Week 11 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Getting back in the swing of things.

Not to many Dogs barker in Week 10 but we had a few.

Let’s kick Week 11 off......

YUGE Regular Season Gm, SEC West Gm....

Shoot
 
Well....we have 3 MACtion dogs to look at.

Toledo is down, Kent is a bit better. Question is has Toledo slipped enough and Kent improved enough to matter? It's not a series the Flashes have done well in.

Western Michigan is good, but Ball St is up. Ball St is 3-1 in league with everyone else in division having 2 or more losses. Last year went to OT and BSU won (WM on backup QBs), historically WM pounds them.

Ohio D is bad, Miami Ohio showing signs of life as this season wears on. Miami upset them last year. Rivalry game. This is the official 150th CFB anniversary celebration game.

Oregon State could do it again? Washington is tough, but not historically tough and Eason isn't great. Beaver's D going to be the potential liability. But they are home and hot, won 3 of last 4 PAC 12 games...when is the last time that could be said? The loss in that stretch? Just a 7-52 thumping at the hands of Utah - ouch!

I'll try and look at the Saturday games later.
 
TCU - Better team
Kstate - Better team
Kent St - If not now, when?
USF - Better team
Minnesota - Quality home dog, circled for a while
UTSA - Bad favorite
sbama - bad favorite
Illinois - seems wrong but teams going opposite directions
Ville - great spot for dog
LSU - shootout
UAB - Seems coin flippish
UNT - probably not but high flux game
FIU - inflated line; considerable value
Wyoming - Something wrong with Boise. Bad matchup for Wyoming though
SJSU - Need two of next three for bowl eligibility. Would be a shame if they didn't make it. All winnable, all loseable.
 
Illinois pops out at me but I also think this may be a public dog / bloodletting.....
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Illinois - seems wrong but teams going opposite directions
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The matchups deserve looked over...but you could sum this game up like this I think: Illinois has enthusiasm, optimism and something to play for, a bowl game. Something none on these players have never accomplished that is now within sight, they can achieve it. Compared to Michigan State's disappointment, despair and do they have to play for? A bowl, quite a low standard for them. This quite frankly is the biggest game of the season right now for Illinois, lots of teams say that the next game is the most important. That is true for ILL if they want to make this run they are on count for something. What is Michigan State's biggest game of the season? That is next week at Michigan.
 
I keep waiting for Tulsa to quit. I expected them to maybe quit vs Tulane and then be fired up for this one against UCF ... but they tried hard at Tulane (ML loss and ATS loss). Just hard for this team to get up at this point. They are officially not making a bowl after last weeks loss ... so I guess this is their super bowl for the remainder of the year but I think they just get squashed now that their season is officially a trainwreck.

I guarantee you that they are one of the best 2-7 teams in the nation .. vandy and arkansas would be games. Maybe NW and their 1 win would be tough too. dunno. But they are a good team that caught zero breaks imo.... but how do they possibly get up for this game? shock the world???? Seems unlikely.
 
Regarding Tulsa, taking the intanglibles and motivations aside, the OL has been horrible all year. Sometimes Smith is at fault for the sacks and hurries, most times it is OL, then even when the protection holds Smith is looks flustered at times probably because he is expecting to get blasted any second. Tulsa has allowed 33 sacks, only 5 teams have allowed more. Rushing ypg, attempts and ypc are all down quite a bit with the poor OL as well.

Other than some bad luck, poor coaching and just not being able to finish, the OL is the only glaring weakness I have seen on their team.

Pretty disappointing (I did go over 4.5 on them). And surely they are disappointed as well. So they hit a new low point each week after another loss that they maybe could've won.

As to the specific point of Tulsa winning 6 of 7 vs UCF - totally irrelevant. Tulsa was favored in 5 of those 6 wins and the other win they were only a 1.5 pt dog. The one loss they were a 20.5 pt dog. So that says that Tulsa was the better team in those wins (or in 5 of the 6 wins). Tulsa is not the better team right now, clearly UCF is.

