Week 11 Lookahead Lines and Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
highest o/u of all time at 63.5. and I love the over. one team will hit 40
other initial thoughts:
TNF: no feel, line seems about right. Rodgers getting points is tempting
-Atl -3 looks like a good play; dallas sucks and the eagles made them look better than they are.
-no line up yet in Cincy/Balty but im looking long and hard at the ravens if Lamar Jackson is starting
-love getting 3.5 points at a home team, but not sure I can bet Detroit right now. Although I do like to buy low.
-Tennessee and Indy is a low key great game; both offenses looking good. Tennessee as a dog is tempting
-Hate short road favs, but Washington sucks. What a crazy win they had this week, but Houston should handle their business
- Steelers are clicking and the Jags aren't scaring anyone right now
-I should call a hotline for myself just bc I want to play this, but Arizona looks great. young guys with a rare chance to win a game. at least they have some fight in them, Oaklands towel is thrown in. Any chance to bet against Oak at under a TD you kind of have to take right now, even if its Arizona
-a LAC/NO moneyline parlay is as square as it gets, but it is hard to see that losing
-love Chicago. prime time, a chance to make up for week 1 SNF, team is really playing well.
other initial thoughts:
TNF: no feel, line seems about right. Rodgers getting points is tempting
-Atl -3 looks like a good play; dallas sucks and the eagles made them look better than they are.
-no line up yet in Cincy/Balty but im looking long and hard at the ravens if Lamar Jackson is starting
-love getting 3.5 points at a home team, but not sure I can bet Detroit right now. Although I do like to buy low.
-Tennessee and Indy is a low key great game; both offenses looking good. Tennessee as a dog is tempting
-Hate short road favs, but Washington sucks. What a crazy win they had this week, but Houston should handle their business
- Steelers are clicking and the Jags aren't scaring anyone right now
-I should call a hotline for myself just bc I want to play this, but Arizona looks great. young guys with a rare chance to win a game. at least they have some fight in them, Oaklands towel is thrown in. Any chance to bet against Oak at under a TD you kind of have to take right now, even if its Arizona
-a LAC/NO moneyline parlay is as square as it gets, but it is hard to see that losing
-love Chicago. prime time, a chance to make up for week 1 SNF, team is really playing well.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
I lean against you on indy and dallas.
Tennessee seems to be coming into their own right now. You can make the case that this is the perfect time to fade them off a huge home win. Do they get high on their own fumes now? Indy has been a fun team lately but I still think they have holes on defense. Eh, I don't hate your side as much after talking it out.
Dallas though, that team is not good. They were gifted the game sunday night. Atlantas home offense is pretty great and dallas isn't gonna be able to score 30+ to keep up with them
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Remember Chiefs/Rams is in Mexico City at over 7000 ft elevation, Rams are practicing in Colorado Springs this week while several on their team including Goff are still evacuated. Plenty of distraction there. Defenses should be gassed no matter how much practicing at elevation they get.
aplous
Donkey Hater
Bet the over for everything you've got. Gurley will go absolutely nuts if McVay stays committed to running the ball. Chiefs pass rush looked real good lately and I think we can pressure Goff but we can't stop anyone on the ground (except Mixon apparently). Really excited to watch. My book has 64 -105.
I‘ve been fading the Tits off a big win since 2016 after they upset KC in Arrowhead
Love the Eagles. The O will take a step up by featuring Josh Adams more and he can do well vs Saints run D
Gonna stop trying to bet on Jags games i must be too biased or optimistic
You, biased? Nevvvvvver.
Almost as unbiased as you, Rainman 
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Rams D might be the worst I've seen in the 46 years of being a fan of their's. Wade Phillips may have passed his time. I'm watching opposing OC's and HC's chuckle all game long.
If it wasn't for McVays offense, this team would have lost to Minnesota, Green Bay and Seattle twice. That would make Rams 5-5 and that's what I think they are. 9-1 isn't indicative of how poor they've played defensively.
If it wasn't for McVays offense, this team would have lost to Minnesota, Green Bay and Seattle twice. That would make Rams 5-5 and that's what I think they are. 9-1 isn't indicative of how poor they've played defensively.
So much hype for the D coming into the season
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Wade's 3-4 doesn't work with this personnel. There are no LB's on this team wanting to stop the run nor are they in position to do so. Littleton is more of an OLB and Mark Barron is doing nothing at LB. He's too slow to be a safety. Unless Phillips makes a drastic change which he's shown to be unwilling to do, they'll be lucky to make it to the conference championship.
