Week 10 in the FCS

At least I can fall asleep tonight and not have to worry about waking up at odd hours to check a betting app
 
s--k said:
Tennessee Tech has outgained every opponent this year to an average of 253ypg. SEMO outgained them 401-299. YPP same. But that is a lot of offense production to put up on TTU.
Click to expand...
I watched most of that one. It was weird because Tech could have put up 50+ but gave up some head scratchers along the way
 
Stony Brook - Maine is an intriguing game. Maine 4 game winning streak although the only good/decent team they beat in that run is Elon. Kind of wonder if Elon was hanging head after kind of blowing their season and Villanova-W&M losses taking a mental toll on them. Maine really should not have beat them like they did 35-14 409-231 yard edge!

Stony Brook made QB change last week, starting the presumed future. Former walk-on kid. Too many turnovers out of Zellous I assume. SB O moved it and scored on Towson, but all were really long/high number of play drives, had to just lean on Dempster for 40 carries.

Wasn't sure who would be favored. Trust first road start for SB QB vs a confident Maine D? Under I would guess.
 
s--k said:
Stony Brook - Maine is an intriguing game. Maine 4 game winning streak although the only good/decent team they beat in that run is Elon. Kind of wonder if Elon was hanging head after kind of blowing their season and Villanova-W&M losses taking a mental toll on them. Maine really should not have beat them like they did 35-14 409-231 yard edge!

Stony Brook made QB change last week, starting the presumed future. Former walk-on kid. Too many turnovers out of Zellous I assume. SB O moved it and scored on Towson, but all were really long/high number of play drives, had to just lean on Dempster for 40 carries.

Wasn't sure who would be favored. Trust first road start for SB QB vs a confident Maine D? Under I would guess.
Click to expand...
I thought about Maine as this is one where one could argue wrong team favored
 
Butler +7.5 maybe? Drake only outgained San Diego by 27y and won by 3 and only outgained Marist by 23y and won by 14, but that was tied 17-17 3Q, not like Drake was leaps and bounds better. Drake D had a good 2H. Pretty decent O this year but not overwhelming. Butler is in the Pioneer hunt. Beat St Thomas, beat Dayton, played PC tough. Butler outgained Marist by 136y, but game was back-and-forth. Would like just a little more, but will keep an eye on that one if Drake money comes in
 
carolinablue said:
Mercer posted at -14.5…a little too high for me but wouldn’t be surprised if they blow Furman out
Click to expand...

Big thing I saw from Furman last week is they got their #1 WR back who was out several weeks. Think he is tFr and was lighting it up. He was back and lit it up again, 8r-126y. Makes the Furman O better when they have a passing threat. More concerned about the Furman D. Actually 53.5 might be low on that one
 
s--k said:
Butler +7.5 maybe? Drake only outgained San Diego by 27y and won by 3 and only outgained Marist by 23y and won by 14, but that was tied 17-17 3Q, not like Drake was leaps and bounds better. Drake D had a good 2H. Pretty decent O this year but not overwhelming. Butler is in the Pioneer hunt. Beat St Thomas, beat Dayton, played PC tough. Butler outgained Marist by 136y, but game was back-and-forth. Would like just a little more, but will keep an eye on that one if Drake money comes in
Click to expand...
Was hoping for 10.5 so will wait and see
 
s--k said:
Big thing I saw from Furman last week is they got their #1 WR back who was out several weeks. Think he is tFr and was lighting it up. He was back and lit it up again, 8r-126y. Makes the Furman O better when they have a passing threat. More concerned about the Furman D. Actually 53.5 might be low on that one
Click to expand...
Agree
 
14.5 pretty high for Wofford. They did score 31 back-back vs Furman and Norfolk before ETSU held them to just 10 last week. The score vs Furman was helped by a 66y pick-six, which Samford could throw them a pick-six. Their new QB gives them more potential now, but he's young. UTC O clicking and gashed Samford D, Samford D easily gashed, just Wofford doesn't typically have that kind of O...unless they are playing teams named Norfolk
 
s--k said:
Saw box score on the SLU game, that is a damn shame to not get the cover in that one. HCU had a 79y run or something and then had like 120y on all their other plays
Click to expand...
Yeah I watched that also as I had SELA. Plenty of chances but again gave up some head scratchers
 
Bethune Cookman is actually in the SWAC East race, a lot of teams are now that Jackson lost. If they lose again it could be like a 4 team race although I won't believe in FAMU being legit
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah I watched that also as I had SELA. Plenty of chances but again gave up some head scratchers
Click to expand...

