Week 11 Big Ten
- Thread starter cubsker
- Start date
If you guys really go clip-hunting you will be amazed. I'll explain more when my eyelids can stay open. I showed those crazy ass stats weeks ago about how Mich just gets jobbed in the B1G and 'magically' things have evened out quite a bit since then.
M.W.
Parties like it's 1979
So many ACC fans habitually say that ACC officials are the worst. Well, they aren't.
Look back at last week...
Minnesota got shredded by Illinois. I mean, that in itself is bad. Well how bad was it? Someone lost their job. That is pretty bad. Now, we'll see if they adjust a bit or if it is simply a dumpster fire. Games left with Purdue, NW and Wisconsin make going 2-1 for a bowl game not that great of a possibility. They may well pack it in. Illinois ran for 430. Let that sink in for a bit.
I took that early line for Sparty then bought off with everything going on. I don't totally regret it but I do in some facets.The fact is, it was as a simple of a cap as it gets. Sparty strength vs Maryland strength and I figured MSU could win out. They did. They also took advantage when they had the win. Classic MSU win...ugly as hell but plenty enough to get things done.
Rutgers score a bit late against Wisconsin. That game was blah/Horni got hurt again. I didn't watch any and you could never force me to!
Nebraska keeps fighting. They don't quit. This season has built a foundation for what they will do moving forward. Most other teams would have quit by now. Ohio State defense is what it is... not great. Now, capping-wise...I kinda guessed correctly that the Bucks would force the run quite a bit to re-establish that part of the offense. That was a good layoff for me. I feel good about recognizing that.
I need to watch Iowa and Purdue. It looks like it was a fantastic game. It was simply on at the wrong time for me. The B10 West is a handful of very solid teams, none spectacular but it is improving...finally.
Northwestern played solid but was never in danger of an upset really. Notre Dame is in a different class than they are. The Cats have bigger goals to achieve and frankly they seem unconcerned about the loss afterwards with what lays ahead of them.
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This week...
Big game in East Landfill. This is another match-up game. Can MSU force Ohio State into being a 40+ throw team? We'll see. I think this is going to be a pretty tight one. The OSU pass game should have some success but they cannot just abandon the run. Michigan State will move the ball a bit...but will they complete drives? This has all the feel of a 21-17 type of game. I cannot find any value in the line as of now.
Penn State continues this brutal stretch of games with Wisconsin coming to town. This is another game that shouldn't be pretty. The Badgers should just run, run and control the clock. PSU is very strong up front, so it might take awhile but eventually in a close game Taylor should have some success later in the game. This is a solid dog spot. I would say that PSU is due to bounceback but, again, what a tough month straight of games for this team. I'll allude to the ML Dogs thread for more on this game as the week goes on...
Illinois and Nebraska should have plenty of offense. I cannot imagine NU rolls over and plays dead now. The over here might be worth a gander, weather permitting. I can see NU getting to 40 for sure. I will chew on this and watch movement for a bit.
Maryland and Indiana is the big one in conference as far as Bowl eligibility. Both would do well to win this game. Well, IU has to win it basically. Maryland will have two more chances afterwards.
Northwestern and Iowa out at Kinnick. I will not lie...it would surprise me if the Hawkeyes beat the brakes off NU this week. Both teams are good, and Iowa has had two tough road losses in a row but I can see a 14+ point win here. I am very interested in this game. I haven't bet it yet but most likely will.
Minnesota isn't going bowling with that schedule. Purdue has plenty to play for although this is the letdown game for them after a stretch of big ones. This is a game I'll track and look to get involved at HT perhaps. A few variables I do not like to start things off....Purdue wins though...
Okay, those are my quick thoughts...
Few things to do and be back with PSU/UM recap and look ahead to the big Rutgers game this week...
Minnesota got shredded by Illinois. I mean, that in itself is bad. Well how bad was it? Someone lost their job. That is pretty bad. Now, we'll see if they adjust a bit or if it is simply a dumpster fire. Games left with Purdue, NW and Wisconsin make going 2-1 for a bowl game not that great of a possibility. They may well pack it in. Illinois ran for 430. Let that sink in for a bit.