Having said that, the other side of this that's making it work is this creative offense. Rams wont drop off with any significance with Kupp out. Reynolds is plenty capable and the 2 TE's are good enough and getting into the mix more. If you haven't been on the low Rams team totals, what are you waiting on?
Any idea of what the record is of the Rams TT over?
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
I'm pretty sure the only 2 tt unders were vs the Broncos and Packers. They juiced up their tt in the Packers game to 33ish. Rams scored 29 with Gurley stopping before the endzone. Broncos game was in bad weather. Every other game went over.
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
@D-Woww why do you have any faith in lamar jackson? Also where do you see TEN's offense looking good besides this weekend (which i can't explain)
I'm not sure you can lay any points with ARI even if Gruden's starting at QB, similar reasoning with ATL after watching them get absolutely smoked by CLE. Trying not to overreact to that, but feel like you're kinda doing same after the tough loss your boys took even if DAL was ahead the entire game
I'm not sure you can lay any points with ARI even if Gruden's starting at QB, similar reasoning with ATL after watching them get absolutely smoked by CLE. Trying not to overreact to that, but feel like you're kinda doing same after the tough loss your boys took even if DAL was ahead the entire game
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Played KC/LAR o63.5, Ten +2 and Arz -4 at reduced vig. There are a couple others I like but those three jumped out right away. I get the fade Ten off of big game angle, but they were off a big win @Dal last week too. Beating NE is obviously a bigger deal but this is an important game for them in the division so expect them to be focused. Lean Rams in the big game, but favor the total. Rams have Saints to worry about while KC has some breathing room now.
Field = obstacle to over?
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
cant be worse than flacco, thast basically my mindset there
Tennessees offense has looked good for 2 weeks in a row; the rb tandem has been doing its job and corey davis is a legit number 1. they do lack WR depth, but they are getting it done.
I am actually coming around on not taking Atlanta and will likely not put that bet in. if Chubb tore that run d apart, you have to think zeke is gonna do the same. Although that offense does kill at home
Not at all a dig, I say this with all respect, I think you often look for too many reasons not to make a bet; sometimes there is no perfect bet to be made and you have to just put aside a stat or a trend that doesn't favor your side. I am very confident betting on Zona and I don't think there is a better bet on the board. Yeah, zona sucks. but they have played better 2 weeks in a row since getting rid of the worst OC in the league. They are going back to Fitz and getting Johnson involved more and using him in ways he should be used. This is a young team that knows its crappy and knows they only have a few chances at getting a W this year; this is one of them. They at least are trying and look somewhat competent under Leftwich. Oakland threw in the towel on the year and I can't see them getting up for a road game in Arizona. You look at Zona as a team too bad to wager on; I look at it as Zona's badness is getting us a gift of fading the Raiders at less than a TD (on the road nonetheless), which we won't see many more times this year. If Nick Mullens and Pierre Garcon can pick the defense apart, I trust Rosen-Fitz-Johnson to do so just as much.
GL with your plays, and you did talk me off atlanta
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
so your motivation for playing a team who essentially just lost its season is that you hope that an UDFA rookie RB can be competent? I don't see it. Adams has been the best runner on the team for a few weeks now, but Doug doesn't seem to have any desire to feature him. Its just how he is; he wont get more than 12 carries and that is a high estimate.
New Orleans is going to score 50.
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
I mean stranger things have happened, but not much stranger. they are 2 back and sure they play the skins twice, but they also have one of the hardest schedules in the league going forward, play at NO and at LAR and literally have zero secondary. They pretty much have to win out, or lose one of those road games and no other games, including the 2 vs Washington, at dallas and a home game vs Houston.