The pick-six....one big run for TD and the pick-six. SLU had just shutout their prior 2 conference opponents and if they played again this week, I'd take SLU again and expect them to shut out HCU
 
carolinablue said:
Harvard seems to have hit their stride after they screwed my bet on them of course, so would be hard for me to pass up an 8 in that one but don’t think it gets below 10.
Click to expand...

I don't know. If you are only talking about the 2H vs Princeton yes. The prior 3 games in totality I wouldn't think so. Not many people are talking about Harvard nationally like they were a few weeks back. Not as strong really. I think Dartmouth or Yale could beat them. Not like Dartmouth or Yale are better, just that, it's the Ivy, splitting titles is commonplace.
 
s--k said:
I don't know. If you are only talking about the 2H vs Princeton yes. The prior 3 games in totality I wouldn't think so. Not many people are talking about Harvard nationally like they were a few weeks back. Not as strong really. I think Dartmouth or Yale could beat them. Not like Dartmouth or Yale are better, just that, it's the Ivy, splitting titles is commonplace.
Click to expand...
To me that’s what makes them appealing as they are flying a bit under the radar which could lead to line value
 
Harvard 9.5 yards per point the first 3 games (Stetson, Brown, Holy Cross) - 13.73 yards per point the last 3 games (Cornell, Merrimack, Princeton). Princeton led them 14-10 near end of 2Q last week.
 
The O is getting yards, they just are not scoring points. And that was vs weaker teams. Now they play one of the other Ivy top 3 teams.
 
sleepy said:
They're always day to day

I doubt he plays again this year
Click to expand...

Structural rehabilitation sounds serious. That would sound like something that would keep a player out. It's his non-throwing hand or wrist I think? Would seem playoffs would still be a possibility due to magnitude.

Last week was an alarm. Hampton. Avg 35 rush per game coming into last week, they ran it 49x and previously avg 38.8 pass att per game, 25 last week. And that shouldn't surprise. I had thought however that the new QB would maybe be good, coming here to run an O like this, maybe they had a decent recruit. Monmouth has had good offenses before Robertson. 4.9ypa passing, half of what they had with Robertson. Can see playing safer, on the road. But think that the new QB Weaver might not be the throw it around type anyway. 45ppg first 7 games, just 28 on Hampton D that was allowing 37.7 vs FCS
 
How about Delaware State - Norfolk State Over 55.5?

Norfolk is 4-2 to the Over the last 6 games and one of the failures missed by .5 (NSU-Woff 45 on 45.5 O/U). Have that Wagner game in there where NSU only scored 13 pts with Kuhns for 3Q. Kuhns hasn't generally been an issue. Just a little better than 50% passer, but he's got an 8-2 ratio the last 3 games. Don't need NSU to score a bunch, just contribute enough because Del State is going to do the heavy lifting. NSU just allowed SC State 51 pts and 613 ttl yards! The offensive juggernaut Wofford, they gained 435y on NSU and Hampton 438y with 41 pts. Really, 55.5...can DSU get close to that themselves? Wouldn't be unexpected if they broke 40.

DSU is 4-2 to the Over, last week I'm counting the closing number of 65.5 which was an Under since they combined for 61, there was that late safety, but if Mosley hadn't fumbled at the 1 NCCU would've had a TD instead and the safety never happens and they likely combine for 66. DSU avg 36 ppg in 5 FCS games and have to think they have a good chance to exceed that vs NSU D. NSU "only" giving up 33ppg, but some of that were against some bad Os like Wagner and Wofford and Towson week 1 with the Fr QB. NSU has allowed over 40 twice.
 
I took the NAU ML on the open, it's only a little higher now. With Wood back at QB for Idaho, that gives life back to a Vandal O that was worse than the stats showed vs UNC and was lifeless at EWU without him. So Idaho is going to have some potential with him at QB and makes for an interesting game and NAU hasn't always had the best D, worse D than they fielded last year. My NAU thinking is this Idaho D has been bad vs anyone that can pass and NAU isn't real explosive, but with Pennington, it's an O that can move it and be efficient and they should be able to do that vs Idaho D. Home on Friday night, Halloween. I think I like the team that didn't lose to UNC and EWU and that is NAU. Granted Wood missed both of those for Idaho, but the Vandall D is the D regardless. Coaching staff at Idaho still figuring out what works, I would rather have the NAU staff in this game.

