Week 1 Writeups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Here comes Week 1. Off to an 0-1 start after Navy's bed shitting, but at least it's only 0-1. This first game is one I want to jump on while the line is where it is.


@Utah -4 v Florida WIN
@UConn +15 v NC State WIN
Northern Illinois +9 @Boston College WIN
@SMU -20 v La Tech WIN
@Washington -14 b Boise State WIN
@Colorado State +10.5 v Washington State LOSS
@North Texas +6 v California LOSS
@Wyoming +14 v Texas Tech WIN
Florida State +2 v LSU WIN


Total 7-2.

1. @Utah -4 v Florida: This line was as low as 3.5 yesterday, then went back up to 6-7 and now has fallen back to 4.5 with some 4's readily available. Obviously, the availability of Utah QB Cam Rising is causing all this line irritability, but I've ben kind of hoping that the line was going come down as a result of rumors that Rising is unlikely to play. I actually like Utah at a short number without Rising more than I would a double digit line with Rising suiting up. Ultimately, I think everything points to Utah here. You have the ultra rare occurrence of a storied SEC program coming to Salt Lake, so even without a revenge angle from last year's game, Utah and their fans will be exceedingly excited for the game. If Rising doesn't play Utah has a backup QB who has won games on the road for them before in Bryson Barnes. Barnes also will have quite a bit of firepower at his disposal with JaQuinden Jackson(7 ypc last year) and former Florida State RB Micah Bernard in the running game and leading WR Devaughn Vele coming back at wideout. They lost Dalton Kincaid at TE but return former leading receiver Brett Kuthie, who was a monster in '21 and started ahead of Kincaid before he got hurt for the season last year. They are solid on both lines and have high level talent in the secondary despite losing CB Clark Phillips to the draft. On the Florida side, I don't know if you watched them play in that bowl game last year, but they were a corpse when they lined up against Oregon State and got manhandled by the Beavers. They gave up, didn't want to be there and proved that giving that kind of effort was eminently possible under Billy Napier. They have some guys I like, especially in the backfield and at WR (Ricky Pearsall) but Graham Mertz will have to be excellent for that offense to be effective in an environment like this, and he hasn't shown any evidence that he can do that. Utah totally struggled trying to stop Anthony Richardson last year, which among other things(Rising's uncharacteristic turnover-itis) led to the Gators home win last year, but Mertz is a QB the Utah defense can match up much better with. They've seen passers such as Caleb Williams, Bo Nix and Michael Penix recently, so I doubt Graham Mertz will offer anything to surprise them. I see very little chance for the Gators(as currenly constructed to win this one, so I'll take a short line in a huge spot for the Utes. They're going to be motivated to play at a level necessary to beat a top level SEC team, and this Florida edition is nowhere near that good.
 
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2. @UConn +15 v NC State: This is a play more on how much the role fits or doesn't fit each of these teams. UConn is in their element as a home dog (9-5 in the last 14, and 3-1 last year with all 3 wins coming outright). NC State is definitely not a good favorite, but especially as a road favorite. They are 2-7 in that role in their last 9, and 5-15 TS in their last 20. When you look at UConn last year, everyone remembers that they surprisingly made a bowl game, but when you look closely at who they beat, it isn't all that impressive. Every win was either against a poor opponent or a decent team that wasn't at full strength. However, they did all that with basically no passing game at all as Zion Turner was completely overmatched in the starting QB role. He started after original starter TaQuan Roberson missed the season due to injury. The good news is Maine transfer Joe Fagnano has beaten both of them out, and RB Devonte Houston beat out last year's starter Victor Rosa to get the nod after averaging almost 7 yards per carry last year. Although I'm a huge fan of the Robert Anae/Brennan Armstrong combo, I think UConn can make things difficult on a team that's probably taking them very lightly after clobbering the Huskies 41-10 last year. Former Maine Head Coach Nick Charlton continues in his second year in that position, after guiding Fagnano to some pinball type numbers in the passing game. After Charlton left for the UConn coordinator job, Fagnano's performance fell off last year under the new coach, but now he's reunited with the guy that mentored him through his best performance. If NC State sleepwalks through this game, which their previous performance ATS in these roles indicates they probably will, UConn has a great chance to cover this spread
 
Br@ssknux said:
Strongly considering Nebraska +7, but haven't pulled the trigger yet. Might add tomorrow.
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Same here. Although the more work I have done on this one the more the over 43 starting to interest me (I know you don’t do totals). Glad to hear you leaning same way as I feel like most the guys I respect here seem to like minny. I know Ruhle 1st year at his rebuilds been mostly awful but times different with the portal plus I don’t think huskers were left in nearly as bad of shape as his previous rebuilds! I mean they lost how many games by less than 7 last year? The last team he rebuilt was in ncaa purgatory after a horrible scandal! Little differing circumstance. Lol.

