Week 10...Totally late and probably useless at this point....

[Br@ssknux]

Gents,

The last three weeks have been impossible for me to be here and contribute. I have to admit, a couple trips to Chicago for the Cubs World Series appearance threw a wrench in things as well. The time I've had this year illustrates my awful record, which is somewhere around 40% if I'm lucky. I've got a few today.


1. Indiana -11 @Rutgers: Rutgers has found ways to be competitive on the road, but something happens to them when they play at home. We all know what happened in the Michigan debacle, and they even lost by 17 to an Illinois team that actually played terribly in the game, pausing from their own incompetence long enough to accept 5 turnovers. I think a lot of the same thing happens today against the Hoosiers, who are actually good enough defensively to dominate this Rutgers offense, and if they employ the same style running game that ran all over Maryland last week, they should score at will against the 127th ranked run defense in the country.

 

[Br@ssknux]

2. Louisville -25 @ Boston College: BC is rumored to have a good defense, and I've been fooled by that premise more than once this year. Actually, they looked pretty good last week in holding down a decent NC State offense, but when they've faced truly dynamic offenses, which Louisville is, they've been blitzkrieg-ed. Syracuse piled up 533 yards on them. Clemson had 503 and more than 360 at the half before calling off the dogs. VT had 476. You get the picture. In addition, BC's offense is among the worst in the country again and is a horrible matchup for a Louisville D that carves people up when they are motivated. Coming on the heels of a poor performance last week and a bit of a snub in the Playoff rankings, I think they'll be motivated. I hate laying big points, but i see value here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

3. Michigan State -7.5 @ Illinois: I really doesn't matter who the Illini play at this point, they aren't going to be able to score a lot of points. They have lost their top 4 receivers to injury, so nobody left on their roster can beat man to man coverage. Chances are Jeff George Jr is going to start, and with no weapons and no ability to move in the pocket, the cake is kind of baked for him. Illinois might have a shot to compete in this game if Wes Lunt can go, but that appears unlikely. ON the flip side, MSU should be feeling pretty good about themselves after their effort last week, and offensively, they really haven't been bad all year. They piled up 400+ yards last week against the Wolverines, easily the most Michigan has given up this year. Illinois could play well and still not cover this number. If Lovie stays the course, things will probably turn around for the Illini, but it's gonna take awhile.

 

[Br@ssknux]

4. Pitt +5.5 @ Miami: Obviously, Pitt's pass defense (120th) worries me, but in my opinion, they have an edge in pretty much every other category. Offensively, they are 13th on overall drive efficiency, 19th in rushing, 12th in passer rating. They are 22nd against the run. 35th in 3rd down offense, 37th in 3rd down defense despite their pass coverage issues. Miami is having all kind of trouble converting on 3rd down(114th) so I think the pass D issues might be mitigated a bit. Pitt has been very resourceful all year, hanging with teams that are probably better than Miami, and the Canes are on a trending down. I like the Panthers to hang here.

 

[RetroVK]

good stuff brass

 

[Br@ssknux]

5. @Northwestern +6 v Wisconsin: I was hoping for 7 here to guard against every OT situation, but I'll take what I can get with the Cats. Better Wisconsin teams have come into Evanston and lost to worse Northwestern teams than this...I think the Cats have a shot at winning this one. They key is their offense, which thanks to Austin Carr has become a very viable passing machine, which will be required to beat a defense as good as the Badgers. In addition, it must be pointed out that this Wisconsin offense is just not good enough to elicit a blowout of a solid squad like the Cats. They only managed a total of 209 yards last year in Madison, and they couldn't crack 300 in regulation last week against Nebraska. As long as the Cats take care of the ball and avoid giving Wisconsin short fields, they should be in this game until the final gun with a good shot to pull off the outright.

