Week 13 Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

[Br@ssknux]

It's been just a terrible stretch for the plays I've posted here, I believe it was 4-8 last week which leads to a 20-27 mark since I started positing. Anybody who's had long term success handicapping knows that the worst thing you can do during a cold streak is to abandon the concepts that have worked for you consistently in the past. It's true though...nothing has worked in recent weeks. Although I'm due for a turnaround, if you faded me last week you printed cash. One way or another, I am determined to provide a service!! Happy Thanksgiving I guess?

1. @North Carolina +5.5 v Notre Dame: Although I have great respect for what Notre Dame has done this year(and how could you not?), I think this spot really favors North Carolina. Coming into the season, the Tar Heels fancied themselves an ACC contender, and as an extension of that, a borderline playoff hopeful. 2 really disappointing losses on the road to weak squads have torpedoed that ultimate dream, so they've had to set there sights on something else, and what better opportunity than to knock off a much hyped Notre Dame team and show the country what could have been? On the flipside, ND is coming off 2 emotional weeks, with the Clemson victory followed up with a rivalry game victory against BC when every Tom Dick and Harry was assuming they'd suffer a letdown. Now they have to get up for a superior effort, which will be required to beat the Tar Heels in this spot, while a rematch with Clemson occupies a perpetual look ahead spot for the Irish.UNC offenses is so good that if ND doesn't play at the absolute top of their game, especially defensively, they can get embarrassed. I mentioned that both of the Tar Heel losses happened on the road, but this game is in Chapel Hill, and my goodness, the Heels have been borderline sadistic on their opponents at home. They've averaged better than 8 yards per play at home, with no preference to the pass or run games. Sam Howell has been explosive as well as efficient and their running backs have run wild. It's true that ND is a high caliber defense, but a lot of their stats are built against poor passing offenses, including Florida State, USF and a Kenny Pickett-less Pitt. Good pass defenses have had success against the Irish, so I think Howell and company will be able to move the ball. Based on some of the point totals NC hags given up, you might be afraid that their defense grades out to be potentially helpless against Book and Co, but on a per play basis, their defense has not been bad, and they have the ability to pressure the QB. This might be relevant as ND has a couple offensive linemen out this week. Even if ND plays great and finds themselves ahead by 10-12 points, the back door will always be open.

 

[B.A.R.]

Happy Thanksgiving...

This is gonna be a fun game, no doubt.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Thanks BAR. Same to you and yours. Couldn't resist having a play on that one.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Although I have a preference for Iowa and CMU, that might be the only Friday suggestion from me. Both Iowa and CMU seem like victims of an overinflated bias against their opponents, so I think the premium is a bit too expensive on those 2 favorites. After I sleep on it, I might change my mind though.....

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Iowa State +1 @ Texas: Now that Iowa State has switched back over to the dog role here, I'm going to jump on it. These teams are obviously very evenly matched, with Texas making big improvements from past years on the defensive side. You could always count on the Horns to be among the worst tackling outfits among actual decent power 5 teams, but it seems they've been competent in that area this year. It's a good thing because they'll be tested by Breece Hall, the latest Iowa State running back after David Montgomery and others that you actually have to physically wrestle to the ground. Although the teams are close, I think I'm getting the better team with the short dog, and as we know, "who the dog is" is important in games involving Texas under Tom Herman. I think Iowa State's defense is a little better match for Texas's offense, especially the running game, than vice versa, and I think the pass rush that Iowa State can generate vs the lack of a pass rush coming from Texas is going to allow Purdy to be comfortable in the pocket. When he's pressured, he makes terrible mistakes, but that's not Texas's forte defensively. I just see the Cyclones are more capable of coming out with the win in this one.