That 43 total and Ruhle having brought Simms over from Gtech to play qb def makes the +7 appealing to me. They expecting a very low scoring game and I feel fairly confident Simms can make some plays with his arm and legs!! That kinda brings me to the total tho, 43 kinda screams gophers football the last few years but are they gonna play the same run heavy style? Sounds like gophers strength on offense is the wr Corp so stands to reason they will throw more than previous seasons where the running backs were the best players on the O! 43 so low, if I’m right that gophers gonna throw more mo business having the total down there! As mentioned I think Simms can make some plays, if huskers trailing late he also capable of making a bad play that could add a extra minny score to the total. I don’t believe Ruhle will bottle him up tho, I think he will continue letting him try to make things happen.

Glad to see you bro, always enjoy talking ncaa fb with you and reading your thoughts! Gl this year!
 
Just making a note here: I just heard that TE Brett Kuthie is very questionable for this game tonight. That’s not ideal, but I still like Utah enough to lay the four. It’s asking a lot for this Florida team to come in and play Utah to a standstill in this environment.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Just making a note here: I just heard that TE Brett Kuthie is very questionable for this game tonight. That’s not ideal, but I still like Utah enough to lay the four. It’s asking a lot for this Florida team to come in and play Utah to a standstill in this environment.
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Utes gotta win this game, not just for them but for the entire freaking pac-12. Gators coming into town and winning this game even without Rising would send a awful message!!
 
2daBank said:
Same here. Although the more work I have done on this one the more the over 43 starting to interest me (I know you don’t do totals). Glad to hear you leaning same way as I feel like most the guys I respect here seem to like minny. I know Ruhle 1st year at his rebuilds been mostly awful but times different with the portal plus I don’t think huskers were left in nearly as bad of shape as his previous rebuilds! I mean they lost how many games by less than 7 last year? The last team he rebuilt was in ncaa purgatory after a horrible scandal! Little differing circumstance. Lol.

That 43 total and Ruhle having brought Simms over from Gtech to play qb def makes the +7 appealing to me. They expecting a very low scoring game and I feel fairly confident Simms can make some plays with his arm and legs!! That kinda brings me to the total tho, 43 kinda screams gophers football the last few years but are they gonna play the same run heavy style? Sounds like gophers strength on offense is the wr Corp so stands to reason they will throw more than previous seasons where the running backs were the best players on the O! 43 so low, if I’m right that gophers gonna throw more mo business having the total down there! As mentioned I think Simms can make some plays, if huskers trailing late he also capable of making a bad play that could add a extra minny score to the total. I don’t believe Ruhle will bottle him up tho, I think he will continue letting him try to make things happen.

Glad to see you bro, always enjoy talking ncaa fb with you and reading your thoughts! Gl this year!
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Thanks my man. Hope you doubled down on the Huskers spread and the under. That finish for Nebraska looked eerily familiar, wow. Sims was remarkably bad in important spots. I guess the fact they were right there despite the turnovers is good for them and tells you something about Minnesota.
 