Its over, man. Honestly at this point I think Dallas has a better shot at the division if Washington falters
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
We still don't even know where the game is being played
GWarner27
Meatballin' in Celtics Stadium
@D-Woww i think you're right that i have found in my personal gambling career that more bets is a dangerous endeavor, but i think that holds water in the most efficient market in american sports
Funny i talked you off ATL, i don't think i'm playing DAL because the good defense may not matter as much as I don't see ATL struggling to score like they did vs CLE and i don't have faith in Dak keeping up on the scoreboard. Zeke will need a lot of big plays to match what Matt Ryan will do through the air and i think that's asking a lot
RE: Lamar Jackson, i don't expect him to be better than Flacco at all until i've seen it happen
RE: TENN, the Dallas MNF game was pretty much a gift and my takeaway was based on their talented defense not the other side of the ball
RE: Arizona, it's not about the team not being bet-able, everyone is in a certain situation. My problem is betting the biggest underdog this season to win a game by more than a FG the week after is not as simple as you're making it sound. OAK hasn't given up, they are still playing for jobs and the fake punt on the opening possession demonstrates to me that team will do a lot of unpredictable stuff making it even more difficult to bet against them. Asking ARI to win is a tall task, then to cover -4 is even more challenging so it's OAK or nothing for moi
Funny i talked you off ATL, i don't think i'm playing DAL because the good defense may not matter as much as I don't see ATL struggling to score like they did vs CLE and i don't have faith in Dak keeping up on the scoreboard. Zeke will need a lot of big plays to match what Matt Ryan will do through the air and i think that's asking a lot
RE: Lamar Jackson, i don't expect him to be better than Flacco at all until i've seen it happen
RE: TENN, the Dallas MNF game was pretty much a gift and my takeaway was based on their talented defense not the other side of the ball
RE: Arizona, it's not about the team not being bet-able, everyone is in a certain situation. My problem is betting the biggest underdog this season to win a game by more than a FG the week after is not as simple as you're making it sound. OAK hasn't given up, they are still playing for jobs and the fake punt on the opening possession demonstrates to me that team will do a lot of unpredictable stuff making it even more difficult to bet against them. Asking ARI to win is a tall task, then to cover -4 is even more challenging so it's OAK or nothing for moi
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
@GWarner27 all good. solid reasoning, its why we have these discussions. I hate how much I love Arizona lol. I haven't locked anything in yet either. I hate that 69% of the public is agreeing with me. Its gonna be Zona or stay the F away for me though, def not playing Oakland
Yea the Raiders sometimes come out strong and have some fun but what does a fake punt say about their willingness to fight in the fourth quarter?
Public percentages can be overrated D, I mean maybe more of the money is on Oak? Anyways its not something to base a play on its just nice to happen to be on the oppo of
Public percentages can be overrated D, I mean maybe more of the money is on Oak? Anyways its not something to base a play on its just nice to happen to be on the oppo of
D-Woww
Old Man Dan
completely overrated for sure. I use it as a tool, but not as a be all end all. I do love being on the lesser % side, but only if I genuinely see it happening, not just to fade the public for the hell of it. for instance last week, cincy was a huge fade the public play but I just couldn't do it based on the matchup...whereas I absolutely saw a reality where Baker tore apart Atlantas defense at home, so I did take that one.
Lloyd Braun
Pretty much a regular
Zeke
Big Dick and Average Size Boat
Only if it wins
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Sounds like some players are sayimg they wont play on that field
Bet it gets moved to LA
Bet it gets moved to LA
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Jordy nelson out for oakland it looks like
So their top 4 receiving targets are now cook, bryant, richard
So their top 4 receiving targets are now cook, bryant, richard
P-Unit
Beacon of Calmness
I've been saying this for weeks. He sucks. If you watch the games, other teams go out of their way to pick on him. Vikes did it. NO did it too. KC is going to pick him apart...
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Only things I took away from the fake punt are that it was by far their best play in the game and they would’ve scored 3 total points otherwise
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
Pit/Jack ... yes, I know Jack should be on everyone’s list of teams to avoid .... talk about a team that is sky high vs a team dead in the gutter... I hate to say it but that does not bode well for my Steelers. Hoping this gets to +7 at which point I will bet Jack and hope Pitt wins by 3.
I’ll play devils advocate with you here about LaMar, C-Man...
Why is a guy who never had a year above 60% completion rate in college going to succeed at the next level...with this group of coaches/skill set guys, when AT BEST 60% completions in the NFL makes you the 32nd best QB in the league?
https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2018/passing.htm#passing::10
C-MAN
Pretty much a regular
I hear you Scarf, but Flacco does not extend the field and he is a statue in the pocket. This hurts the ravens running game too. LJ is a dual threat which I believe will open up some opportunities for this offense, which actually has some weapons, especially against the Cincy defense. Could be wrong but I’m willing to bet on it. I might think differently if they were playing a stronger defensive team. Just feel like Flacco holds them back even against mediocre defenses.
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
I suppose the words "Michael Vick" dont resonate. Vick was never a high percentage QB, but won.
