Week 11 ~ Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Sunday 5-1
Week 10 ~ 34-27 +12.499u
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YTD 231-231 -15u
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Week 10 was my best week this year's baseball. Still down for the year but hopefully hot for long.

Fiers 10-4 in MAY-JUN at home since 2016 so couldn't resist big juice https://goo.gl/YSeJdk
Duffy has been very bad over last year even though his last 2 starts have been good. Angels been slumping at home and this should be great spot to right the ship as query after query pointed to halos today and under
 
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The Five Pack said:
I'm a big logic guy and you seem to be too, always thinking through your plays. What's the logic behind this one? Thanks!
Click to expand...

There are several reason pointing to Angels tonight. Duffy is terrible going 9-16 over last 365 days https://goo.gl/VWW98y and several queries including..
Home favorite that has lost at least 6 of last 10 at home over last 2+ years May-Aug and opp starter off quality start. Logically the Angels are better than they have played and will turn around vs lesser foe. Also Duffy with 2 good starts likely to regress.
season > 2014 and HF and 4 < month < 9 and tS(L@H, N=10) > 5 and line < 125 and os:QS

Another angle is big home fav 180 to 225 over 5 years May-Jul if first series game when only averaging < 3.8 runs over last 8 games. Logically they aren't scoring well but still big fav so opp likely poor offense and starter...also shows under with this.
-225 < line < -180 and HF and season >= 2012and month in [5, 6, 7] and FGS and tA(runs, N=8)<3.8

I had at least 2 other trends pointing to Angels but dont recall atm...I do know Royos pen is terrible and Duffy hasn't completed 5th inn in 4 of last 8
 
ok i'm buying in

  • 953 Diamondbacks +101

Home favs only 7-10 on Monday with Barrett ref'n
and Home team when both have won at least 3 straight and opp avg over 6 rpg L7 is only 19-21

H and streak >= 3 and oA(runs, N=7) > 6 and o:streak > 2 and line < 105
SU: 19-21 (-1.27, 47.5%) avg line: -147.7 / 134.0 on / against: -$1,256 / +$952 ROI: -21.1% / +23.6%
RL: 10-20 (-2.17, 33.3%) avg line: 133.3 / -149.8 on / against: -$817 / +$654 ROI: -24.5% / +14.1%
 
Mon 3-2
Had to give back a unit in late add but still another profitable day.
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Paxton 16 RL as away dog whil Keuch only 11-18 RL as home fav over last 3 years

FOR cubs...Big home fav 185-225 with good starter and bat avg > 262 is 34-2 since 2013
season > 2013 and HF and tA(hits) / tA(at bats) > .262 and STDSWHIP < 1.25 and month < 9 and -225 < line < -185
SU: 34-2 (2.58, 94.4%) avg line: -202.9 / 183.6 on / against: +$2,985 / -$3,015 ROI: +40.9% / -83.8%
RL: 25-11 (1.08, 69.4%) avg line: 104.7 / -117.1 on / against: +$1,540 / -$1,826 ROI: +41.9% / -43.3%

May play Cubs RL as well and waiting on MIN starter/line for game 1 as it's a likely go as well
 
tue 3-6

other than twinks comeback, everything went wrong yesterday..have to move on. Seems like most of my plays are coming up chalky last couple days
Need a visit from lady luck :p​
 
couple more adds
  • 972 Twins -171
  • 972 Twins -1½ +115
  • 975 Rays/Nationals Under 7½ -112
MIN has won 17 straight as fav after leaving more on base in previous game vs same team

p:LOB > op:LOB and F and SG > 1 and season > 2016 and team = Twins
SU: 24-7 (3.03, 77.4%) avg line: -131.4 / 121.4 on / against: +$1,539 / -$1,606 ROI: +38.2% / -51.7%

RL: 20-11 (1.53, 64.5%) avg line: 140.6 / -161.1 on / against: +$1,670 / -$2,077 ROI: +53.6% / -41.3%
 
wed 5-8

when i'm all over these favs, i dont do well...to say the least. I mean 4 of my 5 wins cam from bos and hou, but the profit is minimal when laying the big juice. I may still play big chalk, but I'm really gonna try and limit the number of plays over 160

