WEEK 1

bookieassassin

bookieassassin

Pretty much a regular
one unit

Nebraska -27 W
Hawaii +14 W
Fla +3/ML L
Minny ML L
Bama - 31' W
Ga Southern +13' W


smaller

Sam Houston +10' W
N Dame +3 W
FSU/GT 1H under 28 T
Tulsa -32' W
UAB -26' W
Penn St / WV 1H under 26 T
Clemson +7' 1H W
Fla St -16 L
LSU ML live. L


small

Rutgers -34' W
EMU +3 W
New Mexico +12 W
SMU -13' live L
ECU -33' W
NDSU +10' W
Wisky -10' 2H W
Cuse -14' live W
USC/LSU 1H under 34 W





might play - waiting for better #

Houston
FSU
NW
GASO
Bama/over
Fresno
GaSt
LSU

DOG ML leans
FAU ...FLA ... Irish ...HAWAII ... GTech ...Fresno 1H .... VANDY? ... EMU ... Michigan .... NDSU ... CLT ... NMex ... Minny ... BC 1H



$ All plays are about 1/2 the amount as usual (labeled the same to keep it simple) - some juiced to -113 or less.

Always a terrible idea to WAIT, drool on yourself > chase a bad number, BUT I'll grant myself a mulligan week 1 ha - hopefully I'll keep my card SMALL and CHEAP - get ready for weeks 2/3. I'll probably wait closer to kick-off to see if anything else opens up - smart thing to do (really) is if you haven't bet at this point - just watch the games and start week 2.


MUCH more later - busy this weekend - posting this now just to help jump start my old azz.

All the best this year boys ...... 👊
 
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I have not completed my looks but I like so far:

Vandy small. I think they have improved but over 50 transfers in. According to what I read they should be better but how much? I do like they had enough confidence in the coach to keep him on board. Or is it they are cheap and didn’t want more expense?

Fresno. Popular pick but I am not confident and Michigans consistency this season. Start slow I hope.

NDSU small
Colorado should win but until I see what they have on the field. NDSU I don’t know enough but with Nebraska on deck it’s not a good spot for a favorite.

Nebraska is sharp. Good D and laying this many that’s the exact recipe for success. Need to score points as well but they should get them.
 
spottie2935 said:
Nebraska is sharp. Good D and laying this many that’s the exact recipe for success. Need to score points as well but they should get them.
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Like the Huskers - guess everybody is scared to bet 'em .....

UTEP should get killed here - line should be around 35 IMO. Matt Rhule typically tears the program down year 1 - then shows a huge improvement in year 2. Whatever happens - we have the nation's #6 D (SP+) vs one of the nation's worst O's - Nebraska is basically playing Austin Peay 2023. Could happen sure - but I would be shocked if UTEP didn't get blown out here - I'll be playing an alternate line for sure. Hopefully Buffs struggle with NDSU - Huskers take care of biz here - (WE) can get a great number on Colorado week 2.
 
too kind boys thanks....

added small
New Mexico +12

currently -113/114 in spots - haven't played yet, but will, at -110 or juiced - (won't stay long at 12 so posting in advance)
 
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added smaller

FSU/GT 1H under 28

-115 at BM

Just for the action ha - game probably fine, I'm a 1H / 2H guy when it comes to totals. I don't trust FSU to come out strong here - GT competes for awhile at least - Criminoles probably take charge with running game late ...........

$ haven't played that NMU yet - 14 possible?
 
Georgia State is certainly no prize - new HC with a late start. But what a spot next week at Ga Tech.....

GT is fantastic in the dog role - horrific as a home favorite , especially vs non conference - and off a SU win. With a conference road game vs Cuse on deck - off an emotional/ physical game, and long road trip - solid chance they no show next week.

Since we know little about Ga State (few miles from GT) smaller play only probably - but a small ML play is worthwhile for sure (GT lost to BG and N Illinois recently). I would think it might go to 24 - I'll wait for that, or might play GSU 1H.
 
