Week 11 ML Dogs

JROCK1966 said:
Went ahead and bought my first scratch-off lotto ticket for the week since I don't see any 1st Half plays....might as well ride the trends in post #39 and added the Vols to 'em.

3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs with these teams:
  1. 11/8/2017 7:00 PM College Football 108 Ohio* +155 vs Toledo
  2. 11/10/2017 10:30 PM College Football 122 Stanford* +180 vs Washington U
  3. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 162 Iowa State* +215 vs Oklahoma State
  4. 11/11/2017 7:00 PM College Football 178 Mississippi State* +450 vs Alabama
  5. 11/11/2017 7:30 PM College Football 189 Tennessee U* +335 vs Missouri
  6. 11/11/2017 10:30 PM College Football 218 Colorado State* +190 vs Boise State
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $3,671.76

:tiphat:
Click to expand...
I think you will get a couple 2s, a 3, and maybe a four if the stars align. Hope you hit em all. I will then have stories for my children.
 
I started an SDQL thread because 1) I think this stuff is cool and 2) I didn't want to clutter up this thread....check it out if you want.
 
Have a few ideas but nothing confirmed yet
Liking Texas State +6 and +190, Colorado St +6 and +190 and liking Baylor, TCU and Iowa State too.

Have some long shots that I am considering even though they stink at first glance.

ULL +20 and +850 @ Ole Miss with likely play on first half ML ULL.
Game means more to ULL and somewhat rivalry, statement game for ULL than Ole Miss.
ULL had first half lead on aTm before getting blown out in 2nd half.
Cajuns have some weapons to run, pass, score just not sure about stopping Ole Miss passing game.

Also looking at 1st half ML for Miss St, Iowa, and Maryland

UNM +19 and ML +750
UNM has lost 4 straight and has been blown out on the scoreboard.
This is the worst looking play but digging deeper most of UNM trouble has been turnovers like 4 at Utah St and 7 at Wyoming.
On stats they were close or even ahead of opponents in all four losses except outgained 526-322 at Fresno St.
aTm off loss to Auburn and Ole Miss then LSU in next two weeks.
If UNM can stop the turnovers and catch aTm flat think this could be close and pressure on aTm builds with possible UNM win.

Also looking at Coastal Carolina over Troy as the difference in the two teams is less than 17 points imo.
 
ULL started tr fr QB Levi Lewis last week, first action of career. So this will be game 2 for him.
 
Two small winners last night. Anything tonight? UNC may have the best chance. Although APP St has been in a funk the past few weeks.
 
s--k said:
Agreed. SMU has been nice team this year. Navy in rough patch. Temple is transitioning into a pass oriented O and they had that success, SMU has better weapons in a more experienced system. I suppose recent history is a concern...Navy won 75-31 last year (they actually trailed 21-24) and 55-14 2 years ago. But SMU is better this year and Navy not. Seemed to me that SMU put alot into that game last week, can't guess where their heads would be - but wouldn't surprise if they were a little flat. They still have division race to play for. I could see myself taking Ponies here.
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Yeah, there's always a case to be made for SMU against Navy, and then Navy covers by 30+. I've seen it too many times over the years. There's no explanation I can come up with, but by this point I would never buck the trend.
 
Just about impossible to see Ball St pulling a shocker. But the other two, as bad as GaSouthern and UNC have been I could see it.

If nobody knew it before, we all know it now, App St has major issues. Uncompetitive at Georgia, ok no harm there. Struggle at Texas St? Strange. Almost lose to Idaho? OK...well... Trail vs Coastal Carolina? I get it now. Lose to UMass? Not surprised. ULM beats them? Yeah they suck.

App St should not be bad, but they are not a good team as their results repeatedly have shown.

Ga Southern is bad as well, and predictably bad. However, since the coaching change they have been competitive the last 2 weeks. Traded scores with Troy early, then couldn't keep up. Led most of the game vs Ga State, but fumbled the game away.

I think Ga Southern can compete better than expected in this game unless App St somehow suddenly snaps out of whatever they are going through.

UNC played pretty good against Miami. Might be the expection because it is just about the only time all year you could say that, maybe the Virginia game as well. Seems like a high price on Pitt. They did handle Virginia last time out fairly well and the running game is coming along. Still have concerns about the Pitt O in general, mostly DiNucci since he is not a good passer. Elliot going at QB for Heels? I'd have to look. If so this would be his first start.
 
The way that Appy plays they are good at leading and really bad at being behind. The team a few years ago was a bit more dominant and lead more games but if you look back at their scores there are a number of instances against lower competition where the lower competition strings together a drive and scores and say Appy turns it over and then they are in a dog fight for the rest of the game. If the team as a whole is down then it would make sense they are in overall more dogfights for games.
 
Seems almost like they just don't really care that much on a weekly basis. Like they think they can just roll these no-name teams and go through the motions. And the other teams they are playing wants it more.
 
Pretty horrible coaching job by Satterfield this year I think. Can't find any excuse for it. Lost some receivers, but this team should not be having these kind of results. One of the biggest underachievers this year.
 
The starting QB for UNC against the "U" was making his first start. Left handed, don't know the name, but thought he played a solid game.
 
He came off bench when Surratt got hurt and Harris wasn't dressed. If all 3 can play this week they starting Elliot? Likely news on it, I have not looked.
 
s--k said:
He came off bench when Surratt got hurt and Harris wasn't dressed. If all 3 can play this week they starting Elliot? Likely news on it, I have not looked.
Click to expand...
I see Harris as questionable, no loss there. Surratt isn't listed as out. So, I suppose he is a go. I would still put Elliot out there. The offense was moving the ball well with him.
 
