s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
I'm running through and just thinking out loud:
Bowling Green +588
Battle of I-75 for the Peace Pipe Trophy. Toledo won 7 straight. I see improvement in this BG team, although I must admit I have been playing them off-and-on throughout the year with mostly disappointing results. 1-5 BG only lost to 4-1 Tol by 7 as 31pt dog (was tied 35-35, Tol only out gained them by 31y). Tol likely angry after the OU debacle, no doubt what happened in Athens is the exception, Rockets still quality team. RB Swanson doubtful? He is a big loss, but UT should be able to gameplan without him, but won't be as effective running without him. BG D is concerning. Probably just take a shot ats instead.
Western Michigan +271
Man if it wasn't Goddard at QB this would be a great bet, but the odds would be quite different as well. In his two starts he has completed just 33% (heavy rain first start) and 42% (vs Kent) and he hasn't shown to be quite the dual-threat some had hoped. This is his road start and NIU does get respectable home crowds for a MAC team. I like WM D and their run game, who doesn't, but the QB liability may be too much to take the plunge on this. NIU D is their best side of the ball too. Probably shouldn't have even listed it LOL.
Temple +410
UCF feels like it is starting to slip a little bit to me. Watching the SMU game they had tons of big plays on O, but looked suspect on D at times. Temple is improving, although this is going to be a big step up from what they had been playing recently. Not quite sure Temple is ready for this, but think it could be competitive.
SMU +384
I've liked SMU a good bit this year. What really impressed me last week was the comeback vs Navy. Now ofcourse they allowed tons of yards and they got in that 3 score hole in the first place, but it is so hard to stop Navy repeatedly and make a comeback, their D made some plays. Their D isn't going to win this game either. Just like it didn't vs UCF, allowed many big plays to UCF. But what their D can do is make some timely plays and give them a chance. SMU O should be able to hang and score in this game. Memphis is quality team, however they started slow vs Tulsa. Played a poor second half vs Tulane. Started slow vs Houston. They don't seem to be very consistent of late. Memphis has won the last 2 years vs SMU 114-7 so there is that.
Virginia +837
This game is all about the potential of Virginia vs the inconsistency of Miami. It could very well be that Miami has risen to a different level from their own success and confidence. They are not short on confidence for sure. But we do remember the UNC game, or the Syracuse game..not that long ago. Maybe Syracuse is better than Virginia though. Scarest part of this is the turnover chain has produce 4 turnovers in 4 straight games...and Benkert had been known to throw an INT or two. But he also has 21 TD passes and this UVA O has had some flashes this year. Production is few and far between however. Actually I would think that UVA D has a chance to matchup ok because that isn't the best part of Miami's team, they aren't overly threatening. Then there is the hangover factor for Canes. HUGE home games vs Virginia Tech and Notre Dame..now here comes little old Virginia. Miami won by 20 last year.
Michigan +230
Just the biggest home game of the year for Wisconsin, sure they will be up, although a noon kick? Badgers looked amazing on D last week and has been so good on D all year. Some questionable games here and there, but they do what it takes and keep doing it. Harbaugh is going to have to gameplan his ass off in this one to succeed. Hopefully they can just score TDs and not need FGs. Gotta think Michigan D is going to make life really hard on Bucky.
Baylor +263
Bears deserved better last week, 3 turnovers in the RZ and TTech had 2 nonO TDs. Can ISU keep it going with another new starting QB?
Hawaii +313
Warriors been competitive in their 3 mainland trips vs teams their own size this year. Utah St is about what their record says they are, average MW team. Hawaii has show capable of playing within one score of similar teams this year. Thinking UH RB Saint Juste will be able to run well, MWC's #2 rusher behind Penny. The high in Logan Saturday is 39.
Duke +195
Bye, option, option. Sound familiar? It's what Temple had, they played Army, bye, Navy. Can't think of too many better scenarios for Duke to be taking on GT. A big problem is the Duke O isn't producing. They showed better than the score indicated vs Army, but their O has been really bad for most of this year. Nothing to really like at the moment other than the situation.
Syracuse +384
Virginia burned me last week at LV, do I want to do it again? If Dungey is ready to go Cuse > Virginia. Is that enough? The improved Syracuse D has a 2016 flashback last week and have lost 3 straight since upsetting Clemson. Although the games at Mia and at FSU they competed well. This O can produce vs just about anyone, but last week's D performance is going to give anyone cold feet now facing Lamar Jackson. His Heisman campaign was launched last year after shredding Cuse.
