Week 14 gibberish and other nonsense

[Br@ssknux]

I changed the title of this thing this week since it's been such an utter disaster. 5-6 last week moves the season total to 25-33, which is by far my worst run in a decade or longer. I keep thinking it will turn around, but it could be that this is just one of those years. There's been some bad beats and some tough luck, but also a lot of unsound thinking. I don't want to belabor the point, so we'll just move on to this week. I usually go in chronological order, but I want to get a couple of these on paper and I didn't check to see when they kick off.

1. @Kansas State +7 v Texas: I got this earlier in the week at a much better number (+9.5), but I dilly dallied so I'll write it up at the current number, because truth be told, although I believe strongly in the negative karma of settling for a terrible line, I would have probably played it if 7 was the high point of the line. K State was rolling pretty well (for them) on offense under Skyler Thompson, but once Will Howard took over, their offensive competencies feel off a cliff. Howard’s feckless performance at QB led to a stretch of something like 18 of 20 scoreless possessions, and during the 3 game stretch against West Virginia, Okie State and Iowa State, they looked like Matt Nagy was calling their plays. Finally Howard kind of righted the ship last week which despite lining up against a good defense in Baylor, you assumed Kleimann and co would eventually figure things out on the offensive end at least somewhat. Now Texas comes into town without much to play for and on the heels of several important players opting out. I actually like Texas's defense this year...they actually tackle people, but covering sizable spreads is not in their DNA. K State has also been very good under Kleimann(like Snyder before him) as a dog, and the Cats are 8-2 as a home dog the last 3 years. One team covers as a dog, the other is a mess in the favorite's role. If they're in their requisite roles, I'm a buyer at +7 or more.

 

[B.A.R.]

They were much better last week.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Indiana +14.5 @Wisconsin: This line was 15 or even higher at some points earlier this week, but it's now settled at 14.5. The line is high because IU starting QB tore his ACL and s out for the year. Although Penix gets high marks for his leadership, Indiana has overcome some truly dreadful stretches of play from Penix. He definitely showed his mettle against Ohio State when the Hoosiers made a nice comeback, but the rest of his body of work showed some holes. I don't really think the move to backup Jack Tuttle is going to hurt the Hoosiers all that much if at all. IU pulled away from Maryland last week once Tuttle came in the game and he was a very highly touted QB coming out of High School. He had high major offers before he ended up at Utah, only to transfer to IU last year for his sit out year. Although Wisconsin is extremely good on defense, IU has the playmakers in Fryfogle and Philyor to make a difference. The jury still kind of remains out on Graham Mertz, and Indiana harrassed Justin Fields to the worst game of his OSU career, picking him off 3 times. Last I checked IU led the nation in INTs with 15 so they'll be pressuring Mertz both with the secondary's ability to ballhawk as well as the ability Indiana has to present pressure from their DL. In my opinion, it's not clear that Wisconsin is the better team...you could make a case that Indiana is capable of winning going away if the Badgers have an effort similar to their performance against Northwestern. Overall, it just appears to me that this is the Hoosiers year, so I'll definitely take the points in a game in which it appears the line is inflated based on the exaggerated inferiority of the backup QB.

 

[s--k]

Good point on Penix. When he was good, he was real good, but definitely had some subpar moments that are easy to forget with the 2pt play vs Penn St and the near 500y passing vs Ohio State front and center in our memories. Feel terrible for him and hate to slight him when injured, but it is possible that IU could be ok at QB without him. We just haven't seen it yet and UW D is a tough opponent to roll a green QB out there vs. I will have Indy too for what it is worth.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. @Rutgers +11.5 v Penn State: With the way Rutgers has competed this year under Greg Schiano, this is an auto-play for me. I'm completely aware that this is probably a very square play and that Rutgers appears to be much more effective as a road dog, but 11.5 is too much for this version of Penn State, despite some of their misleading final scores this year. PSU is solid on defense, but they are just not good enough on offense to cover a number this high against a highly competitive Rutgers bunch. If you look at Rutgers per play offensive numbers, you might dispute that, and you'd be on the right track, but somehow they are finding ways to score. They scored 38 in the opener against a good Michigan State defense, 27 at Ohio State and 37 last week at Purdue. They're finding ways to score, and Penn State is having those kind of things happen against them as well. I really see no reason as to why the established norms for these two teams will reverse, and I trust Schiano to ensure focused performances out the the Scarlet Knights each week, especially against a Penn State program that has pounded the shit out of them nonstop since they entered the Big Ten. QB Noah Vedral is expected back, which is required for a play here because I suspect that the Art Sitkowski/Johnny Langan job-share would only be effective against bad defenses, which Penn State is not. I just don't see a lot of established evidence that would point to a Penn State blowout here. On paper, you might be able to see a scenario, but based off what these two teams have shown us in practice, it isn't likely.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Toledo -9.5 @Northern Illinois: I spent about a half hour scouring the WMU/NIU box score to figure out how in the hell Northern was able to hang with WMU, and although there's some anomalies in there(they went 4-4 on 4th downs and got a couple other 4th down conversions on penalties), you have to tip your cap to them and acknowledge they played well against a pretty good WMU team. So what's different this week? First of all, the Huskies were in their comfort zone as a significant road underdog last week(8-3 in that role recently), and now they're back home, where they've struggled the last couple years(5-7). The major accomplishment last week for the Huskies was keeping the WMU offense off the field and they managed to do it by running 80 plays to WMU's 49. It didn't result in a win for the Huskies because their usual per play issues showed up, and the Broncos were able to manage 17 yards per completion against Northern's terrible pass defense. Also, NIU's competence converting 3rd/4th downs was not typical as they still rank 118th in 3rd down conversions, and this week they'll face Toledo's defense which is ranked 5th in 3rd downs against. I suspect we'll see a major regression back to normal for the Huskies in that area, and by the way, Toledo is ranked 16th in the country in yards per pass attempt while NIU sits at 119th in yards per pass attempt against. This shapes up to be a major matchup problem for the Huskies coming off a game in which they had a lot of good fortune. It's probably not going to go as well this week.