Might be able to make an ATS case on them, might (bad UCF run D?). If you see the upset, you got to follow your gut. If you can make a case I would like to hear it because I need them to win their last 3 anyway!
 
Red Zone scoring is another Tulsa weakness that happens every week.

Vs Tulane, they were in the Red Zone 8x, but only got 2 TDs out of those (and 4 FGs). Tulsa has scored TDs on 50% or less of their RZ trips 5 of their last 6 games. Something has to change there if you think they can beat UCF. When the field compresses, this offense struggles even more.
 
s--k said:
Well....we have 3 MACtion dogs to look at.

Toledo is down, Kent is a bit better. Question is has Toledo slipped enough and Kent improved enough to matter? It's not a series the Flashes have done well in.

Western Michigan is good, but Ball St is up. Ball St is 3-1 in league with everyone else in division having 2 or more losses. Last year went to OT and BSU won (WM on backup QBs), historically WM pounds them.

Ohio D is bad, Miami Ohio showing signs of life as this season wears on. Miami upset them last year. Rivalry game. This is the official 150th CFB anniversary celebration game.

Oregon State could do it again? Washington is tough, but not historically tough and Eason isn't great. Beaver's D going to be the potential liability. But they are home and hot, won 3 of last 4 PAC 12 games...when is the last time that could be said? The loss in that stretch? Just a 7-52 thumping at the hands of Utah - ouch!

I'll try and look at the Saturday games later.
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It was at home as well, for whatever reason whether it just matchup based or what beavers been much better on the road. I thought they outplayed trees at home but couldn’t score in the 1st half before mounting a comeback they lost w last second fg.

I worry Eason will have a field day vs that d. I dunno, I’ve though beavers been undervalued most of conf play but this one gives me pause.
 
s--k said:
Red Zone scoring is another Tulsa weakness that happens every week.

Vs Tulane, they were in the Red Zone 8x, but only got 2 TDs out of those (and 4 FGs). Tulsa has scored TDs on 50% or less of their RZ trips 5 of their last 6 games. Something has to change there if you think they can beat UCF. When the field compresses, this offense struggles even more.
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Believe that was their undoing vs cincy as well. I’m afraid they running out of steam but I played Tulane last week and they had me nervous for most of it so maybe not. I’ll almost for sure be on them with the points, havnt decided if I’m gonna try one last time for the upset. Would really like to see them pull one of these with so many close ones i kinda feel for them! lol
 
s--k said:
Regarding Tulsa, taking the intanglibles and motivations aside, the OL has been horrible all year. Sometimes Smith is at fault for the sacks and hurries, most times it is OL, then even when the protection holds Smith is looks flustered at times probably because he is expecting to get blasted any second. Tulsa has allowed 33 sacks, only 5 teams have allowed more. Rushing ypg, attempts and ypc are all down quite a bit with the poor OL as well.

Other than some bad luck, poor coaching and just not being able to finish, the OL is the only glaring weakness I have seen on their team.

Pretty disappointing (I did go over 4.5 on them). And surely they are disappointed as well. So they hit a new low point each week after another loss that they maybe could've won.

As to the specific point of Tulsa winning 6 of 7 vs UCF - totally irrelevant. Tulsa was favored in 5 of those 6 wins and the other win they were only a 1.5 pt dog. The one loss they were a 20.5 pt dog. So that says that Tulsa was the better team in those wins (or in 5 of the 6 wins). Tulsa is not the better team right now, clearly UCF is.

