Week 11 ML Dogs

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Week 10 Results:
Central Mich +150
Temple +195
Mich St +265
Kansas St +150
La Monroe +265
Virginia +245
N Texas +103
Army +220
Iowa +850
Rutgers +185
Wash St +110
Ole Miss +145
Cincy +185
Oklahoma +105
UL La +205
Utah St +145
Wyoming +165
FIU +210

https://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/college-football/money-line/?date=20171104

18 Winners this week

On to Week 11, we are getting closer to the end of the year.

Good Luck Everyone
 
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ProV - just want say thanks. I really enjoy this thread and the mind meld that it derives. There has been a lot of winners in this weekly thread. To each of that contribute, hats off. You all do a great job at locating outliers. It is not easy picking these out and to you, kudos.
 
My first cursory look and resulting thoughts....

Illinois +8 - has IU packed it in yet? If so, this game may offer an opportunity.
Florida +8 - I don't think SC's offense is as high-powered as Mizzou's and if there's any pride left in this team from Gainesville it's possible.
Michigan State +17.5 - ordinarily I'm not sure I would fade OSU coming back home off a loss but they're defense has been shredded the past two weeks. I would expect MSU's defense to be in a much better state going into this game.
Baylor +7 - thoughts?? I admittedly under-estimated them last weekend and TTech plays zero defense.
FSU +19 - can they rally the troops at least one more time or are they done?
Virginia +10 - not really liking this one...Bobby Petrino off a bye-week and UVA made their bowl game with last week's win...not sure the edge will be in the favor of the dog here.
Texas State +6.5 - won 1st half with them last weekend and will have to look into this one further.
Colorado +10.5 - USC laying DD's with a defense that ranks an average 64th.
Coastal Carolina +16 - not really liking this one...CC looked absolutely crushed after that game at Arkansas ended and Troy still has a lot to play for.
South Alabama +10 - they won at Troy but I'm thinking Arky State a bit more formidable foe.
UAB +5.5 - they've been playing well, no?
Mississippi State +14.5 - Is it time for Alabama to come down to Earth? MSU has had some stinkers but they will be motivated to play in this one. Last weekend's unmotivated effort vs. UMass should give them some value.
Purdue +5 - anytime a Jeff Brohm coached team gets points, one should consider it.
ODU +7 - this line absolutely stinks....FIU just won BTB at Marshall and at home vs. UTSA and you're telling me they lay nothing more than one score against the Monarchs at home?? What??
Tennessee +8 - I'm pretty sure I like the Vols here....They will most certainly be able to establish the run game vs. Missou's defense and this line is, IMO, a bit of an over-reaction of Mizzou beating on a team that obviously has some issues internally and most likely quit competing during that game. For all the issues Butch Jones and the Vols have, they looked like they were far far away from throwing in the towel in that Southern Miss game. The Vols are still trying. PS - Will McBride came in and he ran that RPO well...the Vols have an answer to Guarantor's injury.
ECU + 7 - I can't possibly back these guys again.
Kansas +31 - no fucking way.
TCU +8 - Horned Frogs have the better defense.

:eatingchinese:
 
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booksbestfriend said:
ProV - just want say thanks. I really enjoy this thread and the mind meld that it derives. There has been a lot of winners in this weekly thread. To each of that contribute, hats off. You all do a great job at locating outliers. It is not easy picking these out and to you, kudos.
Click to expand...
Totally agree bbf and add my thanks too Colt for leading the way each week and keeping track of the weekly winners and thanks to all the other contributors.
I am going to try something different this week than the last two ... from my average list of possibilities I am going to try and keep the winners and not toss them aside lol
 
CHSGTMD said:
Totally agree bbf and add my thanks too Colt for leading the way each week and keeping track of the weekly winners and thanks to all the other contributors.
I am going to try something different this week than the last two ... from my average list of possibilities I am going to try and keep the winners and not toss them aside lol
Click to expand...
What a novel idea. Get to work. Popcorn emoji.
 