San Jose St +7000
This game should not be remotely close with the kind of firepower that CSU has and what SJ has rolled out onto the field this year. But I saw a team's heart literally ripped out then their nuts were smashed last week when CSU collapsed vs Boise. For that reason alone I can find enough change in my couch cushions to throw on this ML because I can honestly say I would not be one bit surprised if CSU lost this game.
Maryland +520
Just a hunch, nothing more nothing less. Mary has been a fairly unpredictable team this year, played a little better vs Michigan than I might've thought and has shown that they can surprise SU as dogs. Don't really feel that MSU should lay 3 scores to many teams and wonder if Durkin and Co can form a gameplan from watching the OSU game.
Coastal Carolina +263
Not if Linehan can play. If he is out then this upset could happen.
Florida International +477
The only time I bet against FAU this year was Marshall and I was really scared seeing how FAU started, but the more that game wore on I didn't think they were anything special. They appeared to have a blowout last week, but LT just kicked FGs instead of scoring TDs. FIU got their bubble burst last week, but I still think highly of them. I don't too often believe in look-ahead, and the players and coaches would never admit it if they suspected it. But the hype for this game started to ramp up a few weeks ago and it is possible that FIU may've taken ODU lightly last week and it bit them. They still had their chances to win that one, but turnvoers kept it from happening. Pretty interesting game. I saw some things in the Marshall - FAU game that led me to believe FAU can certainly be beat on D. Litton was high on so many throws and I think 4 INTs. McGough is vet, all I can hope is he isn't as erratic as Litton was and FIU should be able to compete.
Vanderbilt +249
Mizzou is having a great season since their week 5 bye...6-0 ATS! And they are just crushing people of late. Thought Vandy had regrouped nicely out of their bye vs SCar and WKU, then UK humbled them. Got to consider this one further, but thinking if Vandy O can get going again it could be a back-and-forth game perhaps.
California +548
The Big Game. Last year was close before Stanford pulled away for 14pt win. Think Cal is improved this year, Stanford is kind of the same. Cal off a win and late season bye. Their O is going to have to produce as that has been the most inconsistent part of their team. The D should have a chance, Stanford usually only scored between 20-30 pts most weeks.
I wanted to list Utah, but god that team is a mess.
I'm tired. Feels like I negative talked those more than anything else. Will probably have more thoughts as the week goes on and the prospect list gets narrowed down.
Bowling Green +588
Battle of I-75 for the Peace Pipe Trophy. Toledo won 7 straight. I see improvement in this BG team, although I must admit I have been playing them off-and-on throughout the year with mostly disappointing results. 1-5 BG only lost to 4-1 Tol by 7 as 31pt dog (was tied 35-35, Tol only out gained them by 31y). Tol likely angry after the OU debacle, no doubt what happened in Athens is the exception, Rockets still quality team. RB Swanson doubtful? He is a big loss, but UT should be able to gameplan without him, but won't be as effective running without him. BG D is concerning. Probably just take a shot ats instead.
Western Michigan +271
Man if it wasn't Goddard at QB this would be a great bet, but the odds would be quite different as well. In his two starts he has completed just 33% (heavy rain first start) and 42% (vs Kent) and he hasn't shown to be quite the dual-threat some had hoped. This is his road start and NIU does get respectable home crowds for a MAC team. I like WM D and their run game, who doesn't, but the QB liability may be too much to take the plunge on this. NIU D is their best side of the ball too. Probably shouldn't have even listed it LOL.
Temple +410
UCF feels like it is starting to slip a little bit to me. Watching the SMU game they had tons of big plays on O, but looked suspect on D at times. Temple is improving, although this is going to be a big step up from what they had been playing recently. Not quite sure Temple is ready for this, but think it could be competitive.
SMU +384
I've liked SMU a good bit this year. What really impressed me last week was the comeback vs Navy. Now ofcourse they allowed tons of yards and they got in that 3 score hole in the first place, but it is so hard to stop Navy repeatedly and make a comeback, their D made some plays. Their D isn't going to win this game either. Just like it didn't vs UCF, allowed many big plays to UCF. But what their D can do is make some timely plays and give them a chance. SMU O should be able to hang and score in this game. Memphis is quality team, however they started slow vs Tulsa. Played a poor second half vs Tulane. Started slow vs Houston. They don't seem to be very consistent of late. Memphis has won the last 2 years vs SMU 114-7 so there is that.
