Week 1 Write Ups and Hopefully Feedback

Br@ssknux

Br@ssknux

Pretty much a regular
Well, hopefully everyone is doing well as we mosey into the best time of the year. I can't be the only guy who's favorite month is September, can I? This looks like it'll be a pretty interesting year. Just about every team in the country has every Tom Dick and Harry returning on their depth charts, so it lends itself to what might be some competitive football. The only college football players from last year who aren't back this year basically fall in 3 categories: 1. NFL draft picks. 2. Actual college students who graduated and are ready to start actual jobs and become adults, or 3. Guys who wore out their welcome and nobody wants. Everyone else is back. We've never seen the likes of this before, so who knows? I've always looked for reason to bet underdogs, like a lot of you on here, and I don't suspect this year will be any different.

Usually week 1 leaves little need for running head to head matchup comparisons, but this year, so many rosters have seen so little turnover that looking at week 1 as somewhat of a continuation of last year(assuming no coaching changes) has some merit.

Week 1 turned out to be pretty easy for me, which I assume is the case for everybody, as it doesn't take a genius to come to the conclusion that fading UConn, New Mexico State and Scott Frost as a TD+ road favorite might make some sense.

Ohio State -14 PUSH
Boise State +6 WON
Iowa -3 WON
Western Michigan +17 LOST
Alabama -19.5 WON
Maryland +3(-120) WON
Louisiana Tech +23 WON
San Jose St +14 LOST
Texas Tech +1.5 WON
Clemson -3 LOST
UCLA +3(-120) WON
Utah State +18 WON




Thursday:

1. Ohio State -14 @Minnesota: Well, here's the douchebag who calls himself a dog bettor immediately laying two TDs with a road favorite. Not ideal, but there's a few reasons for this. First of all, Ryan Day has been money on the road, 6-1 so far as a road favorite, and he has given every indication that wagering against him might not be a great idea. Although I'm sure you could conjure up some reasons for optimism for the Gophers because they're bringing a lot of their rank and file back, the one thing that conjures no good feelings for me is that terrifyingly bad run defense the Gophers trotted out a year ago. 124th on a per carry basis, and they were bad just about every week and atrocious in a few other cases (Maryland). It's a lot of the same faces and it's the same staff and scheme, so assuming that they just magically have the ability to stop this Buckeye offense from gashing them for 7-8 yards per carry isn't based on any sensible logic. Talking heads have been spilling the beans that Top national recruit TreVeyon Henderson is better than JK Dobbins ever was right now according to "observers". Whether that's true or not is irrelevant, because the first Buckeye freshman you round up on the quad on the first day of classes in Columbus could probably run for 180 yards and two scores on that Minnesota run defense if they aren't drastically improved from what they were last year. I'll hitch my wagon to Day and co and their road pedigree here.

2. Boise State +6 @ UCF: Kudos to UCF for snagging Malzahn. I know he fell out of favor at Auburn, but what other coach has the accomplishments he had on the plains over the last few years. He ran the offense that won a National Championship and then came within a whisker of a second one as a head coach a few years later. Several wins over some vintage Saban Alabama teams when they were at their peak and the ability to recruit with all the big boys, Frankly, among Auburn, Tennessee and UCF in that game of coaching musical chairs, I'd suggest that UCF walked away with the best guy. I'm definitely bullish on UCF long term, but I think we're getting ahead of ourselves by letting this spread approach a TD. I know we're all looking at UCF's offense and dreaming what Malzahn will do with an accurate QB like Taylor Gabriel, but in this matchup, we also have to remember that Hank Bachmeier(and if necessary) Jack Sears are both capable of throwing the ball all day long on a UCF defense that couldn't be bothered to stop anybody last year. Although it's true that Boise looks vulnerable against that UCF offense, their strength is up front, and the Malzahn scheme's MO is the running game which Boise might be poised to stop. Andy Avalos is a Boise lifer, having played under Dan Hawkins and coached under Petersen and Harsin, so he'll continue the culture there. Offensively, Boise will be able to score, so UCF will have to totally expose Boise's D to cover more than 6, and I like Boise's chances to be as competitive as they usually are on both sides of the ball here.
 