Might be able to make an ATS case on them, might (bad UCF run D?). If you see the upset, you got to follow your gut. If you can make a case I would like to hear it because I need them to win their last 3 anyway!
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That brutal on the season total man. At this point you should really only need 1 more.. I’m not ready to make a case for them yet cause been trying to catch up on hoops but gonna do my damndest later this evening cause I really want there to be one. Lol
 
s--k said:
Regarding Tulsa, taking the intanglibles and motivations aside, the OL has been horrible all year. Sometimes Smith is at fault for the sacks and hurries, most times it is OL, then even when the protection holds Smith is looks flustered at times probably because he is expecting to get blasted any second. Tulsa has allowed 33 sacks, only 5 teams have allowed more. Rushing ypg, attempts and ypc are all down quite a bit with the poor OL as well.

Other than some bad luck, poor coaching and just not being able to finish, the OL is the only glaring weakness I have seen on their team.

Pretty disappointing (I did go over 4.5 on them). And surely they are disappointed as well. So they hit a new low point each week after another loss that they maybe could've won.

As to the specific point of Tulsa winning 6 of 7 vs UCF - totally irrelevant. Tulsa was favored in 5 of those 6 wins and the other win they were only a 1.5 pt dog. The one loss they were a 20.5 pt dog. So that says that Tulsa was the better team in those wins (or in 5 of the 6 wins). Tulsa is not the better team right now, clearly UCF is.

Might be able to make an ATS case on them, might (bad UCF run D?). If you see the upset, you got to follow your gut. If you can make a case I would like to hear it because I need them to win their last 3 anyway!
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Just something I consider and like looking at is the power ratings at scores and odds. Tulsa is the dog that has the largest gap in strength of schedule this week. I saw it and it made me look at this game a bit closer. Put this in the FWIW column:

Average power rating of opponents played: UCF 27.67, TULSA 38.67
 
JROCK1966 said:
Just something I consider and like looking at is the power ratings at scores and odds. Tulsa is the dog that has the largest gap in strength of schedule this week. I saw it and it made me look at this game a bit closer. Put this in the FWIW column:

Average power rating of opponents played: UCF 27.67, TULSA 38.67
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True, just their 5 AAC opponents I quickly looked have a combined 36-7 record. UCF's 5 AAC opponents are 20-23 I believe. Basically Tulsa has played all the top AAC teams...and play another this week. Tulsa has been in every game except Navy, was kinda in the Tulane game.
 
What do people think about Cal?

Offensively challenged...more than ever. Although Modster might be back, he's not good either, but better than the frosh QB. This is a Cougar D that allowed 37 or more pts in 4 of their 5 PAC12 games (did hold CU to 10) and had their DC resign. Cal's only sniffed 30 twice all year (vs UCDavis and NTex). They are averaging just over 10ppg vs PAC12.

Can their D keep them in this? I'm thinking back to the upset in Berkley of UW last year as 11 pt dogs where they just uglied it all up. W St might be hard to stop? Maybe not, thinking back again, 2017 this coaching staff held 8th ranked W St to just 3 pts on a home Friday night game. And last year 10th ranked W St only won 19-13 with a winning TD in the final minute.

Utah torched this Cal D for 35 pts, double their season ppg allowed prior. Prideful bunch, think they bring their best here and have a good track record vs Leach.

Can they cook up some O off the bye? Didn't do too well last time off a bye with Modster/Brasch at QB (282 yards 3.71 ypp vs Ore St).
 
San Jose definitely will have a shot.

They played arguably their best game offensive of the year vs Boise (497 yards). And with wins at Arkansas, at Army, a more competitive game than the score showed vs AF and cameback off a bad start to nearly beat Nevada.

Pretty good little team they are turning out to be.

Hawaii is always going to be up and down. The last two weeks McDonald is completing just 53% only with a 2-2 ratio in those last two games. He's been pulled for Cordeiro a couple times this year. I actually think Cordeiro is better.

Hawaii's D isn't stopping anyone,,,since their fluke? performance at Nevada, UH has allowed atleast 500 yards in every game...even New Mexico and 7.6 ypp average over the last 4 weeks.

