Week 1 Schrute Bucks

S

Schrute

Assistant __ ___ Regional Mod
FBS BETS
ATS 0-0
ML Dogs 0-0
Totals 0-0
2H/Live 0-0
ML Parlays 0-0
Teasers 0-0
Props 0-0

FCS BETS


As always, top post for record keeping and plays added throughout week

FCS graded separately in terms of units but 1 FBS unit = 2 FCS units


FUTURES UPDATES
Auburn Under 9.5 wins -110

Clemson Over 8.5 Wins +100

Miami Under 7.5 Wins +130

Notre Dame Under 7.5 +135

TAMU Under 7.5 Wins +100 1-0
Hate to call it early but this one looks scary bad

Vanderbilt Under 6 Wins -155
Phenomenal start and no way they win 7. This one could be a winner by week 8

Wake Forest Under 3.5 Wins +145
Off to a great start and really hard to find 4 wins now that they've lost to Monroe

VT to win Coastal +400

Northwestern to win B10 West +1200 0.5 units risked

Houston +275 to win AAC (0.5 units risked)

Melvin Gordon O1554 total yards 0.55-0.50
 
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Week 1 Plays - will all go here but will likely be posted below at time of play as well so I don't get accused of editing inappropriately


FBS BETS (1.10-1.00 unless otherwise noted) +0 Units with Ville pending
Louisville -2.5 vs Miami
Northwestern -12.5 vs Cal
Fresno State +22 at USC
Temple +15.5​ at Vanderbilt
Mississippi State -29.5 vs Southern Miss
Virginia +22 vs UCLA
Rice +21.5 ​at Notre Dame
Marshall -23.5 at Miami (OH)
Colorado St +3 vs Colorado (0.55-0.50)
Ohio +3 at Kent St (0.55-0.50)
Bowling Green -7 at Western Kentucky
WV +26 vs Alabama
Purdue -8.5 vs WMU 0.55-0.50
Tennessee -4 vs Utah St


ML DOGS (1 unit unless otherwise noted...frequently split bet b/t ML and spread) +1.30 units
Colorado St +130 vs Colorado (0.50-0.65)
Ohio +130​ at Kent St (0.50-0.65)


TOTALS (1.10-1.00 unless otherwise noted) +0.30 units
BC/UMASS U49 -120
​Clemson/UGA Under 58
Colorado/CSU U64 0.55-0.50
Abilene/GAState U29 1H ​(0.55-0.50)
UNLV/Arizona O60 0.55-0.50
Cal TT O26 0.55-0.50
Auburn TT U38 0.55-0.50


PARLAYS (risking 1 unit unless otherwise noted) +0.68 units
ML Parlay 1.00-1.02 - well worth watching Sumlin get deep in Spurrier's ass
Fan's Parlay 0.50-0.84 (this means I'd gladly lose half a unit to see any of these teams lose...worked last night with South Carolina)...Ohio St/Nebraska/Notre Dame/Bama/Auburn/Georgia/USC/FSU/Texas/Kentucky/VT/UNC
1H ML Parlay 0.50-0.84 - Nebraska/BC/Marshall/Domers/USC/Washington/FSU


TEASERS (0.5 units unless otherwise noted) -2.65 units
Wake U55.5/Tulsa U57/Ole Miss -1 0.55-0.50
UNLV O50/MSU -19.5/Nova +25.5 0.55-0.50
Navy +25/NCSU O47.5/BC -7 0.55-0.50
Clemson U64.5/Bama U64.5/FSU -8.5 1.10-1.00
Purdue -2.5/Under 58.5 0.55-0.50
Washington -7/UNT +31.5/Wisky +14 0.55-0.50


2H/LIVE (0.5 units unless otherwise noted) -0.55 units
UCLA 2H -7 +115 at UVA 0.50-0.57
Troy/UAB O29.5 2H 0.55-0.50
Georgia Tech -12.5 2H vs Wofford 0.55-0.50


PROPS (0.5 units unless otherwise noted) -1.05 units
Mike Davis Over 136.5 Rushing + Receiving
Bo Wallace Over 282.5 Passing + Rushing
Speedy Noil Over 37.5 Receiving Yards
Hundley O55.5 Rushing Yards
Clemson/UGA First Score FG/Safety +200 0.50-1.00
Goff O26.5 Completions 0.55-0.50 (CANCELLED BY 5DIMES)
Clemson O22.5 completions 0.55-0.50


