Week 12 Discussion Thread

36 feels awful low for thu night. I think it sucks steelers getting sent on the road for thu game after playing ravens. That only reason I’m scared to hit that -3.5. Winston gonna throw picks in this game i think a given. Pretty sure im playing over that number unless it a weather thing.
 
I don't get why the Giants are now switching to their third-string quarterback instead of to Lock. Why wasn't DeVito the backup if he was the second-best option.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
I don't get why the Giants are now switching to their third-string quarterback instead of to Lock. Why wasn't DeVito the backup if he was the second-best option.
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The fans are excited to watch Devito since he's a hero to the fans and Lock offers nothing anyway.
 
What upside would there be to playing Lock anyway. The Giants are a trash team with nothing to play for anyway and the fans love Devito even if he's a CFL level talent.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Isn‘t this is a really good argument for not incorporating incentives into your contract? Now Lock doesn’t get to play
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I dunno, for not doing jack shit I’m sure he still doing pretty well for himself: maybe putting those in and keeping yourself off the field extends your career of getting paid to hold a clipboard.
 
Beyond square but lay the 10 with Washington. Dallas is a bad team and getting worse as it throws in the towel more by the day. On top of this, teams love to beat it as badly as possible when given the opportunity. Texans were downright gleeful last night. More of that is on the horizon.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Beyond square but lay the 10 with Washington. Dallas is a bad team and getting worse as it throws in the towel more by the day. On top of this, teams love to beat it as badly as possible when given the opportunity. Texans were downright gleeful last night. More of that is on the horizon.
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I definitely need to stop betting on Dallas.
 
Really want to take some dogs this week but man it's tough to back half the league

Raiders were getting ready to go up 17-3 on Denver and threw a pick 6. Line seems high. - until you realize the raiders may be quitting

Patriots 7 vs Miami - Miami was even with raiders in box score , Miami scored every possession and cover was still up in air till end. At same time, pats defense likely not to get a stop either and give up more explosives and drake maye only looked that good once.

Thinking McDonald finally turned the tide which makes Seattle and San fran attractive this week to me.
 
2daBank said:
36 feels awful low for thu night. I think it sucks steelers getting sent on the road for thu game after playing ravens. That only reason I’m scared to hit that -3.5. Winston gonna throw picks in this game i think a given. Pretty sure im playing over that number unless it a weather thing.
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Predicting rain and wind
 
blackcrow said:
Predicting rain and wind
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I kinda figured with the weather coming thru stl today and 2marro it had potential to be super nasty on the lake in cle thu night. I think it will be an interesting case study if Wilson can connect with that moon bomb in shit weather, obviously the wind in cle could be Mira brutal than a super cold January game somewhere. I dunno how that deep ball Russ throws plays in wind? Whether it a crossing wind or post to post makes a big difference imo. Def more a case study going forward for me than a game im gonna look to play much on. I havnt looked at props but i assume they set really low, i can already guess id be looking at a warren rec prop but if the threat of the deep ball isn’t there the passes to running backs won’t be effective as they were to move the chains vs ravens, obviously more guys playing in box as well so got the feeling of a old school nasty afc north rock fight, if Steelers didn’t just have to play ravens Sunday I’d feel ok taking them if I could get decent price on -3 but not loving it given the situation. Feel like I might be at casino trying to grind out some profit at the roulette table next few days with fucking maction and this game prob not offering much opportunity to make any real money and I kinda need to make some! Lol:
 
EL CAPO said:
Really want to take some dogs this week but man it's tough to back half the league

Raiders were getting ready to go up 17-3 on Denver and threw a pick 6. Line seems high. - until you realize the raiders may be quitting

Patriots 7 vs Miami - Miami was even with raiders in box score , Miami scored every possession and cover was still up in air till end. At same time, pats defense likely not to get a stop either and give up more explosives and drake maye only looked that good once.

Thinking McDonald finally turned the tide which makes Seattle and San fran attractive this week to me.
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I wouldn’t worry bout effort with raiders, not saying they cover but that team ain’t gonna quit on Pierce, it just won’t happen. Have to look at how donks defend te’s but gotta think the fact raider best weapon is Bowers an advantage rather than it being a wr Sertain can take away. I’m actually warming up to raiders play, I’d love to get +6 but might not matter.

