Odds
Week 11 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter VirginiaCavs
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I’m shocked Steelers dogs at home. IMO Steelers are just better. They now have an offense that can put up points with big plays, those 2 big monsters on outside gonna open things up for Warren, Harris, and freiermuth. And there no question Steelers d is far and away better than ravens. I always take the points in this series if I can get a fg but I don’t think I need them here. Steelers winning this game,
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
to see Tomlin locked in at halftime down 3 with his shades on talking about "executing all the technical details very well" that's a mindset you can tell he's running a machine over there
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Bills -1.5.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Are the jets seriously favs? Is this some alternate universe where ppl keep buying the jets even tho they show us week after week they are dog shit?? This line is backwards. Colts should be laying points not getting them! Unless they plsn on starting AR Flacco will pick them apart.
The past 11 times (small sample size) a team has fired their coach mid-season and then won the next game (straight up)
This is how they have done 'against the spread' the following week (2 weeks after the firing)
2015
Miami -4.5 vs Houston W
Tennessee +4 vs Carolina L
2016
Jacksonville +5.5 @ Indy W
2018
Green Bay +5.5 @ Chicago L
2019
Washington +10 vs Sn Francisco W
2020
Houston +4 @ Tennessee L
Atlanta -1 vs Detroit L
Detroit +9.5 vs Green Bay W
2021
Denver -3 vs Philadelphia W
2022
Indianapolis +6.5 vs Philadelphia W
2023
Raiders +1.5 vs NY Jets W
The data suggests that New Orleans could have a second straight 'spirited effort' in them
This is how they have done 'against the spread' the following week (2 weeks after the firing)
2015
Miami -4.5 vs Houston W
Tennessee +4 vs Carolina L
2016
Jacksonville +5.5 @ Indy W
2018
Green Bay +5.5 @ Chicago L
2019
Washington +10 vs Sn Francisco W
2020
Houston +4 @ Tennessee L
Atlanta -1 vs Detroit L
Detroit +9.5 vs Green Bay W
2021
Denver -3 vs Philadelphia W
2022
Indianapolis +6.5 vs Philadelphia W
2023
Raiders +1.5 vs NY Jets W
The data suggests that New Orleans could have a second straight 'spirited effort' in them
Appreciate this info.
Colts go back to AR
Spurrier's Brain
Fun ‘n’ Gun
Before that move, I was really considering Colts + 3 1/2. Now I'm wary.
AR is unbettable for me. He sucks. He relies so much on the total variable of whether any of his bombs hit. Typically the guy can barely complete a pass.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Makes me like the colts far less tho. Flacco had to face minny and bills, what did they expect? AR vs jets d could be ugly
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I feel like a trader being the commanders leading bandwagon rider but I think they starting to slide and Philly is starting to put it together. Washington could really use a healthy McAlister tonight, brown roasted them last season and not sure there any kind of scheme magic Quinn can do here. Sure he could decide to take brown away but then the run game and smith kill them. Feel like Quinn has to make it a point to take Barkley away, they can’t just have him controlling the game with 20+ rushes and 120+ yards. That gonna leave a lot of holes to exploit. Hurts gonna have room to run and his WRs are gonna have 1 on 1 all night and wash corners can’t hold up to that! These feels like a real problem for Washington, they gonna need Daniels to put on a Superman cape to keep this close and I just don’t see it.
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
daniels barely ran last week
announcers in the 1H going into halftime:
"..and they haven't even shown them daniels yet!"
also Pit barely beat them sunday with a long bomb. i had Pit +200 at the beginning of that last td drive and was already counting it as a loss then boom russ hit one of his moon balls
fave in NFC East has cleaned the floor with the dog last couple years but u can't look at the last couple years because now u got daniels. were they saving him on sunday saving him for today?
will philly 2nd division game in a row after 3 days rest be bad for them? that is a spot 7-0 to the over L2 seasons. total seems high for that reason. i think winner will get 34 tonight
announcers in the 1H going into halftime:
"..and they haven't even shown them daniels yet!"
also Pit barely beat them sunday with a long bomb. i had Pit +200 at the beginning of that last td drive and was already counting it as a loss then boom russ hit one of his moon balls
fave in NFC East has cleaned the floor with the dog last couple years but u can't look at the last couple years because now u got daniels. were they saving him on sunday saving him for today?
will philly 2nd division game in a row after 3 days rest be bad for them? that is a spot 7-0 to the over L2 seasons. total seems high for that reason. i think winner will get 34 tonight
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I expect Philly can score basically any way they want here. I think Daniels has to run but he been doing that less and less. Philly corners have looked pretty good, think it gonna have to be a lot of Daniels legs and Ertz for Washington. Ertz seems poetic enough coming back to have big game vs former team! Some tight ends have had good numbers vs Philly of late. Def like the ertz prop. Not sure on Daniels and his legs? Really feel like Philly wins this by 7+ and I’m the biggest commanders fan around! lol. Washington gonna have to dedicate a lot to keep Barkley from controlling the game and that just leaves holes all over commanders d imo,
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
thats a really solid outlook. respect.