I took that early line for Sparty then bought off with everything going on. I don't totally regret it but I do in some facets.The fact is, it was as a simple of a cap as it gets. Sparty strength vs Maryland strength and I figured MSU could win out. They did. They also took advantage when they had the win. Classic MSU win...ugly as hell but plenty enough to get things done.
Rutgers score a bit late against Wisconsin. That game was blah/Horni got hurt again. I didn't watch any and you could never force me to!
Nebraska keeps fighting. They don't quit. This season has built a foundation for what they will do moving forward. Most other teams would have quit by now. Ohio State defense is what it is... not great. Now, capping-wise...I kinda guessed correctly that the Bucks would force the run quite a bit to re-establish that part of the offense. That was a good layoff for me. I feel good about recognizing that.
I need to watch Iowa and Purdue. It looks like it was a fantastic game. It was simply on at the wrong time for me. The B10 West is a handful of very solid teams, none spectacular but it is improving...finally.
Northwestern played solid but was never in danger of an upset really. Notre Dame is in a different class than they are. The Cats have bigger goals to achieve and frankly they seem unconcerned about the loss afterwards with what lays ahead of them.
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This week...
Big game in East Landfill. This is another match-up game. Can MSU force Ohio State into being a 40+ throw team? We'll see. I think this is going to be a pretty tight one. The OSU pass game should have some success but they cannot just abandon the run. Michigan State will move the ball a bit...but will they complete drives? This has all the feel of a 21-17 type of game. I cannot find any value in the line as of now.
Penn State continues this brutal stretch of games with Wisconsin coming to town. This is another game that shouldn't be pretty. The Badgers should just run, run and control the clock. PSU is very strong up front, so it might take awhile but eventually in a close game Taylor should have some success later in the game. This is a solid dog spot. I would say that PSU is due to bounceback but, again, what a tough month straight of games for this team. I'll allude to the ML Dogs thread for more on this game as the week goes on...
Illinois and Nebraska should have plenty of offense. I cannot imagine NU rolls over and plays dead now. The over here might be worth a gander, weather permitting. I can see NU getting to 40 for sure. I will chew on this and watch movement for a bit.
Maryland and Indiana is the big one in conference as far as Bowl eligibility. Both would do well to win this game. Well, IU has to win it basically. Maryland will have two more chances afterwards.
Northwestern and Iowa out at Kinnick. I will not lie...it would surprise me if the Hawkeyes beat the brakes off NU this week. Both teams are good, and Iowa has had two tough road losses in a row but I can see a 14+ point win here. I am very interested in this game. I haven't bet it yet but most likely will.
Minnesota isn't going bowling with that schedule. Purdue has plenty to play for although this is the letdown game for them after a stretch of big ones. This is a game I'll track and look to get involved at HT perhaps. A few variables I do not like to start things off....Purdue wins though...
Okay, those are my quick thoughts...
Few things to do and be back with PSU/UM recap and look ahead to the big Rutgers game this week...
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Watched the majority of tOSU game with Nebraska. Came away impressed with the fight Huskers displayed. They really are not far away from being a good team.
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Need more speed at WR and then just flat out better players on defense. The effort on defense this year is night and day from last year though.
Okay, Michigan and Penn State recap...
Michigan went out and punched them in the mouth. People might not like the game plan at times but they want to control the ball and just demoralize the opposition. It take time, but that line gets stronger and stronger as the game goes. They missed a few passes early but got going a bit later in the 2nd quarter and into the third. Once they got to 14-0/21-0 it was gonna be an absolute rout. The defense was outstanding.They had a score to settle and they did it. So, you have an absolute rout... 42-7...which frankly could have been worse.
Penn State front 7 impressed me quite a bit, fwiw. I know Trace was hurt but unless he could run early and often he wasn't going to be a huge factor. He is a gamer but the fact is the guy completes around 54% of his passes. Hamler definitely wanted to make an impact coming back but just wasn't able to against that secondary.
The concern for Michigan continues to be Nordin. He is a problem right now and frankly this could become a big issue down the stretch. I hope he gets to try several FG's this week to get some confidence. He has the yips right now.
