Week 11 ML Dogs

Georgia State (5-3) at 2-7 Texas State (2-7) +6.5 / +203

Texas State has posted back-to-back 500y outputs, it really seems like their O is clicking, running the system as the staff wants and having fun (executing trick plays as well). The yardage output has also led to a season high point total last week (35) and a tie-second season high pts the prior week (27). They've run 89 and 91 plays the last two games and the production on yard per play has been season highs as well - 6.33 last game and 5.57 two games ago.

Two weeks ago Tex St D absolutely dominated Coastal Carolina on the road, holding them to just 183y! CC had been avg 417 vs Sun Belt coming in!!

Texas St has the 27th ranked rush D in the ncaa! Their D has trimmed over 10 ppg, the rush D is almost 100 ypg better. The pass ypg has increased slightly, but the Pass Eff D rating improved from 12th in the Sun Belt 2016 to 9th this season. They already have 10 more sacks this year than they did all of last year! Their 3rd down conv D of 34% ranks them 35th (last year they allowed 42%).

Depth is a concern and it was contributing reason Texas St couldn't hold on to their half time lead vs NMSt. They also gave up some big plays to New Mexico State. NMSt has a nice O and some nice weapons, so no surprise they were able to hit some big plays - Aggies are #3 Sun Belt O.

Georgia State has an excellent player coming in...WR Penny Hart. Hart very well might be the best O player in the league. 61rec 876y 14.36ypc 8TD 109.5 ypg. Hart has as many receptions in the #2-4 receivers combined. Plus they have a decent QB in Conner Manning. The absolute key to the game is going to be how they can try and deal with Hart. Ga State doesn't have much else. They don't run it well or with any consistency. Their O only avg 328 ypg the last 3 (vs GaSo, USA, Troy). They only outgained GaSo by 32y and were outgained by USA. Ga State O only avg 20.5 ppg. They are the #7 Sun Belt O and a good #3 D.

Last year Ga State won this game 41-21 (-10.5) as Texas St was losing big to just about everyone on a weekly basis. Tx St actually led that game 14-0 and then Ga St got on absolute fire scoring the next 34! Tx St did turn it over 4x (incl a SOD) and had a missed FG being outgained 420-536. Tyler Jones was QB for that game. Damien Williams is the QB now, former Miss State, and is off his two best games of the season.

Turnovers can be a problem. They've lost 18 on the year and are -11, they've avg -2 the last 3 games. They are the only D in the Sun Belt to not have an INT yet this year (only had 3 last year).

It is home finale, senior day, although it is a smaller senior class, they are playing alot of younger players. I think it is still a nice spot for a home dog playing their best football of the season with confidence.
 
Virginia (6-3) +11.5 / +344 at Louisville (5-4)

Louisville Defense is bad. Last 4 games they are allowing 526y! (WF, FSU, BC, NCSt). On the year they are allowing a TD more ppg than 2016. LV is allowing 410 ypg this year, last year they allowed just 322! Their yard per play allowed ranks 96th (5.96).

Thankfully for them the O is still producing. The ypg are up 16, good enough for 3rd in the nation at 546 per. But the pts are down 6 pts to 36.6. In those afore mentioned games their O has avg 516 and scored 32.5 ppg. NCSt and WF outgained them.

Louisville has lost their last 3 games straight up as favorites, and lost 3 of 4 overall. They are actually only 2-7 ATS (covers at UNC and at FSU as a dog).

Virginia D is better. They are allowing 8.5 ppg less this year than last. The ypg has gone down from 447 to 344. Their yard per play allowed ranks 36th (5.17).

Virginia O is slightly better. The ypg is up 21, but still only ranks 92nd with 394 per. The ppg is up 4 to 26.3. GT outgained them even though UVA won, but UVA outgained Pitt even though Pitt won by 17.

Turnover margin for both teams is improved. Last year LV lost 32, with a -7 margin. This year they've only lost 15 for a -1 margin. Virginia lost 26 for a -9 ratio last year. This year they've only lost 10 for a +3 margin.

Virginia has won 2 of their last 3 straight up as dogs, although just 3 of their last 5 overall. They are 4-5 ATS (2-2 as dogs).

So we have a LV O that is still producing, although not as well as last season and a LV D that is poor. Virginia is about the same on O, but slightly better and overall better on D.

