extra rest for the Browns is a positive being factored in.....Balt is an upper echleon team and cle is a bottomfeeder at this point...

I absolutely agree with using pyschology. However your missing something here....the Browns are bad and the question becomes how high do we have to make them to get people off Balt and onto Cle...since I agree 11 and 12 are dead.....then thats my my point really 10-13 pts is basically the samething....people might foolishy say I would play Balt @ -10 but not 11 or 12...

This is a mismatch its a game the books arent supposed to make money on.....however its IMO not a bad line but an accurate one...all that means to me is there is nothing free in it...what happens on the field is going to be the deciding factor..

Gimme sometime I will have a better rebuttal...we think alike...very alike.....there are just some things that I believe are accurate we should discuss....
 
Thanks yanks....I did like the Over but I try to respect the adjustment. Now downto 38.5 and about to head further south, I would suggest caution. Most of the time these adjustments are semi-cautious overreactions. This seems to be the rare occasion where the weather report gets continually worse...now talking 50-70 MPH winds....half that is a huge problem.....I dont care who is running the ball if you allow the defense tolook run and stack the line it wont be easy to move the ball.....

Down to 38.5 if we see it maintain this and not creep back I woud say the wind will be a huge factor...and would expect this game to not break 30 points.....

By the way did you see the Melky and Proctor rumor for Mike Gonzalez as part of a 3way deal with ATL & Pitt..?? That is awful..

Joe Pub ~

Basically its like this and Vanzack stirred the pot with the sharp conversation. Generally speaking most bettors dont know or dont understand where a line should be or how its derived. This is where almost all the problems begin. I understand your stance of how you come up with a line but the truth is there is a very loose paper trail out there that will help you get into the linesmakers mentality. Lines tell you who is better then who...personal opinion generally should really only come into factor after you have established where the line should be. Its not quite as simple as a historical line or previous meeting but it incorporates that...Personally I try to figure out each teams values and make them interchangeable..We cant say a Raven and bengal team are equal but if they play each twice with the home team being -3 both times as long as there isnt one sides results you have to feel that number was fair...so that makes you believe home field is the difference in the spread & a neutral field has them at a PK....which theoritically means they are even. So if Cincy was -10 to Cleveland then it logical to think Balt would be -10...now its never that cut and dry......because a game played in Sept cant be weighed as heavily as one played 2 weeks ago...there is just alot of factors...if said team is repeatedly a home dog of 3 or 4 pts...you can bet when they travel they will be 8.9,10 pt dogs...the fcat they qere 7 pt home dogs says alot...it means on that day on a neutral field they are 10 pts worse....its inflated but you MUST IMO figure out by how much. now Balt has improved since that date and Cle regressed. Why does Pitt -7.5 look soft to Cle....part of it is Pitt was -4 in Cle...that number says pitt is basically 7 points better on a neutral field....so if that game goes to Pitt we should see -10..or so....Pitt loses 2 key players and while so did Cle...however new unknown QB Anderson leads a comeback and becomes overvalued based ona 1/2 of football....that misperception keeps the line away from -10 and at -7.5 cause peopel are buying into CLE being a better team with him...see the public loses causes its narrow minded...its like my friend who says when I took the Series 7 I study for only 8 days and got a 68 or something. His thinking if he studied harder he would pass because he was so close. he doesnt realize one attempt is not a valid sample size...he could barely study for 8 days and take the test again and geta 52....or he could study hard and get a 64....placing a value on ONE OUTCOME is what kills people...its why they tell you forgot about what happened last week...they say that cause the past is not a good indicator of the future....anyway my point was one outcome sways the line and perception but doesnt mean its correct and accurate...by using a season of spread to fond a teams value you get a better , truer indicator of what a line should be...just like if my friend took the Series 7 on 5 occassions with similiar circumstances ..maybe his perception would weigh all angles..

Basically there is no straight forward way to do anything but there is way to know what to expect and go from there....I love the perception angle you use....hell thats why I am playing Wash...misperception on both sides inflating the number....

The mystery leads people to start saying things like Traps and stuff when I usually chime in and say that line is correct....who knows..perfect example Dallas vs Indy...Cowboys should have been bigger favs I said it back then ....where the pyschology comes in is knowing the betting public will play a bad number.....