Tarik was back and I am mad the TD got called back because I was waiting all game for a play action bomb to him. It was such a good story. Oh well, you see the element that kid brings. Meanwhile, DPJ is blossoming before our eyes.
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This week...Rutgers.
The gameplan needs to be...
-No injuries
-Higdon 10 or less carries.
-No designed runs for Shea
-Absolutely no starters past 4-5 mins left in the 3rd.
-Milk clock and get out of there.
-See what Milton/Peters have in them. I have no clue on who they trot out as QB #2. I do know it is nice that they finally have depth back there though.
My early week guess is Michigan gives up 7 points somewhere fluky.
Michigan scores around 37-42 themselves. This is literally a game they just need to get out of with nothing bad happening. The points would be my only suggestion but I won't be playing that personally.
Michigan went out and punched them in the mouth. People might not like the game plan at times but they want to control the ball and just demoralize the opposition. It take time, but that line gets stronger and stronger as the game goes. They missed a few passes early but got going a bit later in the 2nd quarter and into the third. Once they got to 14-0/21-0 it was gonna be an absolute rout. The defense was outstanding.They had a score to settle and they did it. So, you have an absolute rout... 42-7...which frankly could have been worse.
Penn State front 7 impressed me quite a bit, fwiw. I know Trace was hurt but unless he could run early and often he wasn't going to be a huge factor. He is a gamer but the fact is the guy completes around 54% of his passes. Hamler definitely wanted to make an impact coming back but just wasn't able to against that secondary.
The concern for Michigan continues to be Nordin. He is a problem right now and frankly this could become a big issue down the stretch. I hope he gets to try several FG's this week to get some confidence. He has the yips right now.
Tarik was back and I am mad the TD got called back because I was waiting all game for a play action bomb to him. It was such a good story. Oh well, you see the element that kid brings. Meanwhile, DPJ is blossoming before our eyes.
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This week...Rutgers.
The gameplan needs to be...
-No injuries
-Higdon 10 or less carries.
-No designed runs for Shea
-Absolutely no starters past 4-5 mins left in the 3rd.
-Milk clock and get out of there.
-See what Milton/Peters have in them. I have no clue on who they trot out as QB #2. I do know it is nice that they finally have depth back there though.
My early week guess is Michigan gives up 7 points somewhere fluky.
Michigan scores around 37-42 themselves. This is literally a game they just need to get out of with nothing bad happening. The points would be my only suggestion but I won't be playing that personally.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Where's Fondy? WTH shouldnt I bet on Wisconsin Saturday even with VC at QB? Line going up though. PSU stinks and I know Wiscky Dick injured etc but cmon. Should be grind type game. #9 isnt healthy for PSU. PSU winning, sure. But basically a blowout, fill me in here if you would.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Weather for Saturday looking perfect for Sparty to fugly it up.
Do not get why Iowa is favored by DD vs Northwestern
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
It is pretty high. I want to like NW here, but the line is so high I feel like I shouldn't. Northwestern has won the last 2; 17-10 OT and 38-31. Before that Iowa won blowouts; 40-10 (both teams ranked) and 48-7.
I guess it would be reasonable to say Iowa would be favored at Northwestern? Maybe? If Iowa would be -3 at NW, add 3.5 for the NW homefield (Phil Steel's number, is it really that high?) and add 4.5 for Iowa's and you'd have Iowa -11. So to start with, do we agree Iowa would be favored at NW?
NW 3-0 on the road this year.
NW very public. This reminds me just like the uw and wsu game last year in terms of line and public expectation and team quality. Its like oddsmakers sniffed a blowout
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Yes appears like what the line is saying. Although Iowa has been a DD fav 3x the last 11 games in the series and NW has actually won all of those straight up! Plus there was another 8pt spread that NW won straight up on.
Straight up winner bold
2017 - NW +1.5 17-10 OT at NW
2016 - NW +12.5 38-31 at Iowa
2015 - Iowa -1.5 40-10 at NW
2014 - Iowa -4 48-7 at Iowa
2013 - Iowa -3.5 17-10 OT at Iowa
2012 - NW -5 28-17 at NW
2011 - Iowa -6.5 41-31 at Iowa
2010 - NW +10 21-17 at NW
2009 - NW +15 17-10 at Iowa
2008 - NW +8 22-17 at Iowa
2007 - Iowa +1.5 28-17 at NW
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Let's look, may not apply much to this particular game given past opponents.