Br@ssknux said:
Thanks my man. Hope you doubled down on the Huskers spread and the under. That finish for Nebraska looked eerily familiar, wow. Sims was remarkably bad in important spots. I guess the fact they were right there despite the turnovers is good for them and tells you something about Minnesota.
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I ended up playing simms rush yards and goohers qb pass yard props instead of total. I think gophers will most likely get better offensively, they are obviously transitioning to a much different offensive approach as their strength on offense seems to be more with the wr’s than the rbs, everything I read they seem to really like that qb but he was horribly inefficient last night, he barely cleared 178.5 yards for me and threw around 45 passes! That a massive philosophy shift for a team that has ran the ball over 66% the time the last few years!! I think only the service schools ran more often than gophers last year! That was Kaliakmanis 1st start tho, he will get better. There no way they throw it 20+ more times than run it in that kind of close ugly game unless they believe in his talent! Couple those wrs got some crazy talent (you see the td catch? How he managed to get that foot in bounds with rest his body way out of bounds before other foot touched down was amazing! and the play before that catch qb again missed the throw but same wr damn near found a way to get a foot down on that one but his feet left the ground just before he secured ball), all night the closer gophers got to the end zone the more off target kaliakmanis throws were off. My guess is he will clean those throws up, his wrs did drop a handful of easy ones also. It was ugly but I thought the potential is there for them to become a more modern offense that can put up points in the passing game,

Far as the Nebraska side I think it will get better under Ruhle, I’ll still happily take points w them as they showed once again last night they will play with most any teams, they just find ways to lose. Simms brings so much w his legs I think they should be able to figure a way to scheme him easy throws and plays where he only has 1-2 reads. Obviously when he forced into a drop back known passing situation it ain’t good cause he just locks on one guy and stares him down!! He also had this other problem at tech where he takes sacks that are totally on him. Gophers really didn’t generate much of any pressure yet he found a way to get sacked 4x in 2nd half cause he couldn’t figure out where the ball should go!!! He so gifted athletically tho, If they can’t scheme offense around him that a OC problem imo, I know I could design things that work for what he can do! Hopefully they will start to figure those things out and we can keep catching points with them! Pretty sure that be only time all year I get to bet Simms over 35 rushing yards! That number will be at least 60 going forward! Lol
 
Not doing anything other than watching tonight. Probably should have faded Miami(FL) until they cover a game (Cristobal is 1-11 ATS at Miami) but just couldn't make a strong enough case.

MSU also vulnerable to CMU, and I'm sure Emanuel will make them look bad on a few scrambles, but I'm not playing it under 14.
 
3. Northern Illinois +9 @Boston College: This is a play on what these two programs typically do in situations like this one. NIU had a rough year last year, going 3-9, but under Thomas Hammock, if they find themselves in the role they're comfortable, they are remarkably consistent. Don't bet on Hammock as a favorite, but Hammock is 12-4 as a road dog, and 8-4 in the non-con since he's been there. Even last year in a 3-9 campaign, when they were dogs, they covered, even when they played some kid they lured into the van with a candy bar to play quarterback. BC on the other hand is terrible as a home favorite(4-7) and in the non-con(4-10) in that same period. BC was a disaster offensively last year, especially in the running game, as Pat Garwo could never get going behind an offensive line that couldn't bust a grape. They'll almost certainly be better, but Northern is no pushover up front. Huskie QB Rocky Lombardi returns for what seems like his 10th year in college football, and although his chances to finish the game unscathed are almost zero given his history, he's good to go for now, and he's undeniably a playmaker. NIU hangs with everyone other than the 2022 version of Michigan, and there's no reason to think these two teams won't revert to their normal performances in these roles. This game should come down to the wire.
 
4. @Washington -14 v Boise State: Over the years, Boise has been one of the best road dogs in college football, and I've cashed a lot of tickets with them in this role (Avalos is 5-1 as a road dog), but there are a lot of red flags for me with this game. First of all, Boise was on the road to nowhere early last year until former head coach Dirk Koetter came out of retirement to bail them out as interim OC and got their offense to resemble a competent outfit. He did that by trusting in QB Talen Green and running the ball relentlessly both with Green, who is electric as a runner and his two solid RBs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, both of whom exceeded 800 yards rushing. Now Koetter is gone and they've replaced him with Bush Hamden at OC, who has a nondescript history as an offensive coach, most recently tutoring Mizzou's Brady Cook to mediocrity the last couple years. All he's talked about throughout fall camp is trying to develop Green into a pocket passer so he doesn't get hurt, effectively nullifying Green's best trait. The Boise coaches also speak constantly about their goal to win the Mountain West, so it begs the question as to how committed they are to unleash Green here, as they are thin at the QB position. On the other hand, Washington has bigger fish to fry, boasting one of the top 3 or 4 QBs in the country in Michael Penix and 2 of the best receivers in the country with dual 1,000 yard guys in Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. Defensively, Washington's forte is stopping the run, having finished 25th in the country in yards per carry against last year with most of their top 7 returning. Also, go against Kalen DeBoer at your own risk. He is 8-0 ATS in his career in the non-conference and keeps churning out explosive passing offenses. Originally, this line looked high to me, but as I looked closer at it, I think laying the points here is actually thr right side.
 