Do I feel balt is slightily overvalued now after defeating KC?? I do ... I felt that KC should have been -1 not -3....might be a silly reason to play agame but for me its enough I have faith in my ability to find the correct line....Against a good defense I just dont see Cle within 2 TDs right now. that doesnt mean I am juping to bet BALT cause I would like to see some Cle action to back it down...but really until this lione got to 13 I owuldnt see value in Cle from an bad line standpoint....
 
Still not sure if will get involved in this game.....

However I do have a TEASER(AKA SUCKER BET)
Hawks Even , Pats -1 , Ravens -1 (Large)

Basically you have Hawks looking for revenge and have defeated SF 75-3 past 2 seasons in SEA. You have NE off a SHUTOUT(always a good bounce back angle) playing at home versus a team who has I believe 1 road win last 15 games..., and you have the best defense in football(now that Chi has a few starters out) playing a young QB....And all THREE are at HOME
 
Holy blocks of text. I have something to add to all that, and will in a bit, but first, two things.

I'm interested in this 'paper trail.'

Two, I like your teaser. You may also want to consider this ML parlay:
Seattle
NE
Baltimore
SD

Pays about +103.
 
Joe P -

You know ONE of those four will fuck that teaser, dirty dogs that they are.
 
tipyerbartender said:
Joe P -

You know ONE of those four will fuck that teaser, dirty dogs that they are.
Click to expand...

SD would be my choice since I like KC....

Dude ...me ramble........NAH!
 
Tonite:

Under 19.5 -103 1st Half Seattle (Medium) Win +2.00
Under 39 -110 Seattle (Small) Pending
Sea -4 / Und 44.5 (Small) Teaser Pending

It just looks disgutsing in SEA....and I can only see the rain..
 
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Maybe, Tip, but the odds are good on far superior teams, all of whom are playing for something.

The two that feel most squishy to me are NE and SD. I do think they both win, but I think that SD game is a lot closer than that line. It was one of the first things I bet Sunday night when the lines opened. I'm kind of surprised it stayed there.

But here's what you have in those four. You have NE of a humiliating loss coming home, where they have really underperformed. Two different reasons to knuckle-down and take care of business against a team off a crushing home loss.

You have Seattle off a bad loss in a revenge situation, at home against an SF team that's not the same away from Candlestick.

You have Baltimore against an increasingly banged up Cleveland team, still competing for home field, looking to clinch their division, playing a rookie QB they themselves drafted.

And you have SD playing for home field against a KC team that was really manhandled last week.

All good teams who should take care of business with the SU win.
 
Wow....getting a little sentimental seeing Joe Public ,tipyerbartender and myself all in the same thread...
 
I just think 4's a lot to ask for in the NFL climate, any week, any year. It's not like you're getting 2-to-1 ... maybe Seattle and NE aren't sandbagging lately and aren't all that good and they just plain lose, shockingly ... maybe SD finally lays an egg against a KC team that should at the very least start the game with some intensity ... maybe Cleveland - well, you got me on Cleveland.

Funny, I do this in NBA and NCAA hoops, the ML parlays with home faves, and I like it, keeps me from sweating the free throws. But I usually go with 2 or 3 teams max. Not a big parlay fan in football, hasn't worked for me in the long run.
 
By the way, SN, I apologize for sort of hijacking your thread with all this line discussion.

As I said, this 'paper trail' interests me.

But beyond that let me go on record as saying I'm coming around to this Baltimore bet. You may have had a better handle on this earlier than I did, but have you seen the injury report here? Good grief, the Browns are down to like the practice squad.

D'Quell Jackson had surgery today on his turf toe, he's basically done for the year.

Northcutt separated his shoulder in the first quarter of the Steeler game last week. Way to gut it out, but he looks like he's out.

McGinnist, CB Leigh Bodden, and two D-linemen, Eason and big Ted Washington are all questionable.

Joe Andruzzi is doubtful, likely either out or severely hampered. That's already after losing Tucker for the year a couple of weeks ago.

Brian Russell CB is out and done for the year.

And just for good measure Derek Anderson is going to start the game.

I mean, it's nice that Braylon is going to be there, same with K2, whose knee has hit the wall for this season, by the way. But who's going to block and give Anderson time? Who is going to be there to stop anybody on defense?

F**king injuries.
 
Joe Public said:
Or maybe it will be the Seattle ML that f**ks the whole thing up.
Click to expand...

Amazing isnt it....

your never hijacking my threads...I long for these debates & discussions...

trying to workout my FRI NBA so I might not be able to fully respond till tmrw..

Just to let you know I am not so gung ho on Balt I just feel the line is where it should be... I did see they lost another LB...and saw Russell went down for good with the staph...