FCS BETS (any game including FCS team) 1 FCS unit = half of an FBS unit; +19.4 units
Eastern Washington -6.5 vs Sam Houston State (2 unit FCS bet)
Alcorn St -25.5 vs Lynchburg (2 unit FCS bet)
South Carolina State -30.5 at Benedict College
Bryant +20.5​ vs Stony Brook
Cal Poly -4 vs NMSU
Indiana -23 vs Indiana St
Incarnate Word +14.5 vs Sacramento St
Kansas St -36 vs SFA
Stanford -34​ vs UC Davis
Fordham -13.5​ vs St Francis (PA)
Tennessee Tech -34.5 vs Kentucky Christian
Bucknell -10.5​ ​vs VMI
Jackson State +110 vs Florida A&M
Western Illinois -38.5 vs Valparaiso
Sacred Heart -7.5 vs Marist
Chattanooga +12 at Central Michigan
Monmouth -3 vs Delaware St
Eastern Illinois +15.5 at Minnesota
Montana +11 at Wyoming
Idaho St/Utah O54.5
Charleston Southern -38.5 vs Point University
North Dakota State ML +150 at Iowa State
Villanova +17 at Syracuse
Missouri -14 vs South Dakota State (2 FCS units)
La-La -30.5 vs Southern
Monmouth/Bucknell/Fordham/Sacred Heart/Furman 0.50-1.10
Nicholls St +28 at Air Force - PUSH
 
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Louisville -2.5
Eastern Washington -6.5
Northwestern -12.5
Fresno State +22
 
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Tru will be going with these this year...


download.blog
 
Jimmydafreak said:
Would be interested to hear your take on the Louisville/Miami game. I was leaning the other way.
Click to expand...


First off...what a wonderful handle to see roaming around. It absolutely means football season is right around the corner.

I'll be leaving the house shortly to spend all day at the GA aquarium but will throw some thoughts up when I get home this afternoon or this evening after the family heads off to bed.
 
what are your thoughts on that Cal game...you have cal up or down from last year?
 
Killing me w Cards pick. But I can see it. Breaking in a new QB on the road. That's the only thing holding that offense back however. RB and WR is stacked with a fairly veteran offensive line. QB, DT, and potentially OLB are big ? For Canes. I think the back 4 will be just fine this year.
New QB and new systems for the Lou could lead to an ugly first half for both teams

thinking after original post is that if Jake Heaps is the f'n QB, I wouldn't bet on him in any road game with your money.
 
Thanks guys...a few thoughts on Miami vs Ville game

Louisville defense does suffer some losses in the front 7 which could hurt against Duke Johnson and the Duke could burn this bet on his own. However it came down to trusting a new Miami QB on the road, on national television and in a very hostile environment for Louisville's first ACC game. I think Louisville will be able to stack the box and they do have 2 solid CBs returning. I don't see Heaps or whoever the QB of the minute is tomorrow being able to expose them. If I'm Louisville I make the Miami QB beat me. I don't think Miami has a QB capable of exposing them especially in the opener. I know y'all are gonna think I'm crazy but I don't think Bridgewater will be that big of a loss. I say that b/c the Louisville offense held Teddy B back a good bit. Had Teddy B been coached by Petrino then his graduation would have meant more. I expect Gardner to perform well after having a spring and fall camp with Petrino. Also there has to be some mild uncertainty on Miami's part as to exactly what Louisville's offense will look like. Ville has a strong OL returning 119 career starts and Miami has a poor DL and lost 4 of their top 6 players along that line so there isn't much depth there. If Gardner struggles I expect Louisville to be able to run the ball with some success here. I also give the coaching advantage to Petrino here and I think that means more in the first game of the year and in bowl games than it can in other places on the schedule.
 
gsro said:
what are your thoughts on that Cal game...you have cal up or down from last year?
Click to expand...

I have Cal up from the end of last year but they're still a ways away. Return QB, WRs and majority of OL and will throw the whole damn season. The offense will basically be the same but will see some improvement based on the fact that most people return. The defense which was absolutely horrendous loses 4 of the 2-deep across the DL and will have no depth at LB. They lose a starting CB but the rest of a terrible secondary returns intact. Venric Mark should run all over this defense and this pass defense is a new QBs wet dream in terms of getting off on the right foot. Siemian isn't exactly new either as he played about half of last year and I think he will thrive in this game. NW didn't have a great pass defense last year but they return all starters and should be able to play some tight press coverage to stop the short stuff. I'm excited about the Dykes vs. Fitz matchup with the offseason to prepare but the NW talent will just be too much here. Cal is still 2-3 years away IMO
 
Schrute said:
Thanks guys...a few thoughts on Miami vs Ville game

Louisville defense does suffer some losses in the front 7 which could hurt against Duke Johnson and the Duke could burn this bet on his own. However it came down to trusting a new Miami QB on the road, on national television and in a very hostile environment for Louisville's first ACC game. I think Louisville will be able to stack the box and they do have 2 solid CBs returning. I don't see Heaps or whoever the QB of the minute is tomorrow being able to expose them. If I'm Louisville I make the Miami QB beat me. I don't think Miami has a QB capable of exposing them especially in the opener. I know y'all are gonna think I'm crazy but I don't think Bridgewater will be that big of a loss. I say that b/c the Louisville offense held Teddy B back a good bit. Had Teddy B been coached by Petrino then his graduation would have meant more. I expect Gardner to perform well after having a spring and fall camp with Petrino. Also there has to be some mild uncertainty on Miami's part as to exactly what Louisville's offense will look like. Ville has a strong OL returning 119 career starts and Miami has a poor DL and lost 4 of their top 6 players along that line so there isn't much depth there. If Gardner struggles I expect Louisville to be able to run the ball with some success here. I also give the coaching advantage to Petrino here and I think that means more in the first game of the year and in bowl games than it can in other places on the schedule.
Click to expand...


to me, this is the entire game here. and knowing petrino, he's gonna exploit the hell outta that disparity. as long as duke isn't breaking off 30 yard runs, i think petrino will have his way with the canes' defense.
 