  • 901 Dodgers +124
  • 908 Cubs -128
  • 916 Rays +105
  • 904 Reds -107
​
 
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gotta get one big juice in

  • 910 Twins -204
  • 909 White Sox/Twins Over 9 +105
  • 910 Twins -1½ -105
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I am considering Tailion first 5. I just read a piece from Cokin where he likes the Dodgers although he is not presently playing them. Tailion has been hit hard in the past by them but that ref this year is 5-0 for the home t really large numberseam. This is his best month and he is seriously a great day pitcher. The problem is number of games. when you play large numbers you are buying into bs spreads. 4 games in a day is a lot. By the way I am undecided myself about the Dodger game but he does like 5 and he is a great day pitcher. still thinking
 
Mrpickem, I totally agree with you on the juice. I have been betting the bases for 25 years and I have yet to have sustained success playing the big favs. My success has been as much in juice and money management as it has been picking the games. I try to pick a set that shows a higher win amount than wager amount through run lines, dogs and parlays while employing reverse run lines and -2.5 to increase juice in the bettor favor even more. And Tuck is right from my experience, when I play a lot of games there are few days that the ledger shows a large win while the real killer loser days drain the account. But I have to fight myself to limit plays as I am a total gambleraholic.
 
BJPLAYER said:
when I play a lot of games there are few days that the ledger shows a large win while the real killer loser days drain the account. But I have to fight myself to limit plays as I am a total gambleraholic.
Click to expand...


That is spot on, I can win 10 of 12 days and only be up 10-15u and then 2 shit days can give most back. I did change my action to risk 1 unit on all game so theoretically I am heavier on dogs. But if I bet a -200 fav I only win .5u so a lot of times I will bet both ML and RL. Parlays and teasers have never been good for me, I play them on occasion but rarely. I been playing the line since early 90's...football only first couple years, so yeah I been around quite a while too.

:cheers3:
 
adding this one, Cole is 10-1 at home at night since coming to TEX when temp is over 90 degrees https://goo.gl/aMdEcp
  • 918 Rangers +154
  • 918 Rangers +1½ -105
Also home dogs of 125 or more in AL with a starter averaging > 5 K's per start and hitting < .260 omitting April and Sept win at 58% clip as +141 dog on average :D
HD and season > 2009 and sA(SSO) >= 5 and tS(hits) / tS(at bats) < .26 and league = AL and line >= 125 and 4 < month < 9
SU: 49-36 (0.01, 57.6%) avg line: 141.2 / -151.6 on / against: +$3,292 / -$3,812 ROI: +38.7% / -29.6%

RL: 56-27 (1.52, 67.5%) avg line: -122.7 / 110.1 on / against: +$2,295 / -$2,709 ROI: +22.4% / -31.8%


View attachment 32777
 
Interesting. How does that fit with his 1-3 with an ERA of 4.89 ERA over 35 innings this season
 
By the way I am definitely thinking about betting Houston since it is supported by days of the week days rest and the fact that Houston is actually a great road team going with a great road pitcher but Not till I see the umpire
 
Break down what his rest was in those games and who they were against if you can
 
Also noticed this today at Killersports
er Margin Trend of the Day The Astros are 7-0 SU as a road 140+ favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings. The average final score in these seven games has been Houston 9.29 runs, Opponent 1.57 runs. Wow. The SDQL text is: team=Astros and A and line<=-140 and p:MRI>=2 and date>=20170926 What's the SDQL for
 
tuck321 said:
Also noticed this today at Killersports
er Margin Trend of the Day The Astros are 7-0 SU as a road 140+ favorite after a game in which they had multiple multiple-run innings. The average final score in these seven games has been Houston 9.29 runs, Opponent 1.57 runs. Wow. The SDQL text is: team=Astros and A and line<=-140 and p:MRI>=2 and date>=20170926 What's the SDQL for
Click to expand...

No doubt HOU is good road team, but it's because of their pitching, not hitting. They only hitting .209 on road and avg 3.0 rpg...also hit only .211 vs lefties. Under may be a nice play we can both agree on :shake:
 
tuck321 said:
Remember I am no master of SDQL
Click to expand...