Josh Love is putting together an All-MWC season, although he suffers some inconsistency as well. SJ St has no balance at all, but they are pretty good passing team with plenty of quality targets.

Even Brent Brennan's bad San Jose teams have competed well vs Hawaii. Last year was a 41-44 OT loss (+10.5). Two years ago SJ was only outgained by 53 yards in Honolulu losing 26-37 (+17)
 
s--k said:
True, just their 5 AAC opponents I quickly looked have a combined 36-7 record. UCF's 5 AAC opponents are 20-23 I believe. Basically Tulsa has played all the top AAC teams...and play another this week. Tulsa has been in every game except Navy, was kinda in the Tulane game.
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I was on Tulane and was pretty nervous most the game, lol. Simply cause as I mentioned thought it was s very similar letdown spot as the navy game.
 
FYI New Mexico Air Force is postponed until 11/23/19 due to the death on a UNM player earlier this week. Both teams had byes that week. Figured Id put it here since there is no bigger dog than UNM.
 
Thinking about playing some combination(s) of:

Liberty
Tulsa
N.Texas
Cal
Illinois
Wyoming 1st Half
 
I am interested in North Texas myself. They are so so banged up and kind of a shell of their former self. The last two games between these two have been outright upsets. This one requires some digging to get a feel for, but off the cuff I like it.
 
Man, I wish North Texas D wasn't so bad because it's making me hesitate. North Texas O and Fine has been playing good of late (RB Torrey may still be out this week though).

So, LaTech is pretty strong...but they haven't really played anyone except Southern Miss.

Working backwards from recent to older games
LT crushed UTEP (so did North Texas)
LT beat SMiss (more on that later)
LT crushed UMass (who doesn't)
bye week
LT beat Rice (in OT!)
LT beat FIU (FIU is not good this year)
LT crushed BGSU (everyone but Akron and Toledo do as well)

I've seen some LaTech football and they are good, but what win there is really supposed to impress me?

About the Southern Miss game...it was all about the turnovers. SM actually led by 14 to start, then by 10 later in the 1st H. LT would go on to win 45-30, 15 pt margin of victory but only outgained them by 39 yards. SM threw 4 INTs...LT got a 1p 30y drive after INT, got a pick-six, SM threw INT in the EZ from the L05 and ended the game with an INT. LT also benefited from a failed fake punt attempt deep in SM territory (10p 36y TD "drive"). SM only converted 1 of their two gained turnovers into pts (FG).

If that is LT's best win, it was a little fluky, but still give them credit for it - it's not a total fluke when Amik Robinson is getting picks (he had 3 of the 4, dude is a stud).

For North Texas...it's the D we have to worry about.

NT O gained a season high 539 yards at Charlotte (7.7 ypp). Problem? They allowed 589 (7.96 ypp). NT led 14-0 and 28-14 and 35-21 3rd Q. Problem was NT O cooled in the 4th as they missed and made a FG while Charlotte was scoring TDs and NT lost 38-39.

NT's game vs MTSU was close throughout although NT only trailed for a handful of minutes in the 2nd Q. NT did outgain them 507-433 in the 33-30 win. Of note, NT was in the RZ 7x but only got 2 TDs, with 4 FGs and 1 SOD at the MT09. NT did get the benefit of a 20y blk'd punt ret TD. MTSU kicked some short FGs as well.

NT played Southern Miss close throughout the 1st H with no team having more than a 1-6 pt advantage until SM took a 28-20 HT lead. NT missed a FG early 3rd and SM rattled off 17 unanswered. Fine and leading RB were knocked out of this game.

Then going back further, Houston just bum rushed NT...leading 17-0 and 24-6 in the 46-25 Final.

So we have a La Tech team that might not be quite as good as their record and wins make them out to be.

The problem is that NT doesn't play with much consistency and has defensive struggles.

