Week 10 CFB with writeups




redbearde

redbearde

Pretty much a regular
Spreads
Week 9: 6-5 +3.98 units
overall: 81-59-2, 57.0% +52.94 units

ML Dogs
Week 9: 5-6, +3.07 units
Overall: 35-59, 37.2% +16.73 units

Week 10 has some toughness to it. I see very few lines I'm interested in, though a couple of the dogs I might hit later on...For instance, UNC sure won't win, but I'm not so sure Notre Dame will bother to put up over 4TDs on em. If that line gets to where I like it, then I might actually put money on the tarheels.

Louisville -2 (+100) 2 units
LSU -2.5 (+110) 2 units
Wisky -7 (-110) 2 units
SMU -6 (+110)
Boise St -26.5 (-105)


Louisiana Tech +111
Army +224
Indiana +172

I will be surprised if I don't get a positive number on North Texas by or on Saturday. I would not be surprised to see that number get over 150...I'm shocked LT is the dog here......now maybe I'm a moron and completely wrong, but, well...LT outclasses the mean green. LT should win by a TD...at least.

Army & AFA. Not quite Army/Navy (i will have the dog ML there, too), but given Air Force's recent performances....giving a SDSU team a win when even Cal Poly didn't....I have trouble believing Army won't compete better than a FG here, I certainly have the coaching edge...

Indiana, well, they're on the road this week, but they're also on a fuckin roll. No big MSU comeback last week, and while I would love this number at better than 2:1, I would take it at 150 without blinking.

So far...............that's it for the ML dogs. I may take more, but I want to see what garf and MAtador have to say..

I think the lines are mostly right in the SunBelt this week, and I don't see a lot of value in the MAC, big 10, or big 12. I'm considering UVA (currently at 380), but I'm not sure FSU has much chance of pissing yet another game away. If I could be assured that it would come down to a FG...........heh.

I'm considering playing South Carolina (+118), but Arkansucks has been playing pretty well lately, and somehow the hogs have a shot at the SEC champ game. What's up with that? SEC guys, how do you like Arky at South Cary? Do the cocks go limp this week? Is Mustain getting better as the season progresses? Does Arkansas deserve to be favored at all? abcs? Space Geauxst? SEC experts, help me out here.

Also considering Oklahoma St (+670) at Texas. rj, SHSUHorn, any other texas guys? How scared of OkieSt are you? Colt is obviously getting to be quite the stud, but is this a letdown week after shooting a wad at TT? Is Texas's defense significantly better or different than Nebraska's, or could Okie St drop 35 on the longhorns...?

I'm asking all this because I didn't get to see enough football this week. I'm in Raleigh to see my friend's ordination, and that limited, well, a fucklot of my CFB viewing work/pleasure.

Anyone else who knows something about those teams, I'd like to hear it.

I sold Louisville when it was a pick. I think Louisville is a better team defensively than WVU. WV will have a helluva time stopping the pass (again), and I think part of both teams' recent struggles is an effort to not show each other some of their more clever offensive plays and/or series. MAybe I'm dreaming, but neither of these have been playing Great and Powerful opponents recently, and neither has been routing anyone. Even MTSU gave Louisville fits for the first half, though that was as much self-destruction as anything else. WVU's final scores look better, but those games weren't quite as dominant as they should have been. Between turnovers and incredible outperforming of the other team, well, I think WVU hasn't been at their best either.

heh.

Fuck. A couple WRs were bright enough to shoot a woman with a paintball gun. They were arrested. MAybe I'll sell this one off. FUCK.

I'm done thinking for now. It's been a long day. So talk to me, guys. Tell me where I'm wrong and why. Please.
 
Fuck. A couple WRs were bright enough to shoot a woman with a paintball gun. They were arrested. MAybe I'll sell this one off. FUCK.
Click to expand...

6 catches combined for those two cats, so I wouldn't let that affect your capping of this game.
 
Love the 'Ville, LSU, Wisky, and So. Carolina. Not too sure about SMU yet, but they look enticing. Curious why you sold points? Love to hear more about your thoughts with SMU.
 
Red could be a good chance to bet some dog ML .. the first few weeks in the nba. What do u think?
 
I might be on So Car ML this week..

