Week 12 Discussion Thread

Overs....Texas TT and passing yards.

I closely watched Ole Miss in Fayetteville two weeks ago. Posted then and made a mental note that Arkansas secondary was abysmal. Just terrible. Ole Miss has really good WRs that weren't in the same zip code that day with a group from Arkansas that was lost. Those WRs aren't close to the receivers Texas has.

Unless someone can tell me that Arkansas is getting a lot of secondary players back Sarkisian will destroy that back end.
 
I’m considering UVA +22.5 (waiting to potentially get more points).

Rationale is that ND is likely playoff bound and we’re late enough in the season where they’re likely just trying to secure a win. They also have an undefeated Army team on deck. Meanwhile, the Cavs have some mojo, coming off a road win at Pitt and are sitting at 5 wins, on the cusp of bowl eligibility. I’d expect them to play inspired.

Getting this many points either could be a winning ticket from a straight up close-ish game but the backdoor could easily open late in the game as well.
 
Seems like a tough spot for Utah. Off the Holy War, which their AD said was stolen from them. Seemed like their last stand game. Now isn't probably the best time to go face Coach Prime.

I want no part of laying 4 with the Beave. AF has actually showed a pulse the last 2 weeks. While the Beave has lost 4 in a row, 3 of them to the MW cast-off schools.

Big motivation edge to AF here.
 
CPA-hole said:
Seems like a tough spot for Utah. Off the Holy War, which their AD said was stolen from them. Seemed like their last stand game. Now isn't probably the best time to go face Coach Prime.
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Yeah, Utah laid it on the line Saturday night and got a big gut punch. They're going to struggle with CU's perimeter speed. Most teams have this season.
 
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Looks like books are respecting Kansas again this week with another fishy line. I mentioned them last week against a 7-1 team as a short dog and same thing this week against undefeated BYU at +3 on the road. In this spot teams should be at least +10 at minimum.
 
Kennesaw State fired their HC, the only HC they have ever had. School press release says he stepped down, coach says he didn't quit and didn't resign so he was fired and the athletic department is lying about it.

Don't know anything about their football team this year, I see their ATS record (4-5) is better than their SU record (1-8). Quite a bit of controversy on the firing, their program and why or if they should've moved to FBS right now. Could be a distracted bunch of players this week.
 
s--k said:
Kennesaw State fired their HC, the only HC they have ever had. School press release says he stepped down, coach says he didn't quit and didn't resign so he was fired and the athletic department is lying about it.

Don't know anything about their football team this year, I see their ATS record (4-5) is better than their SU record (1-8). Quite a bit of controversy on the firing, their program and why or if they should've moved to FBS right now. Could be a distracted bunch of players this week.
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...or a bunch of pissed off players
 
Frank Costanza said:
Overs....Texas TT and passing yards.

I closely watched Ole Miss in Fayetteville two weeks ago. Posted then and made a mental note that Arkansas secondary was abysmal. Just terrible. Ole Miss has really good WRs that weren't in the same zip code that day with a group from Arkansas that was lost. Those WRs aren't close to the receivers Texas has.

Unless someone can tell me that Arkansas is getting a lot of secondary players back Sarkisian will destroy that back end.
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Great point.

TAMU game still a few weeks away, so no lookahead either.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Looks like books are respecting Kansas again this week with another fishy line. I mentioned them last week against a 7-1 team as a short dog and same thing this week against undefeated BYU at +3 on the road. In this spot teams should be at least +10 at minimum.
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Yeah, I did a double take again.

Makes no sense, so I'll stay far, far away!
 
longshotsws said:
I’m considering UVA +22.5 (waiting to potentially get more points).

Rationale is that ND is likely playoff bound and we’re late enough in the season where they’re likely just trying to secure a win. They also have an undefeated Army team on deck. Meanwhile, the Cavs have some mojo, coming off a road win at Pitt and are sitting at 5 wins, on the cusp of bowl eligibility. I’d expect them to play inspired.

Getting this many points either could be a winning ticket from a straight up close-ish game but the backdoor could easily open late in the game as well.
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Good cap
 
Loves2kickass said:
That line would suggest Kansas like last week, no?
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You would think.

Now, we have a few things colliding here...

BYU off a wild comeback in their biggest rivalry. Tough to get back up for the next week.