I think it sets up to be a competitive game where either team can win. It's just not a jump out at you like "hey I really like North Texas". It's more of a "yeah, North Texas might be able to win...maybe"

LaTech playing to win the West. North Texas has virtually no shot at the West, but do need to win 2 of 3 for a bowl in Mason Fine's senior season. Even in a disappointing season, I do get the impression that NT still cares about making it back to a bowl even though their bigger goals have gone down the tubes. So they will prepare and want this game. Want isn't always good enough though. Just wish we had some defense. Either NT will have to have it be a shoot out, or LaTech is going to have to help them with turnovers, penalties and missed kicks....that is how North Texas won in 2017 with LT missed a would-be game winner in closing seconds. Then last year, NT had a FG go off the upright in the 4th and later LT blk'd the would-be game winner in the closing seconds. These games the last two years between these two have been super close. A total of 3 points combined the last two games.
 
Can't say I really love the line or odds for North Texas either. Would like to be getting atleast 7. Line does seem a little short. Recent series history can justify that, 2019 season results on the field don't support it. 5.5 currently. Maybe it will get bet up.
 
I've thought about Coastal as well. I respect ULL quite a bit, but they have had some curious games 2 of the last 3. Coastal has some things to like. Coastal beat them last year. Think it was Napier's first Sun Belt game.
 
Think I am going to follow along on Two Utes heels with the Coastal Carolina play.

Coastal is an improving team and can be a tough out.

Lost 56-37 at App St, but App only outgained them by 37 yards and the teams traded scores throughout the 1st H.

Georgia State won by 10 and did set a school record 350 yards vs CC (clearly worrisome considering tonight's opponent), but a bad snap on 4th-and-1 from the G08 late 4th Q kept it a 10 point game.

CC took Georgia Southern to 3 OT as a 7pt home dog.

Off their recent bye, Coastal posted their best offensive performance (sans UMass) with 476 yards and 27 FGs - must be said the D allowed 500 yards and 27 FDs as well. CC went for 2 with :26 left for the 1 pt win over Troy.

Bryce Carpenter gets his 3rd start tonight. He started some in 2018. The last 2 games he has posted 43-59-386-2-0 while adding 102 yards. Those passing numbers includes the challenging weather game vs GaSouthern. Fred Payton started the first 6 (injured shoulder), would be available if needed .

An unknown for CC this year was how would they replace WR Malcom Williams who was by far the #1 guy the last two years. Soph Jaivon Heiligh only caught 14 balls in 2018, but has 39 so far this year and is off a 12 catch game (school record). Heiligh and Carpetner played in HS together and have good chemistry .

One concern tonight for the Chants is the OL. One multi-year starter, Bedosky, has missed most of the season and now Ethan Howard who started 35 straight games is doubtful. This is the weakest part of CC's team and could be a problem. Howard's replacement last week struggled.

For ULL...somehow they only led 10-3 halftime at Texas State last week. They did end up outgaining Tex St by 200 yards, but Tex St had two chances deep to score late but couldn't and lost by 28.

ULL's most impressive game this year was a weeknight showdown at Arkansas State 37-20 (although ULL only outgained Ark St by 23 yards). Which was preceded by their most disappointing game this year, a surprisingly low scoring 7-17 loss home vs App St (ULL was held to 254 yards).

Historically, Coastal Carolina doesn't have a record of home upsets, but they seem to be playing well on offense right now. The iffy OL and shaky D vs a pretty good ULL team is going to make it tough, but heck it's worth $10 to me!

10 to win $47
 
Weather might help Tulsa. Bitter cold, mid 30s,maybe some wind, probably the coldest weather some of the UCF players have ever played in.

But, as pointed out above, there are coaching issues with Tulsa among many other issues. They have had the most penalties in the country since week 1 and I think they are still dead last. Also among the bottom feeders in the kicking game and red zone performance.

They seem to still be playing hard and they have a good defense at times, but I just don't trust them. They have found a lot of ways to lose games in the fourth quarter
 
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inZane said:
Where else can you get in-depth perspective on a game that I, for one, don't know shit about...

