Week 10 Thoughts--opinions wanted

[Schrute]

South Fla -2.5--IMO best team in the Big Least in a must win game. Hate that its on the road and that they aren't the best road team but I think they have enough to get it done. If Selvie puts it all on the line and if Grothe plays within himself then I think they cover.

CMU ML--they find a way to win and they are playing a shitty team coming off a big conference win. I really like the position for the Chipps and feel that they are actually the better team though I don't like playing them at such a short line/value on the road.

UVA ML--home team, better team? playing against a very maligned offense. I just don't understand the line at all unless it has something to do with team names. IMO, UVA is the better team at this point. They have won four in a row and though Miami did just sneak out a victory against Wake, I think Wake is severely overrated at this point

Conn +3.5/ML--I just don't buy WVa yet...at least until they put together 2 games in a row. A good half of football just doesn't have me sold. Conn knows this is an enormous game in the Big Least standings and a home game could mean a huge victory. I don't love the noon start time but lets hope the home fans get rowdy anyways

Illinois -2--what is this line? Better team at home and they are only laying two. OK I got drunk yesterday and had to go to a wedding so if Juice got severely injured in the 4th quarter then please let me know. Otherwise, I'm on the Illini

Auburn +5.5--I just have to take Auburn and points at Ole Miss. It might be a bad play and its definitely a play directed by preseason misconceptions but I just have to take the points at this stage. Please, give me a reason not to

UGA +5.5/ML--merely a lean at this point based off my hopes of UGA actually turning the corner last week. Otherwise they can't make this total high enough. Anything under 60 and I'm on the over. I just think UGA makes it a 4th quarter game, especially in a shootout

Texas Tech +6--I got burned when the Horns played Oklahoma but have laid off of them the past 2 weeks. I think they definitely face a team in a hostile atmosphere that can score with them this weekend. It will actually be the first hostile atmosphere of the year for them and I can definitely see this being a three point game either way. I'll take the points.

Mich State -5.5--sorry but I just don't believe a home win against Ill salvages Wiskys season to the point that they are balls to the wall again. MSU still has a chance at a great season and an awesome bowl berth and they need this game in a big way. I think they get it by 2+ TDs

Kentucky +3/ML--inflated line after KY rested their whole damn team in Gainesville. MSU is still shit and KY is still mediocre. I'll take mediocre vs horseshit any day of the week

GT +2/ML--I think they have a perfect defense to stop Ponder and the FSU offense. I also think they have the perfect offense to defeat an overaggressive FSU offense. This time last week I saw GT as -4.5 so I will certainly take them as a dog

Ark St +23.5--hoping this one gets run up to +27. Bama shat the bed last year against a Sun Belt team and are facing a huge tweener game b/t Tennessee and LSU with Ark St coming to town. I smell a 21-10 victory in Tuscaloosa for the Tide before getting a win in Baton Rouge



Nothing is locked in so please give me your thoughts. :cheers:

 

[horses]

I'll try...

USF...I agree

CMU...I think this line is about right; gotta give IU home field and nothing more. game actually may mean more to IU since they're staying home for bowl season and cmu has to focus on mac.

uva...i think the spread is about right; i made uva -1 so the 'hoos on the ml has slight value imo.

uconn...completely disagree...like wvu here

illinois...line is spot on...i actually think iowa is the just so slightly better team

auburn...agree...won't attempt to talk u off this

uga...spread is about right...i have florida as the best team in the country

texas tech...spread is about right...i had 5

michigan st...disagree...wrong team favored

kentucky...these teams are the same...home field about right

georgia tech...think this spread is about right; tough to make ga tech the favorite after getting dominated by uva in the 2nd half

ark st...concur completely but I won't play since 'bama and saban need impressive victories

good luck this week

 

[E.T.G.]

Dwight, I watched that whole CMU game and in the back of my head I've written down a few notes about this team.