Meanwhile, Kansas has lost so many close games, but took out a lot of that frustration last week?

Building block for Kansas? Or, revert to previous form? Come out flat!?
 
Over its last 3 Kansas is playing good football. Essentially the same team we expected to see back in August. Routed Houston, then sans a Daniels fumble when he was trying to salt the game away with a couple minutes left, Kansas wins in Manhattan. Then it takes care of Iowa State.

BYU just dodged a bullet and you wonder if it catches up to them with a hot team coming in. I'd take the 3 at this point.
 
Frank Costanza said:
Over its last 3 Kansas is playing good football. Essentially the same team we expected to see back in August. Routed Houston, then sans a Daniels fumble when he was trying to salt the game away with a couple minutes left, Kansas wins in Manhattan. Then it takes care of Iowa State.

BYU just dodged a bullet and you wonder if it catches up to them with a hot team coming in. I'd take the 3 at this point.
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Yeah, as we discussed earlier this line seems weird -- the kind of game not to overthink.

As a proud owner of a Jayhawks O8 RSW ticket, I have followed them more than most. Disappointing. Last week was the culmination of several weeks of frustration building up in hindsight.

What we thinking @Teapot9 ??
 
Loves2kickass said:
Looks like books are respecting Kansas again this week with another fishy line. I mentioned them last week against a 7-1 team as a short dog and same thing this week against undefeated BYU at +3 on the road. In this spot teams should be at least +10 at minimum.
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I think BYU blows them out. ISU and BYU way different teams
 
B.A.R. said:
Talk TULANE @twinkie13
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Y’all have heard me bang the Sumrall drum all year. Navy and Tulane have played 5 common opponents and Tulane has smashed em. Navy has been good this year, I think getting this game OTR gives us a line we can win. Wish I grabbed -6.5 earlier, maybe it comes back down but someone sharper than me please tell me.

I expect laser focus from this team with what’s on the line in the AAC and possibly beyond.
 
twinkie13 said:
Y’all have heard me bang the Sumrall drum all year. Navy and Tulane have played 5 common opponents and Tulane has smashed em. Navy has been good this year, I think getting this game OTR gives us a line we can win. Wish I grabbed -6.5 earlier, maybe it comes back down but someone sharper than me please tell me.

I expect laser focus from this team with what’s on the line in the AAC and possibly beyond.
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LFG
 
Ewers O 288 passing yards. As noted above, in its last outing the Pig secondary gave up 3 TD passes of >60 yards to Ole Miss and, generally, looked clueless.

Ewers has more weapons and with Bond being back, even more so. Clean weather and track in Fayettevile tomorrow.
 
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Frank Costanza said:
Ewers O 288 passing yards. As noted above, in its last outing the Pig secondary gave up 3 TD passes of >60 yards to Ole Miss and, generally, looked clueless.

Ewers has more weapons and with Bond being back, even more so. Clean weather and track in Fayettevile tomorrow.
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Always like these types of bets BUT blowout factor is an issue.

Possibly only one full half of the offense and 3 quarters of Ewers.

Definitely would still lean your way though.
 
B.A.R. said:
Always like these types of bets BUT blowout factor is an issue.

Possibly only one full half of the offense and 3 quarters of Ewers.

Definitely would still lean your way though.
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Fair point but I don't think the game gets away from Piggy. Hope I'm wrong at the end of the day.
 
Loves2kickass said:
Looks like books are respecting Kansas again this week with another fishy line. I mentioned them last week against a 7-1 team as a short dog and same thing this week against undefeated BYU at +3 on the road. In this spot teams should be at least +10 at minimum.
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Wrote bout them in the dog thread. This 1st time I’m considering taking a shot against byu. But kinda like last week where I liked ku the safer play might be ov 56.5, pretty confident both teams hit 30. Ku could easily be in contention for the big12, between Daniels poor start and for some reason they sat on leads in practically every game they had leads in the 4th till they blew the game. Don’t laugh but imo ku as talented as anyone in big12.. anyways you can read the rest in the dog thread but this the week I think I’m ready to jump against byu. My only concern is byu finds ways to win while ku has last 4-5 games they were the better team. Thst obviously a concern! Don’t think byu can stop this ku offense tho
 
twinkie13 said:
Y’all have heard me bang the Sumrall drum all year. Navy and Tulane have played 5 common opponents and Tulane has smashed em. Navy has been good this year, I think getting this game OTR gives us a line we can win. Wish I grabbed -6.5 earlier, maybe it comes back down but someone sharper than me please tell me.