Thanks for the post and good luck.

:shake:
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Thinking about it, seems like the Over is something could hit. First of all, if you think ULL is better than scoring 7 on App St and "just" 31 on Texas State. They posted 37 at Ark St. Coastal Carolina should have difficulty stopping them and probably can only hope to slow them. CC has yielded 30+ to everyone not named Kansas or Norfolk.

So if ULL can get "theirs" it comes down to how much faith you have in the Chant's O. I can't speak for Two Utes, but I think CC's best hope is to slow ULL, ULL O should score a good bit. So with the ML play, I'm expecting CC O to be able to score as much and just a little more to hopefully beat them.

58.5 seems low if you think both teams could be getting in the 30s.

If people have been following ULL totals, they have gone under the last 3 weeks. So perhaps that set it a little lower than otherwise might be for this game. The prior 3 ULL games before that were all overs. Coastal has gone over 5 of the last 6.
 
TahoeLegend said:
Weather might help Tulsa. Bitter cold, maybe some wind, probably the coldest weather some of the UCF players have ever played in.

But, as pointed out above, there are coaching issues with Tulsa among many other issues. They have had the most penalties in the country since week 1 and I think they are still dead last. Also among the bottom feeders in the kicking game and red zone performance.

They seem to still be playing hard and they have a good defense at times, but I just don't trust them. They have found a lot of ways to lose games in the fourth quarter
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If your correlation of SU record and ATS record holds true, then Tulsa isn't going to be covering more than 1 of their final 3 games. They sit at 2-7 SU and are 5-4 ATS. TahoeLegend annually posts about bad teams with losing records more often than not have losing ATS records.

My problem with that, because I bet dogs and try to find unlikely upsets, is that you can pick and choose the right week to play the bad team. Might not be the best approach and not right for everyone though.

It apepears to be a very difficult game for Tulsa, probably their most difficult game of the season...with some questionable things as far as where their head is right now as their season has just fallen apart. That will just make it even better when they win!!! ;)
 
Thanks to all who posted on ULL/CC game. I bet these teams sometimes and have a vague understanding of them. Not enough to handicap them so I just go by pedigree.

If I had bet this game I would have gone ULL, but only bcause in my mind they are an established, successful team and C Carolina is still trying to prove they belong. (The only thing CC is famous for is having the former CEO of TDAmeritrade who left the business world to coach football as their coach).

I like betting all those directional Louisiana colleges and Sun Belt CUSA type teams. I think money can be made on them if I could get the kind of information I have on Power Five teams, but it's hard to find solid information by people who bet on their opinions.

This the only place I've been able to find it

Keep up the good work
 
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I like reading and posting info Tahoe on the obscure teams....knowing what to do with it is another matter. I'd honestly rather read about ULL-Coastal Carolina than LSU-Alabama.

Yeah, toast. They wouldn't be able to keep up anyway, but moved the ball on first two drives, 19 plays, but couldn't sustain them. Felt like that missed FG on opening drive was deflating for team. Kicker had made 9 straight.

Now just hoping they can contribute enough for the over. Or maybe ULL gets the over themselves, or close to it. Scored on every possession so far.
 
I did two plays so far. 2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs with the following teams. Tulsa (1st half +425 & +600 FG), Oregon State +310, Cal +245, and Illinois +500. The only difference between the two plays is Tulsa 1st half and FG ML. I just can’t resist playing the two home conference dogs on a Friday night. Total Risk $43.00 to Win $4,300.00

BOLTA!!
 
s--k said:
San Jose definitely will have a shot.

They played arguably their best game offensive of the year vs Boise (497 yards). And with wins at Arkansas, at Army, a more competitive game than the score showed vs AF and cameback off a bad start to nearly beat Nevada.

Pretty good little team they are turning out to be.

