Week 11 ML Dogs

s--k said:
Did you scratch Liberty?

BYU did have a bye week between these last two games...otherwise off back-to-back wins vs Boise and Utah St could've spelled a let down spot here. I suppose the Boise game being 3 weeks ago then the bye negates that angle some.

It kinda just popped on my radar. You see Buckshot has a 20-3 ratio and has only thrown 1 INT since week 1?
Edit - actually he hasn't thrown one in 256 attempts. Hasn't thrown one since early in the week 2 game. He threw 18 last year, big improvement!
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The strength of schedule gap scares me but no, not really, I have not scratched them totally yet. I was going to make another play in the morning and was going to consider them again.

PS - c'mon Tulsa!!
 
Liberty has some impressive TFL and sack numbers. But must be noted that 30 of their 59 TFLs came in the Hampton, Maine and UMass games. And only 1 vs Rutgers. ? Same story with the sacks, 13 of the 27 came in those 3 games and only 1 vs Rutgers. That isn't good. Their D isn't great outside of them playing behind the LOS...vs the lesser opponents. Rutgers has been allowing over 6 TFL per game. Rutgers converted 12-of-17 3rd downs vs Liberty - which is quite bad considering Rutgers was actually 0-for-11 3rd down vs Indiana!

Total seems low at 58 don't it?
 
JROCK1966 said:
5 minutes to go and Tulsa with the lead!!! We've got a shot boys!!
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I thought for sure after the second settle for fg and actually making it they were gonna lose at end! Then ucf got like what 2 or 3 4th downs before finally getting stopped? Lol.
 
I went with over instead of beavers. I’ve cashed beavs as dogs a bunch but all on road to lessor pac-12 teams. I hope they take it home for you guys! Gl
 
2daBank said:
I thought for sure after the second settle for fg and actually making it they were gonna lose at end! Then ucf got like what 2 or 3 4th downs before finally getting stopped? Lol.
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Yep it was like wow how many times can they do that? I just can't believe they were held to 3pts in the 2nd half...unreal!
 
s--k said:
What do people think about Cal?

Offensively challenged...more than ever. Although Modster might be back, he's not good either, but better than the frosh QB. This is a Cougar D that allowed 37 or more pts in 4 of their 5 PAC12 games (did hold CU to 10) and had their DC resign. Cal's only sniffed 30 twice all year (vs UCDavis and NTex). They are averaging just over 10ppg vs PAC12.

Can their D keep them in this? I'm thinking back to the upset in Berkley of UW last year as 11 pt dogs where they just uglied it all up. W St might be hard to stop? Maybe not, thinking back again, 2017 this coaching staff held 8th ranked W St to just 3 pts on a home Friday night game. And last year 10th ranked W St only won 19-13 with a winning TD in the final minute.

Utah torched this Cal D for 35 pts, double their season ppg allowed prior. Prideful bunch, think they bring their best here and have a good track record vs Leach.

Can they cook up some O off the bye? Didn't do too well last time off a bye with Modster/Brasch at QB (282 yards 3.71 ypp vs Ore St).
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Modster is starting. So that helps even though he is not good still.

Washington State's D is down from last year after losing some key pieces they haven't been able to get back to some pretty good Ds they have 2018-2017. The O is still good - Borghi is a big difference this year. Gordon good obviously but he doesn't have the Minshew magic. And some Leach boneheadedness is present on this team as well.

Going to be hard for me to stay off this.

The way that Cal has played them the last 2 years, the respect I have for Wilcox and DeRuyter with the D gameplans and really the D personnel is strong across the board. I can't anticipate a reason why this Cal D won't have continued success vs W St again. Unless the O puts them in bad positions.

So that is what it boils down to. How much can anyone really trust this Cal O. All these Cal O's have been bad under Wilcox, but now they don't have atleast an average QB running it.

Washington State has the PAC12's worst run D in yards per game (193 - 4.97). Last year they were 3rd (141 -4.11).

That has to be where Cal's gameplan is focused and where they must win...even though their production doesn't tell us they can do it. Multi-year starting C Michael Saffell may be back after missing the last 2.
 
s--k said:
Liberty has some impressive TFL and sack numbers. But must be noted that 30 of their 59 TFLs came in the Hampton, Maine and UMass games. And only 1 vs Rutgers. ? Same story with the sacks, 13 of the 27 came in those 3 games and only 1 vs Rutgers. That isn't good. Their D isn't great outside of them playing behind the LOS...vs the lesser opponents. Rutgers has been allowing over 6 TFL per game. Rutgers converted 12-of-17 3rd downs vs Liberty - which is quite bad considering Rutgers was actually 0-for-11 3rd down vs Indiana!

Total seems low at 58 don't it?
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Liberty 7:30
N.Texas 4:00
Cal 7:00
Illinois 3:30
Wyoming 1st Half 10:15
San Jose St 11:00

All the games I like...and you guy's SJSt play start late......