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im not a huge fan of laying 2 tds but i cant make any kind of reasonable argument to go against osu..

ucf offense is scary but i agree taking boise getting 6 points in a game like this never a bad bet... gl this season
 
Gonna throw this one in there a little out of chronological order while the number is where it is.

3. @Iowa -3 v Indiana: I actually grabbed this one on the money line when it got down to -131 but that's not available now so I'll list it at the available line. I'd still lay a FG here even though with these 2 defenses, every half point could be important. I've definitely come to respect what Indiana has been doing over the past few years. They've been very reliable as a dog against the big boys in the Big Ten East and it's obvious that they believe in Tom Jones or Tom Adams or whatever his name is. Last year everything came together for them and I've read a couple pieces that indicate that Indiana people think this might be the best team they've EVER HAD. Like, ever. It's hard to argue that because there aren't a lot of teams in the Hoosier past who would compare to this one, which has virtually everyone back from a team that the Big Ten was forced to change a published rule in order to exclude from the B10 title game. Even in a dream season, however, the Indiana offense ranked 90th in total offense yards per play, 111th in yards per rush, 79th in 3rd down conversions and 105th in 3rd down conversions. In a nutshell, they succeeded despite a pretty bad offense by the numbers, and benefitted from some nice turnover luck. Now in week one they are forced to travel to a historically tough place to play who happens to have everyone back on a defense who ranked 1st in yards per play against, 5th in yards per rush against, and 6th in yards per pass attempt against. That looks like tough sledding ahead for the Hoosiers. In their defense, I do see them as having an edge over the Petras led Hawkeye attack, but Iowa should be able to run on them. In my opinion, asking Indiana to win this game darn near outright to cash a ticket is a tall order. If not for a couple unlucky plays, Iowa could have easily been undefeated, and the fact that they had their bowl game cancelled contributes to them comin in totally under the radar this year. Petras showed some late improvement in the Illinois and Wisconsin games last year indicating their offense could be ok. We know their defense will be top notch. I'll lay the short number with the Hawkeyes at home.
 
i would think hoosiers outta improve in those offensive areas with their qb back, still no interest in backing them here.. always tough to know how these teams who start exceeding expectations will do when they start having real expectations! lol
 
Kudos to PJ Fleck on the coaching job he did last night. He probably came into that game knowing that his defense can't stop a soul, and they couldn't as OSU averaged more than 10 YARDS PER PLAY. But PJ limited OSU to only 48 plays, which is an obscenely low number. Much of that was due to a defensive score and the fact that it usually only took OSU a couple plays to score when they had the ball, but hey, credit given.

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but did Boise have negative yards in the second half until that final drive? Their offense was humming along pretty good in the first half, and then someone pulled the emergency brake. That might not bode well for the new Boise staff's ability to adjust at halftime.
 
CTJ24 said:
If you’ve got any input on PSU/WISC, IND/IA would love to go through it. Great write ups. Good luck!
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Indiana/Iowa is above, but I'm not getting involved with PSU/Wisconsin. Both teams will have good defenses but I don't trust either offense to be able to move the ball. I suppose if the line gets too high it might make sense to take the points with Penn State, but there's just not enough there for me to have a positive opinion on either team in this one. Sorry CT!!
 
4. Western MIchigan +17 @Michigan: I had to buy this up to 17 after it had been there awhile Not sure where the line will go from here, but I'm in at 17. Although it was a short sample size, the Broncos proved that they can definitely score last year, and Tim Lester can do it in a number of ways. Like most non power 5 schools, just about everyone is back with the exception of 2nd round draft pick WR D'Wayne Eskridge. Everyone else on offense returns as well as 12 of their top 13 tacklers on defense. They ranked second in the country in yards per pass attempt, and 6th in overall yards per play. QB Kaleb Eleby returns and looks poised to pick up right where he left off with all 5 of his linemen back and all but Eskridge back in the skill spots. Defensively, they were solidly average and are loaded with upperclassmen in their 2 deep. Usually I would be nervous that a team like Michigan would maul a MAC squad, but there's nothing in the past couple years of results from Michigan that would indicate that such a scenario is logical. Last season, Michigan famously finished only 2-4, but a perusal of the box scores show that this record was no fluke. They were out gained by Michigan State on the way to a home loss as a 22 point favorite They were outgained by more than 100 yards by Indiana. They were outgained by 250 yards by a Wisconsin team that proved to be a paper tiger. They were outgained by 100+ by a Penn State team that started 0-5. Defensively, they gave up 486 yards to Rutgers, 449 to Michigan State and 468 to Wisconsin, the #118, 108 and 106 ranked offenses in yards per play in the country. They ranked 103rd on 3rd down on defense and 110th in sacks. My guess is that the #2 returning pass offense will find that lack of pressure to their liking, and I would suggest that WMU will sport a much more explosive offense than any of the 3 I mentioned did last year. Michigan has 7 underclassmen starters, and has to lean a new scheme as long time DC Don Brown was launched after last year's performance. If WMU has early success, I can see this as a dogfight for Michigan. WMU can definitely score and Michigan will have to show major improvement with the same players to get to a point where they qualify as a net positive on the defensive side of the ball. 17 is a lot of points here.
 
