Week 12 B16 Thread...

B.A.R.

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Alright, having some laptop issues tonight so quick mobile post...

Last week...


Ohio State did what they should do to a putrid Indiana pass defense. They scored 28 in each half. Once again, Stroud was out there passing in the 4th quarter. Mind-blowing. Good win and they have a scrimmage coming up before The Game...

Michigan with another boring, dominant win. They just pound you into submission. A few small injuries to shore up here the next week or so. This game they intended to only play Blake for 15 running attempts or so. Unfortunately, Don banged up his hand and they had to rely on Blake. Stokes was excellent in relief. He needed that game, he had been somewhat shelved since s fumble a few months ago. He's going to be a very solid one.

Michigan State with a weird game. I felt like they were flipping it on to a blowout but Rutgers plays hard all game long. Either way, with the win at Illinois this team is very bowl eligible unless someone weird happens with IU this week. The fans likely get a home game at Ford Field day after Christmas.

The Maryland swoon is in fell effect. Simply no offense here at all. Big credit to Penn State having gotten off the floor after the beat down at Michigan. This team easily could have beat OSU as well until things got wild. Solid wins since then.

Purdue continues their weird season with a heckuva win at Illinois. Honestly, after the Illini blew the MSU game at home, I figured this was not the best time for the Boilers to be coming to town. Wrong. They won it.

Minnesota did to Northwestern exactly what we thought they would. This was a pure Mo Ibrahim game here. The Cats had 4 different guys throw passes fwiw.

Iowa is scoring points now and beat the Badgers by two tuddy's at home. Now, they only had 146 yards. They benefited from a pick 6. Basically, this is Iowa football.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Onto the 2nd to last week in conference play...


Iowa heads up to Minnesota in a trophy game. Line indicates two even teams which seems fair enough. Minnesota needs to be able to pass here a bit. This will not be art, what so. Early lean to taking the points...

Penn State heads to Rutgers. On paper, this is a layup. With that being said, we know Shiano has them overachieving. I do wonder if all their buildup the last few weeks sets up a letdown here? A spread near 20 is quite healthy. No leans here.

Ohio State ends their road schedule in College Park. This game tends to get chippy due to some recruiting rivalries. I can't see much fight coming from the Terps with how these last few weeks have went. Check the weather obviously. Once again, and this is good for props, expect Stroud throwing in the 4th even up 28 plus points. Team totals will be looked at here weather dependant.

Michigan State ends their home slate with a visit from the Hoosiers. Now, this series has produced some wild games over the last handful of years. I don't think we're in for that this time. Indiana is really bad. Sparty playing for a bowl game here, as they finish in Happy Valley. Extra motivation, and a 3 game winning streak helps take a lot of the stink off this season. Might be a sneaky TT here, although MSU hasn't been able to sustain multiple scoring drives in a row this year.

Wisconsin heads to Lincoln. I hear Thompson is a maybe this week? That will help but this feels a lot like the contests recently versus Illinois and Minnesota for the Huskers. Simply pride on the line here for NU. Obviously Wisconsin still in the race in the wild west.

Senior Day in Ann Arbor as Bert and the boys head to town. I absolutely hate that Illinois has lost these last two games coming in. This feels like a wounded Tiger situation. I'm guessing Brown plays, whether he is 100% or not. Last Saturday I thought he was done for the year. He's a heck of a back. I expect this to be a very physical contest that could stay a bit closer for comfort at times. The line is 18. Give me a healthy Brown and give me points here. This has the feel of 27-17 or 31-16 kind of game. We'll see. I'll give a better predicted once injuries sorted out closer to game time.


>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>


Lastly, the West is WILD. I believe Northwestern is the only team eliminated. Most likely, the final winner is just sacrifice for UM/OSU winner, but another game is another game. Tough cap right now to figure this out. Quick prediction -- Iowa again.
 
Nebraska has to be eliminated? I can't see how a 4-5 team could win the division even if they win their next two and Iowa and Wisconsin lose their next two...Nebraska would need 1st - 6th division to be 4-5 or worse and that is not mathematically possible.
 
Nebraska has to be eliminated? I can't see how a 4-5 team could win the division even if they win their next two and Iowa and Wisconsin lose their next two...Nebraska would need 1st - 6th division to be 4-5 or worse and that is not mathematically possible.
Likely they are. I was taking my info from a scenarios thread from over the weekend at a recruiting site.
 
So, I don't watch every play and am often very distracted football watcher on Saturdays. But something doesn't seem right with Michigan, like, they should be better. Why don't they score more points? 17 pts each half vs Nebraska I guess is ok. 14 pts in the 1H vs Rutgers, 13 pts 1H vs MSU, 16pts 2H vs MSU. They are about mid-pack in the B1G in TD % in the RZ. McCarthy below 50% pass completions the last 2 weeks. Is there any cause for concern?
 
their pass game looks to be a concern to me. they clearly were trying to work on it, esp in the 1H last week, and it didn't really go that well.
 