I'm far from a master either, really just started using it a lot with hoops this past year. I do have a background in programming so the queries come fairly easy, just have to come up with good logic and learn the syntax. I do find it a useful tool and really surprised it's still free to use.
 
In those 3 games 1 was on 5 his best
1 was on 6 his second best and th third one vs Boston was on 4 his worst and he lost that game giving up 3 runs 1 unearned
 
The umpire in the third game was Adrian Johnson. Hamel has an ERA of 2.13 over 55 innings with him and he lost that game
 
thur 5-3
5-0 in day only to lose all 3 night plays
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  • 953 Brewers +119
  • 961 Dbacks -106 https://goo.gl/GKJL4t
  • 966 Blue Jays -1½ +100
  • 968 Red Sox -1½ -145
  • 973 Astros -1½ -120
  • 975 Angels -1½ +130 https://goo.gl/Ss9yuy
  • 975 Angels -125
  • 977 Royals +140
  • 980 Mets +107
  • 980 Mets +1½ -155
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​
Chacin(#1) and Junis(#9) have been 2 of top money winners over last 12 months. DeGrom simply top 3 pitcher this year, last 8 start he gave up 1 run 3 times...other 5, ZERO! Jays, Sox, stros all big chalk but several angles point to them so I'm laying stick to ease the juice
View attachment 32783
 
fri 7-6 with small profit
  • 902 Nationals -149
  • 904 Phillies -112
  • 908 Reds -1½ +200
  • 910 Marlins +1½ -165
  • 914 Dodgers -1½ +120
  • 914 Dodgers -164
  • 916 Blue Jays -1½ +165
  • 916 Blue Jays -120
  • 926 Rays -1½ +165
  • 927 Astros +1½ -111
I'm sure the stros game is a line error and I doubt Tony will pay it..it should be -1' but HOU is 15-2 on road this year as 150 or more favorite both ML & RL

This one good for Mets and Nats, I backed out of Mets for other reasons
tS(hits,N=10) / tS(at bats,N=10) < .225 and season > 2012 and H and day = Saturday and S:L
SU: 99-55 (0.60, 64.3%) avg line: -121.2 / 109.4 on / against: +$3,726 / -$4,426 ROI: +18.5% / -25.2%

Dodgers
H and season > 2015 and line < -119 and month < 9 and WP < 52 and p:W and NDIV and s:W
SU: 99-51 (1.39, 66.0%) avg line: -158.5 / 146.5 on / against: +$1,897 / -$2,472 ROI: +8.0% / -16.5%
RL: 72-78 (-0.11, 48.0%) avg line: 136.1 / -152.9 on / against: +$2,066 / -$3,320 ROI: +13.5% / -14.4%

more LAD
AD and line > 125 and STDSERA < 2.9 and o:STDSWHIP <= 1.2 and month > 4 and month < 9
SU: 112-288 (-1.46, 28.0%) avg line: 158.1 / -172.7 on / against: -$11,764 / +$10,308 ROI: -29.4% / +14.9%
RL: 188-175 (0.02, 51.8%) avg line: -144.9 / 131.7 on / against: -$6,460 / +$4,145 ROI: -12.2% / +11.2%


Jays, Fish, Reds, Rays all qualify on this one. Large sample and over 56% ML and RL
H and tS(W@H, N=10) < 5 and season > 2015 and 125 > line > -145 and WP < 48 and p:H
SU: 242-187 (0.29, 56.4%) avg line: -107.9 / -102.1 on / against: +$4,390 / -$6,359 ROI: +9.1% / -13.6%
RL: 240-188 (0.16, 56.1%) avg line: 112.4 / -130.1 on / against: +$8,827 / -$11,801 ROI: +16.6% / -18.7%


View attachment 32793
 
sat 5-6

  • 951 Cards/Reds Over 9½ -101
  • 954 Marlins -111
  • 956 Phillies +101
  • 955 Brewers/Phillies Under 8½ -115
  • 964 Dodgers -163
  • 968 Blue Jays -125
  • 969 Mariners -1½ +106
  • 971 Indians -1½ -150
  • 975 Astros -1½ -125
  • 975 Astros/Rangers Under 10½ +105
  • 978 Athletics* -171
  • 979 Yankees -1½ -140
  • 979 Yankees -230
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