Week 14 What Are We Learning

guaranteeed said:
Double the teams with a positive differential in double digits is pretty different
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I initially missed the "double digit" portion of this post, but what are we saying really? The NFC has 3 teams with over +100 differential, the AFC has one. So it would seem the NFC is much more top heavy than the AFC if we're strictly going by point differential. The AFC East has every team with a postiive point differential, and then only 3 other teams in the conference who can say that.

At the end of the day, there are 7 AFC teams with a positive point differential, and 5 NFC teams. 3 of the NFC teams are above +100, while only the Bills are above 100 in the AFC. If Miami loses by 10 or more, we have 6 in the AFC and 5 in the NFC.
 
jedi ninja said:
I initially missed the "double digit" portion of this post, but what are we saying really? The NFC has 3 teams with over +100 differential, the AFC has one. So it would seem the NFC is much more top heavy than the AFC if we're strictly going by point differential. The AFC East has every team with a postiive point differential, and then only 3 other teams in the conference who can say that.

At the end of the day, there are 7 AFC teams with a positive point differential, and 5 NFC teams. 3 of the NFC teams are above +100, while only the Bills are above 100 in the AFC. If Miami loses by 10 or more, we have 6 in the AFC and 5 in the NFC.
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NFC is extremely top heavy, AFC more balanced
 
guaranteeed said:
NFC is extremely top heavy, AFC more balanced
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Sure. Looking at it a different way, there are 3 dominant teams in the NFC and only one in the AFC. So the AFC would be trash and the NFC would be the conference more likely to win the SB. But this is just using point differential, which doesn't necessarily seem to be the best barometer to use in the first place.
 
The Bears released their entire OL last week & they were immediately claimed by the Chargers in time for tonight's game.
 
Coaches are being pussies and kicking fg's inside the 20 on 4th and short near end of games down by 10+ because their stupid analytics department think they can get an onsides kick recovery (about a 3% chance, no data though). Just something to keep an eye on.
 
jedi ninja said:
Sure. Looking at it a different way, there are 3 dominant teams in the NFC and only one in the AFC. So the AFC would be trash and the NFC would be the conference more likely to win the SB. But this is just using point differential, which doesn't necessarily seem to be the best barometer to use in the first place.
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But are those teams really dominant in the NFC? Lot of parity this year in both conferences. Every team has major flaws.
 
HUNT said:
Coaches are being pussies and kicking fg's inside the 20 on 4th and short near end of games down by 10+ because their stupid analytics department think they can get an onsides kick recovery (about a 3% chance, no data though). Just something to keep an eye on.
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Then again,, even if they went for it & made it in that scenario, they'd still need to recover an onside kick to have a shot at the win.
 
What they really need to do is give coaches the option of recovering an onside kick or converting a 4th & 15 scenario as an option. Instead of something like a 10% chance of recovery, I'd imagine the success rate would probably approach 20-25%. Of course, the teams with the more skilled offensive players (Jefferson, Chase, Hill, ect.) would have a distinct advantage.
 
dg84 said:
Then again,, even if they went for it & made it in that scenario, they'd still need to recover an onside kick to have a shot at the win.
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It's a lot of games this year dg, I see it weekly. I have to cap analytics and who is analytic heavy...NFL is already hard but analytics makes it extremely hard.
 
dg84 said:
What they really need to do is give coaches the option of recovering an onside kick or converting a 4th & 15 scenario as an option. Instead of something like a 10% chance of recovery, I'd imagine the success rate would probably approach 20-25%. Of course, the teams with the more skilled offensive players (Jefferson, Chase, Hill, ect.) would have a distinct advantage.
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They need to go for the TD like they did the last 50 years.
 
What I can't stand is the fact that many coaches, and Staley is a prime example, continuously go for it on 4th & short without considering opponent, game situation, or flow & momentum of the game. I see nothing wrong with settling for 3 points at times, especially when you're expanding a lead, trying to pull within one score, or early in games, among other situations. I mean, I get it if you're the Houston Texans, why not go for it 90% of the time, but teams vying for playoff spots need to be more selective. Analytics can be a great tool if used correctly, but some use it as a bible.
 