Hawaii is always going to be up and down. The last two weeks McDonald is completing just 53% only with a 2-2 ratio in those last two games. He's been pulled for Cordeiro a couple times this year. I actually think Cordeiro is better.

Hawaii's D isn't stopping anyone,,,since their fluke? performance at Nevada, UH has allowed atleast 500 yards in every game...even New Mexico and 7.6 ypp average over the last 4 weeks.

Josh Love is putting together an All-MWC season, although he suffers some inconsistency as well. SJ St has no balance at all, but they are pretty good passing team with plenty of quality targets.

Even Brent Brennan's bad San Jose teams have competed well vs Hawaii. Last year was a 41-44 OT loss (+10.5). Two years ago SJ was only outgained by 53 yards in Honolulu losing 26-37 (+17)
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Can't help but continue to think that San Jose is my favorite this week.

Hawaii is bit of a flawed favorite.
- just 1-2 ATS vs FBS
- D allows 36 ppg (worst MWC, 121st ncaa)
- negative 12 turnover margin (worst MWC, 126th ncaa)
- given up second most penalty yards per game MWC

Naturally there are things to like about Hawaii...#1 MWC total O, pass O, #2 scoring O, their 44% 3rd down conversion rate is the highest they've had in many years by a good margin. TDs on RZ trips of 73%.

San Jose on the other hand is a strong underdog.
- 4-3 ATS as dog with two close losses not covering by 2.5 and .5 in two of the three non-covers - they are a competitive team
- pulled two road upsets at Ark (+20.5) and at Army (+9.5) - overall 3-1 ATS on the road
- have followed a SU loss with SU win in 3 of 4 opportunites - they bounce back even off disappointing losses
- #2 MWC pass O
- 30 ppg O (6th MWC)
- positive 12 turnover margin (Tied 3rd ncaa)

San Jose does have it's drawbacks. They are totally one dimensional with no running game. Their D is bad, although it is mostly run D since they have good pass eff D due to forcing INTs. They give up 50% 3rd down conversion on D.

Fun stat...San Jose D is 2nd in the nation with 14 INTs. Hawaii is 4th worst in the nation with 13 INTs thrown.

To me, San Jose St feels like they are on the verge of turning a corner. With a Senior QB, and some good WRs/TEs, they are going to be able to hang offensively. The D - not sure what we will get there. The one positive aspect would be they force alot of INTs and Hawaii throws alot of INTs. And this team is tested, tested on the road and has pulled sizable upsets already.

I really am liking this one. Think I may put a full unit on it. Not sure if this is a good way to look at it or not, but I do have a Hawaii over 5.5 RSW play for $100. So if that wins, it will cover the San Jose risk. If San Jose wins I can still hope for a Hawaii win in one of their three final games.
 
Sjst and ville are prob my 2 favorite dogs.

Really like how Saterfield has ville playing and canes notoriously crappy after the fsu game.
 
Tell me why Washington has any motivation left at this point. After back to back close losses to Oregon and Utah all of their hopes for a good season are gone. Now they have to travel to Oregon State on a Friday night against a motivated team playing to get themselves closer to bowl eligibility.

Oregon State is playing well and they will definitely be the more motivated team. Give me the Beavers + 10.5 and the money line.
 
I totally agree, Brewers. Jimmymo has a great write up on this game on why Washington should win. I just have a hard time seeing the motivation factor for UW. Maybe talent wins out, but I'm jumping on the Beav tonight.
 
Agree about Louisville. I will have them for sure ATS.

I always try to walk into the plays knowing the pros and cons. LV D is an obvious con. Is that too much to hold it back or anything that Miami has to offer to fear? Probably one of the biggest negatives would be Miami off the FSU win, which really wasn't that great box score wise. Miami only rushed for 40y on 24 att off just 54y on 27 att 2 weeks ago vs Pitt. Miami OL still bad.
 
brewers888 said:
Tell me why Washington has any motivation left at this point. After back to back close losses to Oregon and Utah all of their hopes for a good season are gone. Now they have to travel to Oregon State on a Friday night against a motivated team playing to get themselves closer to bowl eligibility.