3. @Iowa -13.5 v Nebraska: I decided to pull the trigger on this one while it's still under 14. If Nebraska starts and sticks with Luke McCaffrey at QB, they have no chance offensively in this game because although McCaffrey is a tough and capable runner, he absolutely cannot complete a pass downfield. Some of the throws he's made this year resemble an end over end field goal attempt more than a competently thrown spiral. Coming into last weeks game, Illinois couldn't cover your daughter's Powder Puff offense downfield, and they were begging McCaffrey to throw it downfield so they could step in front and pick off his ducks. I can't imagine what an actual top level pass D will do to him. Even if Martinez starts, he was benched for McCaffrey because they felt he wasn't seeing things downfield. That doesn't even mention the disadvantage the Huskers will find themselves in the running game on both sides of the ball. Iowa got off to a slow start offensively, but they have been very efficient three weeks in a row now and Nebraska has no shot to run on them as they're ranked 5th in the country against the run as well as overall yards per play. Nebraska is 87th against the run and just had 2 different Illinois running backs torch them for 100 yards apiece. Motivation won't be a problem because these two teams hate each other and Iowa let Nebraska come back on them and almost knock them off the past two years. Although I realize that I'm buying very high on a Nebraska fade, I can't see how they can have success in this game.

 

[2daBank]

im all about looking to take the dog in texas games but you really think it matters on a line that been back and forth and right around pk all week?

 

[Br@ssknux]

im all about looking to take the dog in texas games but you really think it matters on a line that been back and forth and right around pk all week?

I'm at the mercy of the market, hoping they go off as the dog, I know, and it's somewhat superficial, but there's been almost a karmic(if that's a word) effect on Texas one way or the other. I really like Iowa State as the winner here, but I wouldn't be comfortable even at a number below 3, so I'm just glad I got them as a dog at all.,

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Kent +8(-115) @Buffalo: To me, these appear to be the best two teams in the MAC this year, with a possible exception of Western Michigan by the end of the year. Neither team has played anyone worth a shit, with Kent's game against the road underdof version of Eastern Michigan probably representing the trickiest opponent on either team's schedule. Both of these teams have been dynamite offensively so far, although both teams rushing stats have been skewed with games against Bowling Green's putrid rush defense. I'd imagine that I'd probably be on the underdog in this game regardless of who it was , as these teams are very similar. I think with Kent I have the better QB in Dustin Crum, but Buffalo has the better defense, at least based solely on the numbers. Kent has been equally good running it and throwing it, so I trust their offense to consistently put up points and stay in the game. They have also have been very good on 3rd down, which helps in close games. In a game like this, if I can get a TD or more, I'll be taking.

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. Maryland +11.5 @Indiana: I was able to cash a ticket on the Hoosiers last week(one of very few, unfortunately), but I've been against them in most weeks, getting burned in the process. I'm against them again this week, so I guess I'm a glutton for punishment. However, at some point, they are due for a clunker, and it seems like this week is a good candidate, coming off the loss that probably feels like a win to them considering all the positive vibes they got for hanging tough with Ohio State last week. Of all the postponements, the one I was most disappointed in the past couple of weeks was Maryland's with Ohio State. It would have been very interested how they would have responded against the Buckeyes coming off that humiliation of Penn State the week prior. Since getting thrashed by Northwestern in week 1 of the B1G schedule, they have looked unstoppable on offense, completely flummoxing Minnesota( not a big deal) and Penn State (a reasonably big deal). I think they find themselves in a good matchup here, as I think they'll be able to both run and throw on the Hoosiers, and their primary weakness on defense, (stopping the run) is not what Indiana can exploit, as they are currently 117th in the nation in rushing yards per carry. They've been good enough defending the pass that they should be able to hold their own against Penix and co. My hesitation on this one caused a much better number to float off the board, but I still think double digits is still a good value for the Terps here.

 

[twinkie13]

Liked Maryland when it came out.

GL this weekend bro

 

[2daBank]

I'm at the mercy of the market, hoping they go off as the dog, I know, and it's somewhat superficial, but there's been almost a karmic(if that's a word) effect on Texas one way or the other. I really like Iowa State as the winner here, but I wouldn't be comfortable even at a number below 3, so I'm just glad I got them as a dog at all.,

im def with you far as I never play the fav in tex games that I can think of, usually we just have a much more obvious dog than in this one. I prefer isu overall as well but both these teams can be a tad more inconsistent than I’d prefer week to week. I’m really not sure how big (if any) advantage it may be that horns havnt played in few weeks while isu on short week? The more I worked on this one the less confident I got trying to come up with a score I felt good about. Everything just screamed pass to me, hopefully I regret it and you take the cash! Think I’ll watch a little, see how both teams look and possibly come in with a live or halftime play.