NO - not cashing my bet yet ha .....

But a reminder to go to a team's website - to see what transfers are on their roster - Steele doesn't have the room to list them all ( eliminate the fluff whydontcha)

Lobos have about 10+ P5 transfers on D - guys from Miami, USC, Auburn...are coming off the bench ffs
 
added one unit play (-113 at BM)

Minny ML


Minny a strong early season team / fades late > recovers for bowl season. Kinda fading Mack here - IMO he's done - never tough on the road, or vs the run. Minny should be able to run and control the game, hopefully QB play is improved. Really big game for PJ.
>> a danger here would be a dominate game / QB edge by A&M/LSU transfer Max Johnson - maybe a lesser worry as Mack has said that he will play 2 QB's - suggesting that MJ has not played well enough to set himself apart > can't read much into it, but if he looked great he would say "he's our guy" - for sure.


$ almost done with week 2 - will post those lines/leans/notes by Tuesday probably
 
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Hawaii for me is very fire now. I personally think they held back this week because of the focus on UCLA. They played a terrible team and didnt have to show out to win. Against UCLA they will be all in,
 
spottie2935 said:
Hawaii for me is very fire now. I personally think they held back this week because of the focus on UCLA. They played a terrible team and didnt have to show out to win. Against UCLA they will be all in,
Click to expand...

Could be wrong sure - I agree. Most guys will no doubt overreact and declare them DONE! (funny). I won't change their PR number at all - (same with SMU). I doubt they worked on Delaware State much at all - super low key week - coaches and players not invested at all.
 
bookieassassin said:
POOF!

UNC now favored - wait if you haven't bet Minny - see how high it goes (I saved a little bit myself)
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Thank you as I was looking at them but I waited to pull the trigger. I dont have a strong feel on these teams but the line flip makes this interesting enough to pull the trigger✅
 
Thoughts on WV +9? Penn St trots in with sissy Franklin as coach after running it up last year at home.....1st H I see is one of your leans....I think 1st H and game ML worth a look as well....maybe tease them up above 2 tds (I know that's not your thing usually)

GL BA
 
Hawaii ML +450? Had an opener to work out kinks....obviously didn't impress, and history shows that a team with a game under their belt doesn't mean much....but I dont think all games are apples to apples....
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Thoughts on WV +9? Penn St trots in with sissy Franklin as coach after running it up last year at home.....1st H I see is one of your leans....I think 1st H and game ML worth a look as well....maybe tease them up above 2 tds (I know that's not your thing usually)

GL BA
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Been staring at that one for awhile .......

I hate WV at 9 - because (we) coulda got 10'/11 - might work, but Penn State is tough as hell on the road - and in non-conference games. Line probably should be 10-12.
>> BUT we have seen these OL's rebuilt from the portal (like PSU) struggle early (SMU / Fla State). I like WV to stay close for awhile - PSU most likely to come back and win - always noting that - say if up a TD or so late - JF will kick a FG instead of taking a knee. In this one - teasing WV with the under is probably not a bad idea?
$$ I'll wait for a 6 1H / play 1H ML small - look for a live/2H play on Penn St - 1H under maybe too

I still like Hawaii +14, and the ML small. I didn't downgrade them at all from that shit-show last week. BUT - guys (are) probably too eager to declare UCLA done, before they even play FFS...... they could blow Hawaii out, or get their ass beat.

BOL this year buddy
 
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added extra small

E Caro -33'

Looking to play ECU this year - might as well start here. ECU does well in this FCS spot - has 2 good QB's that need to play a lot - tough stretch coming up early. Spartans off a tough late game loss - should get pounded here. ECU NEEDS a feel good home romp here, in a big way.....
 
bookieassassin said:
Been staring at that one for awhile .......