1) You can throw all over them, Ball St is going to rock out against them
2) LeFevour ankle is still messed up, he left the game briefly and came back, never really took off running with any confidence and his throws were high.

 

[Schrute]

Thanks a lot for the thoughts guys...means a lot coming from 2 of the most respectec posters here. That helps me cross a few off as I'd love nothing more than to get this down to about 3-4 teams by Saturday. Again, thanks fellas

 

[O-State]

UConn----Look at Baylor, Ville run success Especially Baylor, as WVU mirrors that attack more.
Illinois----Remember last year @ Iowa the Illini scored like 6 points in a 9-6 type crazzy azz game, only game Illi stopped all season and Iowa sucked last year.
Mich State-----I disagree here. Wisky should run on Michigan State. MSU doesn't blow anyone out, this rates to be a close game.

Dwight Illi to me seem like they are a very emotional team as in Maryland type team. I think if they played with the effort vs. Mizzou, Penn State, and Indiana they take Wisky. They were on drugs yesterday like they were vs. UL Lafayette at home, Minnesota, and S. Illinois or something.

---I fully expect Illi to come out with a great effort at home vs. Iowa, especially after the loss. It's a tough game for me because I like Iowa, I think they could run on Illi. But I also think Illi can really pass on Iowa and expose that end.

Not sure if last year was sign of a great matchup for Iowa or not. I lean Illinois here just to let you know.

 

[SportsNut]

Thoughts :

USF : They are very overrated IMO . They had a week off after the Pitt loss and a homecoming game vs Cuse and couldnt blow them out . I know the final margin was a blowout as I had USF but CUSE hung tough just couldnt do much on offense in the 2nd H . WHich has been the case for them vs Pitt , @ WVU and the @ USF . Teams must make halftime adjustments and Cuse doesnt each week cause its like clockwork. I think these teams are real similiar - good defenses , lack good RBs and good mobile QB's. Point is I thought USF would be in trouble @ Louisville and dont see Cincy as really any easier . Bearcats will better then @ UCONN with Pike making his 2nd start and just shake off one that got away . Really except for NCST that have not dominanted a game ....@ UCF , @FIU , @ Ville , vs Pitt , Vs CUse , vs Kansas

UCM : Really similiar to USF as they have underperformed this season IMO and face a fellow underperformer who finally got a win .

UVA : Playing well and did better at GT then expected . Still the value is gone now IMO . At least last week while I was wrong they were still 2 TD dogs now a PK ? Miami is ugly but they find ways to win as well . No value in UVA IMO perfect example of an overvalued team IMO . They win a few games and go from huge dogs to PK and thats when the streak ends usually. Two weeks ago this is -10 ,last week its -7 ......

WVU: they are on the right track but after an emotional game like that you never know when you have to travel . Huskies still down to a 3rd strong QB and still pissed I passed on the Huskies +3 Saturday ....

Aubrun ? Just take them 1st H as they are always close and same way Houston 1st H is a FADE .

Pretty much agree with the rest of your thoughts FWIW.....:cheers:

 

[O-State]

Oh forgot to mention Auburn Dwight

---I lean Ole Miss here. Let's drop the reputation factor of Auburn. Look at what we know. They struggle to score. Their defense is being asked to be on the field alot and have gotten worn down this year. Quite frankly I've felt their a little overrated.

Ole Miss stands a good chance to get 20. Arkansas pretty much dominated Auburn, Vandy beat them, I mean how can you take Auburn here my friend. Just ask those on them vs. WVU LW.

They aren't going to a bowl don't let name reputation beat you

 

[SportsNut]

Oh forgot to mention Auburn Dwight

---I lean Ole Miss here. Let's drop the reputation factor of Auburn. Look at what we know. They struggle to score. Their defense is being asked to be on the field alot and have gotten worn down this year. Quite frankly I've felt their a little overrated.

Ole Miss stands a good chance to get 20. Arkansas pretty much dominated Auburn, Vandy beat them, I mean how can you take Auburn here my friend. Just ask those on them vs. WVU LW.