I was so excited for 2 days of ncaa fb but I really havnt found much of anything I loved on today’s card. Gl

 

[2daBank]

I understand your thinking on Hoosiers not being able to truly exploit that bad Terps run d but I kinda look at it as a situation where Hoosiers will be able to run effectively. Other than last week against osu (which I don’t really think matters much far as game plan and stats seeing how osu just different than rest of conf) Hoosiers have given Scott ample opportunity to make a impact on the ground getting him 20+ carries in damn near every game! I recall gofers handing their featured back the ball 41x when they played terps! I certainly don’t expect anything like that but if Scott gets his typical 20ish carries I suspect he could be in line for his highest rush total of the season.

That certainly isn’t suggesting Terps can’t or won’t cover. I do wonder if this one these games where the total ties in fairly nice with a Terps cover? If they stay within the number feels like it be pretty high scoring affair, of course would have been nice to get down days ago since total has crept up to 64 from its 59-60 open. last 5x these 2 have met the game has played in the 60s or higher. I do see strong chance of some cold rain which I would assume will drive total back down but of course have to determine how much/if any impact that will have on flow of this game? Where you have this one score wise?

 

[Inspekdah]

2. Iowa State +1 @ Texas: Now that Iowa State has switched back over to the dog role here, I'm going to jump on it. These teams are obviously very evenly matched, with Texas making big improvements from past years on the defensive side. You could always count on the Horns to be among the worst tackling outfits among actual decent power 5 teams, but it seems they've been competent in that area this year. It's a good thing because they'll be tested by Breece Hall, the latest Iowa State running back after David Montgomery and others that you actually have to physically wrestle to the ground. Although the teams are close, I think I'm getting the better team with the short dog, and as we know, "who the dog is" is important in games involving Texas under Tom Herman. I think Iowa State's defense is a little better match for Texas's offense, especially the running game, than vice versa, and I think the pass rush that Iowa State can generate vs the lack of a pass rush coming from Texas is going to allow Purdy to be comfortable in the pocket. When he's pressured, he makes terrible mistakes, but that's not Texas's forte defensively. I just see the Cyclones are more capable of coming out with the win in this one.

3. @Iowa -13.5 v Nebraska: I decided to pull the trigger on this one while it's still under 14. If Nebraska starts and sticks with Luke McCaffrey at QB, they have no chance offensively in this game because although McCaffrey is a tough and capable runner, he absolutely cannot complete a pass downfield. Some of the throws he's made this year resemble an end over end field goal attempt more than a competently thrown spiral. Coming into last weeks game, Illinois couldn't cover your daughter's Powder Puff offense downfield, and they were begging McCaffrey to throw it downfield so they could step in front and pick off his ducks. I can't imagine what an actual top level pass D will do to him. Even if Martinez starts, he was benched for McCaffrey because they felt he wasn't seeing things downfield. That doesn't even mention the disadvantage the Huskers will find themselves in the running game on both sides of the ball. Iowa got off to a slow start offensively, but they have been very efficient three weeks in a row now and Nebraska has no shot to run on them as they're ranked 5th in the country against the run as well as overall yards per play. Nebraska is 87th against the run and just had 2 different Illinois running backs torch them for 100 yards apiece. Motivation won't be a problem because these two teams hate each other and Iowa let Nebraska come back on them and almost knock them off the past two years. Although I realize that I'm buying very high on a Nebraska fade, I can't see how they can have success in this game.

I'm on both of these large. GL to us!

 

[Inspekdah]

Wonder why line is going down? -12.5 now

 

[2daBank]

Wonder why line is going down? -12.5 now

not sure. Thinking the total should come back down some it the weather forecast accurate, certainly makes sense if weather bad the points might be more attractive.

 

[B.A.R.]

Bump this back up

Really looking fwd to maryland and indy

 

[Br@ssknux]

I understand your thinking on Hoosiers not being able to truly exploit that bad Terps run d but I kinda look at it as a situation where Hoosiers will be able to run effectively. Other than last week against osu (which I don’t really think matters much far as game plan and stats seeing how osu just different than rest of conf) Hoosiers have given Scott ample opportunity to make a impact on the ground getting him 20+ carries in damn near every game! I recall gofers handing their featured back the ball 41x when they played terps! I certainly don’t expect anything like that but if Scott gets his typical 20ish carries I suspect he could be in line for his highest rush total of the season.