I hate WV at 9 - because (we) coulda got 10'/11 - might work, but Penn State is tough as hell on the road - and in non-conference games. Line probably should be 10-12.
>> BUT we have seen these OL's rebuilt from the portal (like PSU) struggle early (SMU / Fla State). I like WV to stay close for awhile - PSU most likely to come back and win - always noting that - say if up a TD or so late - JF will kick a FG instead of taking a knee. In this one - teasing WV with the under is probably not a bad idea?
$$ I'll wait for a 6 1H / play 1H ML small - look for a live/2H play on Penn St - 1H under maybe too

I still like Hawaii +14, and the ML small. I didn't downgrade them at all from that shit-show last week. BUT - guys (are) probably too eager to declare UCLA done, before they even play FFS...... they could blow Hawaii out, or get their ass beat.

BOL this year buddy
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I don’t believe in Eric Bienemy with this UCLA squad…backfire waiting to happen. Bows will cover, Bruins win 4 games this year.
 
Sam Hou ML+310? Rice really worthy of being dd favs?

North Texas ML +170?? Seems like a pick em game.....
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Sam Hou ML+310? Rice really worthy of being dd favs?

North Texas ML +170?? Seems like a pick em game.....
Click to expand...

Rice is probably a safe bet to win the game > ML parlay maybe. Nothing ahead - fine HC is building the program SLOWLY - one more win each year -so this game is important. BUT those dogs are -27 in TO the last 2 years - so sure might lose to anybody.

NTX lost too much to really go in there and compete, but SA with new HC who knows?

Not two of my favorite ML dogs - but if you're feelin' it, a small bet won't hurt.
 
Wolfeman said:
I don’t believe in Eric Bienemy with this UCLA squad…backfire waiting to happen. Bows will cover, Bruins win 4 games this year.
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I am with you here as I have no faith in Bienemy. I also see you got our mutual friend riled up across the street and I am loving that as you well know! ;) I am 99 percent certain that is you! :) Hoping this year is your most successful year yet! I would wish you luck BA, but you do not need it, as you alwaysss have a great year! :) Where is your friend Winners at?
 
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PRIMETIMEE21 said:
I am with you here as I have no faith in Bienemy. I also see you got our mutual friend riled up across the street. :) At least I think that is you! :) Hoping you have your most successful year! I would wish you luck BA but you do not need it, as you alwaysss have a great year! :) Where is your friend Winners at?
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His old crazy ass will show up soon - he's probably doing MLB now - it takes him awhile to remember the best place to hang out ..... BOL buddy
 
bookieassassin said:
His old crazy ass will show up soon - he's probably doing MLB now - it takes him awhile to remember the best place to hang out ..... BOL buddy
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Your close personal friend BigQueenQH sends his greetings. lol Those were the days! lol I appreciate your take on the Buffalos, and agree with alot of it, but I do think they will surprise many. I know from the talk in Boulder they cannot wait to meet CSU, and they have not forgotten the comments made by HC Norvell about Sanders, and the hit that Hunter took that put him out for several games. This talk about CSU has came up many times this summer around the football program according to Joel Klatt and others associated with the program. The first 3 games for Colorado will say alot in where the program is headed. I expect them to have a balanced offense this year with the portal recruits that came in. My lack of trust is in Shurmur and the DC. If somehow they do their fricking jobs well then the Buffs will have a successful season barring any significant injuries.
 
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We're all extremely lucky to have the GOAT of college football handicapping here on CTG. = BOOKIEASSASSIN

Over the years you've won and probably more importantly saved me a ton of money. I remember a 4 year stretch in particular where you won around 82% of the sides we disagreed on.