 

[Br@ssknux]

6. Purdue +18 @ Minnesota: Since 2012, Purdue is 12-6 ATS as a road dog, and they've played their best games this year on the road. Minnesota is getting some attention now because they are 6-2, but they certainly have some warts themselves and have not played well at all at home lately. They put up 40 points and beat Illinois last week by 23, but they gained only 283 yards for the game, having been gifted at least 2 scores by Illini turnovers. One advantage you could point to in this one for Minny is that they are a rushing team that is facing the 126th best rush defense, and you'd be right. However, 2 weeks ago they were in the same boat against a Rutgers defense that was ranked dead last at the time and employs a High School JV level offense and the Gophers only squeaked out a 34-32 win in that one. Purdue's offense, though no juggernaut, is significantly more competent than Rutgers. I think the Boilers will stay close here unless they completely shit the bed with turnovers.

 

[Br@ssknux]

good stuff brass

Thanks CC. Sorry I've been MIA lately.

 

[Br@ssknux]

7. Florida -3.5 @Arkansas: I realize there are a lot of people that think Arkansas is going to win this game outright, making a miraculous comeback from the absolute curb stomping they took at Auburn a couple weeks ago. I guess I can conjure up a thought like that, but there's a lot of things you have to overlook to come to that assertion. First, it's going to be hard to beat a top 10 caliber team when in your games against FBS competition you rank 118th in rushing offense and dead last in rush defense, giving up 6.75 yards per carry. Yes, that's right: 6.75!!!. Obviously, since they can't run, in order to move the ball against this Florida defense (who by the way ranks 4th in overall defensive efficiency) Arkansas will have to throw it with Austin Allen and company. Unfortunately for them, Florida is ranked #1 in the country in passer rating against, so that's going to be a tall order. Say what you will about Florida, but they'll almost certainly be able to run it on Arkansas, and despite their pedestrian overall stats, they rank 6th in the country in converting 3rd downs(50%!), while the Hogs are 124th in 3rd down defense. This looks like a long afternoon for the Hogs to me.

 

[Br@ssknux]

8. Iowa +6 @Penn State: It's been a disappointing season for Iowa, a team I figured would be favored in every game until Michigan came to Iowa City later this month. Despite their struggles, I still like them here because all of their problems have been at home. They've gone 3-0 on the road(albeit against questionable compeititon) and it can't be ignored that they are 15-3 ATS on the road overall since 2013. They've been able to fashion a pretty reliable and at times explosive running game with the two headed monster RB attack they have, ranking 31st in rush offense while PSU has given up almost 5 yards per carry in the Big Ten. Penn State is feeling good about themselves coming off a couple great performances, I think they are due for a bit of a clunker, and Iowa is a game road foe. This one should be close.

 

[Br@ssknux]

9. LSU +7 v Alabama: Defensively, LSU has been outstanding for most of the year, ranking 3rd in overall defensive efficency, and they have the athletes to contain Jalen Hurts. I think this might be the best, most complete defense that Hurts as seen, and I am still waiting for him to show SOME signs of his youth. Frankly, I don't have a lot of additional evidence to present to jury on this one. With Alabama, there isn't much of a case you can make against them. I just have a feeling that this game will be a slobberknocker, and I wanted to get on the record on it. If LSU can avoid giving up a non-offensive TD(which is almost impossible these days against the Tide), they'll have a shot.

 

[Br@ssknux]

10. Nevada +15.5 @ New Mexico: I love Bob Davie...well, I should say I used to enjoy his broadcasting acumen on ESPN, but I don't think New Mexico should be favored by more than 2 TDs against many teams in the country. I know they've had some nice games, and that Nevada has looked putrid at times this year, but this is strange role for the Lobos. They remain a terrible defensive team (111th in defensive efficiency) and they had to fight to the death to hold off San Jose State at home and lost outright to New Mexico State as a 2 TD favorite earlier this year. . Nevada is no great shakes, but they should be able to hang with the Lobos here.

 

[Br@ssknux]

That's it for now.

 

[Fondybadger]

Some good thoughts like always. Best of luck to you today

 

[Timh]

Always good to see you post Brass, BOL today.