Week 14 Writeups and hopefully feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
9-4 last week for a decent unit cash. They haven't all been posted here but my year long record is a ho hum 97-81 (.545) At least you can make a little bit a of money with that percentage.

1. @Texas +7 v TCU: I kind of hemmed and hawed about this one all week, but now that I get a full TD, I'm pulling the trigger. Texas is 6-5, but if you look at their entire body of work, there is a lot to like abotu what they've done. They've had some clunkers early, and they had a very hard time competing on the road against K State, but in their home games and in the Oklahoma game on a neutral site, they have looked very good. Defensively, they are stout, and I don't think TCU will have the ability to run away and hide from them unless they get a bevy of turnovers. I say that because TCU has relied on turnovers a lot this year, and they've needed them to get themselves out of some tough spots on the road. They should have lost to a decent West Virginia team if not for 6(!!!!) turnovers handed to them by the Mountaineers. We should also remember that their road slate this year includes a narrow escape against a Kansas team that just gave up the all time rushing record the next week and a game in which they gave up almost 800 yards to Baylor. I'm a fan of Gary Patterson as a coach so I think TCU will have an improved effort over the Kansas game, but I still think Texas will give them everything they can handle in this one, especially if the wine and cheese Texas crowd decides to show up and give the Horns some support.


2. LSU -3 @Texas A&M: LSU's MO is to run the football down people's throats, but that hasn't worked all that well lately because they've spent pretty much the entire year playing brick wall run defenses like Alabama, Ole Miss, Florida, Misissippi St, even Wisconsin. Now they get to tee it up against this A&M run defense, ranked 111th in the country. Talk about class relief...pardon my harness racing vernacular here, but this is like going from the Meadowlands Pace to a $8,000 claimer glue factory special at Balmoral. A&M's passing game has come alive, but LSU is a bad matchup in that case too, as they are ranked 4th in passer rating against. A&M just game up 500+ to Maty Mauk and Mizzou on their home field, and their tackling is absolutely atrocious. Fournette and company should find more room than they've ever been accustomed to this week.
 
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3. @Iowa pk v Nebraska: This is really more of a play against a team leaking oil than it is on Iowa, but give the Hawkeyes credit, they are on a bit of an upswing, and the Iowa fans definitely want to keep a leg up in a regional matchup that's turning into a bit of a rivalry. Typically, it's dangerous to pay too much attention to week by week results, and this game is a good example. Nebraska coming off a tough home loss to Minnesota while iowa looked very good in a narrow loss to Wisconsin. Had that happened in week 6, I would be looking for the opposite reaction from these teams the following week. I've found however that by the end of the year, if a team is limping in to the finish line, especially one that is still a favorite or close to it and still has some expectations, the bad play becomes a trend. I think that's the case with Nebraska. Bo Pelini is now sitting on a seat made of molten lava rock, with the local press all calling for a change. They've also been exposed as a bad run defense after the past two weeks, and their offense isn't the same now that Ameer Abdullah is clearly not healthy and Tommy Armstrong forgot how to complete a pass. Now they face an Iowa defense who has been harrassing opposing QBs all year and will certainly not allow a one dimensional offense to run on them on senior day on their home field. The Iowa offense has looked a lot better in recent week s too, culminating in a 412 yard offensive performance against what was the #2 defense in ypp against last week.


4. Ball State +10 @ Bowling Green: These two teams are about as close to a statistical dead heat as you can get. In schedule adjusted offensive efficiency, Ball State is 100th and BG is 91st. Defeisvely, it's Ball state at 91st and BG at 103rd. Ball State had a bad start this year, but has settled in a bit on both sides of the ball, while BG has been pretty average all year. BG hasn't blown anyone out at home in conference, beating Buffalo by 1, a terrible Kent team by only 10 and losing somewhat non-competitively to Western Michigan. On the road, Ball State has been mostly pretty good, having beaten a good CMU team, lost by only 11 at Toledo when Toledo was at full strength and by only 4 at Iowa in the beginning of the year. I don't suggest that Ball State is the better team here, but i do think there's value in getting 10 points in a game with 2 very similar teams on paper with a team that's played pretty well on the road.
 
5. @Missouri +3.5 v Arkansas: I just got 3.5 on BOL for only (-120), so I'd suggest buying it. I get why Arkansas is favored here and why the vast majority of the public is enamored with them after the past two weeks. Hey, I was all over them last week...it might have been my favorite play of the year. Having said all that, the reason for Arkansas' renaissance this year has been how lights out their defense has played at home. Back to back shutouts and the ultra impressive effort against Alabama were among the best defensive efforts anyone has had all year, but they were all at home. On the road, it's been a bit of a different story both for their defense and for their psyche because they still haven't shown that they can win a tough road game. Now, moving on to Missouri, I have to admit that the difference between these two schedules has been staggering. Even though they are in the SEC, Missouri hasn't played even close to the same schedule Arkansas has, and frankly, they've been dogshit at home and heroes on the road. At the end of the day though, they have found a way to be 9-2, and the biggest reason for that has been their defense. That defense is legit, and the Arkansas offense is not going to have a lot of success against them. Even in this great run of improvement the Hogs have had, their offense hasn't done much, and the Missouri defense will definitely have the edge on them. I also think the Tigers have at least one strong home effort in them this year, and their offense looked much better the last 2 weeks. Mizzou is playing for the SEC East title this week at home as an underdog against a team who's having their knobs slobbed uncontrollably by the national media. I think the Hogs will get Mizzou's best effort. If they come out of there with a FG+ victory, hats off to them.


