Week 12 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 11 Results:
Ohio +123
C Mich +103
UNC +290
Stanford +230
BYU +100
Army +150
GT +125
Auburn +121
KentLucky +113
S Alabama +385
Washington St +105
UAB +205
Old Dominion +330
Miami +165
Wyoming +115

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/?date=20171111
Here is the scores and odds link for lines if anyone prefers that for tracking
http://www.scoresandodds.com/grid_20171111.html

15 this week, There could have been a few more added to that list if a couple of breaks bounced our way, that were discussed in our Week 11 thread. Just to name a few Messy St, Colorado St, WKU but hey ........
"insert your favorite cliche here"

Again thanks to everyone that adds their .02 cents worth to the thread, its worth every penny!!

On to Week 12
Good Luck
 
Professionals must be reading this thread weekly, because there were a few that flipped from dogs to favorites. I got a couple in early that pulled through that ended the week as favs.

The Col St game was disgusting. Watching the highlights Rams player #4 looked very disinterested.
 
ProV1Colt said:
books if Blackman doesn't throw that pick, i wonder if that outcome would have been different, that was the play of that game
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If Jimbo runs the f’n ball, instead of putting it in the hands of the Fresman QB,things could have been different. Go from down 3 and worst case a cover to losing by 17 and a non-cover.
 
ProV1Colt said:
books if Blackman doesn't throw that pick, i wonder if that outcome would have been different, that was the play of that game
Click to expand...

booksbestfriend said:
If Jimbo runs the f’n ball, instead of putting it in the hands of the Fresman QB,things could have been different. Go from down 3 and worst case a cover to losing by 17 and a non-cover.
Click to expand...

If Jimbo had run the ball they'd have never been within three points.
 
M.W. said:
If Jimbo had run the ball they'd have never been within three points.
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In this situation? 1st down on Clemson’s side of the field. Situation doesn’t call for a deep shot down the middle against cover-2. MW I know your a Tiger fan, but even you have to admit this was a horrible call.
 
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It might have been a bad play call, but y'all didn't -- and weren't going to - score by running the ball.

Your first TD drive was five passes for 86 yards (three completions and two PI penalties) plus four runs for four yards, and your other scoring drive was basically a 60-yard flea flicker. In other words, if Jimbo had taken your advice earlier in the game, y'all would have been shut out.
 
Last week was pretty light, only 3 upsets on Saturday by teams dogged by more than a FG.

Here are the best performers to date:

Central Michigan +130, +292, +155, +100 (2 in a row)
FIU +100, +368, +506, +203
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130
UAB +263, +166, +371, +192 (4 straight as dogs)

Teams with 3:
Arizona St +506, +711, +267
Boston College +639, +207, +199
Cal +410, +237, +639
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226
Maryland +664, +416, +203
North Texas +236, +100, +105
Rutgers +100, +237, +176
Utah St +100, +148, +144
 
Recommend we look into Michigan this week as my SDQL is looking good for them. Will post when I️ get more time.

Secondly, I️ have a massive trend on Eastern Michigan for Wednesday I️ will share. Back up the freaking truck on EMU!!
 
I'm sure I will be betting against Wisconsin...as I almost always do.

I still remember Michigan not covering last year vs Wisconsin when missing all 3 FG attempts. And not good right now as Michigan FG is not good. Nordin is 0-1 FGs three straight weeks. He hasn't made a FG since 10/14. I've felt confident going into a game because of solid K and special teams. Don't think I've ever not bet a team for fear of special teams or K letting them down. But it is hard to not see FG kicking not mattering in this game and is a big liability for Michigan right now.
 
Don't think I can bet Eastern Mich right now. I have liked them all year and they have been pretty good to me even though they found new ways to lose almost weekly (but continually covered as dogs). This past week Roback's risky passing style finally burned them. I will probably be on Miami if the spread cooperates.
 
Posted my SDQL thread for week 12. It has my trends for EMU, Michigan, and Coastal Carolina posted there.


Trend #1 is 1. Away dogs 2. Line between 1-10pts. 3. Dog has worse QB efficiency than opponent. 4. Dog has negative turnover margin. 5. Favorite also has negative turnover margin. 6. Both 2016 and 2017 results came back with records of 24-12 SU (66.7%) and 30-6 ATS (83.3%) over the last two seasons and is active on Coastal Carolina and EMU this week.

When I changed the line from 1-10pts to 1-5pts, it came back with records of 16-2 SU (88.9%) and 17-1 ATS (94.4%) over the last two seasons and is active on EMU.


Trend #2 is 1. Away dogs 2. Line between 1-10pts. 3. Dog has worse QB efficiency than opponent. 4. Dog has negative turnover margin. 5. Favorite has positive turnover margin. 6. Both 2016 and 2017 results and it came back with records of 19-17 SU (52.8%) and 27-9 ATS (75%) over the last two seasons and is active on Michigan this week.
 