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5. Alabama -19.5 v Miami(FL): If anything Miami has proven to be the classic bully. They can push around the weaklings, but they turn tail and run when they have to line up with the big boys. This is especially true for them defensively. They'll lay the wood to Duke or look solid against offenses like Pitt or Virginia, but when it's Clemson or North Carolina, the Miami defense becomes helpless. I realize that people think that Steve Sarkisian was somehow responsible for the success of Alabama's offense last year, but his departure will do nothing to change the fact that this is a monumental coaching mismatch between any staff run by Nick Saban and any one headed by Manny Diaz. The fact that Diaz will be "more involved" in the defense should elicit laughter from any non-Canes fan. Did anyone watch them try to play defense against North Carolina last year? That's what happens when they are matched up with equal or superior players who have some semblance of what they're doing, and I'm sure Saban will be trotting plenty of high quality athletes tomorrow afternoon. On the flip side, it'll be D'Eriq King fresh off an ACL tear against the world. He might make a few plays, but Bama's defense looks to be right there with the best in the country. I don't like laying points like this, but I'm not getting in Alabama's way and I certainly don't mind fading Manny Diaz and a clueless defense in a spot like this.
 
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6. @Maryland +3(-120) v West Virginia: In this case, I just don't see how West Virginia can be justified as a road favorite. Last year, they were 2 different teams: At home they were tough and handled people. On the road they looked scared and uncompetitive, especially in the finale where they got rolled 42-6 in Ames as only a 6.5 point dog. I've never been a fan of Jarred Doege. He's not bad, but he seems to come up small in tough spots. Offensively, the Mountaineers were not particularly strong in any area, ranking 91st in yards per play, 110th in rushing and 84th in yards per pass attempt. Maryland's only Achilles heel on defense was against the run, but the DL is considered to be a major source of improvement and they were stellar against the pass last year, with their secondary coming back intact. Offensively, Maryland is much more explosive on offense than WV, and they have looked super impressive in their home openers under Locksley, destroying a ranked Syracuse team in '19 and blowing the doors off Minnesota to the tune of 675 yards last year. All reports are that it's a sellout in College Park so the atmosphere should be positive for the Terps. To me, it's hard to justify making WV a road favorite here, so I'll take the FG and look for the Terps to continue their solid early season home efforts.
 
I like wvu d but I agree I don’t think they should be road favs here. If terps can protect Tua brother I think they win.
 
7. Louisiana Tech +23 @ Mississippi State: Under Skip Holtz, La Tech has been a bit of a weird team. They usually have pretty good results on the field, and they also seem to fare well as a dog, but when you peruse the stats, you tend to wonder why because they never really look good on paper. Take last year for example: They went 5-4, won 3 teams outright as an underdog, but didn't rank any higher than 85th in any meaningful category that I track as important. This year, they have just about everyone back(like most of the group of 5 teams) and are expected to compete for a title in their division in Conference USA. Off they go now to open the season in Starkville against Mike Leach's squad, and frankly, I like their chances to compete here. Don't get me wrong, I'm definitely a Mike Leach fan, and I've been able to pile up some cash backing him over the years, but early in the season as a large favorite is not a role that his teams generally perform well in. Remember that 2 of his better Washington State team (2015 and 2016) lost back to back season openers outright to Portland State and Eastern Washington respectively. It generally takes awhile for his offense to take off, and it definitely didn't happen last year. After a remarkable start in the opener against LSU, their offense never was the same again, stumbling to a #126 ranking in the country in yards per rush and 111th in yards per pass attempt. KJ Costello got benched and Will Rogers eventually took over, but he hovered around 5 yards per pass attempt for most of his starts. Rogers is the starter this year and the OL doesn't appear to be much better. I assume the Bulldogs will improve as the year moves forward, but although their defense is very solid, I don't see them scoring enough points to cover this unless LaTech scores in single digits. La Tech is almost always a competitive bunch, so I'll take the 23 here and make the MSU offense beat me.
 