So, I don't watch every play and am often very distracted football watcher on Saturdays. But something doesn't seem right with Michigan, like, they should be better. Why don't they score more points? 17 pts each half vs Nebraska I guess is ok. 14 pts in the 1H vs Rutgers, 13 pts 1H vs MSU, 16pts 2H vs MSU. They are about mid-pack in the B1G in TD % in the RZ. McCarthy below 50% pass completions the last 2 weeks. Is there any cause for concern?
I'll get into their downfield passing game more next week...

They control games. Time of possession usually lopsided. .
Just the JH style.
 
their pass game looks to be a concern to me. they clearly were trying to work on it, esp in the 1H last week, and it didn't really go that well.
Jim needs to find the Mike Hart equivalent as far as a WR coach goes.

The talent is there. The results are not.

That's the one part holding them back from being absolutely dominant every game.

I'll go in detail more within the week. That's my short explanation for now.

(Terrible route trees for example)
 
The story is that supposedly Locksley/Maryland were the ones who snitched on Chase Young which caused his multi game suspension in 2019.

In the their last two games osu has won 73-14 and 66-17.

Those scores were not an accident.

Will Day's blood thirst for Maryland be tempered given what's on deck for osu the following week? I wish I knew! But something to be mindful of for sure.
 
Penn State heads to Rutgers. On paper, this is a layup. With that being said, we know Shiano has them overachieving. I do wonder if all their buildup the last few weeks sets up a letdown here? A spread near 20 is quite healthy. No leans here.
I'm too lazy to look it up but I feel like Franklin has done a really good job ATS in these late season games against inferior competition. Like you said they could just as easily fold it up but instead come out looking to put one on their overmatched opponents.
 
The story is that supposedly Locksley/Maryland were the ones who snitched on Chase Young which caused his multi game suspension in 2019.

In the their last two games osu has won 73-14 and 66-17.

Those scores were not an accident.

Will Day's blood thirst for Maryland be tempered given what's on deck for osu the following week? I wish I knew! But something to be mindful of for sure.
Locksley is such a turd.
 
I'm too lazy to look it up but I feel like Franklin has done a really good job ATS in these late season games against inferior competition. Like you said they could just as easily fold it up but instead come out looking to put one on their overmatched opponents.

Related to Rutgers specifically, Penn State's biggest advantage has been their defense and also Rutger's typical poor offense.

2021 28-0 -17.5 (was 7-0 HT) - Penn St outgained them 407-160
2020 23-7 -11.5 (was 17-0 HT) - Penn St outgained them 381-205
2019 27-6 -40 (was 7-3 HT) - Rutgers outgained them 383-333
2018 20-7 -28 (13-0 HT) Penn St outgained them 322-234
2017 35-6 -31 (14-6 HT) Penn St outgained them 304-200
 
B1G West is hilarious.....this is the best breakdown i've seen (credit to mgoblog.com)

Scenarios to get to B1G Championship Game:

Purdue:

  • Win against both Northwestern and Indiana
    • Iowa loses to Minnesota or Nebraska
  • Lose to one of Northwestern or Indiana
    • Iowa loses to both Minnesota and Nebraska
    • Minnesota loses to Wisconsin
    • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern
Illinois:

  • Win against both Michigan and Northwestern
    • Purdue loses to either Northwestern or Indiana
  • Loss to one of Michigan or Northwestern
    • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana
    • Iowa loses to either Minnesota or Nebraska
Iowa:

  • Win both remaining games
    • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern
  • Win against Minnesota, Loss to Nebraska:
    • Illinois loses both games
    • Purdue loses a game
Minnesota:

  • Win against both Iowa and Wisconsin
    • Illinois loses to Michigan or Northwestern
    • Purdue loses to Indiana or Northwestern
  • Win against Iowa, loss to Wisconsin:
    • Wisconsin loses to Nebraska
    • Illinois loses to both Michigan and Northwestern
    • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana
Wisconsin:

  • Win against both Nebraska and Minnesota
    • Iowa loses to Nebraska
    • Illinois loses to both Michigan and Northwestern
    • Purdue loses to both Northwestern and Indiana
No team controls their own destiny

The snake is eating its tail, and oh is it tasty. Because of tiebreakers being dealt out evenly, no team can win out and go to Indy without help, which is incredibly hilarious.
 
Windy and cold AF in Mpls today. 18 degrees right now and winds are howling. I'd guess the wind chill is in the single digits. This will be all running today.

Field is heated so no concerns about footing, but passing and kicking games will be impacted for sure.
 
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