May this be your greatest most profitable season to date ...$$$$$$
 
PRIMETIMEE21 said:
Your close personal friend BigQueenQH sends his greetings. lol Those were the days! lol I appreciate your take on the Buffalos, and agree with alot of it, but I do think they will surprise many. I know from the talk in Boulder they cannot wait to meet CSU, and they have not forgotten the comments made by HC Norvell about Sanders, and the hit that Hunter took that put him out for several games. This talk about CSU has came up many times this summer around the football program according to Joel Klatt and others associated with the program. The first 3 games for Colorado will say alot in where the program is headed. I expect them to have a balanced offense this year with the portal recruits that came in. My lack of trust is in Shurmur and the DC. If somehow they do their fricking jobs well then the Buffs will have a successful season barring any significant injuries.
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Big Daddy! - forgot about that guy haha

They would have loved him over here..... his first sentence would have banned him forever. The genius of bringing DEATH THREATS to handicapping.......he literally had a team of assassins on standby to murder any poster that disagreed with him. A bit harsh maybe 🤨
>> side note : seems like he showed his love for our man D-UP by threatening to murder his entire family - and that was without knowing he was black - which would have made it worse no doubt.
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
We're all extremely lucky to have the GOAT of college football handicapping here on CTG. = BOOKIEASSASSIN

Over the years you've won and probably more importantly saved me a ton of money. I remember a 4 year stretch in particular where you won around 82% of the sides we disagreed on.

May this be your greatest most profitable season to date ...$$$$$$
Click to expand...

all the best buddy - just discussing your old pal Big Daddy QH ha
 
bookieassassin said:
Big Daddy! - forgot about that guy haha

They would have loved him over here..... his first sentence would have banned him forever. The genius of bringing DEATH THREATS to handicapping.......he literally had a team of assassins on standby to murder any poster that disagreed with him. A bit harsh maybe 🤨
>> side note : seems like he showed his love for our man D-UP by threatening to murder his entire family - and that was without knowing he was black - which would have made it worse no doubt.
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I remember he talked about chopping off my k*ds heads and putting them on his yacht in Lake Erie ...Appeared he was a plant there , they wouldn't even penalize him , but I got sent to the clink for telling him to f off ..lol ...


Love it over here ...None of that lunacy , just a bunch of bros handicapping, working together for the greater good ...
 
DOUBLEUP4LIFE said:
I remember he talked about chopping off my k*ds heads and putting them on his yacht in Lake Erie ...Appeared he was a plant there , they wouldn't even penalize him , but I got sent to the clink for telling him to f off ..lol ...


Love it over here ...None of that lunacy , just a bunch of bros handicapping, working together for the greater good ...
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Wow DOUBLEUP44LIFE you need to choose your close personal friends more wisely! We are lucky you are still with us! Amen to that!
 
PRIMETIMEE21 said:
Wow DOUBLEUP44LIFE you need to choose your close personal friends more wisely! We are lucky you are still with us! Amen to that!
Click to expand...


Lol . Yeah QH and I were actually roommates at one time...
Seriously thou no idea why he flew off the handle , we were jokingly ribbing having a good time...Dude just few over the CO CO'S nest ...

Best of luck to you Brother...May this be your best season to date Aaa
 
PRIMETIMEE21 said:
Your close personal friend BigQueenQH sends his greetings. lol Those were the days! lol I appreciate your take on the Buffalos, and agree with alot of it, but I do think they will surprise many. I know from the talk in Boulder they cannot wait to meet CSU, and they have not forgotten the comments made by HC Norvell about Sanders, and the hit that Hunter took that put him out for several games. This talk about CSU has came up many times this summer around the football program according to Joel Klatt and others associated with the program. The first 3 games for Colorado will say alot in where the program is headed. I expect them to have a balanced offense this year with the portal recruits that came in. My lack of trust is in Shurmur and the DC. If somehow they do their fricking jobs well then the Buffs will have a successful season barring any significant injuries.
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Not so fast prime… Buffs still have that major problem in the trenches in my opinion…especially on D line. That schedule won’t help either. I think 6-6 Bowl eligible would be about right. Coach gets em up for the rivals, but lets down against the average opponents. Just my thoughts. GL Brutha!
For example, I think they might have their hands full with that NDSU matchup tomorrow….
 
extra small just on general principles....

NDSU +10'

at Heritage - will definitely look to play CU live/2H if game seems to be slipping away from the Bison - early maybe if they can't run - and/ or get pressure on QB SS .
 
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