Week 11 Thoughts

E.T.G.

One of trus baby mommas
Going back to the dirty dirty this weekend so I will have to get my work done early on this card. Last week pretty much sucked with BC Lions only winning by 1 point, not sure how the fuck that happened with Calgary's 2nd and 3rd team taking the field. Onto Week 11 it is. This week is the DEGERNATE Special. Leans as of now and I am about as good of a fade as there is

Tuesday Night:

When you get shutout on offense by EMU, you just have to shake your head. Yes, WMU is off a bye week but their QB has a tendencity to turn it over and CMU is playing some good ball right now outside of the Clemson game. Laying chalk in the MAC is dangerous but laying road chalk in the MAC is suicide. I will take CM-3 here

Wednesday Night:

I just can't do this one

Thursday Night:

Only have interest in the TCU/BYU game and I need to really look that one over. I know JPicks and a few others like TCU here and that wasn't my initial lean.

Friday Night:

They are begging me to take Road Chalk again in the MAC, not sure if my heart can stomach this twice in 1 week.

Saturday:

Indiana -1.5, ML (58?): They just got bowl elgible but I don't think they are content yet. This is certainly a winnable game here and I like the Lewis-Hardy connection. Also will give a strong look to the over here, both teams have issues on defense.

Arky/Tenn Over (61?): Lets see here, Tenn can't stop a run game and Arky can't stop a passing game. Seeing both teams hit the 30's is not a stretch of the imagination by any means. I like Arky SU in this game as well, just think they are too physical up front for the Tenn defense.

ND -2.5, ML: They can't lose to Navy and AFA in a row can they? ND will burn down if it happens.

Cinci -5.5: I want a tab bit lower line. UConn has done much better on the yr than I thought they would but I still don't believe they are a top 15 team in the country. Win this game and I will believe it.

Utah -13.5: I am always willing to give this team a long look with BJ at QB, I really like them, what can I say.

ECU -7: Played them last week on the road and might have to do it again. This team is playing at a higher level than every1 else in the division, including UCF. Marshall is miserable and might of already threw in the towel on the yr.

UF -6.5, Over (61?): A play on UF would depend on the full health of Tebow. He has to be able to run the ball for me to play this game because SC can't stop runnings QB's. I like the over in this game because I think points will be easy to come by here for both teams. SC is playing their 11th straight game and they need a bye week asap.

Kansas -5.5: Its hard for to believe that they are set up where they are this yr but it won't be hard for me to fade a skitzo bunch like OkSt who just blew a 21 point lead in the 4th quarter to all but blow their season down the drain. KU is perfect ATS so if I jump on them, they are sure to lose.

SDST/UNLV: There is a right side in this game, I just have not found it yet.

Fresno +17: I know its on the island but what the hell, this line just strikes me as too much. The fresno pass defense is not miserable and they run the ball with success thus keeping UH off the field.
 
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Green, defenitely wait for the line to come down on cincy, don't see value till it does..
 
Green, defenitely wait for the line to come down on cincy, don't see value till it does..

Thanks, congrats on the yr you are having btw, must be fun.



I made a mental error, I thought ND-2.5 was the line when I quickly looked at it. Interesting now that I don't have to lay points with these guys.
 
Central Mich-3 x2
CMU/WMU Under 66.5


Umm, so all of the bets on CMU and the line isn't moving/moved down. Call me a sucker but I can't resist.

Now with the UNDER, the weather is suppose to be dogshit. Second, no way am I taking an OVER with a team who scored a safety on Eastern Michigan, I don't care if they had 6 weeks to prepare.


Fellas, that means parlay WMU/Over if you want to win money:smiley_acbe:
 
ETG - Central Michigan is quite possibly my most confident play this week. LeFevour is a very good QB, who should be able to pick WMU apart. The guy isn't big in stature, but he can beat you with his arm (250 yards passing/game at 67% completion rate, 18 TDs and only 7 INTs) as well as his legs, considering that he leads the team in rushing with 546 yards at 6.1 ypc and 8 rushing TDs on the season.

CMich has lit up every single MAC team they have played so far this season, and I see no reason their hot streak won't continue. Chippewas average margin of victory over MAC opponents this season = 19 points.

Anyhow...GL this week bud, and tonight in particular!

:cheers:
 
ETG - Central Michigan is quite possibly my most confident play this week. LeFevour is a very good QB, who should be able to pick WMU apart. The guy isn't big in stature, but he can beat you with his arm (250 yards passing/game at 67% completion rate, 18 TDs and only 7 INTs) as well as his legs, considering that he leads the team in rushing with 546 yards at 6.1 ypc and 8 rushing TDs on the season.

CMich has lit up every single MAC team they have played so far this season, and I see no reason their hot streak won't continue. Chippewas average margin of victory over MAC opponents this season = 19 points.

Anyhow...GL this week bud, and tonight in particular!

:cheers:

:cheers:

Agree very much.


My problem with feeling so confident with this game is that it is the MAC and thats just that. I limit my money to corruption exposure with this conference. You made some solid points, I was reading some things that indicated WMU might try a frosh at QB? Bring it, please!
 
Under is down to 65 at the Greek in little more than an hour. I guess news about the weather broke, kind of wish I got more down on that number. I won't try for a middle if it keeps dropping to say like 62, I just think this total is very far off from the right number but we'll see
 
I can't believe I am saying this. Two nights in a row, two road chalk plays..... IN THE MAC


I am asking to lose money


Ohio -2.5



For Thursday I like WVU 1st half. I am expecting WVU to come out on fire and light the scoreboard up early and often.
 
Semi-Updated Card:


Central Mich-3 (x2)
CMU/WMU Under 66.5

Ohio -2.5
UF/SC Over 59 (x3)
Houston +1 (x2)
BC -6 (x2)
ECU -7 (x2)
 
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