5. @SMU -20 v Louisiana Tech: I'm a little out of chronological order here as I thought this was a night game. Last week, La Tech did what any mildly competent team should do, which was dominate FIU in all phases of the game. However, despite doing that, they still managed to have to claw their way to a comeback win despite playing against a team that couldn't complete a forward pass. Call me crazy, but that seems a tad inefficient. This week, they'll have to face a team that CAN complete a forward pass in SMU. Tanner Mordecai is gone for SMU, but I'm not sure HC Rhett Lashlee cares that much as he's eager to get the ball in new QB Preston Stone's hands. SMU returns a lot on offense despite the loss of Mordecai and borderline All American WR Rashee Rice. 4 of their 5 offensive linemen return as well as their top 3 running backs. Stone will also have 7 guys who caught at least 10 passes last year back. 8 starters come back on defense as well. As for La Tech, they showed all the hallmarks of a team that can't get out of it's own way. Hank Bachmeier made the same throws that resulted in him being shown the door at Boise last year, they got penalized in extremely inconvenient spots, etc. I don't think Sonny Cumbie has proven much of anything, and that's probably why Texas Tech didn't really consider him for the head coach position there after his interim stint despite being a beloved former golden boy QB for the Red Raiders. He's already established some bad ATS numbers on the road, especially in his limited time in Ruston. Last year he went 1-6 ATS on the road, including outright losses at FIU and Charlotte, and failed to cover by double digits in the games he was dogged. Holding FIU to under 200 yards indicates nothing as far as improvement over last year on the defensive side of the ball, and the Bulldogs were one of the bottom 5 defenses in FBS last year. I think LT will bumble their way through this, but even if they didn't, SMU is a favorite in the American and is capable of dropping 50 on them even on a bad day. I could easily see 52-17 in this one.
 
6. @North Texas +6 v California: I got 7 on this one a few days ago, but that line is long gone. I'm still gonna write this up because I would almost for sure play it at 6 as well, though obviously, shop around and see if you can get a better number. First of all, this is a really tough trip for Cal. It's going to be nearly 100 degrees in Denton, and nobody at Cal has seen weather like that lately. I used to be a big fan of Justin Wilcox, and I still am when he's a dog, but they aren't built for the favorite role, and I don't like the matchup here. Wilcox built his reputation on defense, but he hasn't had any good ones the past couple years, and this one doesn't look that good either. North Texas surprisingly fired Seth Littrell after a bowl season, but reports are they knew they could get new coach Eric Morris and wanted to jump on it before someone else did. Morris used to be the head coach at Incarnate Word and before that was a very successful high school coach in Texas. He's an offensive guy, having spent last year as Washington State's OC. Littrell left the cupboard full for him, especially in the run game as his top 3 running backs come back and all 5 offensive linemen projected to start either started all or most of the games last year. They bring in Chandler Rogers to start at QB who was a plus QB at LA-Mo of all places, so they should be good offensively. Cal on the other hand brings in Sam Jackson to play QB from TCU. Jackson is an explosive runner, but there's no evidence he can throw, and the word is he barely won the job over a couple of nobodies because he has had all kinds of problems picking up the playbook. Cal is not in their element as a favorite and pretty much everything feels awkward in this matchup from their perspective. I'm taking the points here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
4. @Washington -14 v Boise State: Over the years, Boise has been one of the best road dogs in college football, and I've cashed a lot of tickets with them in this role (Avalos is 5-1 as a road dog), but there are a lot of red flags for me with this game. First of all, Boise was on the road to nowhere early last year until former head coach Dirk Koetter came out of retirement to bail them out as interim OC and got their offense to resemble a competent outfit. He did that by trusting in QB Talen Green and running the ball relentlessly both with Green, who is electric as a runner and his two solid RBs, George Holani and Ashton Jeanty, both of whom exceeded 800 yards rushing. Now Koetter is gone and they've replaced him with Bush Hamden at OC, who has a nondescript history as an offensive coach, most recently tutoring Mizzou's Brady Cook to mediocrity the last couple years. All he's talked about throughout fall camp is trying to develop Green into a pocket passer so he doesn't get hurt, effectively nullifying Green's best trait. The Boise coaches also speak constantly about their goal to win the Mountain West, so it begs the question as to how committed they are to unleash Green here, as they are thin at the QB position. On the other hand, Washington has bigger fish to fry, boasting one of the top 3 or 4 QBs in the country in Michael Penix and 2 of the best receivers in the country with dual 1,000 yard guys in Jalen McMillan and Rome Odunze. Defensively, Washington's forte is stopping the run, having finished 25th in the country in yards per carry against last year with most of their top 7 returning. Also, go against Kalen DeBoer at your own risk. He is 8-0 ATS in his career in the non-conference and keeps churning out explosive passing offenses. Originally, this line looked high to me, but as I looked closer at it, I think laying the points here is actually thr right side.
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I’ve looked at this game a ton and have mixed feelings, lol. I didn’t realize the stuff you mentioned them talking bout or they brought in mizzou oc which is incredibly uninspiring since mizzou offense has been pretty damn pathetic imo! That right there enough to get me away from any boise lean cause I expected the team we got after the change last year!! If that was the case then I would have questions like, is udub run d really so good it can prevent boise from controlling tempo or are their run d stats largely a product of the fact they ran out on teams and forced them out of running the ball? If boise isn’t gonna use greene properly as the driving force for the entire run game it moot, and I think you make a great point if boise wants to change him combined w the focus on the MW there a distinct possibility it not the boise offense I think it would absolutely have to be for them to have any shot here! Good stuff man, this why I love reading your threads, helps me sometimes see things from a perspective I hadn’t even considered!
 