 

[RetroVK]

Good luck Br@ss!

Thanks for the info

 

[Br@ssknux]

Good luck Br@ss!

Thanks for the info

Thanks VK. The first time I saw the "Only in my Dreams" video by our girl Debbie, I was in love.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Holy shit, what happened to my BC +6 number??? So much for that one.

 

[2daBank]

Holy shit, what happened to my BC +6 number??? So much for that one.

lol I know right. When I said I thought they were better team and would win outright I didn’t mean I wanted line to come way down!! I still like them +4 assuming the weather is decent, don’t think I wanna play them if it goes off in heavy rain.

 

[Br@ssknux]

lol I know right. When I said I thought they were better team and would win outright I didn’t mean I wanted line to come way down!! I still like them +4 assuming the weather is decent, don’t think I wanna play them if it goes off in heavy rain.

I actually still like them too assuming Jurkovec is OK , but it's hard in good conscience to lose 2.5 points in value.

 

[2daBank]

I actually still like them too assuming Jurkovec is OK , but it's hard in good conscience to lose 2.5 points in value.

i hear ya. I ended up passing on af last night cause damn thing went from -10 to -13.5, of course didn’t matter so if I ignore it here it inevitably will matter!

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Ball State -1 @ Central Michigan: I'm not wild about Ball State turning into the favorite in this game, but this looks like a problem game for Central Michigan. First off, QB Daniel Richardson is out, and his backup is averaging 3.9 yards per attempt in his limited action. CMU likes to run, but Ball State's weakness on D is pass defense, which would appear to be something CMU will have a hard time taking advantage of. The Cardinals are coming off a game in which they held Toledo, who over the years has always had a great rush offense, to only 42 yards on 28 carries, and they rank 33rd in the country in rush D on the year. On the other side of the ball, Cardinal QB is averaging 8.6 yards per attempt, while CMU has been torched to the tune of the 126th ranked pass defense. The Chips were also very fortunate last week to pull off a late win and cover against EMU in a game they scored 21 points in the last 4 minutes to pull it out. Things like that tend to even out the next week, and I think this is a good matchup for Ball State.

 

[Joco]

Lol play calling of Nagy. Good stuff. even if you’re losing, your write ups are consistently good reads

