Week 1 plays, leans, and things that I don't understand

Dmoney416

Dmoney416

Ben Mauk's Counsel
Season: 0-0

First, I have been reading everyone's threads and looking at the lines all morning. Thanks to all who got out early and hit the lines and put their thoughts out there. I'll update this thread throughout as I add plays.

Season plays: (write-ups can be found in the seasons wins threads)

Syracuse Under 4.5 Wins -105 (4.2u to win 4): 0-0
Georgia Tech Over 7 Wins -115 (3.45u to win 3): 0-0
South Carolina Over 7 Wins -120 (2.4u to win 2): 0-0

(Auburn Under 9 and Notre Dame Under 7.5 were scratched as they got juiced up)

Week 1 plays

Iowa (-11) over Northern Illinois (1.65u to win 1.5)

Remember, this game is being played at Soldier Field, not at N. Ill's home field.

Last year, Iowa beat N. Ill 24-14 at home as 16.5 favorites. The game was extremely ugly, as both offenses turned the ball over three times. Iowa also missed 2 FGs and dropped an easy touchdown pass which cost them more points. N. Ill did zero on offense until the fourth quarter, when they all of a sudden scored twice on two straight possessions to cut the lead to 17-14. Wolfe was held to 66 yards on 22 carries, and Iowa dominated yardage wise. This was also Jake Christensen's first game as a starter, and he was impressive. He threw for 256 yards, 2 TDs, and an INT on 19-30 passing. Really a bizarre game overall.

Also, keep in mind that this game occured during Iowa's collapse, and this game was the only game that Iowa would win in their last six games (this included a loss to Indiana as 19 point favs and a loss to Northwestern as 20 point favs).

This year, I expect a similar game (without the constant turnovers) with Iowa cruising to a 31-10ish type victory.

Iowa returns 14 starters (6 on offense, 8 on defense).

On offense, Christensen should get the reins at QB with Tate gone. They also return their top 3 RB, including Albert Young (ran for 125 yards against NIU last year) and Damian Sims, who combined for over 1400 yards last season. Andy Brodell and and Dominique Douglas return as the top 2 WR. They combined for nearly 1300 yards. Austin Signor takes over full time at kicker for Kyle Schlicher. Signor was good in limited time last year, hitting 5-5 XP and 2-2 FG with a long of 41. This may be an upgrade as Schlicher struggled last season at times, hitting 13-20 FG (including only 2-6 from 40+). They return 2 of their 5 on the OL. Overall, they return a good portion of the offense. I am also encouraged that Christensen's first start of the year will be against a team that he previously had success against.

On defense, they lose 3 of their top 5 tacklers. However, they return top tackler Mike Klinkenborg, and 8 of their 11 top tacklers overall. They return the entire DL and 2 of the 3 starters at LB. So, they will have 6 of the 7 back from a front seven that shut down Garrett Wolfe last year. They get both CBs back, but will have to replace both safties.

Northern Illinois returns 12 starters (6 on offense, 6 on defense).

On offense, they lose 1900 yard RB Garrett Wolfe to the NFL. Their top returning rushier is Cas Prime, who ran for 142 yards in 35 carries last year. Dan Nicholson will most likely be the QB, and split time with the departing Phil Horvath last year. Nicholson was an unimpressive 60-115 (52.2%) last season for 648 yards, 5 TDs, and 6 INT. They do return their top 3 WRs, including the very talented Britt Davis (57 catches, 732 yards last year). They return 3 starters on the OL, but they lose 1st-team All-MAC tackle Doug Free. Chris Nendick returns as the kicker. He was 35-36 on XP and 20-27 on FGs last year. However, he was only 1-5 from 40+ and his 27 FG attempts are a clear indication of N. Illinois' struggles in the red zone.

On defense, they lose three of the four in the secondary. They return top sack man Larry English (12 sacks), but they lose top tackler Dustin Utschig (116 tackles). Four of the front seven returns, as do three of their 6 top tacklers.

Overall, I feel this is a similar match-up to last season's, except that Iowa should be improved. N. Illinois downgrades at RB, and Iowa completely shut them down last season in that department anyway. Iowa dominated statistically in that game, and they should do the same here. Christensen had success last season against N. Illinois and I don't believe that Nicholson is ready for a Big 10 caliber defense.
 
Leans

Georgia Tech +3 over Notre Dame: Pretty much mirrors the consensus in the forum.

Florida St. -1.5 over Clemson: See above.

Central Michigan +8 over Kansas: Kudos to carolinablue (I think it was CB) who had this spread over a TD as I insisted the line should be 4. I said I would take CMU if this was over a TD, so at the very least I have to consider this one.

SMU +9 over Texas Tech: A hunch here as I like SMU's offense and generally don't trust TT on the road. Will have to research this more though.

ULM +5.5 over Tulsa
Army +4.5 over Akron

Overall, I feel the lines were pretty well done.

Things I don't understand:

I have seen a lot of people back road favorites UNLV and UConn. I don't really get this that much. While I fully realize how bad Duke and Utah St are, I feel that these could be dangerous plays. I actually am high on UConn this year, but Duke returns everybody on offense and started to show that they could put up points toward the end of the year.