7. @Colorado State +10.5 v Washington State: It's typically a good idea to fade Power 5 teams early when they are at group of 5 road tilts, and that's the case here. Colorado State was helpless early in the season last year, but they made some nice progress, especially offensively. Clay Millen is a legitimate competent quarterback, and they bring back 1,000 yard receiver Tory Horton who is an NFL prospect and a guy Washington State is going to have a hard time covering. Defensively, CSU ranked 31st in yards per play(albeit against some weak Mountain West offenses) but they bring back 7 of their top 10 tacklers and 8 returning starters on that side. As for Washington State, they have 2 new coordinators for the second year in a row, and although the OC was on the staff last year, the aforementioned Eric Morris was the Qb whisperer for Cam Ward. Much was expected from Ward when he transferred in from Incarnate Word, but he was pretty mistake prone in tough spots, beating up on the weaker squads. I think he might struggle without Morris. Defensively, WAZZOU was below average last year and brings back a few of their guys, but I think this might be a tough spot for them. I thnk the Rams will hang in here.
 
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8. @Wyoming +14 v Texas Tech: This is another play on a group of 5 home dog, and specifically on a Wyoming team that has been extremely efficient in this role. Bohl is 7-2 in his last 9 as a home dog, and this defense that he has coming back is going to be competitive. They have 2 extremely productive guys on the DL in DeVonne Harris and Jordan Bertagnole, and the best of the 3 is probably nose guard Cole Godbout who takes up a ton of blockers in the middle. I like Tech this year, but they are going to highest elevation stadium in the country and they have Oregon on deck. Wyoming as usual probably won't be able to throw it because somehow they haven't been able to find anyone better than Andrew Peasley at QB, but they can run it, and Bohl has said some nice things about his offensive line. The fact that this line has remained stuck on 14 despite a lot of hype for Tech says something in my opinion, so I'm going to take the home dog here.
 
