Week 12 Discussion Thread

austinhous said:
plus steelers play them in pittsburgh in 2 weeks i could see them being like "lets just go 1-1 against these fools" this schedule is dog shit

their schedule is five division games coming up with a Philly game and Chiefs game sprinkled in on 3 days rest

their season-long win total was 8.5 and is sitting at 11.5 right now
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Bro I’m blaming you if I lose this game!! Lmao. I’m not fucjing with 2 tds for Chubb, debating 1, but I def think Chubb ov 52.5 is a must to put with browns, if he doesn’t run for that I can’t see them winning: he has actually had some really strong games vs Steelers who d hasn’t really changed much the last 3 years.
 
austinhous said:
i been about the steelers all year
tomlin is the man
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The only time I wasn’t i lost my ass the game he switched to Russ, I should have known he knew what he was doing, it required betting on the dog shit jets too, I really regret that one! Lol. I think this spot really calls for a play against them, I don’t have the guts for the ml, I rather get the plus money by putting browns to +4 and adding Chubb prop.
 
I’m looking at

Cle +3.5
Chubb ov 52.5 rush
Chubb td
Njoku ov 42.5 rec

That’s a healthy +672., too greedy to throw the under in? lol
 
C-MAN said:
TNF feels like a 13-10 type game with that shitty weather. Shit, Cleveland has only topped 20 pts once this entire season and most of those games have been in domes or good weather vs lesser defenses. Curious to see Cleveland’s team total…prob around 17 and have to lean under there.
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Probably.
Before thinking of weather I liked an over, of course.

No way now
 
cant bet yet
im being patient actually waiting see live field conditions to see the sideline reporters nips both nips need to be up and hot breath u need to be able to see breath and if a snowflake lands on either nip its +1000
 
Took the under. If I lose, so be it but weather, defenses, Thur night, etc. I would just be shocked if this game was a shootout or if both teams went up and down the field easily. I’m much more expecting a low scoring grind it out type game. I’m a Steelers homer but no way I touch them in this spot. Would be Cleveland or nothing if I had to pick a side (luckily, I don’t have to pick a side!).
 
I can tell you the weather is pretty shitty in Pittsburgh right now …dark cold wet with some flurries. It’s prob pretty much the same in Cleveland. I don’t think it’s going to be super windy, but there could be a little more wind there coming off the lake.
 
austinhous said:
pretty sure this whole thread is gonna make me look really, really bad later
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You and me both bro, I’m in the “what we learn” thread every week saying I think Steelers can win the afc and I’m in here talking bout betting the fucking browns vs then, lol. That the fucking nfl tho, ya gotta have brass balls to make some these plays, sometimes it works sometimes you coming out looking fucking retarded while everyone else loving watching Steelers roll these losers! Fuck it, I’m gonna bet the colts and raiders on Sunday might as well jump this shit show off early!
 
C-MAN said:
Took the under. If I lose, so be it but weather, defenses, Thur night, etc. I would just be shocked if this game was a shootout or if both teams went up and down the field easily. I’m much more expecting a low scoring grind it out type game. I’m a Steelers homer but no way I touch them in this spot. Would be Cleveland or nothing if I had to pick a side (luckily, I don’t have to pick a side!).
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I’m def putting the under in with the rest.
 
I’d prefer more wind but fuck, they have Russ passing yard prop set well below 200, either they know something or I’m just a fucking moron not taking the free Steelers money with rest the world. I just hope this a bang it out 17-14, 20-17 type game where that hook actually pays off. I prob woulda felt better if I bought a point to 4.5 but I didn’t. My bed made I rolled with browns+3.5, I did buy a point up on the under cause 36.5 scares me as 20-17 feels like a very likely score if game goes how I hope, so un 37.5, Chubb ov 54.5 rush (that jumped 2 yards b4 I got to it), Chubb td +155, Njoku ov 42.5 and I did play him ti score at like +350 I think, Tillman ov 42.5 rec. mixed and matched those in a few sgp’s cause I’m a idiot!
 
Jameis 41,46,46 attempts in his three starts
lined 32.5 tonight thought that was kinda cool

also last thirteen steelers browns games (since 2018) Browns have outscored them 71-17 in the 1Q with eleven shutouts

neither one of those are actionable to me just interesting to know
 
idk man...looking around it seems like every big name capper, every "smart" capper is on Cleveland. So sharp it's dull maybe? Kind of has the feeling of those where before the game i feel smart taking the home dog with a super shitty record because taking the small road fave with the awesome record is just tooooo easy.. and then by halftime i'm like "why the fuck did i ever lay money on a shitty ass team??"
 
another factor to consider, these small spreads in NFL games, i think a large majority of the team the ATS winner is also the SU winner. meaning, points don't come into play often. dont get me wrong, they DO come into play, but not often, so it's like if you take that into account and side with the percentages, a legit question to ask would be "does cleveland win straight up?"
 
austinhous said:
I've been betting chub 2+ TD the last two weeks so this will be the week i don't and he does

and i 100% agree with you 3 days rest after Ravens is not ideal. used to be the same for old nfc west matchups on thursday
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I hope you did
 
CPA-hole said:
Cowboys sign him and he sticks the drumstick right up the Giants ass on Thanksgiving?
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Do cowboys want to win that game or play for the 1st pick? Its a damn shame Dak hurt cause him beating giants about the only time on the entire year I get a giants game correct, that team been impossible for me to cap for years.
 
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