Week 13 lookahead lines/thoughts

D-Woww

D-Woww

Old Man Dan
WTF cap, its almost 9am on a Monday and you don't have this up yet? Slacker! :cool:

Here is what I have at the moment:

NO -7.5 @ Dallas
Balty -3 @ Atlanta
LAR -9.5 @ Detroit
Cleveland @ Houston -4.5
Indy -3.5 @ Jacksonville
Buffalo at Miami -6
Carolina -4 @ Tampa
KC -15 @ Oakland
Minnesota @ NE -7
SF @ Seattle -10
LAC @ Steelers -3.5
Washington @ Philly -6.5
 
no lines on Denver/Cincy, Zona/GB (what are they waiting for here? is somebody hurt?), Chicago/NYG and NYJ/Tennessee
 
Dallas is playing good ball, I know the Saints are juggernauts but I kind of think Dallas can stay within a fg; saints have to be due for a less than pristine effort

Has Baltimore announced anything regarding Flacco? Harbaugh is an idiot if he lets Flaccid start one more game this season, healthy or not, but he is the old school type who may feel "loyalty" to his veteran. Either way, Atl puts up mad points at home, and I am not sure Baltimore can keep up; love what Lamar is doing, but if the Falcons get 14 early and make the Ravens pass more, not sure the Ravens can keep up. Atl is a potential banger, depending on more info.

Detroit has played well against good teams this season, could see them keeping it close. Rams pass D is real bad and if the Lions can do anything, its sling the ball.

Cleveland looks like a different team, Gimme those points.

Indy/Jacksonville could be a wonky game, not interested in getting involved

It is hard to lay points with Miami, but the Bills should probably be 9 point underdogs here; im just ok with laying less than a TD vs Josh Allen on the road

Panthers have crushed me lately. Eventually they are gonna win, this is a must win for their playoff hopes. Tampa is just such a weird team. I wanna lay the 4 but that is square as hell

KC could score 70 if they wanted to in Oakland. I am not afraid of laying 15, just gonna have to look at a few things and decide if im gonna go teaser or ats

Can anyone tell me what business the Pats have laying 7 against a team that is competent?

Nick Mullens was a nice story for awhile, but now that that is done with, Seattle should roll. Again, I am not afraid to lay dds, think Seattle wins this one in the 28-13 range.

Gut tells me steelers rout the chargers at home off a bad loss, but likely a no play. Line is about right.

I don't see how my boys should be laying more than 3 against anyone right now, but ill be at the game so no way im taking Washington.

Leans:

Atl -3
Dallas +7.5
Cle +4.5 (this will be 3 by gametime)
Miami -6
KC -15
Seattle -10
Steelers -3.5

potential 3 team/10 pt teaser with KC -5/Seattle pk and either an open spot or possibly one more side or total.

lots more discussion to come, this is just initial leans and thoughts
 
D-Woww said:
Has Baltimore announced anything regarding Flacco? Harbaugh is an idiot if he lets Flaccid start one more game this season, healthy or not, but he is the old school type who may feel "loyalty" to his veteran. Either way, Atl puts up mad points at home, and I am not sure Baltimore can keep up; love what Lamar is doing, but if the Falcons get 14 early and make the Ravens pass more, not sure the Ravens can keep up. Atl is a potential banger, depending on more info.
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I get the impression that Harbaugh auditioned Lamar in the first half yesterday to see if he could put up numbers through the air. They had 10 runs and 18 passes in the first half, and the only TD ended up being on a punt return.

Second half they went back to the ground and pound approach, 33 runs, 8 passes, killer TOP and 2 TDs.

So Harbaugh either has faith in his D to play like Dallas did and hold Ryan to FGs and win ugly, or he doesn't and he needs Flacco to be able to air it out.

What he'll probably do is cover both bases, start Lamar but keep him on a short leash and throw Flacco in if they fall behind by two scores.
 
Gandolf said:
I get the impression that Harbaugh auditioned Lamar in the first half yesterday to see if he could put up numbers through the air. They had 10 runs and 18 passes in the first half, and the only TD ended up being on a punt return.

Second half they went back to the ground and pound approach, 33 runs, 8 passes, killer TOP and 2 TDs.

So Harbaugh either has faith in his D to play like Dallas did and hold Ryan to FGs and win ugly, or he doesn't and he needs Flacco to be able to air it out.

What he'll probably do is cover both bases, start Lamar but keep him on a short leash and throw Flacco in if they fall behind by two scores.
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that is a great call, I was wondering wtf harbaugh was doing in the 1h. flacco just sucks so bad right now, at least the ground attack keeps them in every game as they control the time of possession. of course if they face a qb who can throw and they end up down early, they are likely done, but I hope harbaugh understand that flacco is cooked; if im a ravens fan, id rather spend the rest of the season seeing how lamar develops as a passer than watch flacco play one more drive.
 
D-Woww said:
Can anyone tell me what business the Pats have laying 7 against a team that is competent?
Click to expand...

Seemed like the Pats came out of their game fairly healthy and the Vikes have Xavier Rhodes getting an MRI on his knee today. Could be a huge edge if the "Rhodes" are no longer closed.
 
WHat do you guys think of a Colts and Packers ML parlay? Will be a bit chalky but looks so solid? or just buy a point for Colts -2.5
 
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wouldn't try to time a poor performance from NO just because they're due.