UNLV was pretty bad last year, and I don't see any vast improvement as I read about them. They should be better, but I don't think that they willl turn into a 8-4 type of team all of a sudden.

Not saying I like the other sides of these games, just wondering what attracted everybody to these two match-ups.
 
I am on that SC future buddy, no doubt in my mind we hit and hopefully by wk 8 when they travel to Tenn and they are 7-1..=), UGA is such a big game for them.

I liked UNLV to beat up on Utah St but I can't lay almost 10 points on the road with them. They are 0-12 on the road under their current head coach.
UConn is not a team I have a good feel for so no opinion there.

Good writeup on the Iowa/No Illy game
 
Thanks ETG. Only reason that SC Team Total isn't a larger bet is the difficult road games they have. I am confident they get there though.

In Spurrier's first two years at SC, they are 6-3 SU and 8-1 ATS on the road.
 
UGA is the only team he has not beaten out of the big 3 in the East, that is a pivotal game for the season. He has stressed the importance in the off season and the players know how much that game means. They are going to lose @ LSU so its very very very important to upset UGA in WK2 which is very possible because of how we match up this yr. I think they beat Arkansas on the road and Clemson at home. I am looking at a 9-3 and best case 10-2 season. Anywhere all the way down to 8-4 but not 7-5, not happening
 
Before i say anything else, i have already put some money down on a few of the games that you have listed above and have made NO bets against any of the games you have posted above. So we are either both on the game or you are on it and i am laying off. so basic agreement, i think. I know a lot about unlv (local) so i will give you some insight into why people (self included ) feel they will be improved this year and should handle utah state on the road. I will not be betting the game, though i had planned to originally the line got away from me a little and unlv defense does make me leery of a backdoor cover. but here is why i think most folks around here like unlv, mostly short takes cause i dont want to do a whole write up.

QB-- rocky hinds was as big a recruit as we have had at unlv at the qb position since randall cunningham. the main problem with him has been injuries and he will be ready to play in this game. has never proven himself but atleast he will be in the game.

wr-- he will be throwing to maybe the best receiving corps in the mwc. they are very solid all the way to the 4th wideout spot, which would make it very difficult for utah state and lack of depth to cover 4 decent receivers. improved and solid.

rb-- they got juco frank summers coming in this year ( formerly played for Cal bears). This doesnt seem like much but as a regular follower of the program the rebels ability the last few years to convert on third and fourth and short has been horrendous and htis guy is a load. they have speed at the position in peeples . clasic thunder and lightning type thing. look for summers to get more carries as the season oves along due to ol factors pointed out below. imrpoved.

ol - unlv is strongest up the middle of the line so expect that to be where they run the most (summers). they have a kid Hawley who moved tot he center position this year and has makings of a real stud. Sanford loves his versatility but it won't matter because he will play center and only center no matter who gets hurt. They also have a player who the coaching staff has said is making incredible improvement in asiata at rt. this guy is huge, may even be pushing 340 and has improved a lot because he had basically no football experience prior to coming to unlv. on the left tackle they have a csu transfer in plunkett. so the line is improved for sure.

st - have speed at return spots. Kicker aguayo is considered very good but had tough time last year battling injuries and the punter this year challenged for the starting job last year before the eventual starter took 1st team mwc. so improved here

DL- best lineman played hurt all last year in geathers who shouldbe 1st or 2nd team mwc this year. thor pili comes in from oregon ducks ( great spring). middle of dl is suspect.

lb -beau bell will be drafted in nfl draft next spring and had to fight injuries last year. in spring jimmy miller was the better linebacker of the two ( miss state transfer). They have a lot of depth at this spot and it is pretty solid.

db - rebels lost some guys here... eric wright to nfl and another multi year starter in guice. they do get milvon james (ucla transfer) and tony cade (oklahoma sooner transfer).

so what i think people are looking at is that the returning talent of geathers, hinds, bell , and aguayo are healthier now and should be more productive. and look at this list of transfer talent:

qb rocky hinds (usc transfer , texas )
rb frank summers ( CAL fb )
wr - starters are solid. ( depth with transfers from arizona and wash st)
dl - thor pili (oregon)
lb- jimmy miller (mississippi state)
db- milvon james (ucla) and tony cade (oklahoma)

that is a lot of bcs recruits on the field coupled with geathers (likely first team mwc), beau bell likely drafted in spring, aguayo solid kicker, and arguably the best wr unit in the conference. now add in the fact that a lot of the talent was hurt last year ....the team is much better this year and i wouldnt be shocked if they won 5 games !!!!!!!!!!!!! i can see where most people dont think utah state can match up with bcs recruited talent. like i said, i won't be betting the game because the line crept into the area where it lost some of its value and i like other spots more but i can see why others like it.
 
Thanks for the write-up kyle. Admittedly, I didn't know much of UNLV besides what is in the PS mag. I was planning on staying away either way, just didn't know that UNLV should be a road fav like that against anyone. Now I know the reasoning behind it.
 