6. Arizona State +3 @ Arizona: These two teams are very evenly matched, like a lot of games recently. Both offenses have been explosive, but Arizona State's defense has been a little better than Arizona's, and the Cats have not been dominant at home. Recently they were outgained by Washington in Tucson, and they escaped by the skin of their teeth earlier this year against Cal. They've been a much better road team. ASU has also gone on the road and won some impressive games, and they are at full strength with Jaelen Strong probable to go. The biggest reason for this play for me though is that Arizona QB Anu Solomon is questionable with an ankle injury and will be a game time decision. Even if he goes, he won't be at full speed and he is a huge part of their offense.
 
No problem DD.

7. Georgia Tech +12 @ Georgia: On paper, Georgia Tech's defense looks bad, 101st in ypp, and 101st in yrds per carry on defense, but it hasn't seemed to matter almost the entire year because they are handling people easily even when the struggle to stop people. They've been so good on offense that it doesn't seem to matter what happens to them on defense, and they've been a lot better over the past 2-3 weeks. They are ranked #1 in schedule adjusted offensive efficiency in the entire country, and this is one of the first GT squads that has some tricks up it's sleeve even if their run game is ineffective. Although Georgia has been mostly solid defensively, they've been gashed by the likes of Florida and Kentucky of all people, so the top ranked offense arouns should be able to move the ball. Also, Georgia is going to know it's fate as it relates to the SEC East before they tee it up, so they'll either be already in the SEC title game or eliminated, playing only for pride. Regardless, GT has the motivational edge of always being the little brother underdog...it might be a disadvantage for Georgia because they'll have to be at their best to cover against this GT squad.


8. @Northwestern -8 v Illinois: The winner of this game gets to go to a bowl while the loser ends up 5-6 and goes home, so everything is riding on this one. In the past, when the Illini have had a lot riding on a late season trip to Evanston, things have not gone well, and the Tim Beckman/Pat Fitzgerald matchup figures to go about as well as the rest of the Tim Beckman era has gone at Illinois: Poorly. Recently, the Cats have looked like a different team from the vast majority of their year, finding a passing game and running effectively with true frosh Justin Jackson. Defensively, they've been pretty solid all year, and the Illini have a much tougher time getting things going on the road. There is no earthly chance that Beckman musters awin in this spot, and I suggest that there's little chance for the cover either. Illinois will get Northwestern's best shot, and they like to rub it in on the Illini when the chance presents itself.
 
9. @Louisville -13.5 v Kentucky: I realize that this is a rivalry game, and sometimes that means the game might be closer than you think, but in this case, I think it means the team that is finding it's stride and the much better team will be motivated to blow out the weaker team that is staggering to the finish line. During the season, Kentucky had a stretch where they were playing good defense while their offense appeared to be getting things going under young QB Patrick Towles. Those days are long gone. Defensively, they are coming off a 2 game stretch in which they gave up a touchdown on EVERY OFFENSIVE POSSESSION against Georgia, and then followed that up by allowing 50 points and 511 yards to the 107th ranked YPP offense in the country (Tennessee) last week. As I've mentioned ad nauseum, Louisville is looking better and better each week as they are ingratiated into the way Petrino does things, and their defense has been one of the elite defenses in the country all year. I think this one has a chance to be a repeat of Kentucky's game with UT last week.


10. @Florida State -7 v Florida: I bought it from 7.5 for (-120) which isn't too bad, so I'd recommend it. I haven't been on Florida State all year this year, but I think there's a lot of value in the Seminoles here. Everyone and their brother is saying that Florida has a great chance at upsetting the Seminoles outright let alone covering, and I'm sure that FSU's players have gotten tired of hearing about how they always allow inferior squads to hang with them. I really don't see how Florida with a banged up Treon Harris is going to score on Florida State. It's silly to expect a repeat of the Georgia game for Florida as that has shown itself to be a complete fluke....Florida hasn't run like that against anyone else, and Georgia hasn't given up rushing yards like that against anyone else, so we can almost throw that out. FSU has been plenty competent against the run, other than last week against BC, but BC has run the ball effectively on everyone. I also still believe that Florida can be exposed with downfield passing, and Winston is definitely capable of that. This might also be the week when Dalvin Cook is fully unleashed, and FSU stops messing around with Karlos Williams or whoever else back there. FSU has put up big points on better good defenses before, (Louisville, Miami, UVA, etc)so I expect them to do it on their home field this week as well. Florida has no passing game at all, I just don't see enough points coming from them to cover only a TD.
 
