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Goodbye to Romance College Football
Georgia State (5-3) at 2-7 Texas State (2-7) +6.5 / +203
Texas State has posted back-to-back 500y outputs, it really seems like their O is clicking, running the system as the staff wants and having fun (executing trick plays as well). The yardage output has also led to a season high point total last week (35) and a tie-second season high pts the prior week (27). They've run 89 and 91 plays the last two games and the production on yard per play has been season highs as well - 6.33 last game and 5.57 two games ago.
Two weeks ago Tex St D absolutely dominated Coastal Carolina on the road, holding them to just 183y! CC had been avg 417 vs Sun Belt coming in!!
Texas St has the 27th ranked rush D in the ncaa! Their D has trimmed over 10 ppg, the rush D is almost 100 ypg better. The pass ypg has increased slightly, but the Pass Eff D rating improved from 12th in the Sun Belt 2016 to 9th this season. They already have 10 more sacks this year than they did all of last year! Their 3rd down conv D of 34% ranks them 35th (last year they allowed 42%).
Depth is a concern and it was contributing reason Texas St couldn't hold on to their half time lead vs NMSt. They also gave up some big plays to New Mexico State. NMSt has a nice O and some nice weapons, so no surprise they were able to hit some big plays - Aggies are #3 Sun Belt O.
Georgia State has an excellent player coming in...WR Penny Hart. Hart very well might be the best O player in the league. 61rec 876y 14.36ypc 8TD 109.5 ypg. Hart has as many receptions in the #2-4 receivers combined. Plus they have a decent QB in Conner Manning. The absolute key to the game is going to be how they can try and deal with Hart. Ga State doesn't have much else. They don't run it well or with any consistency. Their O only avg 328 ypg the last 3 (vs GaSo, USA, Troy). They only outgained GaSo by 32y and were outgained by USA. Ga State O only avg 20.5 ppg. They are the #7 Sun Belt O and a good #3 D.
Last year Ga State won this game 41-21 (-10.5) as Texas St was losing big to just about everyone on a weekly basis. Tx St actually led that game 14-0 and then Ga St got on absolute fire scoring the next 34! Tx St did turn it over 4x (incl a SOD) and had a missed FG being outgained 420-536. Tyler Jones was QB for that game. Damien Williams is the QB now, former Miss State, and is off his two best games of the season.
Turnovers can be a problem. They've lost 18 on the year and are -11, they've avg -2 the last 3 games. They are the only D in the Sun Belt to not have an INT yet this year (only had 3 last year).
It is home finale, senior day, although it is a smaller senior class, they are playing alot of younger players. I think it is still a nice spot for a home dog playing their best football of the season with confidence.
Texas State has posted back-to-back 500y outputs, it really seems like their O is clicking, running the system as the staff wants and having fun (executing trick plays as well). The yardage output has also led to a season high point total last week (35) and a tie-second season high pts the prior week (27). They've run 89 and 91 plays the last two games and the production on yard per play has been season highs as well - 6.33 last game and 5.57 two games ago.
Two weeks ago Tex St D absolutely dominated Coastal Carolina on the road, holding them to just 183y! CC had been avg 417 vs Sun Belt coming in!!
Texas St has the 27th ranked rush D in the ncaa! Their D has trimmed over 10 ppg, the rush D is almost 100 ypg better. The pass ypg has increased slightly, but the Pass Eff D rating improved from 12th in the Sun Belt 2016 to 9th this season. They already have 10 more sacks this year than they did all of last year! Their 3rd down conv D of 34% ranks them 35th (last year they allowed 42%).
Depth is a concern and it was contributing reason Texas St couldn't hold on to their half time lead vs NMSt. They also gave up some big plays to New Mexico State. NMSt has a nice O and some nice weapons, so no surprise they were able to hit some big plays - Aggies are #3 Sun Belt O.
Georgia State has an excellent player coming in...WR Penny Hart. Hart very well might be the best O player in the league. 61rec 876y 14.36ypc 8TD 109.5 ypg. Hart has as many receptions in the #2-4 receivers combined. Plus they have a decent QB in Conner Manning. The absolute key to the game is going to be how they can try and deal with Hart. Ga State doesn't have much else. They don't run it well or with any consistency. Their O only avg 328 ypg the last 3 (vs GaSo, USA, Troy). They only outgained GaSo by 32y and were outgained by USA. Ga State O only avg 20.5 ppg. They are the #7 Sun Belt O and a good #3 D.
Last year Ga State won this game 41-21 (-10.5) as Texas St was losing big to just about everyone on a weekly basis. Tx St actually led that game 14-0 and then Ga St got on absolute fire scoring the next 34! Tx St did turn it over 4x (incl a SOD) and had a missed FG being outgained 420-536. Tyler Jones was QB for that game. Damien Williams is the QB now, former Miss State, and is off his two best games of the season.
Turnovers can be a problem. They've lost 18 on the year and are -11, they've avg -2 the last 3 games. They are the only D in the Sun Belt to not have an INT yet this year (only had 3 last year).
It is home finale, senior day, although it is a smaller senior class, they are playing alot of younger players. I think it is still a nice spot for a home dog playing their best football of the season with confidence.