That certainly isn’t suggesting Terps can’t or won’t cover. I do wonder if this one these games where the total ties in fairly nice with a Terps cover? If they stay within the number feels like it be pretty high scoring affair, of course would have been nice to get down days ago since total has crept up to 64 from its 59-60 open. last 5x these 2 have met the game has played in the 60s or higher. I do see strong chance of some cold rain which I would assume will drive total back down but of course have to determine how much/if any impact that will have on flow of this game? Where you have this one score wise?

I figure low 60's. I'm a bad totals player though, so you probably don't want to get my advice on it.

 

[Br@ssknux]

Liked Maryland when it came out.

GL this weekend bro

Thanks Twink. I grabbed MD at 14.5 early this week, but that number is long gone. I always just use the lines that are available when I get around to writing them up. Also hooked MD money line with Iowa State on a 2 teamer, so here's hoping they find a way to win outright..

 

[Br@ssknux]

FAU -6.5 and Colorado +12 were definitely going to be plays for me, as was IL +28. Probably just saved myself some cash the way things have been going lately.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Georgia Southern +1.5 @ Georgia State: This line has fluctuated on either side of the pick em ledger, but it's recently moved to the Georgia State side, reaching 1.5 tonight. In my opinion that results in the wrong team being favored. State's primary strength is running the football, but they'll have a hard time running it on Southern's 19th ranked run defense. I'm skeptical that State can move it on a good defense. They've gotten fat on weak defenses such as Arky State, Lou Monroe, ECU and South Alabama, but when they've faced solid to good defenses such as Appy State or Coastal Carolina, they've scored 13 and 0 points respectively, and Georgia Southern much more strongly resembles those 2 squads than the flimsy defenses I mentioned prior. Ga Southern has been consistent all year on offense, ranked 14th in rushing and 34th in yards per attempt in the few instances in which they felt the need to pass. Georgia State os no pushover, but they're the inferior squad on both sides of the ball so I'll take my chances that they can bring home a win.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. North Texas +3 @ UTSA: Here's another case of a vulnerable defense with some offensive virtues finding themselves in a good matchup. UNT is putrid against good passing attacks, but friends, UTSA is not a good passing attack. They are ranked 108th, and definitely prefer to run. UNT isn't great at stopping the run either, but it looks like the Mean Green will have a considerable advantage when they have the ball. They're ranked 12th in yards per play, 9th in rushing yards per carry and 27th in yards per pass attempt. UTSA has been decent on defense, but they certainly haven't set the world on fire, and NT has a considerable advantage in both the passing game and running game, as well as on 3rd down. If NT can get some open possessions from UTSA on the basis of turnovers or penalties, I think they'll put themselves in a great spot to win, and I don't see this game a s a blowout.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. South Alabama +7.5 @ Arkansas State: When I looked at this game, I was taken aback at how similar these two squads are statistically. I'll be nice and say they're both "below average" but both offenses, despite not being all that great will have the edge over the terrible defenses. You'd think the line would be set accordingly, but there's still some respect in the market for Arky State despite their defense ranking 116th in yards per play, 116th against the pass and 95th on 3rd down. With those defensive limitations, I just don't see how Arky State can be more than a TD favorite in this one, especially since the Jags figure to be able to throw the ball effectively on them. The Jags also have been surprisingly good on 3rd down on both sides of the ball, while the Red Wolves have failed badly in this area all year. In the major head to head categories that I look at the closest, I have USA with the edge in 4 of the 6 categories, so I'll take the points here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. Mississippi State +9.5 @Ole Miss: Although Mississippi State has been an abomination on offense for much of the year, they've been pretty good defensively, and they seemed to have even turned the corner a bit on offense after playing Georgia very tough last week. That game last week was a great sign for the Bulldogs, as the vibe in the program seemed to be slipping as Mike Leach started doing what he normally does...i.e. complain about his players to the point of the risk of a mutiny. If their offense is picking up momentum, they started it against a defense that is light years better than the one they'll play this weekend, so they'll have every opportunity to put points on the board. Defensively, they are very hard to run on (8 yards rushing allowed last week vs Georgia on 23 attempts), and Matt Corral is turnover prone. It's a rivalry game, so there will be plenty for MSU to play for, so I think they'll score enough to keep this one within the number.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. San Jose State +11.5 @ Boise: I think SJSU is a legitimately good squad. To wit: the Spartans are 19in offensive yards per play, 17th in yards per play allowed, 13th in rush defense and 22nd in passing yards per attempt. In addition to that, although they've been only mediocre against the pass, they are 5th in the country in generating sacks. Boise has given up their fair share of sacks this year, so you might see some disruption at the line of scrimmage. I wouldn't say that the sample is conclusive in saying that SJSU stacks up as the better squad, but I will say that SJSU has an edge in several major categories, so I'll have interest in the dog here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