Virginia +837
This game is all about the potential of Virginia vs the inconsistency of Miami. It could very well be that Miami has risen to a different level from their own success and confidence. They are not short on confidence for sure. But we do remember the UNC game, or the Syracuse game..not that long ago. Maybe Syracuse is better than Virginia though. Scarest part of this is the turnover chain has produce 4 turnovers in 4 straight games...and Benkert had been known to throw an INT or two. But he also has 21 TD passes and this UVA O has had some flashes this year. Production is few and far between however. Actually I would think that UVA D has a chance to matchup ok because that isn't the best part of Miami's team, they aren't overly threatening. Then there is the hangover factor for Canes. HUGE home games vs Virginia Tech and Notre Dame..now here comes little old Virginia. Miami won by 20 last year.
Michigan +230
Just the biggest home game of the year for Wisconsin, sure they will be up, although a noon kick? Badgers looked amazing on D last week and has been so good on D all year. Some questionable games here and there, but they do what it takes and keep doing it. Harbaugh is going to have to gameplan his ass off in this one to succeed. Hopefully they can just score TDs and not need FGs. Gotta think Michigan D is going to make life really hard on Bucky.
Baylor +263
Bears deserved better last week, 3 turnovers in the RZ and TTech had 2 nonO TDs. Can ISU keep it going with another new starting QB?
Hawaii +313
Warriors been competitive in their 3 mainland trips vs teams their own size this year. Utah St is about what their record says they are, average MW team. Hawaii has show capable of playing within one score of similar teams this year. Thinking UH RB Saint Juste will be able to run well, MWC's #2 rusher behind Penny. The high in Logan Saturday is 39.
Duke +195
Bye, option, option. Sound familiar? It's what Temple had, they played Army, bye, Navy. Can't think of too many better scenarios for Duke to be taking on GT. A big problem is the Duke O isn't producing. They showed better than the score indicated vs Army, but their O has been really bad for most of this year. Nothing to really like at the moment other than the situation.
Syracuse +384
Virginia burned me last week at LV, do I want to do it again? If Dungey is ready to go Cuse > Virginia. Is that enough? The improved Syracuse D has a 2016 flashback last week and have lost 3 straight since upsetting Clemson. Although the games at Mia and at FSU they competed well. This O can produce vs just about anyone, but last week's D performance is going to give anyone cold feet now facing Lamar Jackson. His Heisman campaign was launched last year after shredding Cuse.
San Jose St +7000
This game should not be remotely close with the kind of firepower that CSU has and what SJ has rolled out onto the field this year. But I saw a team's heart literally ripped out then their nuts were smashed last week when CSU collapsed vs Boise. For that reason alone I can find enough change in my couch cushions to throw on this ML because I can honestly say I would not be one bit surprised if CSU lost this game.
Maryland +520
Just a hunch, nothing more nothing less. Mary has been a fairly unpredictable team this year, played a little better vs Michigan than I might've thought and has shown that they can surprise SU as dogs. Don't really feel that MSU should lay 3 scores to many teams and wonder if Durkin and Co can form a gameplan from watching the OSU game.
Coastal Carolina +263
Not if Linehan can play. If he is out then this upset could happen.
Florida International +477
The only time I bet against FAU this year was Marshall and I was really scared seeing how FAU started, but the more that game wore on I didn't think they were anything special. They appeared to have a blowout last week, but LT just kicked FGs instead of scoring TDs. FIU got their bubble burst last week, but I still think highly of them. I don't too often believe in look-ahead, and the players and coaches would never admit it if they suspected it. But the hype for this game started to ramp up a few weeks ago and it is possible that FIU may've taken ODU lightly last week and it bit them. They still had their chances to win that one, but turnvoers kept it from happening. Pretty interesting game. I saw some things in the Marshall - FAU game that led me to believe FAU can certainly be beat on D. Litton was high on so many throws and I think 4 INTs. McGough is vet, all I can hope is he isn't as erratic as Litton was and FIU should be able to compete.
Vanderbilt +249
Mizzou is having a great season since their week 5 bye...6-0 ATS! And they are just crushing people of late. Thought Vandy had regrouped nicely out of their bye vs SCar and WKU, then UK humbled them. Got to consider this one further, but thinking if Vandy O can get going again it could be a back-and-forth game perhaps.
California +548
The Big Game. Last year was close before Stanford pulled away for 14pt win. Think Cal is improved this year, Stanford is kind of the same. Cal off a win and late season bye. Their O is going to have to produce as that has been the most inconsistent part of their team. The D should have a chance, Stanford usually only scored between 20-30 pts most weeks.
I wanted to list Utah, but god that team is a mess.
I'm tired. Feels like I negative talked those more than anything else. Will probably have more thoughts as the week goes on and the prospect list gets narrowed down.
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