Last year's game was crazy. UVA came in 2-5, LV was 6-1. A 40y punt ret set up UVA at the L7, but settled for FG. 3-0. LV moved 5p 87y for 7-3 game. LV would fumble setting UVA up for a 2p 28y TD. 10-7. UVA threw INT at L5, but Jackson was sacked on 4th and 3 from V30. UVA was then SOD at L23. 10-7 HT UVA. LV punted to open the 3rd and UVA went 6p 69y for TD and 17-7 lead! Jackson threw INT, but UVA missed FG. LV went 8p 80y for TD. 17-14 end 3rd. Benkert threw INT and LV had a 2p 12y TD to lead 21-17. LV added a FG for 24-17 lead. UVA got the ball with 8m left, converted 4th down 2x on their way to a 14p 75y TD drive, and went for 2...and got it! 25-24 Hoos! 1:57 left. LV converted 4th down and then hit a 29y TD pass with :13 left for the win. 32-25.

2015 was close most of the game. UVA came in 3-6, LV 5-4. UVA goes up 7-0, LV kicks FG. 7-3 end 1st. LV took a 10-7 lead, but UVA came right back 14-10. LV quickly added another TD...17-14 and UVA kicked FG to end half. 17-17. LV opened the 3rd with a TD...24-17, UVA punted twice then missed a FG, end of 3rd. LV fumbled near midfield and UVA drove for TD to tie. 24-24. UVA fumbled a punt and LV got a 2p 2y TD "drive"....31-24. LV went 8p 96y for another TD....38-24. UVA scored TD with 1:19 left and LV recovered the onside kick. Jackson did not start at QB, but played in the game.

These two have played close games. Not sure why it won't be the same this year.
 
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Some concern about Virginia hangover post the GT win, which made them bowl eligible. It was a party in the locker room. UVA players had said they were playing tight in some of the games leading up to the 6th win with pressure to get bowl eligible. So potential they could let down. LV rested obviously off the bye.
 
Adding this one for today....the thing I like about this one is that all these dogs except for MSU are all from my SDQL research this week. None of my bias was involved which is good because my gut feelings are terrible most of the time.....let's roll baby!!

3, 4, 5, & 6 teamers....
  1. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 127 Florida* +190 vs South Carolina
  2. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 142 Army* +145 vs Duke
  3. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 156 Baylor* +250 vs Texas Tech
  4. 11/11/2017 8:00 PM College Football 166 Miami Florida* +136 vs Notre Dame
  5. 11/11/2017 7:00 PM College Football 178 Mississippi State* +415 vs Alabama
  6. 11/11/2017 6:30 PM College Football 205 Western Kentucky* +335 vs Marshall
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $3,227.16
 
JROCK1966 said:
Went ahead and bought my first scratch-off lotto ticket for the week since I don't see any 1st Half plays....might as well ride the trends in post #39 and added the Vols to 'em.

3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs with these teams:
  1. 11/8/2017 7:00 PM College Football 108 Ohio* +155 vs Toledo
  2. 11/10/2017 10:30 PM College Football 122 Stanford* +180 vs Washington U
  3. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 162 Iowa State* +215 vs Oklahoma State
  4. 11/11/2017 7:00 PM College Football 178 Mississippi State* +450 vs Alabama
  5. 11/11/2017 7:30 PM College Football 189 Tennessee U* +335 vs Missouri
  6. 11/11/2017 10:30 PM College Football 218 Colorado State* +190 vs Boise State
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $3,671.76

:tiphat:
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Got the start you wanted here! I may be on Miss St and see why on ISU and Tenn. I will have Colorado St ML as well!
 
Boise State (7-2) at Colorado State (6-4) +6 / +195

Appears to be the wrong time to be going against Boise State and on Colorado State.

Since their bye Boise is 5-0 and covered 4 of 5 (noncover was -14 vs Wyo where Boise won by 10). Broncos have it going on both sides of the ball. Colorado State started losing momentum about a month ago and have not covered 4 straight and lost back-to-back games.

To make matters worse, Boise had won all 5 of their previous matchups vs CSU by double digits before last year. Boise was up 28-3 last year before CSU recovered 2 onside kicks and made it look closer than it was. Two years ago Boise got up 17-0 before CSU had a first down!