I just had a vision. A little more than 2 Saturdays ago, we saw the ACC and PAC-12's chances in the football playoffs take some hits with Clemson, Wazzou St., and Washington going down. The BIG-12's chances took a hit two Saturdays ago with TCU going down. Last weekend, we most likely saw a couple of BIG-10 team's chances blown.

I ask a question....is it the SEC's turn this coming weekend? Georgia will face their stiffest test, since the ND game, at Auburn. s--k, I think your upset call of Georgia may have been a week early. Alabama, I believe, is headed into a "tougher than most people think" match-up in Stark-Vegas. MSU's defense, when properly motivated, can match-up to Bama's offense IMO. LSU had a bit of running success with 151yds last Saturday and we know the dual-threat type of QB is what beats Bama. MSU should be able to run it a bit but can Fitzgerald keep from turning it over just enough to pull the upset in Starkville? One thing is for sure, after last Saturday's unmotivated effort, MSU will be seriously pumped and Dan Mullen is no worse than the 2nd best coach in the SEC. Man, I see things lining up poorly for the SEC front-runners this weekend. Rutt-Roh Raggy!

:pondering:
 
Best teams:

FIU +100, +368, +506, +203
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130

Teams with 3:

Arizona St +506, +711, +267
Boston College +639, +207, +199
Cal +410, +237, +639
Central Michigan +130, +292, +155
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226
Maryland +664, +416, +203
North Texas +236, +100, +105
Rutgers +100, +237, +176
UAB +263, +166, +371
Utah St +100, +148, +144

These odd are closing numbers from scoresandodds.com
 
JRock's back on the horse early this week! Love it.

I wasn't fading Georgia so much as I was thinking SC offered a decent challenge for them. Georgia is very good. Love the game at Auburn, no opinion right now though.

Alabama losing to Miss St? I have a shirt I used to wear when these two play. I ML'd Sly Croom vs Shula, that was a great win! Don't think I ML'd against Saban his first year, but I have a shirt I bought celebrating those two wins...called "back-to-back smack" with the scores. Since then the only smack that has been dished out has been by Tide ofcourse. Some of the games have been close mostly because Bama always plays them after LSU, so that has presented some letdown opportunity for Miss St to try and capitalize on. But LSU this year, I don't think was quite the 'super bowl' that game historically has been so I don't put much stock in an off effort from Bama forthcoming. I watched virtually none that that LSU-Bama game yesterday so just seeing the score I'm surprised it was that close. And the aTm game was closer than expected (although I'd say "game control" was firmly Bama's). The best angle is as you pointed out, the Miss St D matching up. That is where MSU has to put Bama on a level playing field, and maybe they can. But can MSU do enough on O? Upset? You got some bigger balls than me. Maybe I could play the spread, but I don't ML against these Alabama teams very often any longer. But I'm the same guy who didn't see the Iowa upset as possible nor Coastal Carolina almost pulling it off. Just one man's opinion, no better than your's.

I'll have some more things to offer later in the week. Until then I'll chime in here and there to keep the conversations going.
 
s--k said:
JRock's back on the horse early this week! Love it.

I wasn't fading Georgia so much as I was thinking SC offered a decent challenge for them. Georgia is very good. Love the game at Auburn, no opinion right now though.

Alabama losing to Miss St? I have a shirt I used to wear when these two play. I ML'd Sly Croom vs Shula, that was a great win! Don't think I ML'd against Saban his first year, but I have a shirt I bought celebrating those two wins...called "back-to-back smack" with the scores. Since then the only smack that has been dished out has been by Tide ofcourse. Some of the games have been close mostly because Bama always plays them after LSU, so that has presented some letdown opportunity for Miss St to try and capitalize on. But LSU this year, I don't think was quite the 'super bowl' that game historically has been so I don't put much stock in an off effort from Bama forthcoming. I watched virtually none that that LSU-Bama game yesterday so just seeing the score I'm surprised it was that close. And the aTm game was closer than expected (although I'd say "game control" was firmly Bama's). The best angle is as you pointed out, the Miss St D matching up. That is where MSU has to put Bama on a level playing field, and maybe they can. But can MSU do enough on O? Upset? You got some bigger balls than me. Maybe I could play the spread, but I don't ML against these Alabama teams very often any longer. But I'm the same guy who didn't see the Iowa upset as possible nor Coastal Carolina almost pulling it off. Just one man's opinion, no better than your's.