Will chat it up tmrw.....
 
Excellent discussions here Nut. Like the analysis and love the Skins play as well. I keep wanting to fade my boy VY, but it's costing me money. Gotta ride with the Mighty Titans. GL this weekend bro.
 
Thanks Smola! BOL!

Sat:

Cowboys -3 -125 (Medium)

I will be the first to admit normally I would be on ATL here. I think Dallas laying 3 might be a little much. However we all know whats going down in ATL ....

The key is also the ATL offense just hasnt done much last 2 and was LUCKY to win in TB. Dallas secondary has sucked and been repeatedly exploited chances are Vick & Co cannot exploit it....Dunn will probably play but I would think Norwood there big play back is OUT....Dallas has played well after losses this year...

While Dallas secondary has been exploited due to injuries (Hall less then 100%) but ATL's is the worst in the NFL (7.7 YPA)....
 
1 PM (some have previous comments as well)

Baltimore Ravens Over 22 -120 Team Total (Large )
Not all that crazy with laying this number so I chose the avenue. Its common knowledge how deplted this CLE Defense is so I wont bore anyone. The past 4 games they have allowed at least 24 pts and thats stretches back to 5 of 6 . The Ravens defense could score or setup easy points.....they have scored 24 ,26 and 27 past 3 at home..

Last 3 games the Defense has allowed on avg 444 yds , 9.3 yds per pass attempt and 175yds on the ground...

Det @ GB
I cant back the Pack as chalk despite winning like 13 straight @ Home vs DET...even with KJ out...The team ov 24.5 is intriguing as really is the game over but not touching s of now..

Hou @ NE
I am all about NE bouncing back here at home...However the Past have stunk to the tune of 0-3 ATS laying 10 or more at home thsi year....Since Game # 5 of this season in Dallas when they got smoked in the 2nd H the Texans have ben competitive in every game outside of the trip to NJ...covering twice as DD dogs...they are 3-5 SU with two tough losses (Buff and Tenn at home) and 2 losses that were less then a TD.....even the Lions gave NE a game...Who the hell can make heads or tails of a NE injury report...

NE best friend here is that they are 13-3-1 ATS after a SU loss..

Titans +3.5 -109 (XLarge) ML +170 (Small)

Looking for the letdown after defeating Indy . Combined with the revenge factor for Tenny and the VY factor. Helps that Jax has struggled laying pts away....There are 3 key injuries I am concerned about for Tenny the starting WRs Bennett and Jones , RB Henry and include Haynesworth in the discussion...

Bills ML -110(wait) (Large or XL)
Basically the Phins coming off a big home win and then traveling which is unlike the upset at Chi. They have played both games without Ronnie Brown at HOME so this is new territory. The DEFENSE has clearly carried this team. Losman was just given the vote of confidence for 2007...

The Phins avg just 5.8 yds per pass so the run game is particularily important and there stud is out...Chambers and Harrington abit banged up coming in...Bulls should have Spikes , McGee and Whitner back...would like to see Miami become favored....Most of teh Miami resurgence has happened at home...

Vikes -3-123(Medium)

The Jets only avg about 290 yards of offense away. There running game will struggle vs the Vikes run defense which leaves it to Pennington and the passing game....

Vikes have done a good job of running the ball past few weeks and NY allows almost 150 per away....

Bucs +14-105 (Medium or Large)ML +740(Small)
The TB defense cab esolid if it doesnt spend all day on the field. The Bears run defense has suffered with injuries to Harris and now a suspension to Tank Johnson. The secondary is banged up , the OL is banged up and so are stars Muhammad and Thomas Jones. They are a win on MNF and really cant have extra motivation on there side...teams like TB are dangerous cause they have nothing to lose...looks like we could have rain...

One thing I like is Gradkowski doesnt throw alot of picks...Odd is after both 40pt outburst this year Chi lost ATS....it always seem TB is one play away from putting pressure on teh home team and one of these weeks it will happen...

Panthers see +3 -104 (medium) ML +150(Value)

I dont think Pitt has proved much beating Tb amd Cle twice recently. Carolina is sliding but with Weinke now having a game under his belt they shouldnt be favored IMO...Look at Pitts disasterous season on the road...NYG will real close to choking last week and teh defense played an excellent 2nd H. We all know about Parkers struggle away...PAnthers only allow 5.4 YPA emaning ita on Big Ben to make plays...