HUNT said:
Coaches are being pussies and kicking fg's inside the 20 on 4th and short near end of games down by 10+ because their stupid analytics department think they can get an onsides kick recovery (about a 3% chance, no data though). Just something to keep an eye on.
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You need two scores to win. You need an onside kick to accomplish that, regardless of which score comes first. I have no idea how someone can frame kicking the FG first as “being a pussy.” Make it make sense, because where I’m coming from it’s basic and rudimentary math.
 
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HUNT said:
They need to go for the TD like they did the last 50 years.
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This makes little to no sense. Again, you need 2 scores and an onside kick. Why in the world would it matter which one came first? If you go for the TD and don’t get it, you’re done. At least kicking the FG first gives you a shot.

The only reason someone would argue against this is if they had a spread bet on the team winning where the FG loses the cover. There is no other situation, if you’re trying to win a game, where arguing against the FG makes sense.
 
HUNT said:
But are those teams really dominant in the NFC? Lot of parity this year in both conferences. Every team has major flaws.
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I have no idea (I’m not the one who brought up point differential), but I do know that it doesn’t make sense to say the AFC is superior because they have more teams with a positive point differential in double digits, especially when one conference only has 2 more teams with a positive point differential to begin with.
 
jedi ninja said:
This makes little to no sense. Again, you need 2 scores and an onside kick. Why in the world would it matter which one came first? If you go for the TD and don’t get it, you’re done. At least kicking the FG first gives you a shot.

The only reason someone would argue against this is if they had a spread bet on the team winning where the FG loses the cover. There is no other situation, if you’re trying to win a game, where arguing against the FG makes sense.
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It depends on the situation, each situation is different. It just drives me crazy when a team goes for it all game long then cops out inside the 2 no matter the score.
 
He might not be even better than an average player at best, but Mike Fucking White is the toughest QB in the NFL. He took 3 unreal shots in the last 2 games (1 at Minny and 2 yesterday at Buffalo) that would've knocked out half the QBs in this league. MF'er came back twice and finished the game with a broken rib still on the field.

Win or lose, I'm fired up to root for this kid as a Jets fan.
 
Gandolf said:
Really? I only see six teams with a realistic shot at this point. Philly, Niners, Dallas, Buffalo, KC and Cincy. I went into the season with the Vikings and Chargers also in the mix but they don't pass the smell test anymore.
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Yep that is it. Vikings have 0 chance. You got the 6 and Dallas and Cinci are in the fringe of that 6.
 
scarf31 said:
He might not be even better than an average player at best, but Mike Fucking White is the toughest QB in the NFL. He took 3 unreal shots in the last 2 games (1 at Minny and 2 yesterday at Buffalo) that would've knocked out half the QBs in this league. MF'er came back twice and finished the game with a broken rib still on the field.

Win or lose, I'm fired up to root for this kid as a Jets fan.
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You’ll be rooting for Jimmy G next season.
 
Inspekdah said:
You’ll be rooting for Jimmy G next season.
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Zero chance of that. Both him and Carr would command much more than White will in the QB market. And I don't think Carr is that great, or Jimmy G can stay healthy. I'll take my chances with White and a plethora of offensive weapons over those 2 options.
 
skanless13 said:
I disagree. In NFC there are what maybe 4 teams you could make a pretty good argument for going far. In the AFC there are like 8 or more
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Regarding point differential. The screenshot shows NFC being top heavy, but AFC looks about the same.
 
scarf31 said:
Zero chance of that. Both him and Carr would command much more than White will in the QB market. And I don't think Carr is that great, or Jimmy G can stay healthy. I'll take my chances with White and a plethora of offensive weapons over those 2 options.
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Aaron Rodgers will be the Jets QB in 2023 and you can get +550 on betonline.
 
scarf31 said:
Zero chance of that. Both him and Carr would command much more than White will in the QB market. And I don't think Carr is that great, or Jimmy G can stay healthy. I'll take my chances with White and a plethora of offensive weapons over those 2 options.
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Let some other sucker pay White 25 million a year the Jets should not be that stupid. The move is to trade a first round pick for Rodgers and this team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2023.
 