8. San Jose State +14 @USC: Based on what they did during the year last year, one of the most shocking results of the bowl season was San Jose State's non-competitive loss to Ball State. Ball State wasn't bad, but SJSU came into that game undefeated. Everything went wrong from the jump, and I lost my shorts in the process. Despite that, it was a great season for the Spartans, who won the Mountain West title for the first time in who knows how many years. They were outgained only twice all year, and spent most of the season thoroughly handling just about everyone on their schedule. They outgained Boise, Nevada and Hawaii by 100+ yards in back to back to back weekends, proving that their wins were no fluke. They are loaded on both lines and expect themselves to be dominant in the trenches. On the OL, all 7 guys who played any significant minutes are back. On the defensive line, every player who registered a tackle for them last year is back...this is a legit group of linemen. I actually expect them to get the better of the line play in this game, especially when USC tries to run the ball. I don't see USC being able to run effectively in this game. They ranked 115th in the country last year and SJSU ranked 13th in stopping the run. USC's run defense was also mediocre, so there's a chance the Spartans will run on them as well. SJSU's strength on offense however is QB Nick Starkel who threw for a 17/7 ratio last year. SJSU didn't get a chance to compete against the big boys last year, but they get a chance right off the jump this year, and I expect them to put heir best foot forward. With a potential edge in he trenches, a solid QB and what looks to be a coaching edge in their favor, I can see a shot at the outright win, so I'll gladly take the 2 TDs.
 
9 Texas Tech +1.5 v Houston: Although this game is in Houston, it's a neutral site game in the Texans' stadium. I am just not a believer in this Dana Holgerson squad. For the second consecutive year, Houston has looked lackluster and if you count Holgerson's last year in Morgantown, that's 3 lackluster years in a row. Holgerson kind of reminds me of a twice recycled Kevin Sumlin...just kind out there, too cool for everyone just riding out another paycheck. His QB Clayton Tune is average at best, and although most people who suggest that Houston is a good offensive team, they ended up solidly mediocre with a yards per play ranking of 72nd, along with 60th and 86th rankings against the run and pass respectively. Texas Tech on the other hand had some impressive defensive performances and a couple narrow losses last year. I've always been a fan of Matt Wells, and I suspect his team is ready to take the next step. They return a solid run game and bring in Tyler Shough, the former starter at Oregon to run the show. On defense , all but one of their top 20 tacklers are back. Houston has been just an average AAC squad the past couple of year, I don't think they should be favored against a Big 12 team that's making positive progress.
 
Br@ssknux said:
5. Alabama -19.5 v Miami(FL): If anything Miami has proven to be the classic bully. They can push around the weaklings, but they turn tail and run when they have to line up with the big boys. This is especially true for them defensively. They'll lay the wood to Duke or look solid against offenses like Pitt or Virginia, but when it's Clemson or North Carolina, the Miami defense becomes helpless. I realize that people think that Steve Sarkisian was somehow responsible for the success of Alabama's offense last year, but his departure will do nothing to change the fact that this is a monumental coaching mismatch between any staff run by Nick Saban and any one headed by Manny Diaz. The fact that Diaz will be "more involved" in the defense should elicit laughter from any non-Canes fan. Did anyone watch them try to play defense against North Carolina last year? That's what happens when they are matched up with equal or superior players who have some semblance of what they're doing, and I'm sure Saban will be trotting plenty of high quality athletes tomorrow afternoon. On the flip side, it'll be D'Eriq King fresh off an ACL tear against the world. He might make a few plays, but Bama's defense looks to be right there with the best in the country. I don't like laying points like this, but I'm not getting in Alabama's way and I certainly don't mind fading Manny Diaz and a clueless defense in a spot like this.
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My man...GL this season Brass
 