Skins +10 -114 (XLarge) ML +412 (Value)

As I said previously I feel this line is an overreaction. Campbell has played well but made 'rookie' mistakes...He is also returninghoem so to speak and is looking forward to this game...

The Sainst are hot and have won 3 straight but they were only 7 pt favs to SF....Skins are still better then SF...

Hollis Thomas absence will continue to hurt the run defense and this a prime letdown spot....

Be back with the 4 PM's...
 
I'm on the other side of that Minnesota play for two big reasons, SN. One, Minnesota's banged up, the loss of Richardson the all-pro FB combined with Chester being banged up makes me worry about their running game and, really, their offense in general.

Beyond that, not only is the AFC better than the NFC, the Jets have played very well against the NFC North, beating the Lions and the Pack (at Lambeau) and hanging with the Bears in NY. They'll also very likely be running a similar scheme to what NE ran against Minny earlier in the game that sort of snipped Minny's nuts off for the rest of the year.

I actually have a season win total on the Vikings that could really use this game, but I actually think there's a lot of value in the ML the other way.

I wish that number you were laying in Baltimore was a 21, but I guess that would be a no-brainer.

I'll probably ride along with you on the Bills, but have a hard time seeing TB score tomorrow unless the Bears let them--which I kind of don't think they will.

Good value on Carolina, but I'll be off it.

Hope to see the Birds in your late games, good luck tomorrow.
 
4PM

Eagles +6 -105 (Large)ML+200 (Value)

Really not even getting into this game. NYG lost 4 straight beat a team missing its QB and is 6 point favs over divisional rival looking for revenge....Now the NYG OL has more issues and Strahan is still out...

Philly cannot stop the run but Tike kas dropped off since the hand inury IMO...Eli still hasnt shown enough consistency either...
 
Watch the panthers those Weinke stats are fools gold. He threw 34-61 3 Ints, 2 sacks. I think for 434 yards and only scored 13 pts. They ran for 45 yrds rushing. I think if Pitt can run the ball they win.
 
Joe Public said:
Right on cue.

I love it.

Go Birds.
Click to expand...

To bad my whole response to your earlier post was LOST in space!!

First with Minny why worry about the running game when you see NYJ run defense numbers ...when Taylor has ben upgraded , when taylor went for 130+ , the Taylor went for a 100 & Fiason 75 and last week Pinner 125...and richardson ahs been gone for all of this...

Second who has more injuries now Minny or NYJ...?? the most important Viking injury all season was to Marcus Robinson. I have preached his importance to the offense. The have one MAN who can stretch the field and his name is not Troy Williamson...Did you know w/o Marcus available they are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS where as they are 6-3 SU when he plays?? They lost by 5 in Buffalo, 10 in Chicago and 5 in Miami thanks largely to 2 defensive scores...

Third man I lost so much INFO...Do you think Minny is not equal to NYJ...?? I have this line at closer to -5.5...you seem to feel and thats fine that cause NYJ has beaten divisional opponents its soemhow equal to Minny.. Perfect example the Bears..with 3 games versus the Bears under there wings which they played fairly decent we can find that on a neutral field the BEars would lay -6 to Minny...however Chi laid -5.5 in NY...which tells me amongst other things that Minny is -2 to NY on a neutral field butthis isnt on a nuetral field......First NY game indoors all season...

the Bucs...sure they are bad but why..?? TB now has a healthy defense which allows only low 20's ...the Bears off aroad MNF win have listed 3 OL players on there injury list , Jones and Muhammad are questioanble for the offense, while the defense has 2 missing starting DT's , 2 missing safeties Brown and Johnson and a CN in Vasher out......

What motivation does Chi have here at 11-2 and banged up...?? How many TB games have they been one lay away from making some noise...they were winning @ half in Carolina......


had alotto say but that is the jist of it...BOl be back in the AM....
 
ontime23 said:
Watch the panthers those Weinke stats are fools gold. He threw 34-61 3 Ints, 2 sacks. I think for 434 yards and only scored 13 pts. They ran for 45 yrds rushing. I think if Pitt can run the ball they win.
Click to expand...

Actually I think the 13 points are fools gold rather then the yards....Pitt hasnt shown they can run the ball on the road....61 attempts for 434 yds still is 7+YPA...

Panther DEF in the 2nd H 6 possessions and six three and outs I believe...
 
Yeah, the only reason I'm not straight betting Chicago tomorrow is because they have no motivation. I just think TB's offense is bad enough that they may not score. I expect a really boring game. 17-3, 20-0, something like that.