11. @UCLA -10 v Arizona: IN their 2 games thus far this year, Arizona has been terrible in all phases on defense...112th in yards per play, 109th against the run 94th against the pass, 127th in sack percentage. I'm not sure who will be at QB for UCLA, but they've both played well, and they'll be comfortable in the pocket. I think we can expect RB Demetric Felton to run hard and effectively. The biggest surprise as it relates to UCLA is their defense, who despite already having played Oregon still has some gaudy per play numbers. UCLA has a sizable edge in almost all of the major matchup categories. In my experience, when it's this dramatic, the line is usually well north of 10, so it looks to me that there's value in that line. Sample sizes are always dicey, but I've noticed that things have stayed true to that even with only a couple games to go on.

 

[Br@ssknux]

12. Kansas State +6 @Baylor: I was on Kansas State last week when they played at Iowa State, and that might have been the biggest whiff I've had in 10 years! Iowa State was able to completely shut down their run game, and since Skylar Thompson has been out, they've been helpless in the passing attack. The reason I was on K State last week was my respect for HC Chris Kliemann and the culture that he's maintained at K State from when it existed under Bill Snyder. This week they face a Baylor squad that has struggled as badly as they have on offense, and their advantages on that side of the ball should keep them in the game. At some point, Kleimann and company have to figure out a way to get some offense generated...they've lost 3 in a row and teams with the kind of culture that K State has turn things around in games like this. Baylor is a candidate to get it turned around against as they are in a flux, and have dropped 5 in a row themselves. Smarter people may have already moved on from the Wildcats, but I can't help but see value in 6 points for them in a role they relish.

 

[2daBank]

I figure low 60's. I'm a bad totals player though, so you probably don't want to get my advice on it.

I ended up on Terps. Gl today

 

[Br@ssknux]

Watching Maryland's offense and Kent State's defense over the past couple of hours was one of the most depressing experiences of my life. I sure can pick em!! Also, nice collapse by Ga Southern. Wow.

 

[Timh]

The perils of these Covid games and privacy issues, really hinders any good info on player availability. Today, Terps missing top two receivers Jarret and Jones, top RB Funk, two starting OL Center and RG. I thought their defense kept them in the game in 1H, but they just got worn down and couldn't pass block to the point where play action wasn't in the realm for them anymore which hurt young Taulia. Indiana was patient and realized at half, they needed to just run the ball more against MD in 2H and it paid off. Tough to beat yourself up for this one Brass, just too many unknowns with player availability in this one. Fwiw I think your instincts were correct given full staffing by both teams.

 

[Eric Antrobus]

Same thing happened to me in the Kentucky game. UK was down 17 guys and many were key players. But it miraculously cashed. Hard to cap this year.

 

[Br@ssknux]

The perils of these Covid games and privacy issues, really hinders any good info on player availability. Today, Terps missing top two receivers Jarret and Jones, top RB Funk, two starting OL Center and RG. I thought their defense kept them in the game in 1H, but they just got worn down and couldn't pass block to the point where play action wasn't in the realm for them anymore which hurt young Taulia. Indiana was patient and realized at half, they needed to just run the ball more against MD in 2H and it paid off. Tough to beat yourself up for this one Brass, just too many unknowns with player availability in this one. Fwiw I think your instincts were correct given full staffing by both teams.

Thanks for the reassurance Timmy. Despite all that, I still thought they should have been up at least a score at halftime.

You know it’s a bad day when you bet on TWO teams that allowed a 200 yard rusher in the first half.

 

[2daBank]

If baby Tua didn’t suck so bad terps have at least 17 points which woulda covered. 17 points kinda selling them short too, hell they had 4 red zone trips w nothing. 2 wide open wrs in end zone. Then they still might have covered despite all that if he didn’t take that safety. Just bad bad bad!!