Iowa off b2b losses, or off multiple losses:
2017 lost PSU, @ MSU, beat ILL 45-16 -17 (was misleading final)
2016 lost Wisc, @ PSU, beat Mich 14-13 +21.5
2013 lost MSU, @OSU, beat NW 17-10 -3.5 OT
2012 lost 6 straight end of year
2010 lost @ NW, OSU, upset by Min on the road 24-27 -15
2009 lost NW, @ OSU, beat Min 12-0 -10.5
2008 lost @ Pitt, NW, @ MSU, beat IND on the road 45-9 -6
2007 lost @ ISU, @ Wisc, IND, @ PSU, beat ILL 10-6 +4.5
Key for NW will be to avoid long passing downs. But without Larkin, their running game has been abysmal and hasn't improved much. Almost a quarter of their runs get stuffed at the line of scrimmage! Iowa run D doesn't allow much, 26th in line yards and the D is a monster on passing downs, ranking 13th in sack rate. So I could see a lot of measly runs and then Iowa teeing off on Thorson
On the other side, NW doesn't pressure the QB at all, ranking 121st in sack rate. Time is all Stanley needs. Sub-110 passer rating against top-50 teams in sack rate like Iowa and Penn State. 150+ rating against bottom-90 teams like Wiscy, Minny, Purdue, Indiana.
Northwestern secondary strongly lacking in returning experience, especially at safety and its linebackers are notoriously poor in pass coverage. Stanley loves his tight ends, as two of them lead Iowa receivers. Iowa receivers aren't really big play guys who accrue long catches, but instead more possession guys. Soft coverage is a strategy thats absolutely unable to stop possession-based receivers.
So I think Stanley has himself a day.
On the other side, NW doesn't pressure the QB at all, ranking 121st in sack rate. Time is all Stanley needs. Sub-110 passer rating against top-50 teams in sack rate like Iowa and Penn State. 150+ rating against bottom-90 teams like Wiscy, Minny, Purdue, Indiana.
Northwestern secondary strongly lacking in returning experience, especially at safety and its linebackers are notoriously poor in pass coverage. Stanley loves his tight ends, as two of them lead Iowa receivers. Iowa receivers aren't really big play guys who accrue long catches, but instead more possession guys. Soft coverage is a strategy thats absolutely unable to stop possession-based receivers.
So I think Stanley has himself a day.
- Line Yards per Carry: For 2018, we are experimenting with a new definition for college line yardage based on film study and generalization. Instead of the ALY figure FO used for the NFL, this one is tighter: the line gets credit for rushing yardage between 0-3 yards (instead of 0-4) and 50% credit for yards 4-8 (instead of 5-10). Anything over 8 yards is quantified as a highlight opportunity, and credit goes to the runner. As with the pro definition, lost yardage still counts for 125%. (Garbage time is filtered out for all line yardage averages.)
And yeah you mentioned the spot...these two losses though were really bitter for Iowa. Gave up short field, which resulted in 16 of their 30 points allowed, in a loss to Penn State who they really wanted to avenge for that last-second loss at Kinnick. Then the tight loss against Purdue after which they sent in a number of tapes complaining about officiating that they were pissed about. So two tough losses. Obliterated the spread past two years after b2b losses.
This is the last big home game. At Illini and vs Braska after this. So this is the perfect opportunity to stamp a positive note on the regular season. I think this is the game where everything goes right for Iowa and they take out their anger on Northwestern.
Northwestern, on the flip side, is coming off two battles with notoriously physical opponents, prolific Notre Dame, and Wisconsin. They may be a bit worn here.
And then there's Kinnick. Always a tough place to play.
This is the last big home game. At Illini and vs Braska after this. So this is the perfect opportunity to stamp a positive note on the regular season. I think this is the game where everything goes right for Iowa and they take out their anger on Northwestern.