Yeah, I would hope Harris just doesn't see the field at all.

I could possibly play on Sarratt or Elliot. Trade off of the experience vs the unknown, but potential upside of Elliot vs Mia.

Interesting to see that UNC run D has not given up over 4 ypc the last 3 weeks (Vir, VT, Mia). 3.3, 3.9, 1.8.

Pitt's new found running game is fairly recent.
 
Assuming they care, App St has won big the last 2 years...by 24 and 18 pts.

Ga Southern is 1 of only 2 winless teams in the country.
 
Narrowing things down, may do ULL and Coastal Carolina 1st half but not full game

No Carolina + 10 (-130) and .20 ML
Miss St +14 and ML half unit ( usual ML is .20 )
UNM +19 and ML
Texas State + 6 and ML
Colorado State + 6

Going to play these three and some parlays of 2 teams on points and ML and 3 teamer for same ... think 2 of these hit
Baylor + 7 1/2 and ML
Iowa St + 7 and ML
TCU + 7 and ML
 
I did take UNC and GaSo tonight. Wanted to spice it up with a ML shot, but just don't think it is reasonable use of a ML on those. My NC line is only 9. But hopefully dogs bark tonight and upsets will be good for you CHSGTMD.
 
Short and sweet....I found some SDQL momentum for these dogs this weekend.

Stanford
Miami
Western Kentucky
Army
Florida

Write-ups in posts 1, 6, 25, 27, & 41 in my SDQL thread if interested.

:megaphone:
 
going to do some 1st half ML but no lines yet but will post lat Fri or early Sat
Looking at UNM Miss St Iowa for sure and likely work in Coastal Carolina and ULaLa small
Liking UNM more as it is November and although I like Sumlin just see this as let down spot for aTm and if UNM can stop turnovers think they compete
Not liking ULaLa or Coastal Car full game any more
 
I really only spend time talking about the bigger dogs. I like the more unexpected stuff.

But certainly, I look forward to your article. If anyone didn't know it before, we all know it now that VT O isn't anything great so no reason they should be an automatic to do whatever they want this week.
 
Iowa is +11.5 / +344

Average score last 3 Wisconsin 16.33 - Iowa 13

SU Road team won the last 3. Dog covered 2 of last 3 (1 outright upset).

2016 #10 Wisconsin (-4) 17-9 at Iowa - UW led 7-6 HT and 14-6 entering 4th qrt
2015 #19 Wisconsin vs Iowa (+6) 10-6 - UW fumbled at Iowa1 in the 4th qrt
2014 #14 Wisconsin 26-24 at Iowa (+10) - tied 3-3 2nd qrt, Iowa scored and kicked deep, UW killed final 5m
2013 #22 Wisconsin (-9) 28-9 vs Iowa
2012 DNP
2011 DNP
2010 #10 Wiscsonsin (+6) 31-30 at #13 Iowa 31-30
2009 Wisconsin vs #11 Iowa (+2.5) 20-10
2008 Wisconsin at Iowa (-4) 38-16
2007 #9 Wisconsin 17-13 vs Iowa (+7)

2017:
Wisconsin avg Big Ten score 32.5-15 six games vs NW, Neb, Pur, Mary, ILL, IU
Iowa avg Big Ten score 26-17 six games vs Penn St, Mich St, ILL, NW, Min, tOSU (avg score 20.2-16.2 five games without Ohio St)

UW O only scores 6.5 ppg more vs a weaker schedule.
Iowa D only allows 2 ppg vs a tougher schedule.
 
Wisconsin has alot of nice stats. Here are the areas that they are similar to Iowa (Big Ten game only). Difference is the other categories Badgers are statistically better than Iowa (strength of schedule plays a role).

Scoring O
#3 Wisconsin – #4 Iowa

Pass Eff O
#2 Wisconsin – #4 Iowa

Fewest Sacks allowed
#3 Wisconsin – #4 Iowa

Scoring D
#1 Wisconsin – #2 Iowa

Pass Eff D
#1 Wisconsin – #2 Iowa

D INTs
#1 Wisconsin – #2 Iowa

3rd Down Conv D
#5 Wisconsin - #4 Iowa

RZ D
#2 Wisconsin – #3 Iowa
 
1/3 on Thurs slate. Already on Temple at -2.5 and like it. Of the others, can we get one? Off today for Veterans day observance. Gonna start some digging.
 
CHSGTMD said:
Have a few ideas but nothing confirmed yet
Liking Texas State +6 and +190, Colorado St +6 and +190 and liking Baylor, TCU and Iowa State too.

Have some long shots that I am considering even though they stink at first glance.

ULL +20 and +850 @ Ole Miss with likely play on first half ML ULL.
Game means more to ULL and somewhat rivalry, statement game for ULL than Ole Miss.
ULL had first half lead on aTm before getting blown out in 2nd half.
Cajuns have some weapons to run, pass, score just not sure about stopping Ole Miss passing game.

Also looking at 1st half ML for Miss St, Iowa, and Maryland

UNM +19 and ML +750
UNM has lost 4 straight and has been blown out on the scoreboard.
This is the worst looking play but digging deeper most of UNM trouble has been turnovers like 4 at Utah St and 7 at Wyoming.
On stats they were close or even ahead of opponents in all four losses except outgained 526-322 at Fresno St.
aTm off loss to Auburn and Ole Miss then LSU in next two weeks.
If UNM can stop the turnovers and catch aTm flat think this could be close and pressure on aTm builds with possible UNM win.

Also looking at Coastal Carolina over Troy as the difference in the two teams is less than 17 points imo.
Click to expand...
ULL/Ole Miss

The 2 legged fox running around that game be sick
 
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