Agree w you bout some dogs but def not looking at pats, I think there lot of potential fish are just starting to crank things up, I’m not looking to take a bad team vs them at home, lay it or pass and wait till ppl buy them and they gotta go north! Lol

This won’t be popular and it scares shit out of me but colts getting more than 7 is kinda tempting vs lions, AR was way more accurate than he was anytime before the benching last week, and he finally ran it 10x which I been screaming at them all year he has to run it that many times a game for him to be able to keep the offense on schedule picking up some key 1st downs. I’d like to head what @B.A.R. Has to say bout lions d, I think colts might be able to run with AR/taylor combo and keep possessions low here. The biggest key will be colts d belong able to force a few fgs instead of tds early so they not forced into a game of AR has to pass and lions can give him all kinds of bull shit looks, if that happens I look stupid and lions backers keep winning. Even then AR could go a little super man and get a cover if we getting 7.5 or more. If ya want dogs sometimes the best ones scary as shit!! Lol


I think Bucs getting Mike Williams back or dare I’d say maybe giants? I’m fucking awful predicting that team tho and it been that way for years, basically only time I’m right is taking Dak to beat them. I could see them as a viable option but I hope to god I can find others I like more! lol


As much I’ve killed that scrub Levis I actually think this a spot getting 8.5 titans are worth a serious look. Houston hasn’t really got their offense figured out and even at beginning the year when they looked better they settled for lot of fgs, titans d outta be able to hold them to a low enough number long as Levis doesn’t make more than one his worst plays of the week plays this one feels like a no brainer cause you know titans d won’t just let mixon run all over them, nico back but Texans still working on pecking order after him. If you looking for dogs I feel like you gotta play this one, right?

For me today which is still early so no promises but I’d say 3 the stronger dogs this week be titans, raiders, and god help me colts (maybe, 😂).,
 
Aaron Glenn‘s Lions defense used to be a big fade for me against mobile quarterbacks, but they seemed to have kept Kyler in check. But maybe that was just an off day for Kyler? He did have his crutch McBride in that game
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Aaron Glenn‘s Lions defense used to be a big fade for me against mobile quarterbacks, but they seemed to have kept Kyler in check. But maybe that was just an off day for Kyler? He did have his crutch McBride in that game
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Lions still had that beast coming off the edge also. Are lions more man or zone?
 
Also Kyler mobility isn’t the same as what I expect or want to see from AR, I would expect a lot of zone read with Taylor or designed runs where Kyler scrambling is much more organic and he generally still looking to pass when possible.
 
Normally I’d say no chance kc covers dd, the books henchman can win games and not cover far smaller spreads than this but coming off 1st loss and panthers being a team that could easily get shut down by kc d and think it possible kc offense comes with one their better efforts and god forbid might actually cover! I damn sure ain’t trying to lay it but if you made me pick one or other I guess I would.
 
TNF feels like a 13-10 type game with that shitty weather. Shit, Cleveland has only topped 20 pts once this entire season and most of those games have been in domes or good weather vs lesser defenses. Curious to see Cleveland’s team total…prob around 17 and have to lean under there.
 
C-MAN said:
TNF feels like a 13-10 type game with that shitty weather. Shit, Cleveland has only topped 20 pts once this entire season and most of those games have been in domes or good weather vs lesser defenses. Curious to see Cleveland’s team total…prob around 17 and have to lean under there.
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I've got under 17 -130, and I agree with your lean.
 
current leans

Bucs-6 Inner turmoil with NYG and they go right to the #3 qb. Can't forsee a good team effort with NYG I think the players hate the management. Bucky gonna run wild I think his yards props over worth a look

KC/Panthers o43- number way too low. Not a fan of laying DD road chalk but KC has 31+ pt potential here maybe tt o26.5 the way to go.....

Vikings-3.5- Bears have to be deflated after lw. Vikings superior even if Darnold is a little banged up.

Commanders-10.5 & tt o27.5 all aboard the fade train. Everyone is running up the score on the Boys wash will be no exception.

Raiders+6- Broncos getting too much respect here.

49ers- I think this is the get right game for SF. tt o23.5 looks like a banger as well.


Lean Rams & Chargers. Told myself I'm not fading Eagles but here I amthinking about fading the Eagles....
 