11. Mississippi St -2.5 v Mississippi: People might expect a "bounceback" effort from Ole Miss this week after their debacle against Arkansas, but I don't. What we saw last week from Ole Miss is simply what they are right now. They are banged up, especially on offense, and they are not even close to what they were even 4 weeks ago. The loss of Laquan Treadwell has killed them, and they've never been able to run. Now Bo Wallace is even banged up. He's going to try to gut it out this week, but if you are putting everything on Bo Wallace's shoulders, he just isn't the kind of guy that can carry an offense. Mississippi St's defense has been plenty capable this year...overall they are comparable to LSU and certainly Arkansas, so I think Ole Miss will struggle to score to say the least. Also, Ole Miss's defense is missing several key players and Dak Prescott has proven to be on his game more often than not and they have a running game they can lean on. Motivation is obviously solidly in MSU's corner as they are playing for absolutely everything this week. I think the Bulldogs get it done on the road. If this game was 6 weeks ago, I wouldn't be nearly as confident.


12. @Wisconsin -14 v Minnesota: I hate to go with another favorite, especially against a team that has made me a lot of money this year, but this looks like a bad matchup for the Gophers. First of all, I don't know how they will score without David Cobb, and at best he will be hobbled and less than 100% if he even plays at all. Wisconsin's defense has been a killer in Madison, combining with the running game to chew up mediocre or worse teams. Minnesota's defense has gotten by ok this year, but they are ranked 81st against the run, which actually matches up much worse with the Badger attack much worse than teams like Maryland and Nebraska did. It's been a great run for Minnesota, but they aren't going to win the West, and I think that will be evident early in this one.
 
13. BYU +4.5 @ Cal: I realize that Taysom Hill is out for the year, and that it seemed like BYU's ofensive production went out for the year with him, but their QB Stewart has settled in pretty well, and BYU's defense has been strong for most of the year. We also have to remember that they are facing one of the worst defenses in the country according to several metrics (124th against the pass, 112th in overall ypp) so BYU should be able to move the ball. Cal has not done much at all to justify laying points here, as they have beaten none of their conference home opponents by more than 3 points, and have lost convincingly to Washington and Stanford, two teams that profile similarly to BYU. The Cougs are 7-4 and still working on a nice season. Cal is certainly not comfortable with this role.


14. @Alabama -8.5 v Auburn: Over the past 5 games, Auburn has not been able to stop any of it's opponents from racking up at least 31 points, and I don't see much of a change of fortune against an Alabama offense that has been very good at home and has pretty much all of it's weapons healthy for the first time in awhile. On the other side of the ball,. Auburn just hasn't looked as good as they did earlier in the year, and this is yet another stalwart defense for them to have to line up against. Bama is still smarting over that colossal loss in the Iron Bowl last year, and I'm sure the Tide will have a chip on their shoulder in this one. I see about a 34-17 type game here.


15. Utah State +9 @ Boise State: Boise has had a good year, but I think Utah state is going to give them all they can handle in this game. Utah State is definitely not intimidated by anyone, and they have a legitimately strong defense, statistically one of the best in the country. They also have a pretty sizable edge in the run game, as I think Utah State will run on them and I think Jay Ajayi will have some difficulty running on the Aggies. It's a really evenly matched game with USU having the edge in several spots, so I'll take the 9.
 
You have two games in here that I think are contingent upon what happens today (Boise and UGA). Boise will have the luxury of seeing what Marshall does, and UGA will know if they are going to win the SECe after the ARK/Mizzou game. Will you be double dipping on these if you get better lines?

If Marshall wins, Boise knows they will have to win and win decisvely (style points). Could drive the price up to double digits.

If Mizzou loses, UGA will have to play a little closer to the vest. They will not be able to take injuries. I know it is a rivalry game, but winning the conference will be of utmost importance. Could see the line falling a bit more in that case. If Mizzou wins, they can let loose and play balls out.

I know you already have your picks in, but any chance of going back for more if either goes your way?
 
booksbestfriend said:
You have two games in here that I think are contingent upon what happens today (Boise and UGA). Boise will have the luxury of seeing what Marshall does, and UGA will know if they are going to win the SECe after the ARK/Mizzou game. Will you be double dipping on these if you get better lines?

If Marshall wins, Boise knows they will have to win and win decisvely (style points). Could drive the price up to double digits.

If Mizzou loses, UGA will have to play a little closer to the vest. They will not be able to take injuries. I know it is a rivalry game, but winning the conference will be of utmost importance. Could see the line falling a bit more in that case. If Mizzou wins, they can let loose and play balls out.

I know you already have your picks in, but any chance of going back for more if either goes your way?
Click to expand...

You know...those are good questions. In Boise's case, I don't know that they are equipped to just have their way with Utah state. If that line goes up significantly, I'd be interested in probably laying more on the Aggies. I think their defense is good enough, and Boise's run defense has enough issues that the game should never get away from them.

As for Georgia, I kind of looked at it as a tough motivation regardless of what happens. It's tough to say if they have aspirations above and beyond the SEC title game. If winning the SEC is the end all be all for them, then this game doesn't matter much. I don't know if I see that line moving much based on what happens with Mizzou. I could be wrong though. You're right that the game will hold more importance for them if it's all they have left to play for, save whatever bowl game they go to.
 
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