This is a pivotal game for SC, its the difference between a 7+ win season and a below avg 6-6 season. SC has not beaten anyone they should not have yet. Sure they played Auburn and Tenn tough only to succomb to their own mistakes but I think Arkansas offers an opportunity to win a game maybe they are not suppose to. Rankings alone, Arkansas is around 15 or something right? Beginning of the yr I thought this team would upset 1 school (UGA, Auburn, Tenn, Florida, Clemson) beat the 6 they were suppose to (Miss St, Wofford, Flor Atl, Kentucky, Vandy, Midd Tenn St)and Arkansas was always that one game that would be the difference between 7 and 8 wins..

These two played a very close one last yr in Arkansas, 14-10 SC came out on top in maybe a game they were outplayed.

SC must win this game if they want a shot at a decent season. The key to this game is slowing down McFadden and Jones, much easier said than done. Force Mustain to throw and SC has a good shot at winning SU, let them run and it will be long day in Columbia...

SC must eliminate these crucial mistakes. You have to score when you are in the redzone.. They have to stop a team from converting on 3rd and 15+, see both Auburn and Tennessee game for that. This is a very young team so you have to remain optimisitic and think they will get better each week
 
u were pretty much dead on.. but i dont think a 7 - 6 and 6 - 6 finish is that big of deal. They will go to a bowl game either way. Newton has gotten better each game. Arky is vastly overrated imo, they could have very easily lost to vandy and bama if the kickers wouldnt have choked. Although this is more of a must win for them then yall, since they will prob lose to tenny and lsu... I like the coks with newton, but i would stay away here..
 
abcs said:
u were pretty much dead on.. but i dont think a 7 - 6 and 6 - 6 finish is that big of deal. They will go to a bowl game either way. Newton has gotten better each game. Arky is vastly overrated imo, they could have very easily lost to vandy and bama if the kickers wouldnt have choked. Although this is more of a must win for them then yall, since they will prob lose to tenny and lsu... I like the coks with newton, but i would stay away here..
Click to expand...

You are totally right... As far as the final record, It would very impressive if this team came out of the regular season at 8-4..Now that is looking like a distant possibility but if they came out at 6-6 than you say; "Well they beat everyone they should have, lost to everyone they should have" and imo, you never want to say that about your team.

I would love to have seen Newton in Yr 3 of QB. The kid is an athlete and has done everything for USC that has been asked. WR frosh yr, QB/WR soph yr, QB/RB/WR junior yr, QB senior yr...He has played very well for someone who recovered from an achillies tear and did not take many reps at all at QB, rather WR and RB..

This game means more for Arkansas because they are still in the SEC race but I could SC playing a good game because they are relaxed. They are not contending for everything, the pressure is off now just go out and have fun...

I still havent decided what I am going to do here, I might play small on the ML just so I can cheer louder on Sat or I might just stay away cause Arkansas owes us one..

Bottom line, force Arky to throw and you got a legit shot.. SC can play with anyone its just a matter of when they kill themselves..
 
As long as yall crazy drunks dont throw bottles on the field.. and wave confederate flags at game day ( which will kill yalls recruiting..) ;)

Either way, i am a huge newton fan its a shame he didnt start earlier at qb, or doesnt have more years left. I think rice leaves as well, no point for him to stay and play with a new qb. Oh well.. 6 wins is much better than yalls 0 - 11 season ;) Go Cocks!!
 
abcs said:
As long as yall crazy drunks dont throw bottles on the field.. and wave confederate flags at game day ( which will kill yalls recruiting..) ;)

Either way, i am a huge newton fan its a shame he didnt start earlier at qb, or doesnt have more years left. I think rice leaves as well, no point for him to stay and play with a new qb. Oh well.. 6 wins is much better than yalls 0 - 11 season ;) Go Cocks!!
Click to expand...

I'm just a Yankee lost in the south so I don't have 1 of those flags..

The bottle throwing has gotten out of hand the last few weeks as well..As soon as the jumbotron shows the missed call its over, expect atleast 100bottles in 10seconds...

I do like that the student section throws the opposing teams field goals/extra points out of the stadium... :smiley_acbe:

I personally think Rice stays..He aint done shit this yr in comparison to last yr. He isnt fast enough either imo and could use another yr to get that 40yd dash down.. We are young and return virtually everyone except Syvelle and a limeman.. Losing Syvelle hurts because he can make something out of nothing but I look for Smelley to get his shot next yr. I would be surprised to see Blake start out there. Hopefully powered by a strong run game, assuming Boyd stays as well, and an experienced Oline, they might do good next yr..Too bad the SEC East is stacked with UF, Tenn, and UGA, a fourth legit team would make that conference a wrecking ball of itself...
 