Br@ssknux said:
8. @Wyoming +14 v Texas Tech: This is another play on a group of 5 home dog, and specifically on a Wyoming team that has been extremely efficient in this role. Bohl is 7-2 in his last 9 as a home dog, and this defense that he has coming back is going to be competitive. They have 2 extremely productive guys on the DL in DeVonne Harris and Jordan Bertagnole, and the best of the 3 is probably nose guard Cole Godbout who takes up a ton of blockers in the middle. I like Tech this year, but they are going to highest elevation stadium in the country and they have Oregon on deck. Wyoming as usual probably won't be able to throw it because somehow they haven't been able to find anyone better than Andrew Peasley at QB, but they can run it, and Bohl has said some nice things about his offensive line. The fact that this line has remained stuck on 14 despite a lot of hype for Tech says something in my opinion, so I'm going to take the home dog here.
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I’ve kicked around the idea of Wyoming ml quite a bit this week. Def agree with taking the points! It would be nice if Wyoming could compete a forward pass! Lol. Crazy to think Josh Allen played here! They usually have a big strong kid with nice arm who can also run playing qb, problem is they rarely can hit a target with any consistency!
 
9. Florida State +2 v LSU: I’d be interested in the dog regardless of who was who in this game but I’m glad it’s FSU. I’m high on both of these teams, but I’m not rushing to the window to play LSU as a favorite away from home. Ultimately I don’t see a whole lot of weaknesses with this Seminole team, so I’ll jump at the chance to take points with them. Offensively they can play any way they want to. They can run it with either of their backs and especially Trey Benson. Their offensive line is as good as it’s been in years and Jordan Travis has several downfield targets in Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman as well as their huge tight ends. Defensively they have Verse rushing the passer and very solid DBs. I suspect I'll be on LSU quite a bit this year, but in this game, I just like the way FSU matches up. I don't really have anything negative to say about the Tigers, I just remember watching that game last year and remembering how surprised I was that FSU matched them physically. This year, FSU knows they can match up well with LSU rather than hoping they could, and last year, the collapse down the stretch might have been due to a lot of their players not knowing they belonged yet. They all know it now and have huge hopes. LSU does as well, but I'm trusting a gut feeling I have that FSU will get the slight edge in play, and I'm getting a couple points to boot in their home state.
 
Think this 1st one im oppo you. I really like both teams also. It should be a fantastic game!! Neither team winning would surprise me. For me it just comes down to the dudes I expect lsu to have up front on d and the fact the minute brian Kelly came to a program where he can get as much talent as all the other big boys I knew he would be a force. Basically I’ll take Kelly over Norvell (even tho he has done a fantastic job getting noles out of the hell hole they were in and back on this stage), and even tho I like Travis for my money in a game I’m sure will be close I’ll take Jaylen Daniel’s to make winning plays! I certainly can’t blame anyone for playing fsu, I think this a toss up honestly, it just way to good a game not to bet!!!
 
2daBank said:
I’ve kicked around the idea of Wyoming ml quite a bit this week. Def agree with taking the points! It would be nice if Wyoming could compete a forward pass! Lol. Crazy to think Josh Allen played here! They usually have a big strong kid with nice arm who can also run playing qb, problem is they rarely can hit a target with any consistency!
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Of course I didht play the ml, I’m such a wuss! lol
 
2daBank said:
Think this 1st one im oppo you. I really like both teams also. It should be a fantastic game!! Neither team winning would surprise me. For me it just comes down to the dudes I expect lsu to have up front on d and the fact the minute brian Kelly came to a program where he can get as much talent as all the other big boys I knew he would be a force. Basically I’ll take Kelly over Norvell (even tho he has done a fantastic job getting noles out of the hell hole they were in and back on this stage), and even tho I like Travis for my money in a game I’m sure will be close I’ll take Jaylen Daniel’s to make winning plays! I certainly can’t blame anyone for playing fsu, I think this a toss up honestly, it just way to good a game not to bet!!!
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I was gonna mention this in the write up, but regarding Kelly v Norvell, I prefer Kelly as well, but they’ve faced off the past 3 years and Norvell has covered all 3.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was gonna mention this in the write up, but regarding Kelly v Norvell, I prefer Kelly as well, but they’ve faced off the past 3 years and Norvell has covered all 3.
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There seriously no good argument to tell either side they wrong on this one, the other day when I had a boise lean and read your case for udub you make some great points I hadn’t considered, pair that with udub offense scaring me anyways it was a good bet to get off (glad you cashed it!). There good cases for both teams here, the biggest reason I bet this game was cause it looked to be best game we have watched since last year!! So far it hasn’t been disappointing! I wouldn’t change my lsu bet tho, Daniels is still the most electric player on the field imo, I think lsu dline has had control for large parts but Travis is good! (He been very fortunate the couple times he made very I’ll advised throes and didn’t get picked off!! I missed the 1st drive of game so I dunno how lsu got all way down field and came away w nothing?

