week 11 Games I really like a bunch

[spottie2935]

Wyoming +5.5
Wyoming D has given up only 8 rushing TD's on the season playing a much tougher schedule than UNLV. UNLV has scores 28 rushing TD's on the season. I do like what UNLV has done this season but I think Wyoming should be -3 or more with D.

Texas Tech +3.5
This is the first time Since Oregon (+4.5 home dog) they have been dogs! If you question their schedule take a look. 8 out of 9 times as chalk and this Kansas team comes in off back to back upsets. KU should be dogs again here.

Michigan -5.
Win or lose they just are elite and Penn St has so many covers last 20 games or so. I think this line should be -7 or higher.

Vanderbilt +14
I know i know how they look bad and all but SC has very little winning on their season. Add to that only -17 to Furman. Well I dont watch Furman but that line give credibility to Vandy here. I give the nod to Vandy getting their 2nd cover on the season.

CU +10.5 I discussed this in that thread.

Auburn +2.5
Arkansas not a good team

Cuse +2.5 +103
Pitt has to win by 3+ only 1 FBS win on the season. Syracuse spot to wake up.

Georgia Tech +14.5

Tulsa +23.5

Old Dom +13.5

Wake +2

Baylor +21

Wash St+1.5

Cincy +2.5

E.CAR +7.5

Marsh +2.5

Duke +14

USC +15

11-7

 

[spottie2935]

The following favorites are in bad situations this week

LOU LAF LOSS
UNLV WIN
ILL LOSS
S.FLA LOSS
GEO ST LOSS
FAU LOSS
HOU LOSS
KAN LOSS
MARY WIN
CLEM WIN
ARZ LOSS

3-8

 

[spottie2935]

tonight

S.Miss +9.5 no juice.

L.LAF has a bad D and is a favorite. L.Laf next game dog at Troy. They have regressed this season and are a target on my fade list as a Favorite and this situation is a good set up for them to lose. S.Miss isnt the most balanced team but they should have success scoring points. Everyone other team has scored on L.Laf so I am counting on their D to struggle again.

here is the data on L.Laf tonight

KillerSports.com

killersports.com

here is the data on Thursday night home favorites

KillerSports.com

killersports.com

both the dog and under are strong plays

 

[M.W.]

The following favorites are in bad situations this week

LOU LAF
UNLV
ILL
S.FLA
GEO ST
FAU
HOU
KAN
MARY
CLEM
ARZ

What are the bad situations for FAU and Clemson?

 

[M.W.]

The following favorites are in bad situations this week

LOU LAF
UNLV
ILL
S.FLA
GEO ST
FAU
HOU
KAN
MARY
CLEM
ARZ

Arizona is also in a couple highly positive situations. What’s the negative?

 

[spottie2935]

previous dog, this week favorite, next week dog

top 25 team that has no credibility of being favorites.

Arizona has been running under the radar and under valued all season.

This is only the 3rd game they will have been favored now -10, thats a big difference.

Next week at Utah.

The best situation is line value in which a dog team becomes a favorite in the current week and the following week a big away dog game. These team are excellent dogs but bad favorites.

KillerSports.com

killersports.com

 

[spottie2935]

What are the bad situations for FAU and Clemson?

Clemson has UNC next week if they are not a dog next week they will be a short favorite. They are not a great team this year in regression after a few season being elite. In my opinion -14 is way too much.

HF next line>=-7

KillerSports.com

killersports.com

 

[spottie2935]

FAU

favorite teams that will be home dogs the following week do not have good ROI's. The either are a bad team or they have a big home game on deck.

Tulane is heading to FAU next week.

just a general data mine shows this 40% win rate for FAU the chalk

KillerSports

killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com

 

[M.W.]

FAU

favorite teams that will be home dogs the following week do not have good ROI's. The either are a bad team or they have a big home game on deck.

Tulane is heading to FAU next week.

just a general data mine shows this 40% win rate for FAU the chalk

KillerSports

killersports.com

KillerSports

killersports.com

Thanks!

 

[M.W.]

Here's one for you:

KillerSports

killersports.com

 

[M.W.]

Here's one for you:

KillerSports

killersports.com

It gets better. You can't just search for Terry Bowden to get his results from all schools because the database doesn't have him listed as ULM's coach in 2021 and 2022. So one must run a separate search to get his results at Aub and Akron:

KillerSports.com

killersports.com

 

[spottie2935]

One can make a living of favorites that will be home dogs the following week. the hard part of that is knowing the next weeks lines

Team is that situation are around 40% win rate. I'd take 60% winners.

Now in order to better guesstimate the next weeks line lets assume to give our next week line some cushion.

So instead of trying to predict ALL teams that will be home dogs lets try to predict those games in which the home team will be favorites >-7. If a team will be close to that -7 line we can then eliminate that game.

HF and next HD hits at 40%

well this

HF and n:H and n:line>-7 hits 45% even still 45% fading the favorite is still a nice profit and the closer one can predict a line to be closer to the dog the better the ROI.