Added:

Temple +15.5 at Vanderbilt
Hate that I missed the 21 at 5Dimes release but still think this line should be closer to single digits. Really want 17 but wouldn't be shocked to see it hit 14 at some point so wanted to get in before that
 
Agree on the Ville. Jake Heaps sucks and if he is in fact starting I will be big on the Cards.

[video]<object height="315" width="560">


<embed src="//www.youtube.com/v/nTBZmpXsaUs?version=3&hl=en_US&rel=0" type="application/x-shockwave-flash" allowscriptaccess="always" allowfullscreen="true" height="315" width="560"></object>[/video]

[video=youtube;nTBZmpXsaUs]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTBZmpXsaUs[/video]
 
Schrute said:
Thanks guys...a few thoughts on Miami vs Ville game

Louisville defense does suffer some losses in the front 7 which could hurt against Duke Johnson and the Duke could burn this bet on his own. However it came down to trusting a new Miami QB on the road, on national television and in a very hostile environment for Louisville's first ACC game. I think Louisville will be able to stack the box and they do have 2 solid CBs returning. I don't see Heaps or whoever the QB of the minute is tomorrow being able to expose them. If I'm Louisville I make the Miami QB beat me. I don't think Miami has a QB capable of exposing them especially in the opener. I know y'all are gonna think I'm crazy but I don't think Bridgewater will be that big of a loss. I say that b/c the Louisville offense held Teddy B back a good bit. Had Teddy B been coached by Petrino then his graduation would have meant more. I expect Gardner to perform well after having a spring and fall camp with Petrino. Also there has to be some mild uncertainty on Miami's part as to exactly what Louisville's offense will look like. Ville has a strong OL returning 119 career starts and Miami has a poor DL and lost 4 of their top 6 players along that line so there isn't much depth there. If Gardner struggles I expect Louisville to be able to run the ball with some success here. I also give the coaching advantage to Petrino here and I think that means more in the first game of the year and in bowl games than it can in other places on the schedule.
Click to expand...


Kevin olsen suspended for ville game, jake heaps will be tha starter I guess? Haha
 
Added first ML Parlay 1.00-1.02
The picks are below and its a big one. I'll say that this is something I do and I pick my spots. I'll admit that doing a 13-teamer is probably pretty stupid because of course anything can happen but this is basically just my way of trying to improve value on a Gamecock ML wager.
SoCar/Ohio St/UCLA/Nebraska/Marshall/Notre Dame/Bama/Auburn/Oklahoma/Florida/Mississippi St/Florida St/Baylor
 
FCS Stuff dropping on 5Dimes so will be adding some of those tonight

South Carolina State -30.5 at Benedict College
 
Schrute said:
I have Cal up from the end of last year but they're still a ways away. Return QB, WRs and majority of OL and will throw the whole damn season. The offense will basically be the same but will see some improvement based on the fact that most people return. The defense which was absolutely horrendous loses 4 of the 2-deep across the DL and will have no depth at LB. They lose a starting CB but the rest of a terrible secondary returns intact. Venric Mark should run all over this defense and this pass defense is a new QBs wet dream in terms of getting off on the right foot. Siemian isn't exactly new either as he played about half of last year and I think he will thrive in this game. NW didn't have a great pass defense last year but they return all starters and should be able to play some tight press coverage to stop the short stuff. I'm excited about the Dykes vs. Fitz matchup with the offseason to prepare but the NW talent will just be too much here. Cal is still 2-3 years away IMO
Click to expand...

Thanks for this, I had Cal in the same spot or slightly lower than last year as I think their defense is going to let them down in most their games..going to be funt o watch.
 
Love your picks and plays Dwight but you gotta stay away from these bankroll killers. Enormous house edge on a parlay like this
 
Adding:

Cal Poly -4 vs NMSU
Indiana -23 vs Indiana St
Kansas St -36 vs SFA
Incarnate Word +14.5 vs Sacramento St
Stanford -34​ vs UC Davis
 
Adding:
Rice +21.5 at Notre Dame

Hit it earlier with the rumored news. Loved Rice anyway but was waiting for the public to hit Notre Dame above 24. Don't think that's going to happen now so I will go ahead and jump on while I can and re-evaluate closer to kickoff
 
Adding:
Fordham -13.5 vs St Francis (PA)

Added at the suggestion of a VERY respected member
 
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haha you're right dicky

I typed Sacred Heart earlier with a buddy when discussing the game. I think I just want them to play Sacred Heart...I wouldn't wanna lay 13.5 in that scenario though
 
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