They aren't going to a bowl don't let name reputation beat you

Ole Miss great dog but terrible laying points .

 

[horses]

auburn-ole miss is tuff, nut is correct but Auburn has dropped 6 straight ATS; that's tough to overlook and i don't think i could get in front of such a streak. Alarming is the fact they got outgained by arkansas 416 to 193 yds; wva dominated statistically as well. Maybe this just isn't a good team this year.

 

[O-State]

Ole Miss great dog but terrible laying points .

Exactly. And yet I'd rate Auburn below South Carolina, Vandy, and Arkansas.

Against Vandy Ole Miss pretty much dominated but lost TO battle, Arky got a backdoor cover, and South Carolina put a ton of pass yards up, something Auburn won't do.

Basically TO's have killed Ole Miss in these games except for Arkansas. Vandy and Carolina both had defensive touchdowns. Auburn could to it too though. Let's remember I think Auburn had a kickoff TD and maybe an int TD vs. Arkansas and got statistically dominated.

.....It's time to say Auburn is a B-A-D football team. The offense isn't getting fixed till spring folks.

 

[SportsNut]

You dont have to tell me Auburn is bad but Ole Miss leads the SEC in self inflicted wounds . They never play as well as they should when favored and every game with Ole Miss when talking about the cover is BUT this or BUT that ...

I dont think Arkansas or Vandy is better then Auburn either . The only time to look at Auburn is as dogs and believe this is the biggest number they had all year . They were chalk at times before then just a FG at WVU and now you may get nearly a TD .

For me it would be Auburn or pass . Ole Miss fucked me with ARK and earlier with Vandy . Not doing it again unless they are a FG or cheaper.

 

[Schrute]

Wow, thanks a ton for the great responses in this thread.

Another thought to share with you guys is Clemson catching 4.5 at Boston College. BC has been nearly unbeatable at home and I believe that 2 weeks ago Va Tech was catching 3 points in Boston. Do we really think Clemson is only 1.5 points worse than Va Tech? I know that I sure as hell don't and I'm a big Clemson fan. Also, Clemson O-lineman Barry Humphries is out for the rest of the season. That is a huge loss for an already depleted O-line especially facing the D-line of BC. Clemson will yet again put their hearts into this game but the question is will it be enough? The answer is yes for the skill positions, but a RESOUNDING no in the trenches where ballgames are won.

 

[baseballfan396]

TEXAS - At first glance I like Texas a lot against Tech. I just don't think Tech will be able to stop them on offense. Will need to look at it a lil more.

WISKY - I love Wisky against the overrated Spartans. MSU is very one dimensional, with Hoyer being downright terrible at times. Also love the spot. MSU off the big win over in-state rival Michigan, following up the next week with a Wisky team thats regained a lil bit of confidence.

Another thing, the Spartans have trouble stopping the run, and what is it the Badgers do best?? You get me.

GT - Good spot for GT off a surprising loss to UVA. FSU 6-1, fans talking BCS. Look for Paul Johnson's option offense to give the FSU fits all day long.

Just some of my thoughts early in the week.

GL

 

[O-State]

Right now the ACC has more pickem type games than I've ever seen in my life and they are all so damn hard to predict. GT-FSU and Virginia-Miami this week there is like 4 tossups every week who the hell knows I mean f that conference. I think Maryland has seperated themseles FWIW and only team I see value betting in a close game. WF -7 vs. Duke maybe some value this week but 7 is alot in this conference.

Clemson-BC, this is like every other damn game, two teams that have flaws and I question just how good they are and if they are even average.

I think Clemson might be better than VT yes. I really donn't know what to think of VT I mean I think ECU might beat them again if they played, that's bad. Defense overrated offense sucks.

BC I think Crane is a TO machine so count on 2 or more picks maybe some defensive touchdowns. BC though is one of the best in this conference at moving the ball so it's give and take with Crane.