I'm probably gonna spend most of the week getting my NBA work started...but what do you think of Arizona State this week?

They finally sorta look like the team I thought they were gonna be after a rocky start that probably has a little bit to do with Sam Keller's departure...and Oregon State is in LET-DOWN city.

Question is whether +150 is enough for me to go against a team that just beat the #2 team in the country......
 
Red, even though I am a Ruston boy, I can't tell you anything about Tech. Haven't paid attention to them this year. Although, I am inclined to agree with you regarding that game and Army as well.

And I am all about that Indiana game, already played the line. I think the ML is looking juicy. It's what +196 now or so? Minny is terrible and Indy is, as you say, hot.

Other ML's I wonder what you think of:
msu +500 BAMA
wash +470
DUKE +360

Now as for Arky/USC, I have already taken Ark -3.5. I feel that the Cocks are going to be a bit down from the previous week. I think that Arkansas is a td or better here. I do think that Mustain and the Hogs over all are improving. This just appears to be one of Nutt's teams that is moving along, getting better as they go and winning games. They aren't spectacular, but they are slaughtering people now. Now, that doesn't make them unstoppable, UT or LSU will give them a game. But this is the type of game that the Hogs go in and win. And I like USC, I no played the Vols game because I knew they were capable of a competitive game with UT and, depending on the breaks could win or not. They killed in that Vandy game for me. They are a good team. I just think Ark brings it since they had last week off from the SEC and rolled ULM while USC won't be as sharp. And this is to say nothing of the Hog's run game. Very, very nice work they do with that. I think they bludgeon them with it and Arkansas wins going away.
 
smo1a said:
Love the 'Ville, LSU, Wisky, and So. Carolina. Not too sure about SMU yet, but they look enticing. Curious why you sold points? Love to hear more about your thoughts with SMU.
Click to expand...

Willis makes me nuts twitch. If they can stop him, then they can have my money.........don't think they will. And UAB's strength is their defense.

Why I sold points. Well, it's a style thing. Some folks like to eat big juice to get a better line. I prefer bigger line and lose juice. I almost never lose a bet because of it, and I save a fucklot more in juice than I've lost in bets. Do the math. Reduce your juice down to -102 or so overall, and you can suffer a significantly worse record and make money....or better yet, you can get damn near the same record and make a lot more money.

Maximize what you win....try to get the best ML dog numbers...
Minimize what you lose....pay less for the bet, and you lose less when you lose.

I don't always do it, and I don't cross 7, 14, or 3......okay, sometimes 3. But only when I'm pretty sure the game hinges at some DD level and not 2 or 3.

=)
 
JumpOnBoard said:
6 catches combined for those two cats, so I wouldn't let that affect your capping of this game.
Click to expand...

Thanks Jump.

Seabass said:
I'm probably gonna spend most of the week getting my NBA work started...but what do you think of Arizona State this week?
Click to expand...

As you say, Oregon St is in letdown city after that big win, but this is the second big win in a row they've pulled off. I thought they were done before 2 weeks ago, and I was wrong about that...Oregon St has been playing very well...especially defensively. USC mounted one helluva comeback, and there were some key turnovers that Oregon St capitalized on, so perhaps the win over USC is flukey...but they've been doing better and better, and I don't think that trend stops.

I much prefer homedogs, and this ain't there......also, Arizona St hasn't impressed me defensively at all. Perhaps they cna get it done this year, but i
want a lot more for it than 150ish...it's actually below that now.

Space geaust...

damn, I guess I screwed me on the Indy line. oh well. Such is life sometimes.

Thanks for the thoughts on Arky/Cocks. Maybe spurrier gets his kids back up after a tough loss on saturday. ...SC will definitely need to stop that run game...we'll see. Good health there. =)
 
fuck you and your INTs, Zabransky...

I added a couple days ago and forgot to put here...
Mississippi St +14.5 (-109) 2 units
Ball St/Michigan Under 48.5 (-109) 3 units
 
I have far less plays this week....thinking about wrapping it up except for the UTEP halftime fade...

Is 6.5:1 good odds on Okie St going into Texas and coming out with a W over the longhorns? That's a dangerous cowboys team...though my original opinion of Texas just outclassing them is hard to overcome. The question is does Okie St have a 20% chance of coming out with a win or a 5% chance.

Or no chance at all.