Cal is definitely my favorite play tomorrow....check this out:

See the pic below. This comparison involves previous season records, current season records, and previous week's game results. Home teams are 14-2 SU overall!! What I like about this one is wins are all over the lines...both favs & dogs won including a 7.5 & 10pt home dog! Cal will be in my plays again tomorrow! I think I will have a 4-teamer with Liberty, Cal, N. Texas, and Illinois....then play a second one with Liberty, Cal, Wyoming, and San Jose. That's most likely my plan.

cal-wazzou.jpg
 
All the games after 7 eastern are going to be very meaningful to my day for sure. If the Wyoming line keeps going up I may have to bite...15.5 last I saw. Not sure if I can ML that one though.

I might look into Nevada some although I know the number's won't support it.
 
I put South Alabama in my dog pool picks. I have an urge on that game and maybe just putting it there satisfies it. I can't really begin to make a case for them, nor do I really want to LOL.
 
s--k said:
I put South Alabama in my dog pool picks. I have an urge on that game and maybe just putting it there satisfies it. I can't really begin to make a case for them, nor do I really want to LOL.
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I put Illini in and have buyers remorse. That game and line has me so baffled doubt I bet even tho I can’t freaking imagine Illini chances of winning not better than those crazy odds suggest. Hell I think it more likely than them losing by more than 2tds but of course so does rest of world and a pretty good rule that always worked for me is if I can’t understand why a line is where it is it prob best I stay away cause something being missed!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I put Illini in and have buyers remorse. That game and line has me so baffled doubt I bet even tho I can’t freaking imagine Illini chances of winning not better than those crazy odds suggest. Hell I think it more likely than them losing by more than 2tds but of course so does rest of world and a pretty good rule that always worked for me is if I can’t understand why a line is where it is it prob best I stay away cause something being missed!! Lol
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Illini have public dog bloodletting written all over it....however!!! After having said that, they have been playing really well and are on a roll. I won with them at Purdue when all my trends said to play Purdue so they have a knack for playing against conventional wisdom. They are worth a shot IMHO.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Illini have public dog bloodletting written all over it....however!!! After having said that, they have been playing really well and are on a roll. I won with them at Purdue when all my trends said to play Purdue so they have a knack for playing against conventional wisdom. They are worth a shot IMHO.
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The Purdue game just worked out gravy cause the weather made it challenging for Purdue to throw imo. I was on them as well cause ya knew Purdue wasn’t beating them in a rock fight!! I’ve actually been on Illini quite a bit this year (not against wiscy of course, lol)., they solid but the passing game a big concern and as discussed the line stinks. Normally I stay away when I don’t understand it and I don’t understand this at all. lol
 
I have about 20 dogs and 2 or 3 favorites which is normal. Do like LV, just would rather play the ATS and not risk more for them to win. Similar feelings on the rest of the dogs.

Nevada is more of a play slightly on what I think their potential is, which I could very well be wrong on. And of course a fade of the almost always underwhelming San Diego St team. Seems like a great return on investment if the SD St O that typically shows comes out here. Then of course I will need a better than normal game out of Nevada. Possible.
 
2daBank said:
I worry liberty doesn’t stack up well vs the bigger physical teams:, certainly not interested in BYU laying that kind of number tho so hope ya’ll cash it.
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Valid.

Part of the play is on the type of season BYU is having...beat Tennessee, USC and Boise...but have lost to Toledo and USF. You just never know with them. Think Liberty could be ok when BYU passes, the challenge will be stopping their run. Can BYU stop Buckshot with Freeze calling the plays?
 
s--k said:
I put South Alabama in my dog pool picks. I have an urge on that game and maybe just putting it there satisfies it. I can't really begin to make a case for them, nor do I really want to LOL.
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They are active this week in my Away dog, turnover trend.....

trend1.jpg
 
USA is absolutely a good ML play....ignore their previous garbage because Texas St. is garbage as well. My trend below (and previous post) back them pretty well. My comparisons in the pic below involve previous season records, current records, revenge factor, and the extra week of rest USA has over Texas State. The home team's SU record is only 4-5. They are 2-7 ATS. A closer look has 3 of the outright wins as lines of -13 or better for the home team. So.....for lines less than -13pts, the home team's SU record is 1-5. USA for the large baby!!

txst-usa.jpg
 
Here's what I'm rolling with today....I liked Georgia State in BBall and added them in. I just could not commit to Liberty FG as their strength of schedule is pretty weak compared to BYU and they can possibly be overmatched physically as @2daBank says. But BYU is off two tough opponents and I can absolutely see a letdown here in the 1st half and a high-scoring team (@s--k likes their QB) can make em pay if they are a little off. Spread these round-robins around a bit to hopefully help my chances....I need 4 out of 7 of these to hit to keep me from washing dishes next week for my meals. :oops:

4, 5, 6, & 7-teamer RRs:

BOLTA!!

parlay1.jpg
parlay2.jpg
 
USA missed a 28yd FG with 1 min to play....damn, betting on bad teams truly does suck.