Clemson O will you know what I don't think they can do worse than VT vs. BC. BC defense I thought was a consistent unit and then they gave up 45 vs. UNC. But you know what??? They hadn't even been tested before that because they played all these derilect ACC teams that can't pass. BC lost a shit ton in the secondary. I don't think this defense is as good as it's made out to be. Harper and Clemson I think can pass on them.

Clemson D IS better than VT, I believe this to be true Dwight. I really do Clemson's D is still there.

 

[Schrute]

The thing about Clemson's D-coordinator is that he has a tendency to sit back in a soft zone, trying not to give up the big play. He is fully content with getting dinked and dunked on so long as he doesn't give up a 60 yard TD pass. Now he changed his philosophy somewhat against GT but my question is...is that b/c he let the dogs loose after Bowden got fired or is that b/c GT plays a very safe option heavy offense? Clemson got burned deep on a pass near the end of the game so don't be surprised if he comes back out in a soft zone. If that happens I think Crane can pick them apart. If he blitzes, Clemson should be able to keep it close

 

[O-State]

Well that's the thing BC can move it better than most in this conference and that gives them an edge. It might be a headache watching Crane do it but they can attack a zone.

Now oftentimes the other team's they play are so inept and everthing else is held equal so that is the difference.

---I'm not ready to throw Clemson in the wastebasket. Bama loss don't look too bad now, Maryland loss is encouraging IMO they played them even out rushed them. Wake was a horrible horrible spot situationally. Why fire Bowden?? That wasn't a terrible failure just some bad luck in Maryland game, went up against the possible national champs, and Wake that was a tough spot against a bunch of seniors.

---Clemson has done more than 3/4s of this conference. GT game shit they were their but playcalling was a bunch of 3 year old trick play garbage. Should of won that.

I still like Vic Koenning's bunch defensively they just need an offensive playcaller.

Clemson value is down due to media and press right now but if you look at it damn this team is one of best in ACC.


----Clemson still has more talent than the whole conference

 

[boredlife]

South Fla -2.5--IMO best team in the Big Least in a must win game. Hate that its on the road and that they aren't the best road team but I think they have enough to get it done. If Selvie puts it all on the line and if Grothe plays within himself then I think they cover.

CMU ML--they find a way to win and they are playing a shitty team coming off a big conference win. I really like the position for the Chipps and feel that they are actually the better team though I don't like playing them at such a short line/value on the road.

UVA ML--home team, better team? playing against a very maligned offense. I just don't understand the line at all unless it has something to do with team names. IMO, UVA is the better team at this point. They have won four in a row and though Miami did just sneak out a victory against Wake, I think Wake is severely overrated at this point

Conn +3.5/ML--I just don't buy WVa yet...at least until they put together 2 games in a row. A good half of football just doesn't have me sold. Conn knows this is an enormous game in the Big Least standings and a home game could mean a huge victory. I don't love the noon start time but lets hope the home fans get rowdy anyways

Illinois -2--what is this line? Better team at home and they are only laying two. OK I got drunk yesterday and had to go to a wedding so if Juice got severely injured in the 4th quarter then please let me know. Otherwise, I'm on the Illini

Auburn +5.5--I just have to take Auburn and points at Ole Miss. It might be a bad play and its definitely a play directed by preseason misconceptions but I just have to take the points at this stage. Please, give me a reason not to

UGA +5.5/ML--merely a lean at this point based off my hopes of UGA actually turning the corner last week. Otherwise they can't make this total high enough. Anything under 60 and I'm on the over. I just think UGA makes it a 4th quarter game, especially in a shootout

Texas Tech +6--I got burned when the Horns played Oklahoma but have laid off of them the past 2 weeks. I think they definitely face a team in a hostile atmosphere that can score with them this weekend. It will actually be the first hostile atmosphere of the year for them and I can definitely see this being a three point game either way. I'll take the points.