10 Clemson -3 v Georgia: I hate to take the square side on this one, but I can't expect Georgia to win this game when they are as banged up as they are and Clemson is healthy. The Dawgs are missing at least 3 meaningful starters, including George Pickens who is their most alarming playmaker at WR. Clemson obviously loses a lot on offense, but they have DJ Uialalele, who has already seen about as pressure packed a situation you could ever conjure up last year in South Bend and he performed very well...breaking the opponent record for passing yards in a game at Notre Dame stadium. Clemson's defense is regarded as the best in the country and they are still fighting off the embarrassment of losing that beatdown they took at the hands of Ohio State, and they've probably had a collective nervous tick ever since that game ended to get back on the field. I trust the pedigree of the Clemson program and staff more than I do Georgia and I think they'll take care of business here.
 
11. @UCLA +3 v LSU (-118): I hope I don't embarrass myself here Twink...I'm sure you'll set me straight if I'm misreading anything.....
LSU had some hellaciously bad numbers on defense last year...it's a wonder their offense put up enough points to get them to .500. They ranked 125th in yards per play and 124th in passing yards per attempt on defense. Against the run? Only 94th, not bad! They gave up 550+ yards in a game 5 times. Luckily for them Vandy and South Carolina were on the schedule from the East or it would have been more. On the offensive side, they scored points, but they didn't do it impressively, as they couldn't run the ball and were mediocre in the passing game. UCLA didn't have a great record, but they were good in the trenches (25th in rush offense and 24th against the run) and Chip Kelly fashioned a decent passing attack despite having QBs shuttled in and out of the lineup due to COVID. I wasn't involved in UCLA's game last week against Hawaii, but Hawaii came into the season as no pushover and UCLA pretty much pushed them over, dominating in the trenches to the point where the game was over before it was 20 minutes old. LSU is a different animal, but not to the point they have been historically. They had to revamp the staffs on both sides of the ball, and Coach O usually needs the the very top of the top notch assistant coaches to prop him up. Unfortunately, there's no Dave Aranda or Joe Brady walking through that door, but they do have the poor man's version of those two, with former Aranda assistant Daronte Jones(by way of various NFL staffs recently) and Brady understudy Jake Peetz via the Panthers staff. We'll see how that goes, but first things first, they'll need the offensive line to stop getting mauled and the defensive backfield to start covering somebody really fast. DTR didn't look that great for UCLA last week, but I'll bet he's more focused this week, and if the UCLA run game continues how it looked last week and last year for that matter, LSU could be susceptible to the same kind of leaky secondary they were plagued by last year.
 
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Br@ssknux said:
11. @UCLA +3 v LSU (-118): I hope I don't embarrass myself here Twink...I'm sure you'll set me straight if I'm misreading anything.....
LSU had some hellaciously bad numbers on defense last year...it's a wonder their offense put up enough points to get them to .500. They ranked 125th in yards per play and 124th in passing yards per attempt on defense. Against the run? Only 94th, not bad! They gave up 550+ yards in a game 5 times. Luckily for them Vandy and South Carolina were on the schedule from the East or it would have been more. On the offensive side, they scored points, but they didn't do it impressively, as they couldn't run the ball and were mediocre in the passing game. UCLA didn't have a great record, but they were good in the trenches (25th in rush offense and 24th against the run) and Chip Kelly fashioned a decent passing attack despite having QBs shuttled in and out of the lineup due to COVID. I wasn't involved in UCLA's game last week against Hawaii, but Hawaii came into the season as no pushover and UCLA pretty much pushed them over, dominating in the trenches to the point where the game was over before it was 20 minutes old. LSU is a different animal, but not to the point they have been historically. They had to revamp the staffs on both sides of the ball, and Coach O usually needs the the very top of the top notch assistant coaches to prop him up. Unfortunately, there's no Dave Aranda or Joe Brady walking through that door, but they do have the poor man's version of those two, with former Aranda assistant Daronte Jones(by way of various NFL staffs recently) and Brady understudy Jake Peetz via the Panthers staff. We'll see how that goes, but first things first, they'll need the offensive line to stop getting mauled and the defensive backfield to start covering somebody really fast. DTR didn't look that great for UCLA last week, but I'll bet he's more focused this week, and if the UCLA run game continues how it looked last week and last year for hat matter, LSU could be susceptible to the same kind of leaky secondary they were plagued by last year.
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Very good write up...like UCLA too
 