This could be an Over as well. NAU is not a great Over team, but all their totals have been higher than this 54.5. Avg NAU FCS total is 58.2 and on that they are 4-3 to the Under with combined scores of 48, 69, 44, 48, 54, 99 and 69. Vs teams not named Montana State, NAU O did score 31 and 38 at home this year vs UIW and LIT. In FCS games Wood has played in for Idaho, they are just 2-2 O/U with combined scores of 67, 26, 71 and 51 on avg total of 53.3.

Both Ds can be vulnerable, but NAU is fairly balanced and Idaho can matchup vs the run better than the pass. Suppose I fear an NAU gameplan that wants to run as much or more than they throw and I don't want to be on both NAU and the Over. But will just be happy taking them to win outright.
 
Towson - A&T total feels a little high at 52.5. Towson on 4 straight Unders...although if they are going to start Kent at QB maybe he is a spark that keeps going for the O like it did 2H last week. He has his limitations, which is why they started a tFr over him since week 1.

Looking at their schedule and who they have beaten, man 11.5 is high for them. Campbell started out as a 7.5 pt fav at A&T and that got bet down immediately and closed 3/3.5 maybe even saw a 2.5. So is Towson 4.5 pts better than Campbell or 8 pts better than Campbell? I don't know because Towson has only beat Norfolk, Morgan and Bryant (which was by 2 and Bryant outgained them). I'm starting to question this Towson line more and more. Towson is just 1-3 ATS this year as a favorite and the one cover came at Norfolk week 1 in a game that was just 13-7 early 4Q (they won 27-7).

A&T's team has some life. I did think their O would play better than it did last week. Never the less, as dogs they are on a 4-0 ATS run (beat Campbell +3, lost to SC State by 6 +9.5, lost at W&M by 4 +20 and lost at Maine by 7 +13.5). They led most of the W&M game, but trailed big vs Maine and came back at the end.

I don't know, part of me is trying to rationalize taking the +11.5 with an A&T team that has to feel good about how they have been playing vs a Towson team that must be disappointed with how their season has gone. After initially looking for a lower Towson line, now I'm leaning A&T and Under
 
Lehigh...it's like, I feel they are a really strong team - they are the best total O and D and the best scoring O and D in the Patriot, they are ranked top 10 in the polls, they just don't win by much margin. Their lines actually had been pretty low vs their stretch vs the Ivies. LH is 5-3 ovearll ATS, but just 1-2 ATS as 2 TD+ fav (won by 17 as 14 pt fav vs Bucknell then failed to cover vs SHU and last week vs Fordham despite outgaining both by 246 and 152 yards respectively. So they are awesome ATS as anyting but a 2 TD+ fav. LH has outgained everyone by an average of 145ypg, but are "only" winning by 16.6ppg - would think it is more for decently respected top 10 team. Big line here vs Georgetown. If anyone has had a handle on Gtown this year I tip my cap to you. I have not. The dog in Gtown games has covered the last 7 and won 5 of those straight up. GT themselves have won 3 straight as dogs (Morgan on a hailmary :00, Colgate outgained GT by 111y, and Bucknell won on a 65y pick-six :12)...actually the Colgate game was sealed with an INT :23 that means that the last 3 GT games have come down to the final 30 seconds, each one. I would think that LH is going to be a really tough matchup for them, Hoyas probably have some confidence going in their lockeroom. Was kind of similar to last year, GT came into the LH game having won 3 of 4 and then LH was -1 at GT and Mountainhawks won 43-6! The D had a pick-six, a safety and a 1y TD drive after another INT to lead 36-0. That started a GT skid that saw them score just 9 pts in the final 3 2024 games. This line is just too high for me given how LH plays their games.
 
Howard, go figure. They are 3-1 straight up this year when dogged vs FCS (could've been 4-0 as lost by 1 at Richmond) and they are 0-2 straight up when favored!

These two have some history and the coaches have exchanged some smack talk the last couple years. NCCU -14.5 home last year Friday night hosting HU and only won 26-3 as 14.5 pt fav with a 536-121 (7.4-2.4) yard edge! Scored only 2 scores of any type on 7 RZ trips. Big fight at the end.

I might question NCCU's mental state after Delware State just beat them in Durham for the first time since 1977. NCCU is probably the right side? Been rolling everyone until last week. 45-7 at FAMU -12.5 +289 ttl yards. 50-42 at East Tex AM -16.5, but led 50-28 -33 ttl yards (ET AM 122y final couple minutes). 62-20 at NC A&T -13.5
+451 ttl yards!. Counting the neutral Southern game week 0, NCCU is 3-1 ATS as DD fav away from home. Would like to lay less than 14.5 but may not take it at all.
 