Like ATL as a dog and think BAL has proven they are an average team and with Jackson they won't be able to exploit ATL's weakness in the secondary. Well, Flacco may not be able to either

MIA is not good, pushed IND to the brink but that isn't enough to make me want to lay that many against a good BUF defense
 
I wouldn't want to throw a bunch of money at Packers, especially for some weak payout when their postseason hopes just got snatched. Cards could go in there and surprise when you're sitting there trying to risk 15 to win 1
 
austinhous said:
I wouldn't want to throw a bunch of money at Packers, especially for some weak payout when their postseason hopes just got snatched. Cards could go in there and surprise when you're sitting there trying to risk 15 to win 1
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I‘d just do MLto kill the chalk of buying Indy under a field goal
 
I just pounded colts -4. If I lose I lose, I know the jags have a decent defense, but give me Luck/Hilton/Ebron/Mack over Kessler/Moncrief/James O'Shaugnessey/Yeldon 100 times out of 100, combined with the fact that Jacksonville seems to be throwing in the towel
 
Rams in awful spot imo off epic mnf win. Eminems overachieve big time at home and can pass all over Rams D
 
Gandolf said:
Seemed like the Pats came out of their game fairly healthy and the Vikes have Xavier Rhodes getting an MRI on his knee today. Could be a huge edge if the "Rhodes" are no longer closed.
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Pats home ATS has something to do with it also. I do think the line is a couple points too high, 5 seems about right but I see no long-term future in taking less than 7 at home against the Pats.
 
D-Woww said:
I just pounded colts -4. If I lose I lose, I know the jags have a decent defense, but give me Luck/Hilton/Ebron/Mack over Kessler/Moncrief/James O'Shaugnessey/Yeldon 100 times out of 100, combined with the fact that Jacksonville seems to be throwing in the towel
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Don‘t forget DeDe Westbrook! :D
 
D-Woww said:
wtf happened to keelan cole. I know he was undrafted but he looked real good last year. this year hes garbage
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Bortles happened lol. Cole came on end of last season with Bortles and he was great vs Pats like Bortles was. Otherwise nothing
 
Bortles is Tannehill.

2 guys that were receiver and tight end before only playing 1 season of college football.

These guys are exceptional talents. The fact that they are playing qb in nfl despite being a life long receiver is Amaxing.

No surprise that they are struggling in nfl
 
The thing about D-backs and WRs is they get annoying with their yapping and cockiness, but if you take that away, you take away what makes them great. It is frustrating, because Ramsey's comments really had no upside and a ton of downside, but that is the swag you need him to have. In philly we have Jalen Mills who drives fans nuts with that stuff...hell get burnt to a crisp but the pass will be overthrown and hell be making gestures like he just made a great play. It absolutely is annoying, but you have to let them have that cockiness, even if it is irrational, because that's how they got where they are
 
Zeke said:
Pats home ATS has something to do with it also. I do think the line is a couple points too high, 5 seems about right but I see no long-term future in taking less than 7 at home against the Pats.
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Pats always kick the Vike's asses. I think 7 is fair.
 
This is my least favorite game every four years. They both need the W to stay in their respective playoff races. Will probably use Vikes in some sort of teaser so I can get a form of a win from both my teams. NFW do I see this Pats teams blowing out anyone with a good D.
 
The thing I don't like about the Vikes this week is that it's hard enough to win games in this league. This will be the 3rd "big game" in a row with B2B SNF games and now this. They they go to Seattle next week. That's 3/4 OTR too. The tank can't be very full at this point. Due for a clunker. Hope not, but that's how this team rolls historically.
 
P-Unit said:
The thing I don't like about the Vikes this week is that it's hard enough to win games in this league. This will be the 3rd "big game" in a row with B2B SNF games and now this. They they go to Seattle next week. That's 3/4 OTR too. The tank can't be very full at this point. Due for a clunker. Hope not, but that's how this team rolls historically.
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Their clunker came two weeks ago vs Chicago. Weather is kind of shitty up here now, not sure about game time. I could see Vikes having success passing on Pats.
 
Agree Zeke, Vikes could have a decent passing day vs Pats in the short and middle range. Vikes QB a little suspect on long range, Pats are healthy though and we have not had many weeks where we have been, if any. Probably won't play the total but under seems reasonable as I can see sustained drives by both teams.
 
I have finally realized that Frank Reich has implemented an unbelievably effective offensive approach. If he had the skill players like Rams/Chiefs it would be more obvious
 
I think I'm feeling the over in Miami. Gase's home games tend to go over against a good pass defense - like about 90% of the time when the opposing pass defense allow 242 or fewer per game, plus about 3 of every 4 of Gase's home games have gone over the total anyway. And I think I like the points with the Bills. Sean McDermott won both of the games against Gase in his first season last year and is going for the first three-game win streak in his career.

The Bills need to find the end zone first in this game. McDermott 9-0 career when they score the first TD, and only 1-12 when the opponent gets out to a 6-0 lead or better. I think that's going to be a super quick indicator of how the game turns out. I really think Bills have to score first and shut out the Fish in the 1st quarter.

Also, not only is McDermott going for his first three-game win streak, one Rochester reporter thinks that the goal line stand following last week's brawl with Jacksonville might "stand as a highlight of the season" and "serve as the turning point that McDermott’s young squad came together as a team." McDermott later said there’s no room for fighting in the game, but admitted he loved the way his team responded.

And speaking of brawls, the last time these two teams faced each other last December a brawl broke out with helmet-chucking and everything. Miami is 2-6 in their last eight games, but the Bills are on a streak and might be starting to gel as a team. I'm taking the Bills, plus I think they own the brawling advantage as well. If I can find an over ½ brawls prop I'm buying that one too.
 
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