KJ said:
Everything I've seen says wind in the 30mph range tomorrow night in Cleveland, kinda not good for Russ's lofty deep ball
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This an awful fucking game, killing me cause I like so much sat and Sunday but waiting is not one my strongest virtues! (Of the few I have, lol). There ain’t a good bet here far as I can tell. It a terrible spot for Steelers, they have proven to be terrible in this spot and it even worse this time cause they just played ravens Sunday. But is betting Browns the answer? I’m not real excited bout laying my money on them after those clowns putting up 400+ yards against a bad saints team yet somehow only scored 14 points, and Winston didn’t even tho any picks in that game! wtf the odds he does that 2 weeks in a row? Maybe that the best play here, havnt looked at odds but Winston to throw a pick might not be bad.
 
2daBank said:
This an awful fucking game, killing me cause I like so much sat and Sunday but waiting is not one my strongest virtues! (Of the few I have, lol). There ain’t a good bet here far as I can tell. It a terrible spot for Steelers, they have proven to be terrible in this spot and it even worse this time cause they just played ravens Sunday. But is betting Browns the answer? I’m not real excited bout laying my money on them after those clowns putting up 400+ yards against a bad saints team yet somehow only scored 14 points, and Winston didn’t even tho any picks in that game! wtf the odds he does that 2 weeks in a row? Maybe that the best play here, havnt looked at odds but Winston to throw a pick might not be bad.
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Only thing I remotely lean to is unders, if the weather is as bad as it seems I can't see either team throwing the ball much. Bunch of Harris and Chubb, ball control should be key and I've seen Warren fumble a couple times recently, rather have Najee shorten the game for PIT and Chubb should see a bunch of carries for CLE. Until I see the weather for sure I can't even get excited about TE props. Not just windy but have also seen rain/slush in the forecast. No good can come from that.
 
Lexington 125 said:
current leans

Bucs-6 Inner turmoil with NYG and they go right to the #3 qb. Can't forsee a good team effort with NYG I think the players hate the management. Bucky gonna run wild I think his yards props over worth a look

KC/Panthers o43- number way too low. Not a fan of laying DD road chalk but KC has 31+ pt potential here maybe tt o26.5 the way to go.....

Vikings-3.5- Bears have to be deflated after lw. Vikings superior even if Darnold is a little banged up.

Commanders-10.5 & tt o27.5 all aboard the fade train. Everyone is running up the score on the Boys wash will be no exception.

Raiders+6- Broncos getting too much respect here.

49ers- I think this is the get right game for SF. tt o23.5 looks like a banger as well.


Lean Rams & Chargers. Told myself I'm not fading Eagles but here I amthinking about fading the Eagles....
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Agree with the kc side the scoring but think I’d roll with tt as you suggested, I dunno if the d shows up but if they pissed off after a bad week they could easily shut panthers down to 10 or less, or maybe offense tells d to take the week off to a extent and they win 35-20? Not sure I just have a hard time trusting the panthers side to put up points when ya know if kc d wanted to they could pretty much win this game on their own, I agree it will prob be one of kc strongest offensive performances of year.

Love the raiders play.

Lean rams also but kinda scared of Philly and don’t really trust rams yet.

I think I prefer the over on Monday night to a side, I initially leaned chargers but I really don’t wanna be against ravens off a loss. I have no doubt both teams can score points here.

I’m not gonna pretend I ever know what gonna happen in giants games. I just can’t get that team right unless it taking Dak to beat them.

I think the Niners are bout on their last leg, literally, no interest in touching them but I doubt I’d play packers either. Kinda a revenge game for packers and they catching niners all banged up. I think niners run is done as constructed, they need an overhaul. Purdy even banged up now I heard and I don’t really trust him when he not loaded with all pro’s anyways.
 
I feel like I’m higher on Steelers overall than most but I appear way more wary of playing them tonight than most, go figure.
 
(Rotowire) Cleveland head coach Kevin Stefanski said Tuesday that having Chubb play 22 snaps in this past Sunday's 35-14 loss to the Saints was planned with the Browns facing a quick turnaround for Week 12 with a Thursday night matchup with the Steelers, Zac Jackson of The Athletic reports.

Analysis: The snap count against the Saints was the lowest since Chubb made his season debut Week 7, and his 11 carries matched a season-low total. The running back had his best showing from an efficiency standpoint this past week, averaging 4.5 yards per carry after posting a 2.7 YPC mark in his first three games back from injury. With a high chance of either rain or snow for Thursday's game, the Browns could rely more heavily on Chubb coming off his light workload in Week 11.
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Lexington 125 said:
current leans

Bucs-6 Inner turmoil with NYG and they go right to the #3 qb. Can't forsee a good team effort with NYG I think the players hate the management. Bucky gonna run wild I think his yards props over worth a look

KC/Panthers o43- number way too low. Not a fan of laying DD road chalk but KC has 31+ pt potential here maybe tt o26.5 the way to go.....