Northwestern, on the flip side, is coming off two battles with notoriously physical opponents, prolific Notre Dame, and Wisconsin. They may be a bit worn here.
And then there's Kinnick. Always a tough place to play.
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Btw. 81% money on Northwestern and line moving from -10 to -11
Iowa ever sending tapes about officiating just does my heart good.
You know what does my heart good? Seeing Carsen Edwards live up to the hype from the get-go. Let's boiler the fuck up baby!
Cuz gonna win by DDs silly.
You on Iowa too amigo?
When will you let me write amigo again? That used to be my favorite word I think my first ever tag line was CTG‘s top amigo lol
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Iowa and PSU favored by as many seems like a trap on the dogs. I've watched very little Wisky this year, besides the beatdown west of motown.
s--k
Goodbye to Romance College Football
Wisconsin can be had through the air. Everyone thought Thorson would exploit them, but he didn't that was probably one of UW's better pass D days. Call that the exception because teams who know how to throw (excluding ILL and Rut) have found success vs them..Mich 70% only 6.2 ypa, Neb 59% 9.3 ypa, Iowa 61% 11.1 ypa. I would assume that PSU can move the the ball, but that doesn't mean that UW can't stay in the game still.
:spitball:
Oh stop with this 81% stuff. Your name better be "Tru" to talk like that.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Holding my nose and taking Wisky PSU under. Was royally bent over in Iowa PSU game and I expect more of the same with two clown teams snapping balls out of end zones, blocked punts, pick 6's and such bad offense that it sets up other team to score. Nevertheless, 54 seems high to me in the cold weather with injured QBs and offense far from firing on any type of cylinder. Wisky dick will run the ball 50 times if they can and PSU front has looked better and without the threat of a pass should be able to somewhat contain Wisky RB stud. PSU offense is a mess, QB not healthy and if back up plays I'd guess they will smash him Tebow style running much of the day and try get their RB involved more. I just dont see this being anything more than 30-20 at absolute most, more like 24-20 and I think that may be high, but at 50 Im giving a pick 6 and two safeties and the inevitable KJ Hamler KR for TD. Lets get it!
Real short on time this week, so I am going to do some quick predictions/leans...
Michigan State 23-21
Wisconsin 26-24
Michigan 41-7
Nebraska 45-24
Indiana 31-28
Iowa 31-13
Purdue 42-21
Played Iowa earlier in week.
Have discussed with a few, Rutgers small ass tt over might be worth a shot. Michigan will hopefully be going deep into the 74 man travel roster. They are deep, but still...and they tend to give up a garbage score. Rutgers moved the ball a bit in the last 35-40 minutes at Wisconsin.
I actually think Nebraska might be worth a play now. I am not playing them but at the current number, definitely would lean.
Yes, you would think I should be playing Wisconsin but my 'Wisconsin Rule' is in effect.
Sparty should ugly it up. If Haskins n company use quick hitters in the middle etc they can move the ball. Sparty won't move it a lot but they are playing a bad defense. You have to expect a lucky charm or two as well. The Spartans remember getting jail-sexed last year as well.
Purdue TT perhaps?
Good luck all, will be around in a few spurts later today but that is about it.
Michigan State 23-21
Wisconsin 26-24
Michigan 41-7
Nebraska 45-24
Indiana 31-28
Iowa 31-13
Purdue 42-21
Played Iowa earlier in week.
Have discussed with a few, Rutgers small ass tt over might be worth a shot. Michigan will hopefully be going deep into the 74 man travel roster. They are deep, but still...and they tend to give up a garbage score. Rutgers moved the ball a bit in the last 35-40 minutes at Wisconsin.
I actually think Nebraska might be worth a play now. I am not playing them but at the current number, definitely would lean.
Yes, you would think I should be playing Wisconsin but my 'Wisconsin Rule' is in effect.
Sparty should ugly it up. If Haskins n company use quick hitters in the middle etc they can move the ball. Sparty won't move it a lot but they are playing a bad defense. You have to expect a lucky charm or two as well. The Spartans remember getting jail-sexed last year as well.
Purdue TT perhaps?
Good luck all, will be around in a few spurts later today but that is about it.