On the Vikings, here's one thing we agree on, offense. I think there are going to be some points scored in that game. Because I think both teams are going to need, and be able to, throw the ball. The reason I like the Jets, mostly, is because they've fed all year long on bad teams and, though I wanted not to believe it after the way they started, Minnesota is another bad team. They play in a bad division, in a bad conference, and they are below .500. They're also not afraid to lose at home, as evidenced by their performance when both NE and GB came to town. Hell, Arizona could have beaten this team in Minnesota.

I don't love this game, I just think the value's the other way. I'm more hoping for a score-fest than anything else.
 
TB offense is bad but the Bears defense has way to many holes...look at how many teams are getting 100 + yards n the ground versus them...they best Minny by 10 and got 16 gift points...if Hester scores this week put him in the HOF now...TB 14 you probably cover but only 10 give syo a great chance IMo...

Now Joe...you need to rethink that Zona comment or at least backtrack...Minny was about to go up 38-13 with 10 to play...but fumbled going in and it went 99 yards the other way(31-20)..then Zona got another score with less then a minute for the MOOSE...also Zonas 1st score was a kickoff TD to start the game...inbewteen the Vikes did damage..Think Minny is 8-2 ATS past 10 as home chalk..

Minny is in a grey area and I agree as far as bad teams go...I think they are medicore..textbook 8-8 team...NY has feasted on bad teams but the real bad ones...Tenny with Collins , GB , @ Buffalo early , upset in NE plus the home wins vs Miami , Det , Houston and so on..Minny is better then all these teams even probably Buffalo..worst case equal to Buffalo...Again NE & GB beat them for the sole reason they had QB's who can wing it...Pennington aint got a wing (great english)...

I dont like the game either but value lies in winners.....naturally a dog who could win has value and NY is in a nice bounce back spot but they are so overrated...and I think the line is short...just throwing crap out there....

Gonna hit the sack...see ya in the morning we can verbal joust some more....not so crazy confident in this card but I say that everyday...need to smooth it out...GL
 
Nut, really love the philly play...i know the philly run d is horrid, however, these teams play twice and have been forever...this is a rivalry not to mention who ever wins this game is in the cat birds seat for the playoffs...this line should be -3 for the giants at the worst for homefield..the giants d is pretty sad against any teams who can run and pass (dallas, philly etc..even houston gave them all they could stand)..philly has a great chance to win. thanks for your effort !!!! :)
 
Vikings:smiley_acbe:

This is my XL play Nut.. Agree on all your points but basically the Vikings run it very well. Chester is back but even if he wasn't, Pinner and company are very capable. Jets are ranked 26th in run defense and the Vikes will feast today IMO.. Good Luck..

Also, what people don't understand about the Vikes is if they were to have received just average QB play, they would be a 10-6 team if you look at their schedule. As it is, if the Vikes win today, and I think they do, they have GB away and STL home left and it is likely they will end up 9-7 and in the playoffs.. Yes, the NFC is that bad.

Joe Public-- I also have a large vegas ticket (2 dimes to win 2.2 dimes) on the Vikes over 8 wins ,+110.. GL to both of us:cheers:

Great stuff Nut. I always go to your thread first.
 
Thanks Tee*dub...

I know I made a point of this last nite in what Marcus Robinson brings to the table. I dont want nearly as much as football as I used to but I have to wonder what I did watch of Minny if Troy WIlliamson had caught a couple of more of those long passes what this teammight have done..?? With a grinding running game and short pass attack , desperate where they(now I am talking like Yoda) to have someone stretch the field and open up the offense...I think the Jets in GB opened alot of eyes but I really dont know what GB did that afternoon...think I talked myslef into bumping up Minny...

biggoob ~ Thanks bro....I really didnt dive much into that game cause I think alot of what going is well documented..NYG injuries , Eli struggles , Phillys run defense...being a NYer you probably know where my heart lies but I walked away from the Carolina game wondering what it would have looked like if it was Weinke's 2nd start...BOL
 