So this takes a leap of faith.

At 4-2 in the division with only slim chances of winning it and having lost to their two biggest rivals the last 2 weeks, one of the few goals left for the Rams is to beat Boise something that has painfully eluded every member of the CSU team.

Dalyn Dawkins is having a career season. He's more explosive in breaking chunk and big plays this year ranking 15th nationally with 10+y runs 18th 20+y runs, last year he ranked 80th and 64th respectively. In his first two years, he avg'd 5.5 ypc, this ssn it's up to 6.6. He is avg 30 more ypg this year, his ypg puts him 23rd nationally, same neighborhood as Gaskins, Guice for perspective. Note Izzy Mathews is out with broken clavicle, he was a very good complimentary back.

The OL is strong. 8 of the top 9 are Sr or Jr with 114 career starts among them. They've only allowed 6 sacks in 10 games this season an improvement over their already good 13 last year. It comes on 332 pass att for just 2% of dropbacks (last year was 3.5%). For perspective Boise has allowed 19 sacks on 267 pass att for 7% of dropbacks.

Throughout the season WR Michael Gallop has been atop or near the top of PFF's best WR in terms of catch/target ratio and YAC. Gallop has 76r for 1196y. He has Biletnikoff Award and AA potential. As good as Boise's D is, they rarely see an elite WR. Virginia's big play WR did go for 5r-141-28.2-2TD.

So CSU OL is getting it done for Dawkins and for pass protection. The play making WR produces among the best in the country. What's wrong?

Sr QB Nick Stephens is the reason. He has been out of rhythm at times and missed throws. Hard to put too much into the weather game last week, but 2 weeks ago against AF Stevens threw 3 INTs when he hadn't thrown any in previous 4 MWC games. He had a 3 game stretch vs MWC of 74% completions, but the last 3 games is just hitting 54%. CSU's chances are likely going to rest on how well Stephens plays, getting him going early will be important.

Boise has gotten better as the season has gone on, they still are not to the level of previous teams. Their big plays on O are way down. Only 36 20+y plays this year compared to 78 last year. And they are avg 100y less ypg on O this year over last. While CSU D has never been known as a great unit, there has been some modest improvement, the fact that Boise is less explosive gives them a chance to matchup better than they have in previous years.

This is simply just a critical game for CSU, arguably this was the program's most important game coming into this season and perhaps the biggest game for Bobo who has failed in some of their other rivalry and big games at a higher than expected rate. They need to prove to themselves, coaches and players, they can do it vs Boise. Still a quality team, this does appear to be the weakest Boise team over the last several years. And CSU has hit a rough patch, this was looking like the best CSU team in the last couple years. Should be a good one with upset potential in my eyes.
 
I'm on some ugly one but hope for some wins. pts and ML in Baylor, TCU, ecu, CSU, txst and half a unit just on ML with Nebraska
 
Man I got a feeling abt Da Noles today.
They have nothing to lose. And this team has some athletes.
Staying w/ a State of Florida Theme for 3
How often do you get all 3 of these Teams as an underdog and with points.
I am ML parlay these 3. Teasing them. And taking the pts.
FSU
Gators
Canes
Of course this isn't the 80s or 90s teams.

I do like WKU today as well.
 
s--k said:
Got the start you wanted here! I may be on Miss St and see why on ISU and Tenn. I will have Colorado St ML as well!
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Concerning Tennessee, i could not find many stats or trends in their favor. I️ just know what I️ saw the last two weeks. Ky loses that game imo if John Kelley was not suspended and Stephen Johnson does not run the RO. I️ also think the line is a bit of over-reaction to Mizzous win over Fl....a team we know had issues that week. Last week watched that USM game and imo UT is far from quitting despite their struggles. They were playing very hard. UT still has the more athletic roster especially on the defensive side of the ball and they rank pretty well in pass defense. Anyway, that’s the jist of it.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Man I got a feeling abt Da Noles today.
They have nothing to lose. And this team has some athletes.
Staying w/ a State of Florida Theme for 3
How often do you get all 3 of these Teams as an underdog and with points.
I am ML parlay these 3. Teasing them. And taking the pts.
FSU
Gators
Canes
Of course this isn't the 80s or 90s teams.