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I prob will not be on WKU this week. But they have a great shot. Right now I lean MTSU. I will give the Over a look too.
WKU for sure is a Live Dog. No doubt though

I'm also curious how ArKansas and Messy St.
How will Ark come out from the LSU gm at home vs a Messy St that just gave their all against Bama,,,,,
Why not ride the UAB train. My god they do nothing but ML Dog win
 
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I see tremendous value in Virginia. Miami hyped and big money against UVA who was hungover vs Ville. Miami always plays down to opponent, why should this be different? Huge emotional letdown.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Why ??
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I like it because Stockstill is at QB. It's a local gm and these guys like to go at it. There are kids on these teams that will live near each other and you know shoot the shit about their gms later in life. Does that make any sense?
 
I see how that would justify betting the dog especially if it were a taller spread. But whats that have to do with total? Stockstill also having down year at qb and maybe the defenses want to smack the shit out of oppponent?
 
Stockstill is having a decent year. When facing competition that is equivilant. Went 1-1 to start the year against competition nobody would equate to be in their league. 2-0 the past two games, averaging 34/game. Why would you think otherwise? Mike White is not that bad either. These two teams are fully capable of getting 27 each.
 
booksbestfriend said:
I wished I could join you Capt.
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Think Michael Hughes could hurt em too. Just one of those Thursday night specials. Might go watch the first half. I can assure you the weakness of the conference has not prepared them for the playoffs and we'll have a monster opportunity to make mint when they play a real team. Top 5 team my ass. Cheers sir.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Stockstill comp % and ypa down dramatically.
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Very true but he is starting to feel a lot better after Cuse cracked his sternum and separated his collarbone on Sept. 9. He hurt his throwing shoulder as well. IMO they rushed him back but the kid wanted to play.
That's just what I've heard around town and on some local shows and papers.
 
booksbestfriend said:
That would be a SEC D, that had all offseason to prepare. And an ACC D that Is not good, but still recruits kids that Mid TN St could never land.
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I feel like you overemphasize the disparity between conferences and recruiting prestige. Anyhow Richie James is also an nfl-caliber guy, one instance of a small-conf guy who could play at a bigger program, and he's not there. But either way i don't think it's a big deal to beat cuse it's not like it was a huge upset, if the game were at mtsu mtsu would have been -1.5 actually
 
VirginiaCavs said:
6 points against Vandy then a surprisingly porous Cuse defense
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That gm against Vandy was both teams first gm of the season and it was hyped ALL summer around here. Vandy was well prepared for that gm. That was their "Bowl Game" to start the season. Vandys D was solid the 1st few gms then for whatever reason started to decline to where they are now.
 
captjohn67 said:
Think Michael Hughes could hurt em too. Just one of those Thursday night specials. Might go watch the first half. I can assure you the weakness of the conference has not prepared them for the playoffs and we'll have a monster opportunity to make mint when they play a real team. Top 5 team my ass. Cheers sir.
Click to expand...
good stuff Capt. Always love your thoughts! Especially on Jax St.
 
ProV1Colt said:
That gm against Vandy was both teams first gm of the season and it was hyped ALL summer around here. Vandy was well prepared for that gm. That was their "Bowl Game" to start the season. Vandys D was solid the 1st few gms then for whatever reason started to decline to where they are now.
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Bama has the effect. Hence, I will not play on any team following a game against Bama.
 
Just because vandy got killed after playing bama to not play every opponent of bama. That's one instance, hardly a credible data sample.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Just because vandy got killed after playing bama to not play every opponent of bama. That's one instance, hardly a credible data sample.
Click to expand...
But it is not one instance for me. We all have our little nuances to betting. One of mine is not to play a team after Bama week. This has been going on since 2010 for me.
 
I may be getting cold feet on Michigan...beyond the fear of FG issues.

Can Peters produce against Badger D? He hasn't been asked to do much and alot has come easy the last several weeks for Michigan. I've seen teams just crumble in the face of that Wisconsin D. Can't believe I might back out of betting against Wisconsin again. I've bet against Wisconsin 9 of 10 games this year. It hasn't been all bad ats 4-5, but obviously none of the 3 MLs hit and none of them were close to hitting over a 4 qrt game.

The Michigan D vs Wisconsin O is a fascinating matchup. How many INTs will Hornibrook throw? It is weird this is a 12:00 and not a 3:30.
 
I'm still a little sick from Colorado St last week. SVP is reminding me on Bad Beats at 3:30 am
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Just because vandy got killed after playing bama to not play every opponent of bama. That's one instance, hardly a credible data sample.
Click to expand...
Speaking of Vandy...believe it or not, Missouri came back in one of the queries I ran, as a sucker bet this Saturday....I have to go back and re-run that scenario as I think that was the one where my dog stepped on my laptop and screwed up my screen...I didn't get a chance to save the code....darn dogs!!

Oh hell!! Where is KJ when I need him?? KJ!! My dog messed up my results showing Vandy as a good dog this weekend!! How is that for surreal??
 
Are the people going for wmu over accounting for pace? I haven't check yet and am on mobile now but isn't wmu a lot slower paced this season?
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I see tremendous value in Virginia. Miami hyped and big money against UVA who was hungover vs Ville. Miami always plays down to opponent, why should this be different? Huge emotional letdown.
Click to expand...

Possible, but undefeated teams very rarely lose at home late in the year.
 
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