Texas in a letdown or lookpast spot? Okie st might be in a letdown spot...
 
redbearde said:
Absolutely free money.....and no bro.....I can't bet on the wolfpack this week.

Check this out.
Click to expand...

got ya..didnt see that thread...good luck this weekend...heading to raleigh after work...hopefully ill come back happy

if not ill be :cheers: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drink: :drinking: tons regardless
 
Spreads
Week 9: 6-5 +3.98 units
overall: 81-59-2, 57.0% +52.94 units

Louisville -2 (+100) 2 units - W
LSU -2.5 (+110) 2 units
Tennessee +2.5 (+126) 2 units
Wisky -7 (-110) 2 units
SMU -6 (+110) - W
Boise St -26.5 (-105) - L
Mississippi St +14.5 (-109) 2 units
Ball St/Michigan Under 48.5 (-109) 3 units
Southern Cal -27.5 (-105) 2 units.

ML Dogs
Week 9: 5-6, +3.07 units
Overall: 35-59, 37.2% +16.73 units

Louisiana Tech +111
Army +224 - L
Indiana +172
South Carolina +114
Miami, FL +118
Central Florida +195



As I look over my card and this week's offerings, I'm really not pleased. I mean, I wouldn't NOT take the bets I made, but with the exception of the Tennessee/LSU game, I don't like my numbers all that much. Most especially, this is true of the ML dogs. I go into today a bit concerned, but as I look, I don't see many plays I wouldn't play if given the chance to not play em...

Even Boise St I think I played right......I just got the ass end of the line, so when Zabransky threw the picks and the broncs just GAVE Fresno 14 points, well, I couldn't take that hit.

Army doesn't bother me. If I had lost and the spread wins...that bothers me. Playing the dog, sometimes your games get absolutely molested. That first turnover at the gal line set the tone for that game, and I'm just not concerned about discipline when it comes to an Army team...I'll be taking the dog at the Army/Navy game.....whoever it is.

Good luck to us all today guys. Unless you're against me. Then I wish you good luck on all your other plays.

Geez...Troy Smith is fuckin incredible...
 
abcs said:
I love all the SEC dogs this week.. G Luck buddy
Click to expand...
:hairout: I feel sick.. That would have been Miss st ML and Kentucky ML ..
But would be 3 - 0 ATS and Auburn is about to not cover..

:spank: Of course my dogs lose, i lose money on them, at least i had a lot to drink :drink:
 
Spreads
Week 9: 6-5 +3.98 units
overall: 81-59-2, 57.0% +52.94 units

Louisville -2 (+100) 2 units - W
LSU -2.5 (+110) 2 units - W
Tennessee +2.5 (+126) 2 units - L
Wisky -7 (-110) 2 units - W
SMU -6 (+110) - W
Boise St -26.5 (-105) - L
Mississippi St +14.5 (-109) 2 units - W
Ball St/Michigan Under 48.5 (-109) 3 units - L
Southern Cal -27.5 (-105) 2 units. - W

Week 10 spreads: 6 - 3, +4.98 units
total: 87-62-2, 57.6%, +57.92 units

This is good, because I haven't won a ML play yet......and neither Miami nor South Carolina is looking good. Louisiana Tech is utterly inscrutable.

:hairout:

when they're done, I'll post about those.

Spread plays went well this week. I'm pleased with them.
 
abcs said:
:hairout: I feel sick.. That would have been Miss st ML and Kentucky ML ..
But would be 3 - 0 ATS and Auburn is about to not cover..

:spank: Of course my dogs lose, i lose money on them, at least i had a lot to drink :drink:
Click to expand...

damn. I seriously considered Kentucky, but I thought UGA would show up more. What the hell was with that barrage of turnovers at the end of the first half? Was each offense TRYING to lose the game...?

:down:

Miss St I wanted no part of on the ML, but I got paid on the spread...I'll take it.
 
ML Dogs
Week 9: 5-6, +3.07 units
Overall: 35-59, 37.2% +16.73 units

Louisiana Tech +111 - W
Army +224 - L
Indiana +172 - L
South Carolina +114 - L
Miami, FL +118 - L
Central Florida +195 - L

This is extremely aggravating. UCF, Miami, and South Carolina all failed on game winning drives by throwing INTs. Hell, UCF even threw a pick6.

Week 10: 1-5, -3.89 units
Overall: 36-64, 36% +12.84 units

Very. Damned. Aggravated.
 
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