Oregon State is playing well and they will definitely be the more motivated team. Give me the Beavers + 10.5 and the money line.
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CPA-hole said:
I totally agree, Brewers. Jimmymo has a great write up on this game on why Washington should win. I just have a hard time seeing the motivation factor for UW. Maybe talent wins out, but I'm jumping on the Beav tonight.
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I think the motivation for Washington is weak, other than just wanting to win the game to not waste the time spent and get the taste out of losing the last 2. Problem is, those last 2 were the two biggest games of the year and both at home vs Oregon and Utah. So definitely think this is a flat spot traveling here. Coaches will need to get them up for this.

Just the Oregon State D is always going to be worrisome. Take out the anemic Cal O and the Beavs have allowed average of 507 ypg vs Arizona, Utah and UCLA in their last PAC12 games. I would think an interested Washington team can do the same. Would assume Washington recommits to the run tonight after having very little success running the last 2 weeks. Again though, the key is "an interested" Washington team. Oregon State has been very good to me this year, hoping they play well tonight. I might be just a bit gun shy on the ML myself.
 
brewers888 said:
Tell me why Washington has any motivation left at this point. After back to back close losses to Oregon and Utah all of their hopes for a good season are gone. Now they have to travel to Oregon State on a Friday night against a motivated team playing to get themselves closer to bowl eligibility.

Oregon State is playing well and they will definitely be the more motivated team. Give me the Beavers + 10.5 and the money line.
Click to expand...

I’m terrible at the motivational stuff as I’ve never been wired that way so hard for me to understand not being motivated. To win a game I’m playing makes my motivation same as every game I’ve ever played in. I understand unfortunately this isn’t a universal truth tho. Just never been able to figure it out so I take ya’ll word on this. lol.

I have no interest laying it but I think if you like beavers the over makes at least as much sense as the points, feel like udub should have little problem putting up a huge number so beavers gonna need 28+ to stay inside number. Think I will put half unit on over.
 
s--k said:
Agree about Louisville. I will have them for sure ATS.

I always try to walk into the plays knowing the pros and cons. LV D is an obvious con. Is that too much to hold it back or anything that Miami has to offer to fear? Probably one of the biggest negatives would be Miami off the FSU win, which really wasn't that great box score wise. Miami only rushed for 40y on 24 att off just 54y on 27 att 2 weeks ago vs Pitt. Miami OL still bad.
Click to expand...

Canes run d is very stout but I like the way Saterfield calls the rushing attack, they have had success rushing vs other strong run defenses.

Other than canes numbers after noles which been pretty damning another thing that stood out to me is ville has a top 20ish red zone conversion rate and 4th down and red zone the 2 areas canes defense falters ranking around 115-120 in both areas!!! On the other hand despite ville defense being pretty crappy they actually tighten up in those areas ranking inside top 50 in both while canes red zone efficacy on offense is horrid by ncaa standards (66% ranking 121st)!! Think those are pretty big areas to be getting around a td and better than 2 to 1.,
 
JROCK1966 said:
Thinking about playing some combination(s) of:

Liberty
Tulsa
N.Texas
Cal
Illinois
Wyoming 1st Half
Click to expand...

Did you scratch Liberty?

BYU did have a bye week between these last two games...otherwise off back-to-back wins vs Boise and Utah St could've spelled a let down spot here. I suppose the Boise game being 3 weeks ago then the bye negates that angle some.

It kinda just popped on my radar. You see Buckshot has a 20-3 ratio and has only thrown 1 INT since week 1?
Edit - actually he hasn't thrown one in 256 attempts. Hasn't thrown one since early in the week 2 game. He threw 18 last year, big improvement!
 
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