Mich State -5.5--sorry but I just don't believe a home win against Ill salvages Wiskys season to the point that they are balls to the wall again. MSU still has a chance at a great season and an awesome bowl berth and they need this game in a big way. I think they get it by 2+ TDs

Kentucky +3/ML--inflated line after KY rested their whole damn team in Gainesville. MSU is still shit and KY is still mediocre. I'll take mediocre vs horseshit any day of the week

GT +2/ML--I think they have a perfect defense to stop Ponder and the FSU offense. I also think they have the perfect offense to defeat an overaggressive FSU offense. This time last week I saw GT as -4.5 so I will certainly take them as a dog

Ark St +23.5--hoping this one gets run up to +27. Bama shat the bed last year against a Sun Belt team and are facing a huge tweener game b/t Tennessee and LSU with Ark St coming to town. I smell a 21-10 victory in Tuscaloosa for the Tide before getting a win in Baton Rouge



Nothing is locked in so please give me your thoughts. :cheers:

If Lewis is healthy, I wouldn't touch CMU. IU has a much more dynamic O with him as QB.

I think Iowa is the play. Much improved team since Stanzi @ QB. Off a bye. Iowa has outrushed every team they have played this season. Illini were pushed around by Wisky on the lines, and IMHO Iowa's lines are better than Wisky's at the moment.

Auburn is falling knive. Stay away.

Like UF also. UF playing lights out ball, in a revenge spot to boot.

UK is really banged up on D.

I like GT lots !! Can't see a Paul Johnson team losing 2 homers back-to-back.

 

[RetroVK]

usf -- line seems right to me. trade qb's and cincy dominates.... dont trade them and usf is a 2 point fav here.

cmich -- lewis returns for this game for indiana off of a win. why does cmich care in this spot ??

uva -- can understand why you like but i think the game is a toss up.

uconn -- check their stool to see if they passed the horseshoe yet. wvu always dominates these guys. line is short begging for wvu maoney and wvu will be the square side this week but i think it is the right side. of course i never win when i bet vs uconn ...... uconn never a victim of bad officiating either .. zero holding penalties on wvu vs auburn defensive line so i will laugh in the first quarter when they are called for holding vs uconn.


illinois -- i lov eiowa here as iowa is on par with tosu and penn state and i think may beat penn state next week. every time illinois faces a team that can power run on them they lose or struggle. perfect matchup for iowa. even if illinois is playing well , juice is still qb there isn't he ?

auburn -- wow disagree again. auburn looks disinterested and confused and now play one of the most consistent teams in the country. nutt is doing a hell of a job. understand wanting that defense and points but after they quit last week it will be interesting to see if they can learn how to play with emotion again.




wondering what you think of your boys this week ? i played them .....

 

[pags11]

o-state,

I completely agree with your thoughts on Auburn vs. Ole Miss...

 

[Mags]

Dwight - I know that there is alot of love with VA here but I'd tread with cauion there. I've watched just about every Miami game, they played FL very tough, realy blew the game against NC and easily could have beat FSU too. This is a young team that is starting to play with confidence and are starting to believe in themselves, Shannon is doing a pretty good job down there. I know alot of teams are gue this but they could easily be 7-1 as opposed to 5-3 at this point...for sure 6-2 (NC game).

 

[booksbestfriend]

Auburn- This may be too late, but I'll chime in anyway. If you recall Tub's statement,"They will have to carry me out in a pine box". The very next week he took the AU job. Now, I realize that the players were still in junior high, but the fans have not forgotten this. This will be a hostile crowd, and most of the players were Ole Miss fans before they were players. Why else would they have gone there. It would serve them well to put a beat down on Tubberville. They hate him. The Ole Miss players will be amped up for this game. Ole Miss or nothing.

 

[Cadilliac]

Take it from a disgruntled Auburn fan who has taken Auburn in most every game this year...If Ole Miss scores more than 14 - 17 points, Ole Miss wins...Auburn cant throw past 20 yards with any accuracy and I formation run will only carry you so far...

Good luck but I am laying off this one finally!!!