1 PM:

Over 22 -120 Ravens (Large) Win +4.00 & Ravens -6.5 -110(Medium)) 1st Half Win +2.00
Titans +3.5 -109 (XLarge) Win +5.00 ML +170 (Small) Win +1.70
Bills ML -110 (Large ) Win +4.00
Vikings -3 -127(avg price)(Large) Loss -5.08
Bucs +14 -105 (Large) Win +4.00 & ML +740(Value) L -0.50
Panthers +3.5 -115(medium)Loss -2.30 & (Small)L -1.15 plays ML +147(value)L-0.25
Under 39 -105 Carolina(Small) L-1.05
Skins +10 -114 (XLarge) Win +5.00 ML +421 (Value)Win+2.50
Texans +13 -110 (Small)Loss -1.10
Lions +6 +102 (Small) ML +220(Value)Loss -1.00 & -0.12

(+15.75)
so happy I added those small 1 unit plays! Wasted 3 units..and silly bumps on Minny and Car cost me another 3 units...TB ML would have been nice...all in all cant complain...

4PM(+0.60)
Eagles +6 -105 (Large) Win +4.00 ML+200 (value)+1.00
Over 38.5 -110 Oakland (Large) Loss -4.40 so stupid I am !!!

Sunday Nite
Cheifs +9 -110 (Medium) ML +360(Value)

Last minute comments...
- Ravens and Pats seem to be heavy public plays...I said less then 13 Balt IMO was fair but I never wanted to lay that much so I went 1st H and team total. With the NE game if it wasnt such a bounce back game I might pound Houston...this NE team is banged up and has struggled all season as big chalk...Maroney to me appears doubtful and he is a huge weapon..do lean Under in NE but possibly a s 1st H under instead..??

-I think my Vikes/ NYJ feelings are well documented despite losing a solid writeup last nite...with Marcus Robinson they are 6-3 and w/o him they are 0-4...Jets canr run on Minny and that leaves it up to Pennington ....1st game in a dome this season and NY run defense is struggling while Taylor returns to aid suddenly surging Ciatrick Fiason and Artose Pinner..think the total is tight so no real lean but zeron interest in an over...

- Have Buffalo as large play just concerned that this Miami team is one of those you just cant cap...they do nothing good outside of play defense andfind repeated ways to win luckily or ugly...chose a phrase..the absence of an offense and playing on the road just makes ithard for me to accept they can overcome these factors...most games in Buff dont break 34...

- I think alot people missed how well Weinke played attimes...so poorly timed turnovers and lack of running game(what else is new) fizzled theer comeback attempts....isnt Game 2 the one where the Qb shines...Pitt just 1 road win this season and dont be impressed with handlings of TB and Cle..be serious...thinking Under 39....

-Fading the Sainst is rough they have played excellent football past 3. Just feel off a big win with some injuries the Skins are the wrong opppnent. They are sneaky and have a solid defense and good Running game...Jansen loss hurt no doubt but a veteran lineman steps in...injurie have to show up eventually in NO game and they should be able to attck deep like they did vs Dallas...Skins d playing better...

-The titans scare me cause it looks that easy...every week Vince does something to get them in the win column and this is revenge for the 1 recent bad efgort he had...jags struggle all season away and dominant at home...figure people overvalue them after beating Indy...a letdown after there marquee win..??

-TB is SF and no one seems to care Chi has nothing to play for after a MNF win and just about every Bear is OUT or questionable whether its OL or defense...TB finally got a healthy defense now...

-The Packer line is getting OUT OF HAND...might have to fade them on Principle...+6 +105 or +6.5 ...
 
Last edited:
GL nut I have been awful in the NFL the last few weeks so gotta try something else, I have shut off all my own opinions and going to take a swing at some of your plays.......lets get it done
 
Looks like we agree on some, differ on others.
Either way, Good Luck today Nut.
Fricking NFL, we all need as much LUCK as we can get.
 
So KMacc if I do poorly its all on your shoulders..?? Just kidding...Good Luck today hope you tail the right ones..BOL

CenTex...I would be seriously scared if someone agreed with me , after all I am nuts so what would that make them..?? In all seriousness the NFL is so tight thats why people lose...especially this late in the year ...I really couldnt find a total that they simpley missed on...Wish ya luck...gotta find out what we disagree on though...
 
Yeah I will take a little of the heat if you do poorly.......just call me the jinx if it goes down like that
 
Kmacc said:
Yeah I will take a little of the heat if you do poorly.......just call me the jinx if it goes down like that
Click to expand...

Nah..last I checked I made the decisions...just some light hearted needling...your commenst are extra incentive for me ...GL
 
You have any thoughts on the Cardinals today? They seem to do this every year. Do terrible then win a few games towards the end to make people think they may be poised to do well the next year. Broncos are in a freefall.
 
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