i see wash getting 23 which they've only failed to do twice thia year (before letting daniels loose) and see philly getting 28 (especially if they gonna win/cover) so whatever happens after that there's your game whatever intangibles and situational stuff comes into play
i see wash getting 23 which they've only failed to do twice thia year (before letting daniels loose) and see philly getting 28 (especially if they gonna win/cover) so whatever happens after that there's your game whatever intangibles and situational stuff comes into play
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
*they washington did win with 18 against bears so correct my statement on that
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
alls i know is my Pit +3.5 just didn't feel safe the entire time last week and i was regretting fading daniels. still haven't made up my mind on anything other than over lean
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
did take brian robinson o47.5
i had 45.5 queued up and it changed to 47.5
what the
fuck it hes getting 60
i had 45.5 queued up and it changed to 47.5
what the
fuck it hes getting 60
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
TNF for the NFC East has traditionally been very good for dog/under I'm fairly certain. I know it has been for the dog
Both teams been racking up points for the most part against less than stellar defenses notwithstanding PIT last week
Could be one of those that Philly wins but doesn't cover, prop or two likely the only I play tonight
Both teams been racking up points for the most part against less than stellar defenses notwithstanding PIT last week
Could be one of those that Philly wins but doesn't cover, prop or two likely the only I play tonight
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
nfc east on 3 day rest thursdays small sample size twelve games since 2015
only one su dog win but 6-6 ats 5-1 ats L6
9-3 ou 5-0 ou totals greater than 45
8-0 ou when fave score 24+
only one su dog win but 6-6 ats 5-1 ats L6
9-3 ou 5-0 ou totals greater than 45
8-0 ou when fave score 24+
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
went mclovin o56.5
hes gone 63,86,128,102 L4 vs eagles
shopped the line and fd has this 5 yards under rest of market wtf up with that
hes gone 63,86,128,102 L4 vs eagles
shopped the line and fd has this 5 yards under rest of market wtf up with that
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I went pretty hard on hurts, brown, smith along w alternates. Hurts passing and rushing. Only thing I played commanders related was Daniels rush and Ertz ov 32.5.. I really hate this, god knows I been banging the commanders drum loud as anyone but fuck, McAllister still not suiting up? wtf you trade for a mfer who can’t play for? They need him badly here. They gonna have to commit to 8 to even slow down the run game. I can’t imagine Quinn gonna just let Barkley and hurts legs own the game. Problem is you put those corners out on islands vs brown and smith it gonna be a fireworks show. Unless they can get pressure, hurts doesn’t exactly get rid the ball quickly, not sure he very good at seeing it before it happens. Commanders do get pressure and maybe that they’re saving grabs cause I just see all kinds of mismatches for Philly here. Even Philly corners who I used to think suck are now young and grading out really well, not like Washington has much in way of outside weapons after McLaurin. Yes last weeks game was close but it was another game where Daniels completion percentage was like 50%, far cry from the 70s-80s he was putting up to begin the year. Kingsbury offenses been known to get figured out as the season goes on. I just can’t look at these rosters and honestly say it close. Imo eagles by 10+
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
started last season 10-1
since then 8-8
during that last 8-8 they've gone 1-4 vs winning teams, allowing 42,33,32,33 points in the four losses. the one win vs "winning team" was W3 vs Saints 15-12
haven't played winning team since W4 Bucs (loss 33-16)
2daBank
Voice of Reason
started last season 10-1
since then 8-8
during that last 8-8 they've gone 1-4 vs winning teams, allowing 42,33,32,33 points in the four losses. the one win vs "winning team" was W3 vs Saints 15-12
haven't played winning team since W4 Bucs (loss 33-16)
Can’t control who you play, eye test tells me they looking a lot more like that team before they fell apart plus they added one the 2 best running backs in the game. We shall see. Honestly I thought for sure I would be on Washington in this game cause I been banging there drum all year I just don’t think the matchups are favorable, unless as I said, if hurts holds the ball too long and lets commanders get home, that only way I don’t see the WRs torching Washington secondary, And during that stretch we can call bungals a losing team but nobody holds that offense to 17!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
did take brian robinson o47.5
i had 45.5 queued up and it changed to 47.5
what the
fuck it hes getting 60
If I was sure he be fine and we get a full game/normal amount of work I’d def be with you on this, the way shit works for me tho he comes out and bust a 45 yard run and then leaves for the night! Lol
austinhous
Delicately Satirical
that dc is beautiful all you do is see him smiling all game long lol
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
Is he ready to make the jump? He will get an interview down here I would bet a lot on
Funny enough he's gotten plenty of heat up here. I'd be happy for him wherever he goes.
twinkie13
In transit, arriving late.
I’m by no means saying the Saints go this way, but I think they talk to him
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
Musical chairs
skanless13
Fly, Eagles, Fly!
Aren‘t a lot of refs undefeated when KC plays because KC just wins so much in general? Or am I just wrong to be skeptical at all about the trend?
That being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if the NFL wanted to push the Chiefs to be the first ever 17-0 team
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
I didn't think the Panthers could be any worse lol
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
If this is evident in their game this week I'll start to have my doubts about the NFL. Weird how the chiefs ref is assigned to one of their toughest games on the road they'll have this season.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I can’t beleive Steelers are dogs. They are an awful matchup for ravens. Super interesting this used to be a total phone booth game but I think this gonna look way different. How are ravens gonna stop Pickens and Williams? They are both gonna hit them over the top at least 1x each if not more. It not like ravens can afford to leave both safeties back over the top with Harris and Warren becoming a very good tandem. It’s gonna be raining bombs on the ravens. Maybe ravens offense keeps them in it but they going up against a way better d that Steelers are.
Loves2kickass
Here to cap the games
When this game is a FG or more it's an auto play on the dog in this series.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Isn’t it fair to assume kc wins majority their games regardless the ref? I dunno exact number but I assume they win well over 70% their games. Far as having doubts bout the nfl, you just starting to have those?
these mfers are 2 steps from being the wwe, I been bitching for 15 years every time they install a new judgement call rule that gives ref way to much control over outcomes!