:hitcomputer:
 
JROCK1966 said:
USA missed a 28yd FG with 1 min to play....damn, betting on bad teams truly does suck.

:hitcomputer:
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Do you back the picks with the ATS too?

That kick was just outside by about an inch, almost hit the upright, which would've helped.

I don't always think that every ML that loses is a bad play. SBama was right there all day and led for parts of that game too.
 
People really steaming Wazzou. Played that one too early. I did ML FIU for $20 on the spur of the moment. Trail 7-10 currently, who knows where that goes.
 
s--k said:
Do you back the picks with the ATS too?

That kick was just outside by about an inch, almost hit the upright, which would've helped.

I don't always think that every ML that loses is a bad play. SBama was right there all day and led for parts of that game too.
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Oh i think a bunch that lose are in fact good plays. You getting 3-4-5-6 or more to 1 and it comes down to last possession imo you making good plays that should profit if you doing that consistently.
 
Liberty pass D isn't holding up as I expected. Several PI calls against them. Still a tight game, but BYU D doing good job.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Wait...Wut???? I turned it off at 31-10 MSU.....that must have been an incredible comeback!!
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It was crazy. I didn’t take notice till they got it back inside the number and didn’t turn on till it was 7. They still did everything in their power to not win it!

Missed a xp to tie it. Then after a sparty fg they drive down to 1 yard line and 1st down qb bobbles under center snap and falls on his Butt for a loss, go backwards some more on 2nd, nothing on 3rd, then a pi to save them on 4th. Another 1st from 2 and go backwards again and all a sudden they out of time outs and they trying to sub so clock becomes a issue, look all disorganized but qb rolls out and extends play till a guy wide open in back! Score w 12 seconds left!! Lol
 
JROCK1966 said:
I did two plays so far. 2, 3, & 4-teamer RRs with the following teams. Tulsa (1st half +425 & +600 FG), Oregon State +310, Cal +245, and Illinois +500. The only difference between the two plays is Tulsa 1st half and FG ML. I just can’t resist playing the two home conference dogs on a Friday night. Total Risk $43.00 to Win $4,300.00

BOLTA!!
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Unreal I can't believe Illini came back. I had given up. Now suddenly I can hit 3 out of 4 if Cal holds on...c'mon Bears!!
 
2daBank said:
It was crazy. I didn’t take notice till they got it back inside the number and didn’t turn on till it was 7. They still did everything in their power to not win it!

Missed a xp to tie it. Then after a sparty fg they drive down to 1 yard line and 1st down qb bobbles under center snap and falls on his Butt for a loss, go backwards some more on 2nd, nothing on 3rd, then a pi to save them on 4th. Another 1st from 2 and go backwards again and all a sudden they out of time outs and they trying to sub so clock becomes a issue, look all disorganized but qb rolls out and extends play till a guy wide open in back! Score w 12 seconds left!! Lol
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That's insane!
 
s--k said:
San Jose St 100 to win 234
Nevada 50 to win 344
Cal 50 to win 120
Liberty 10 to win 61
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These and my multitude of unposted plays made what has to be my best day in a couple years. I don't remember it all anymore. Had San Jose won SU it would've been epic. Had my best day of the year 2 weeks ago, this was nearly double that. Going to be hard going to sleep right now.
 
s--k said:
These and my multitude of unposted plays made what has to be my best day in a couple years. I don't remember it all anymore. Had San Jose won SU it would've been epic. Had my best day of the year 2 weeks ago, this was nearly double that. Going to be hard going to sleep right now.
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Way to go @s--k !!

:shake:

I ended up winning a nickel definitely stopping the bleeding....still a bit bittesweet for me as we could not punch it in 2yds away from the win with a min to go. We missed a chip-shot FG that would've beat Florida and then could not reach the goal line from 2 yds out last night against Tennessee. This is all because of Terry Wilson getting hurt back against East Michigan week 2....I can only sit and wonder what my Cats' football season would have been like had he not got hurt. Time to get over it and move on I guess....

:bballspin:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Way to go @s--k !!

:shake:

I ended up winning a nickel definitely stopping the bleeding....still a bit bittesweet for me as we could not punch it in 2yds away from the win with a min to go. We missed a chip-shot FG that would've beat Florida and then could not reach the goal line from 2 yds out last night against Tennessee. This is all because of Terry Wilson getting hurt back against East Michigan week 2....I can only sit and wonder what my Cats' football season would have been like had he not got hurt. Time to get over it and move on I guess....

:bballspin:
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I’m ready for Basketball Season as well!
 
s--k said:
These and my multitude of unposted plays made what has to be my best day in a couple years. I don't remember it all anymore. Had San Jose won SU it would've been epic. Had my best day of the year 2 weeks ago, this was nearly double that. Going to be hard going to sleep right now.
Click to expand...

I had really fat parlay w sjst ml too. Glad they at least managed to cover. It was def a awesome day!!
 
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