I'll have some more things to offer later in the week. Until then I'll chime in here and there to keep the conversations going.
Click to expand...
Bama showed some signs of wear and tear in the LSU game. For one, they managed 299yds of total offense against the 17th rated team in total defense. MSU ranks 7th. They also gave up a season high 151yds rushing. To put that in perspective, here are the total yds rushing allowed in games this season: 40, 71, 144, 40, 88, 71, 27, & 64. In that 144yd game, CSU scored 13pts in the 4th Qtr...I wonder how many of those 144yds came when Bama had their 2nd & 3rd string defense in the game during that 4th Qtr?? No way Bama had their 2nd string defense in vs. LSU.

MSU rates 43rd offensively but I wonder how much of that ranking has been skewed by pitiful performances on the road at Georgia & Auburn?? And at home vs. UMass and BYU?? They have also been sky high with shredding performances vs. LSU, Ky, La. Tech. MSU will be motivated this Saturday unlike any other time since the LSU game.

Lastly, have you seen initial consensus figures? 70% plus!! Public is going to lose in this game.

The conditions are ripe fellas!!

:eatingchinese:
 
booksbestfriend said:
ProV - just want say thanks. I really enjoy this thread and the mind meld that it derives. There has been a lot of winners in this weekly thread. To each of that contribute, hats off. You all do a great job at locating outliers. It is not easy picking these out and to you, kudos.
Click to expand...
It takes a village. Thanks to all. And I will get one started for NCAA bball too very interested in seeing how that turns out
 
s--k said:
Best teams:

FIU +100, +368, +506, +203
South Carolina +267, +115, +130, +130

Teams with 3:

Arizona St +506, +711, +267
Boston College +639, +207, +199
Cal +410, +237, +639
Central Michigan +130, +292, +155
Iowa St +4500, +180, +226
Maryland +664, +416, +203
North Texas +236, +100, +105
Rutgers +100, +237, +176
UAB +263, +166, +371
Utah St +100, +148, +144

These odd are closing numbers from scoresandodds.com
Click to expand...
I'm so glad you do this every week too. Amazing we have so many teams that have had multiple ML dog wins. Crazy
 
Just looking over spreads, there should be some values in the ACC and Big 12.

UVA over UL.
Baylor over Tex Tech.
TCU over OK.
Wake over Syr.
GT over VT.
U-La-La over Ole Miss would not surprise me.
TN could beat Mizzou, depending on team’s attitude.
UK over Vandy.
WVU over KSt.
Iowa St is in that role again. OKSt coming off Bedlam.
Can Iowa take Wisky from the ranks of the unbeaten.
UAB is dogged again. They are not playing over their heads, this is a good mid-major.
Col St in the dog role vs Boise.
Wyoming too.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Bama showed some signs of wear and tear in the LSU game. For one, they managed 299yds of total offense against the 17th rated team in total defense. MSU ranks 7th. They also gave up a season high 151yds rushing. To put that in perspective, here are the total yds rushing allowed in games this season: 40, 71, 144, 40, 88, 71, 27, & 64. In that 144yd game, CSU scored 13pts in the 4th Qtr...I wonder how many of those 144yds came when Bama had their 2nd & 3rd string defense in the game during that 4th Qtr?? No way Bama had their 2nd string defense in vs. LSU.

MSU rates 43rd offensively but I wonder how much of that ranking has been skewed by pitiful performances on the road at Georgia & Auburn?? And at home vs. UMass and BYU?? They have also been sky high with shredding performances vs. LSU, Ky, La. Tech. MSU will be motivated this Saturday unlike any other time since the LSU game.

Lastly, have you seen initial consensus figures? 70% plus!! Public is going to lose in this game.

The conditions are ripe fellas!!

:eatingchinese:
Click to expand...

Do you smelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll what the JRock is cookin'!?!