Vikings-3.5- Bears have to be deflated after lw. Vikings superior even if Darnold is a little banged up.

Commanders-10.5 & tt o27.5 all aboard the fade train. Everyone is running up the score on the Boys wash will be no exception.

Raiders+6- Broncos getting too much respect here.

49ers- I think this is the get right game for SF. tt o23.5 looks like a banger as well.


Lean Rams & Chargers. Told myself I'm not fading Eagles but here I amthinking about fading the Eagles....
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Agree except the Niners. Last Sunday It somehow figured out a way to give away that game, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. After beating Tampa on the road at the gun, and with McCaffrey on game 2 and seemingly shaken off any rust, I couldn't see them losing to Seattle. Maybe not covering, but not losing. Yet, Niners did some really dumb things down the stretch to get the loss. I just wonder if something is amiss with that team this season.
 
during that time they also played sixteen road games less than 48° (avg temp 38) and went 4-12 su

playing in the cold and at home something is helping them
 
austinhous said:
during that time they also played sixteen road games less than 48° (avg temp 38) and went 4-12 su

playing in the cold and at home something is helping them
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Well I think some of it is sometimes the get warm weather teams coming there which obviously makes it a huge advantage. 2nd w them being right on the lake the cold there is just different thrown in with usually nasty wind and some precip, not a fun place to play on night like this. This is such an awful spot for Steelers there no chance I would bet them and I’m super high on Pitt for the season, I just don’t like them tonight at all. Just not sure I have the guts to play the Browns, lol.

Was considering some rushing props, I was looking more at Harris and Warren but that thing bout Chubb being rested is interesting, he just running vs a much tougher run d. His number is very gettable tho!
 
Everything screams browns other than the fact they suck! I still don’t know how they only scored 14 when they passed at will in New Orleans last week. Winston arm is def an edge over Russ arm if the wind whipping but what the odds Winston has 2 clean weeks without a pick? Pretty low I imagine
 
what opened my eyes was the rlm on the moneyline that's what made me even look into it
i think i solved my curiosity but whether or not it's gonna be true tonight who knows. i can definitely see the "thursday games suck" tickets being ripped up later
 
austinhous said:
2-6 thursday/division overall
0-5 L5
0-5 away

last two were both away browns +4 and browns +3 in 2019 and '22
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I just took them in pick club, still trying to muster the balls to bet them but I know browns the right play,, everything I like bout Steelers offense this year is gonna pretty much be negated by the weather, huge disadvantage they played ravens on Sunday which was a very physical game as always, although ravens did them a huge favor only runnninv Henry 13x (why do ravens always seem to lose their identity in certain games?), Winston has a cannon so I think he way more likely to be able to handle the weather but not sure I want him throwing a lot if im gonna take browns cause he could have a 3 int game at any moment! The Chubb stuff you posted really tilted me over the edge, he was resting while Steelers were playing ravens! He has to be good for browns to win so if I do bet Browns it only makes sense to put his over 52.5 rushing and maybe a td or is that to greedy? lol
 
i was like how am i gonna play this moneyline fave parlay ovbviously but then i was like nah they ain't gettin me this time
 
I've been betting chub 2+ TD the last two weeks so this will be the week i don't and he does

and i 100% agree with you 3 days rest after Ravens is not ideal. used to be the same for old nfc west matchups on thursday
 
Browns d also very good against running backs out of backfield, thanks to weather assuming they won’t have to put safeties over the top like most teams generally will vs pitt (as ravens did) to open up the short passes to Warren and Harris.
 
plus steelers play them in pittsburgh in 2 weeks i could see them being like "lets just go 1-1 against these fools" this schedule is dog shit

their schedule is five division games coming up with a Philly game and Chiefs game sprinkled in on 3 days rest

their season-long win total was 8.5 and is sitting at 11.5 right now
 
austinhous said:
i was like how am i gonna play this moneyline fave parlay ovbviously but then i was like nah they ain't gettin me this time
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It’s tough cause I’m higher on Steelers than just bout anyone but I know this ain’t the time. Losing this game isn’t gonna change how deep they go in playoffs anyways.
 
anyway man i think we nailed why the line is the way it is and why browns might be the play it all could go to shit it's the f'n browns after all like u said
 
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