12. Utah State +18 @Washington State: Not a ton of analysis here, just a hunch that Washington State is not the kind of program that can roll out of bed and beat anyone by 18. I realize that Utah State has been an embarrassment the past couple of years, but you would be too if Gary Anderson was the guy motivating you to get up every morning. That program was dead in the water as long as that slug was coaching them. so anybody else is going to look like Knute Rockne, and I'm guessing Blake Anderson will fit the bill, especially since he brought a competent QB with him from Arkansas State. Although Nick Rolovich performed well enough at Hawaii to get himself a power 5 gig, he's one of the worst ATS coaches in America, especially as a favorite. Utah State has a bunch of guys back. Sometimes just a change from staring into nothingness to actual competent coaching and game planning can make all the difference.
 
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oakas said:
Great write-ups Br@ss. Really enjoy them.

You are the best on the internet.

Good luck my friend.
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Now that is a very nice thing to say Oak, but the internet must be pretty small if that's the case.

Rough game tonight for the A's there Oak. I was on 'em....
 
That offensive performance may have buried Clemson’s chances for the playoff. I don’t think people will be clamoring to see that offense again. I’m guessing their normal status as a “benefit of the doubt” team may have hit a reset.
 
Br@ssknux said:
11. @UCLA +3 v LSU (-118): I hope I don't embarrass myself here Twink...I'm sure you'll set me straight if I'm misreading anything.....
LSU had some hellaciously bad numbers on defense last year...it's a wonder their offense put up enough points to get them to .500. They ranked 125th in yards per play and 124th in passing yards per attempt on defense. Against the run? Only 94th, not bad! They gave up 550+ yards in a game 5 times. Luckily for them Vandy and South Carolina were on the schedule from the East or it would have been more. On the offensive side, they scored points, but they didn't do it impressively, as they couldn't run the ball and were mediocre in the passing game. UCLA didn't have a great record, but they were good in the trenches (25th in rush offense and 24th against the run) and Chip Kelly fashioned a decent passing attack despite having QBs shuttled in and out of the lineup due to COVID. I wasn't involved in UCLA's game last week against Hawaii, but Hawaii came into the season as no pushover and UCLA pretty much pushed them over, dominating in the trenches to the point where the game was over before it was 20 minutes old. LSU is a different animal, but not to the point they have been historically. They had to revamp the staffs on both sides of the ball, and Coach O usually needs the the very top of the top notch assistant coaches to prop him up. Unfortunately, there's no Dave Aranda or Joe Brady walking through that door, but they do have the poor man's version of those two, with former Aranda assistant Daronte Jones(by way of various NFL staffs recently) and Brady understudy Jake Peetz via the Panthers staff. We'll see how that goes, but first things first, they'll need the offensive line to stop getting mauled and the defensive backfield to start covering somebody really fast. DTR didn't look that great for UCLA last week, but I'll bet he's more focused this week, and if the UCLA run game continues how it looked last week and last year for that matter, LSU could be susceptible to the same kind of leaky secondary they were plagued by last year.
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Great call here bro
 
Awesome thread every week. Much respect. One of my must reads. You have a great feel for so many teams, that's hard to do.
 
Br@ssknux said:
That offensive performance may have buried Clemson’s chances for the playoff. I don’t think people will be clamoring to see that offense again. I’m guessing their normal status as a “benefit of the doubt” team may have hit a reset.
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You think? I feel like if they do what expected and run table rest of way it pretty likely they will be in. Think it take lot of crazy things to happen for them not to make it, assuming they do run table and look good doing so. That said I think they gonna have their hands full in a couple acc games, at NCst then next week against boston college won’t be a cakewalk by any means imo. FSU could potentially be a little tougher than thought.
 
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