Alabama's LB depth from when the season started 4 of top 7 are out.
 
ProV1Colt said:
I'm so glad you do this every week too. Amazing we have so many teams that have had multiple ML dog wins. Crazy
Click to expand...

I look at FIU and the only ML I played on them was week 1 vs UCF, which didn;t go so well. I've been on them some ats, but have not benefited from their ML success unfortunately. But you can't be on every upset, I just try atleast and not be on the wrong side of an upset.
 
As much as I liked WVU last week, I like ISU this week...woulda been better if OSU had won obviously
 
s--k said:
Do you smelllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll what the JRock is cookin'!?!

Alabama's LB depth from when the season started 4 of top 7 are out.
Click to expand...
The beauty about J Pruitt's D is the star position. Essentially, the Safety drops into the box as a linebacker. Could blitz or drop. It is just a numbers game. Would not surprise me if the play hybrid nickel and dime all day, with 3 down lineman.
 
booksbestfriend said:
The beauty about J Pruitt's D is the star position. Essentially, the Safety drops into the box as a linebacker. Could blitz or drop. It is just a numbers game. Would not surprise me if the play hybrid nickel and dime all day, with 3 down lineman.
Click to expand...

I'll have to spend time and get more familiar with their personnel. Having more speed on the field is what facing alot of teams require these days. But Miss St gonna run power at them alot with QB and RB. Don't like to doubt Saban, Pruitt and Tide players very often. But this has potential to be intriguing game.
 
s--k said:
I'll have to spend time and get more familiar with their personnel. Having more speed on the field is what facing alot of teams require these days. But Miss St gonna run power at them alot with QB and RB. Don't like to doubt Saban, Pruitt and Tide players very often. But this has potential to be intriguing game.
Click to expand...

Bama struggles vs those mobile quarterbacks--see Mond

Bama's protection and offensive playcalling vs LSU were so disappointing. I wonder if that continues
 
Well I got some bad news. Historically speaking, this setup in Stark-Vegas this Saturday does not look good for the Bulldogs. There was one last bit of info I was hoping would back my gut up and that was some SDQL trends. Have you guys ever dabbled in that stuff? I put in some code that basically asked what were the ATS & straight up W/L records of home dogs who 1) allow an average of less than 300ypg of total defense and 2) for the month of November. The numbers came back shockingly 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS. One of the games was last year's Lousiville @ BC matchup which was a blowout. However, knowing last year's BC offense was brutal, I did not let these results deter me. I added a sampling of total offense >420ypg which would weed out the 2016 BC-like offenses of history. Hoping for the best I sampled it but the numbers unfortunately did not get much better. The records were 1-7 straight up and 4-4 ATS. The sampling of games went all the way back 11 years ago to 2006. I think that's a pretty fair assessment and, considering how much I've touted MSU, I wanted to make sure you all knew the stats.

There's still a few more things I can throw at the SDQL but, for now, I'm cooling off on my upset pick in Starkville this Saturday.....FWIW.
 
This is crazy!!! I am admittedly a novice at this SDQL stuff but I put in the exact opposite...I ran the trends for a Road Favorite of >14 line and the opponent's total defense is an average of less than 300ypg and you will not believe the record!!

1-24 straight up baby!!

I'm going to try and get some help to see if I can verify I am doing this correctly but if it turns out I did, then holy shit!
 
OK guys....here's the deal. Neither of the trends I stated in posts 27 and 28 were correct. Throw them out. I can confirm this one is correct though...

Road Favorites, with opening lines of -14 or more, playing a dog with a positive average scoring margin of >15pts (MSU scores 33.9ppg and gives up 18ppg) are a historically bad 0-12 straight up.

This trend is confirmed...here are the games and dates....it's interesting to note that this trend was active just last week on Iowa....before that, the last time it hit was last year Louisville @ Houston.

trend1.jpg


LET'S MAKE US SOME FUCKING MONEY THIS SATURDAY BOYZ!!!!