Anyways it looks like this going down to the wire. Good news is long as Daniels doesn’t pull any more thar crap where he runs 15 yards backwards and gets sacked im holding a winning ticket on his rush yards over 45.5! Gl in 2nd half bud, at least one of us win!! Lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
I was gonna mention this in the write up, but regarding Kelly v Norvell, I prefer Kelly as well, but they’ve faced off the past 3 years and Norvell has covered all 3.
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Chalk this one up to Norvell, he did a number on them at halftime. Gane pretty much got away with 2 drops, #2 on 3rd down after lsu crossed midfield when it was tied., then #11 dropped that one he got wide open when lsu was down 7 (it was little under thrown but still easy batch! next play was the int. Congrats man. Since game in the books I could really use Nabers to get 15 more recurving yards, that would have me up even with lsu loss
 
I hope I don't kick myself later, but I'm finding that my strong feelings in favor of Duke in tonight's game is mostly due to a rooting bias that I have for the Blue Devils. I bet it small pre-emptively awhile ago at 13, but now that it's hovering around 11.5 and lower, I'm just gonna pass on it further. If the same coaching staffs were involved this year as last year I'd have no issue and would be betting Duke all the way down to about +7 or so. However, with Riley running Clemson's offense now, there won't be that built in handicap that was there with Tony Elliott and the internal guy they had last year. I'm far from sold on Klubnik, but he'll have to really fall on his face to fail with Riley running the show. Too much unknown with the Clemson offense. If they click under Riley(and with Beaux Collins back healthy), as much as I like Riley Leonard and the Duke offense, they might have to get 30+ on the board against a top 10 defense with 8 starters coming back. At only 11 I can't quite justify it.
 
Br@ssknux said:
I hope I don't kick myself later, but I'm finding that my strong feelings in favor of Duke in tonight's game is mostly due to a rooting bias that I have for the Blue Devils. I bet it small pre-emptively awhile ago at 13, but now that it's hovering around 11.5 and lower, I'm just gonna pass on it further. If the same coaching staffs were involved this year as last year I'd have no issue and would be betting Duke all the way down to about +7 or so. However, with Riley running Clemson's offense now, there won't be that built in handicap that was there with Tony Elliott and the internal guy they had last year. I'm far from sold on Klubnik, but he'll have to really fall on his face to fail with Riley running the show. Too much unknown with the Clemson offense. If they click under Riley(and with Beaux Collins back healthy), as much as I like Riley Leonard and the Duke offense, they might have to get 30+ on the board against a top 10 defense with 8 starters coming back. At only 11 I can't quite justify it.
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I'm gonna ML it lol
 
Br@ssknux said:
I hope I don't kick myself later, but I'm finding that my strong feelings in favor of Duke in tonight's game is mostly due to a rooting bias that I have for the Blue Devils. I bet it small pre-emptively awhile ago at 13, but now that it's hovering around 11.5 and lower, I'm just gonna pass on it further. If the same coaching staffs were involved this year as last year I'd have no issue and would be betting Duke all the way down to about +7 or so. However, with Riley running Clemson's offense now, there won't be that built in handicap that was there with Tony Elliott and the internal guy they had last year. I'm far from sold on Klubnik, but he'll have to really fall on his face to fail with Riley running the show. Too much unknown with the Clemson offense. If they click under Riley(and with Beaux Collins back healthy), as much as I like Riley Leonard and the Duke offense, they might have to get 30+ on the board against a top 10 defense with 8 starters coming back. At only 11 I can't quite justify it.
Click to expand...

I lean duke as well but have reservations. I played them +7.5 1st half but my biggest play is Leonard ov 191.5 passing yards. I’m not sure duke will be able to run on the tigers so I think Riley gonna have to make plays thru the air.
 
KJ said:
I'm gonna ML it lol
Click to expand...
KJ, after I saw this post I said what the hell, and did it too. I’d liked them in this spot since June, at least have something on the ML. It wasn’t much, but it would have been zero otherwise. Thanks my man!
 
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