I like McDaniel in Miami but it sure appears teams have started figuring out how to take away those cute plays they were killing teams with early on, then all that left Is Tua having to make plays/throws and we see why Flores didn’t want him!! And he really pissed me off with his game plan! Why was Tua throwing so much when it a proven fact you can run all over chargers? Jeff Wilson jr hardly even got a chance, I understood this vs niners the previous week but this was incredibly stupid last night!! I think bills are gonna wax them.
 
Jets mighg actually have a qb they can build around and win with, it just ain’t that Pussy 1st round pick I said was a horrible pick from day 1. Lucky for them mike white looks like the real deal to me, he got beat to shit yesterday and still kept them in the game, I’d think he earning the right to go into next year as the starter.,jets can win with him I think.
 
brewers888 said:
Let some other sucker pay White 25 million a year the Jets should not be that stupid. The move is to trade a first round pick for Rodgers and this team is a legitimate Super Bowl contender in 2023.
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I’d rather keep white. There no chance rodgers takes them to a SB out the afc, he can’t do it in the bad nfc!! He making 50 mil a year so there goes your roster. You finally agree w me bout that scrub zack Wilson? They can win with white. He was getting destroyed yesterday and still battled, Rodgers woulda quit half way thru that game, you kidding me, Rodgers a bailer not a baller.
 
I’ll bet anything right now rodgers doesn’t sniff another SB playing for any team. Maybe niners but he prob lose the locker room.
 
scarf31 said:
Zero chance of that. Both him and Carr would command much more than White will in the QB market. And I don't think Carr is that great, or Jimmy G can stay healthy. I'll take my chances with White and a plethora of offensive weapons over those 2 options.
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Damn straight. I think ya’ll got something in white. I’d roll with him over Jimmy g hurt ass or Carr cautious ass.
 
White big strong kid who can make the throws: he showed me something yesterday, he took way more a beating to his ribs than discount double bitch took against eagles when he checked out crying bout fear of a punctured lung! Dudes ribs weren’t even cracked he played the next week!! Lol
 
RetroVK said:
Learned I am terrible at fantasy football. Led the league in scoring and finished last
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This exact scenario is the reason in the fantasy league I’m in (23rd year this year) we added a wrinkle…on top of the head to head each week, there is an extra point given to the top half of the league each week if you finish in the top half of scoring that week. We have 10 teams, so the top 5 scores for the week get an extra point.

So you can get 2 points if you win your game and finish in the top half that week, but can get 1 point if you lose your game and finish in the top half each week. It rewards the better teams season long as opposed to just simply head to head being at the mercy of the schedule.
 
Gandolf said:
Really? I only see six teams with a realistic shot at this point. Philly, Niners, Dallas, Buffalo, KC and Cincy. I went into the season with the Vikings and Chargers also in the mix but they don't pass the smell test anymore.
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Bengals went from one of the worst to first. I think another team can do it. Maybe the lions right?
 
HUNT said:
One of the biggest games this weekend is the Jets vs. Lions. Oh my!
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Who woulda thought, lol. Super interesting game. Lions d has def been playing better, think they will need it cause the offense be facing a much tougher test and away from the dome. Goff hasn’t been as good on road and now this week he facing a d that not gonna sit back in zone and let him pick it apart, his numbers vs zone drastically better than man. Should be a good one, rather they didn’t play each other as I want them both to make playoffs.
 
HUNT said:
Jared Goff is my qb. White Mike is scarfs qb.
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Goff against zone and at home been fantastic, this week gonna be a real test, luckily lions d has played better but nothing like the jets d, white has the easier path to success this week id say. Having chark back healthy and Williams starting to get involved should help.
 
Inspekdah said:
Yep that is it. Vikings have 0 chance. You got the 6 and Dallas and Cinci are in the fringe of that 6.
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I don’t think Cincy is fringe at all. I think they scare the crap out of the other contenders. I expect they be back in the afc champ game at least. They a better team than last year and now have all that playoff road experience, Perine has evolved to giving them a great 1-2 punch out backfield, I don’t think bills and def kc want to see them.
 
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