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Georgia Tech +7 @NC State: I've always been a fan of GT coach Geoff Collins, and frankly, I was surprised that we hadn't seen more progress than we did this year. Of course, 2 of their last 3 games before their demolition of Duke last week were against Clemson and Notre Dame, so I suppose I shouldn't be so hard on the Jackets. After the ND game, GT had a bye week followed by 2 cancellations, so they had been off for awhile with most of that time used for practicing as they had only a mild hiccup themselves as it related to COVID issues. They came out and blasted Duke last week and now travel to Raleigh to face an NC State team that sits at 7-3 despite being outgained by their opponents on the season. On paper, I don't see much of a difference between these two teams, and I think NC State is due for a clunker performance. I definitely don't see them as an 8-3 team, so a loss out of them here would not be out of character. I just saw a chance to grab 7 at (-115) so I jumped at it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. @Washington -11(-115) v Stanford: I never like laying double digits, and it looks like I'm going to be on some favorites this week, but this one looks like a bit of a mismatch to me. When I watch Stanford, I just don't see any difference makers like you used to see with their running backs and the big receivers like Arciaga-Whiteside, etc. They have just looked like they're holding on, and after a decent start offensively, their numbers are regressing again. More alarming is their defense. 111th in yards per play, 118th against the run, 126th(!!) on 3rd down. Any decent offense is going to move the ball on them, and Washington has been pretty good running the ball and converting 3rd downs. Defensively, the Huskies rank 8th against the pass and 13th on 3rd down. They sleepwalked through the first half against Utah last week only to roar back and dominate the second half en route to a comeback win. I'm a little concerned that the outgained Oregon State badly but let it end a one score game, but the matchup is so tilted in their favor this time that I think they'll take the momentum of the second half against Utah and take care of business on the Cardinal here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. BYU -10.5 @Coastal Carolina: I hate to do this but Coastal just isn't going to be ready for this kind of competition in my opinion. Although there's going to be some question as to the kind of state of mind BYU will be in, their culture demands that they play hard, and if Coastal gets their best effort, there's nothing that they've played this year that even compares to what BYU will serve up to them. Coastal's defense has been good, but they haven't seen anything like Zack Wilson and co, or the BYU defense. If Coastal was traveling out to Provo I could see them sneaking up on BYU and giving them a game, but in this environment, where BYU is traveling and undoubtedly fully respecting Coastal, I just don't see a scenario where the Chants can go toe to toe with a team that scored at will on Boise for example. If Coastal sacks up and trades blows with BYU and their 25 year old grown men, I'll tip my cap, but I don't see it happening.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. @Oklahoma -21(-120) v Baylor: I just don't see Baylor having the ability to keep pace in this game. The Bears have a competent defense statistically, but I can't see a scenario where they will hold OU's offense down to a level that their putrid offense will be able to get within this number. Oklahoma had 27 points and almost 300 yards at the half their last time out against an Oklahoma State defense that's significantly better than this one, and Baylor managed to give up 30+ to Will Howard and K state last week. The real problem for Baylor however, is on the other side of the ball. 118th in yards per play and a complete inability to run it will render Charlie Brewer helpless against a pass rush ranked 14th in sack rate, and he isn't much of a passer even if he has time. This OU team actually has been very good on the defensive side of the ball, 23rd against the run and 11th on 3rd down. Baylor will have to play a great game defensively to cover this, unless some sort of offensive magic shows up for them.

 

[Timh]

Brass - BOL this week, I really like Rutgers, Washington and BYU.

 

[bones]

Brass - as always this is much appreciated. And, as almost always we agree on almost all

* Hate to say this, but the OU bet is almost a "lock"

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Alabama -29.5 @LSU: I hate to be the square guy, but Alabama has been covering every week, and I can't see how LSU can even hope to compete in this game. Even worse, Bama is likely to show no quarter here as they probably still remember last year and how LSU (justifiably) rubbed their noses in it. LSU played better last week on defense, but they haven't been able to stop anyone all year, and you can't get any worse than the Bama offense/LSU defense matchups from a statistical perspective. Bama offense yards per play 2 vs LSU 115. Bama pass offense ranked 2nd in yards per attempt vs LSU at 121st. Also, don't forget that Bama's defense has played extremely well after a terrible start, to the point where they are actually 23rd in yards per play against despite giving up something like 27 yards per play (it seemed) in that Ole Miss game back in the early part of the season. Offensively, LSU is helpless. WR Terrence Marshall just opted out in order to become the latest LSU superstar NFL receiver, and he was pretty much the entire offense for LSU, catching 10 balls for 135 yards and their only TD in a game they only managed 245 yards in total. Looks like a wipeout to me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Adding a late one here. Not sure if anyone will notice it.

11. @Iowa State -5.5 v West Virginia: I usually like to fade Iowa State as a home favorite, but in this case I think there's value here. West Virginia has been solid this year but they are a totally different team on the road than at home, where they have covered every game. QB Doege has been scattershot on the road, and Iowa State's defense has been extremely tough against the run, which will force Doege to beat them through the air, which I think will be an unlikely scenario. West Virginia's success is due mostly to their solid defense, but I don't think they'll be able to stop Iowa State from doing what they want to do, which is run the ball. In their road games against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech, both of those squads put up with 200 rushing yards or close to it, and Iowa State runs it better than both of them. No motivation problem for the Cyclones here as they need to win to stay on track for the Big 12 title game. Now that this is under 6, I think it turns into a good play.

 

[Br@ssknux]

I hate being on favorites, but the dogs I liked don't appear to be much better, so whatever, right?

 

[oakas]

Nice hits on Ball State and the Cyclones, Big Fella