I expect laser focus from this team with what’s on the line in the AAC and possibly beyond.
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Sumrall's 10-0 ATS as a road favorite.
 
How the hell is Cal laying freaking 10 to cuse? I’m not really convinced they even better than them! As long as McCord doesn’t throw a bunch of picks I just don’t see this being more than a 1 score game. This is the 1st time cuse has went out west and played an early game, unlv on a Friday night was only other time they been west at all. I dunno if that makes it worth cal laying 10 tho? Cuse is gonna be able to move the ball thru the air on these guys and they protect McCord really well so I don’t see cal getting to him a lot, I’m sure he will throw at least one awful pick but I don’t think that gonna be enough to make this a 2 score game. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
 
I’ve been sayin Cal pretty good for a while now. 10 pts a lot but I have no interest in going against them.
 
B.A.R. said:
Why?
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I feel like the Bills have a definite edge in that game. They seem to have KC's number every single time they play, except KC magically wins if the game happens to be in January lol. Plus this one is in Buffalo, but I'd like them even if it were at Arrowhead.
 
C-MAN said:
I’ve been sayin Cal pretty good for a while now. 10 pts a lot but I have no interest in going against them.
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I think you could make a case for the over but man I just don’t think they better than cuse. Neither great, I think they pretty similar, ratings wise I’d think they not more than 10ish apart. Cal d has its moments but it usually stopping the run and getting to the qb, cuse run game is hit and miss but they more than used to playing without it working well and they pass block really well. McCord def makes a few god awful throws a game, I still can’t believe they beat unlv cause that game tying drive he hit Rebs defenders square in the hands 3x and they just dropped them. If he has one of those days then sure I could see it, but outside the 5 against Pitt he actually been better about it lately. I think both teams will move ball thru the air so 57 might not be enough.
 
2daBank said:
How the hell is Cal laying freaking 10 to cuse? I’m not really convinced they even better than them! As long as McCord doesn’t throw a bunch of picks I just don’t see this being more than a 1 score game. This is the 1st time cuse has went out west and played an early game, unlv on a Friday night was only other time they been west at all. I dunno if that makes it worth cal laying 10 tho? Cuse is gonna be able to move the ball thru the air on these guys and they protect McCord really well so I don’t see cal getting to him a lot, I’m sure he will throw at least one awful pick but I don’t think that gonna be enough to make this a 2 score game. Doesn’t make much sense to me.
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Cant back McCord
 
Marsski said:
Cant back McCord
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lol. I get it. He usually pretty good but 4-5x a game he goes color blind or retarded and forgets which jersey he throwing to! Think today it comes down to whether cal gets pressure or not? Cuse generally does pretty well pass blocking but we saw what happened when Pitt got after him. Outside that game he hasn’t thrown as many lately but I have no clue if the defense simply dropped them or he been better bout not making the horrible throw? 10 still feels redic to me even if I give him 2 ints cause I think they will move the ball. Im def just as good playing the over tho. I don’t think either passing game gonna have much problem moving the ball. Bout to check out some props for that game also.
 
2daBank said:
Few early props

Tex te helm ov 46.5 rec

Tulsa wr Williams ov 53.5
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If you look at what arky has done against tight ends you would think their lacking an understanding that he an eligible wr, dudes have just went off on them. Helm gets enough work think he outta go for 50+

Williams a transfer from usc looks different getting off the bus, can anyone on navy really check a guy that will prob get a chance to play in the nfl?
 
I think they kinda crazy on the jeanty rushing number tonight, 189.5? Is he capable of hitting that, yes sure he has went for 2bills several times but on far worse rush defenses imo. Lately teams been holding him much lower, unlv and sdst both held him under 5 ypc and less than 150. I think that more likely to be his ceiling here, think Boise gonna have to throw effectively to open up anything for him tonight as I just can’t picture sjst letting him run all over them at will. Last year he went for 167 in this game, so could he do it? Again sure he could go off but I just don’t think it real likely they allow him to go for 190+ in this game.
 
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