I do like WKU today as well.
Click to expand...
I'll be with on the toppers and will shit myself if the Noles win outright. Probably shit myself if they don't. Should be lit by the end of that game.
 
Mates I posted a few in my deal but am so groggy, not gonna pull em over. There will be several throughout the day, early NOV is my favorite time to play em
 
GameDay has a Super Dog Selection Segment?
Ark = Desmond
Baylor = Herbie
Tulane = Corso
Col St = Rece
 
Iowa 50 to win 172
Texas State 50 to win 101
Colorado State 50 to win 97
Ark 10 to win 75
Virginia 10 to win 34
San Jose 10 to win 61
 
JROCK1966 said:
I started an SDQL thread because 1) I think this stuff is cool and 2) I didn't want to clutter up this thread....check it out if you want.
Click to expand...

I dunno if you ever visit sbr but I have a buddy over there that really into the sdql stuff, I'll shout at him and see if he has time to come over to your thread and discuss it as he pretty experienced with it.
 
Shaping up for a bad day. Iowa doesn't bother me, they played like crap, but I'm used to losing to Wisconsin. And I'll probably be back to do it again the next 2 weeks. Texas State hurts. They had a bad 4th qrt, that was one that got away and could've used it.

Colorado State is going to be huge to minimize the damage, hopefully not add to it.
 
4 minutes to go and Miss State had it 4th and 2 on the Bama 45 and decided to punt instead of going for it and eventually going for the score and the win...that was ballgame right there. For the life of me, I just don't understand why coaches can't recognize the the time in which they need to seize the day instead of playing it safe.....and Dan Mullen of all people.
 
Tough end to that game for you JRock.

I'm going back fo mo on CSU 50 for 103.
 
Man I have had so much go against me today. Every end of game score I needed I didn't get and any potential score to end a game that could hurt me did. ECU +5.5/6.5 got stuffed on 4th-and-goal at the 1 in OT to end game. Purdue trying to back door threw INT at the 5. Clemson front doors to win by 17 with :30 left when I had FSU. MTSU stopped playing too early and Charlotte back doors to make it 14, I laid 15. Dantonio for some reason pulled Lewerke after he drove them for a potential garbage drive once they hit the RZ and put in some backup, cost me legit shot at the over. Late line move, missed the 3.5 on BC, so push. Late line move missed the 3.5 on SMU, so pushed. Colorado had chance to backdoor, but team didn't know it was 4th down inside the 5 and ran a run play which lend to turn over on downs inside the 5. I'm probably missing something. Just not one single break went my way today. Rough.
 
s--k said:
Man I have had so much go against me today. Every end of game score I needed I didn't get and any potential score to end a game that could hurt me did. ECU +5.5/6.5 got stuffed on 4th-and-goal at the 1 in OT to end game. Purdue trying to back door threw INT at the 5. Clemson front doors to win by 17 with :30 left when I had FSU. MTSU stopped playing too early and Charlotte back doors to make it 14, I laid 15. Dantonio for some reason pulled Lewerke after he drove them for a potential garbage drive once they hit the RZ and put in some backup, cost me legit shot at the over. Late line move, missed the 3.5 on BC, so push. Late line move missed the 3.5 on SMU, so pushed. Colorado had chance to backdoor, but team didn't know it was 4th down inside the 5 and ran a run play which lend to turn over on downs inside the 5. I'm probably missing something. Just not one single break went my way today. Rough.
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i feel ya for sure. Add WKU & Florida to that list for me. Same w/ MTSU & FSU. Rough Rough day all around. Yesterday was not pretty at all. But hey.... at least there is next week.
 
Yesterday was as bad as it gets, among the worst days I can remember. And of course I chased at night to try and salvage something; 6-24-2 yesterday. I haven't done the math yet, gonna be ugly. No doubt ruined all the winnings for the season. Losing is one thing, being wrong is one thing, but the manner in which so many of those games lost, Colorado St being an all-time low. No fun.
 
The hits just kept coming. Needed an onside kick by ArzSt for a chance and it didn't go 10 yards. Boise needed an onside kick and ofcourse it was perfect.
 
I feel you, sk, a few things go different that very very easily could have and its a different result. But at least you know its not your always steady capping at fault and luck always turns around so you can only be optimistic amigo
 
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