Long Island handed CCSU their only conference loss last year. LIU O woke up last week with their first 400y game since week 2. Stanzani was QB, haven't seen Greenwood since the SH game, he must've got hurt again or reinjured whatever it was. CCSU off bye. 4 of their 6 FCS games this year have been 1 score games. They breat Robert Morris 24-12, but RM outgained them by 81y. CCSU D has been shockingly bad this year. I mean allowing Robert Morris to gain 431 yards is proof enough. 437 vs SHU, 524 vs Dartmouth. I don't like CCSU as more than a small favorite so this just isn't for me unless I'm going to consider LIU. Line drop from 10.5 to 9.5.
 
s--k said:
I took SFU +7.5. RM was -3 at SFU last week and that game was only 17-14 mid 4Q before RM won 24-14. SFU +20y despite losing by 10. It was actually one of the better offensive games for SFU this year. 6.1ypp. SFU -2 TOs including a muffed punt which RM turned into a 3p14y TD drive. Wagner did beat Duquesne last week, and that deserves respect. Rare for Wagner to be a favorite, especially on the road by over a TD? Wagner was favored once this year and lost straight up (Marist).
Click to expand...

I believe the last time Wagner was a road favorite was in their 2 game spring covid season 2021. At Bryant -1.5 lost 7-27. The last normal season they were road chalk was 2018, season finale at Robert Morris -4.5 and they won 41-7. It was only the second time they were favored that season so RM must've been a special kind of bad that year. And Saint Francis could be called a special kind of bad. While I can't say I have seen them play since the Bucknell game a few weeks back, the Bucknell and Robert Morris box scores don't show them as playing all that bad. S&P has Wagner winning 21.4-14.7 and that is fine. But I looked back at the week 9 S&P+ and SFU's PR went from -20.4 to -24.7 ... just because they lost to Robert Morris? That was a competitive game. Last week S&P would've had SFU -1.9 on their home field vs a week 9 Wagner. I get bumping up Wagner by a few pts after last week, but adjusting SFU down more from close loss to RM? So I'm kind of ignoring the elephant in the room - Wagner beat Duquesne! Wagner's history as a favorite? 2-6 ATS 2018-2025 and several of those losses were straight up. If I was giving advice to somebody who is just starting to bet I would say "don't bet on bad teams"....but....I actually put a little on the SFU ML too!
 
s--k said:
Howard, go figure. They are 3-1 straight up this year when dogged vs FCS (could've been 4-0 as lost by 1 at Richmond) and they are 0-2 straight up when favored!

These two have some history and the coaches have exchanged some smack talk the last couple years. NCCU -14.5 home last year Friday night hosting HU and only won 26-3 as 14.5 pt fav with a 536-121 (7.4-2.4) yard edge! Scored only 2 scores of any type on 7 RZ trips. Big fight at the end.

I might question NCCU's mental state after Delware State just beat them in Durham for the first time since 1977. NCCU is probably the right side? Been rolling everyone until last week. 45-7 at FAMU -12.5 +289 ttl yards. 50-42 at East Tex AM -16.5, but led 50-28 -33 ttl yards (ET AM 122y final couple minutes). 62-20 at NC A&T -13.5
+451 ttl yards!. Counting the neutral Southern game week 0, NCCU is 3-1 ATS as DD fav away from home. Would like to lay less than 14.5 but may not take it at all.
Click to expand...
I considered Howard as they could win SU but I expect Central to take care of business but don’t like the 14.5 line in general so I passed
 
I have 7 total this week. Still debating SELA and Cookman but will wait and see what BM opens at on those as I would prefer laying a few less with each but don’t think that will happen.
 
Also strongly considered San Diego as a dog but ultimately passed because I have absolutely no idea what to make of them or Dayton as neither team is consistent in my view
 
I took some bets at like 3 or 3:30. Could barely see what I took and don’t really remember. I do know I passed in SLU and B-CU. Too high like most other favorites they release.
 
s--k said:
I took some bets at like 3 or 3:30. Could barely see what I took and don’t really remember. I do know I passed in SLU and B-CU. Too high like most other favorites they release.
Click to expand...
Was hoping for 16.5’s but knew that wasn’t likely. May take BC alt line at BM if 19.5 is available
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top