:moneytoss::moneybill:
 
of course SC is on there for a straight up loss as a 14+ pt fav... and of course its to an option team
 
"
Oh my God...I fucked up guys. I'm still learning some commands in the SDQL and misinterpreted what the "margin" was. LOL...what a heel. Hope no one had already placed their MSU bets. I'm really sorry now and will chill on the posts until I get my sh*t together. It's all wrong. Margin is actually the scoring margin of each individual game list in that pic. I was trying to enter the average scoring margin of the dogs leading into each game. Of course it's going to come out undefeated because it only returns the game scores that are >15pts. Jesus.....

PLEASE IGNORE POSTS 27, 28,& 29. I'LL GO HIDE UNDER MY ROCK NOW.

:doink:
 
ok here JRock, appreciate your effort and interested to hear more about SDQL when you got it
thanks for correcting it quickly and know we have all spent time under that rock lol but time for you to get out and know we appreciate your work :cheers3:
 
No sweat Jrock, it's the thought that counts and we're thankful for the effort and time spent :) we get that you're trying to figure some complicated tooks out, i'm excited for the great stuff you'll come up with
 
vk said:
Not capping but smunkind of jumps off the page at you after watching the navy secondary vs temple.
Click to expand...

Agreed. SMU has been nice team this year. Navy in rough patch. Temple is transitioning into a pass oriented O and they had that success, SMU has better weapons in a more experienced system. I suppose recent history is a concern...Navy won 75-31 last year (they actually trailed 21-24) and 55-14 2 years ago. But SMU is better this year and Navy not. Seemed to me that SMU put alot into that game last week, can't guess where their heads would be - but wouldn't surprise if they were a little flat. They still have division race to play for. I could see myself taking Ponies here.
 
I'm gonna dig into Akron & Bowling Green tonight.
Maybe we can start the week off w/ a ML Dog.
Tuesday Night MACtion
 
Again I'm sorry for all that F.U.B.A.R. yesterday fellas. I got so damn mad at myself I just shut it down and crashed. After sleeping on it, I fiddled around with it some more this am and here is something that should interest you. Please allow me to make it up to you guys.....The screenshot was so big I had to split it into two pics so here is the first one. Basically, speaking in pseudocode, I wanted to find out what home dogs were active this week that had a total defense allowed less than their own total offense produced. That would make sense, right? We want to back a team playing good on both sides of the ball.

In the green circle within the the first pic, "HD" stands for home dog, "tA" stands for team average and in this case the team is the home dog, o stands for opposition so "(o:rushing yards+opassing yards)" is the total defense of the home dog, "(rushing yards+passing yards)" is the total offense of the home dog, and "month = 11" stands for November.

This scenario has an overall record of 102-226 and ATS record of 151-168-9....not too great but let's look a bit further in the 2nd post....

trend2.jpg
 

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You'll see in the blue circles this trend, even though it has not historically performed well, was hot the last 14 games of Nov. last year. It went 11-2-1 ATS and 9-5 straight up. The home dogs it is active on this week are also circled for your review. It's probably not the end-all / beat-all but I thought it may be worth some consideration while you cap your games. Peace.

trend3.jpg
 
I'll give you credit for digging for edges JRock. So what else are you weighing as to deciding if you play on those teams in the screen shot?
 
s--k said:
I'll give you credit for digging for edges JRock. So what else are you weighing as to deciding if you play on those teams in the screen shot?
Click to expand...
I’m waiting to see which ones you like then tailing you brother! LOL!

Seriously, I’d like your input. I also am going to run more sims when time allows by adding in the scoring margins. There are no D8 style 1st half plays this week no dogs qualify that I see. The only one I think I’ll be on for sure right now is Tennessee. I watched them the last two weekends and they are far from quitting IMO.
 
A bunch of small dogs can win, but I don't look for those. See some larger dogs I will play ats that could maybe win, but don't have the confidence to put money on that they will (such as Miss St for instance).

Baylor +237
I'd probably rather just take them ats and be happy with the cover even if they won. Not sure they are really much worse than TT honestly, so kinda saying something about both BU and TT there. TT is rough place right now, lost 4 straight and last week was a tough one for them. Played at Cowboy stadium so no homefield adv.

Virginia +310
At this point I'm surprised LV would garner such a high line. LV has lost 3 straight as a favorite, their only win in that stretch was as a dog at FSU. So while they should be favored, the price seems high. UVA has only lost by a TD in each the last 2 years as well. 2016 32-25 (UVA led 17-7 3rd and led in the 4th) - 2015 38-31 (24-24 4th qrt). UVA is better, LV is not this year.

SMU +170
A little lower odds than I normally look for, but SMU quite possibly the better team here. It is going to be a tough one emotionally to get off the mat from the UCF game just because they really put alot into it. If they play as well as they did last week they will win this game.
And if Navy plays as poor as they did last week SMU will surely win this game. But you don't know what team will show up week-to-week sometimes and something tells me Navy will be better and SMU may not be as good this week.

Iowa +358
The biggest concern here obviously is the hangover from the OSU win. So that aside, if they play half as good as they did last week Wisconsin is losing this game. If you watched quarters 1-3 UW at IU or if you watched the UW at ILL games you would be hard pressed to think Wisconsin is among the top 20 teams in the country. But they do what they do, and they keep doing it.

San Jose St +876
Spartans have been bad all year. But this is just ridiculous to me to see Nevada a 3TD fav over another MWC team, even if it is SJ. SJ sucked last year too and they won this game 14-10.

Texas St +195
Ga State almost a TD road fav? They barely won last week vs GaSouthern. Texas St played better than expected last week and led at halftime. Just 2 games ago they dominated Coastal Car. Home finale, senior night.

East Carolina +184
ECU O should be able to do what they normally do here, move the ball, get yards, and hopefully however...not turn it over. Tulane has really squandered their early season momentum and now lost 4 straight, two as favorites. Expect Tulane running game to do well here, but I wouldn't automatically expect them to win. Either team could win this game.

Purdue +195
NW has really turned their season around and give them alot of credit for that, they are on track. Purdue hasn't be awful their last several games. Did what you would hope they would vs ILL, played good enough for most of the game to beat Nebraska, their D was strong vs Rutgers, but were done in by turnovers, grossly outgained by Wisconsin but fought tough and kept themselves in the game and overcame alot of turnovers vs Min to pull that game out. Sindelar going here and he isn't the dual threat that Blough was, so they become a little easier to defend. Probably don't want to bet on Boilers to win this game, but wouldn't be surprised if they did.

Colorado St +184
Boise is humming right now and CSU has been off. CSU D remains the biggest liability here. CSU has 2 conf losses, Boise 0 so Rams hopes at the division are slim right now. Two of the last 3 years it has been a 1 score game, the other time it was a 31 pt Bronco blowout. Other than the home opener at the new stadium, this game had to be circled in the CSU meeting rooms preseason. We'll probably get the best CSU has to offer, will it be enough?
 
Really like the TXst one after reading it is senior night there and as you said they have been playing better. Purdue is also interesting.
 
Went ahead and bought my first scratch-off lotto ticket for the week since I don't see any 1st Half plays....might as well ride the trends in post #39 and added the Vols to 'em.

3, 4, 5, & 6-teamer RRs with these teams:
  1. 11/8/2017 7:00 PM College Football 108 Ohio* +155 vs Toledo
  2. 11/10/2017 10:30 PM College Football 122 Stanford* +180 vs Washington U
  3. 11/11/2017 12:00 PM College Football 162 Iowa State* +215 vs Oklahoma State
  4. 11/11/2017 7:00 PM College Football 178 Mississippi State* +450 vs Alabama
  5. 11/11/2017 7:30 PM College Football 189 Tennessee U* +335 vs Missouri
  6. 11/11/2017 10:30 PM College Football 218 Colorado State* +190 vs Boise State
Risking $21.00 (42 parlays at $0.50) To Win $3,671.76

:tiphat:
 
I'm gonna pull a JRock tonight & tomorrow's teams.
Round Robin:
Zips +355
BG +245
Ohio +155
Kent St +1050
C Mich +110
 
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