Excellent thread so far Dmoney. Gonna be a great season.

Kyle, thanks for the UNLV take there. I like that side but haven't fired yet.
 
tough to lay close to DD with UNLV although i wouldn't be surprised if i'm here on saturday night saying i fucking knew i should ve gone big on that one haha
 
Added a .5 unit to Iowa for a total of 2 units.

Also:

Troy +26.5 over Arkansas (3 units)

Last Meeting:
2002: Arkansas won 23-0 as 24 point favs

Arkansas returns 12 starters (6 on each side of the ball)

Arkansas has had a pretty turbulent offseason (detailed further here: http://www.sportsline.com/collegefootball/teams/report/AR/10288004). They missed their chance at a special season last year. They lost their last two games last season at home to LSU and Florida and then lost to Wisconsin in the Capital One Bowl. Then, Juniors Jamaal Anderson and Chris Houston declare for the draft. Their offensive coordinator bolts for Tulsa, Mitch Mustain and 2nd leading receiver Damian Willaims bolt for USC. It may be a lot to recover from.

The strength will be their rushing attack, as both heisman candidate Darren McFadden (1647 yards, 14 TDs) and Felix Jones (1168 yards, 6 TDs) return to bolster the offense. Marcus Monk also returns after going for 962 yards and 11 TDs last year despite inconsistency at the QB position.

The inconsistency should continue this season as Casey Dick is expected to take the reins. Dick has proved nothing in his first two years at Arkansas. He threw for 991 yards, 9 TDs, and 6 INTs last year accompanied by an ugly 49.2 completion percentage. Only 2 of the starting 5 on the OL come back to assist McFadden and Jones.

Alex Tejada is expected to get the job at kicker as a freshman. He has a Arkansas record 174 XPs in high school, but was only 7-17 on FGs last season.

On defense, they lose 3 of their 4 top tacklers and 6 of their top 10. In addition, they lose junior DE Jamaal Anderson (1st round pick, 65 yackles and 13.5 sacks LY) and CB Chris Houston (2nd round pick, 45 tackles, 13 passes defensed, 3 INT LY). These two guys anchored their respective positions on Arkansas' defense.

Two of the four return on the DL. They do get Antwain Robinson back, who was very solid with 68 tackles and 8.5 sacks last year. The only other reutrner on the line is Marcus Harrison, who is coming off ACL surgery and is generally a big question mark heading into the year.

Weston Dacus is the only returner at LB. He is also the team's top returning tackler with 95 last year. Freddie Fairchild also returns at LB. He started as a Freshman, but he tore his ACL early last season.

They return 3 of the 4 in the secondary, but Houston is gone and they now are left to search for a go-to cover guy at corner.

The punter is up in the air, but they are looking to improve on Jacob Skinner's sub-par 38.1 avg last year. According to Phil Steele, the frontrunner is Jeremy Davis. He was the kicker last year, but was a disappointment with 6-13 on FG. He punted as a freshman in 2004, and averaged 39.2 on 25 punts.

Troy returns 13 starters (5 on offense, 8 on defense).

What I like about this team is that they make an effort to go out and challenge these top BCS teams on the road every year in an attempt to get ready for the grueling Sun Belt schedule. Last year, they went to Nebraska, Florida St, and Georgia Tech. They lost 24-17 to Fla. St as 29.5 point underdogs, 35-20 to Georgia Tech as 17.5 point underdogs, and 56-0 to Nebraska on the third game of the trip as 23.5 point underdogs. I don't see them being intimidated here.

On offense, they get the important guys back. They went to a spread offense last year, but they are still balanced. QB Omar Haugabook threw for 2400 yards, 21 TDs, and a 61.3% pct. He did throw 17 INTs, which is way too many, but he should improve on that in his 2nd year in the spread. RB Kenny Cattouse also returns, and he boasted 810 yards and 4 TDs along with a 4.8 avg last season. Gary Banks (68 grabs, 603 yards, 8 TDs) and Mykeal Terry (27 grabs, 477 yards, 5 TDs) return at the top 2 WR spots. The biggest question mark on this team is that they return 1 of the 5 starters on the OL. This unit will have to mesh quickly. The good news is, Arkansas loses their top sack man from last season, so hopefully this doesn't present itself as a huge weakness.

Another question mark is kicker, where Greg Whibbs was a disappointing 11-19 last year. He was a pathetic 6-14 from 30+, and that must be improved on.

On defense, this team could be a force. They gave up 22 points per game last year, and gave up a respectable 3.7 yards per rush. They lose top tackler Brannon Condren, but they return top sack man Kenny Mainor and 6 of their top 10 tacklers. They also return a good amount of depth at almost every defensive position.

They return 3 of the 4 on the DL and 5 of the front seven. They return 3 of the 4 in the secondary, including 2nd-team All-Sun Belt CB Leodis McKelvin. Also, according to Phil Steele's mag, a couple of these newcomers are from big time programs. DT Chris Bradwell and SS Trevor Ford join the Troy family from Florida St, and DT Dion Gales comes over from Mississippi.

Adrian Vera is listed as the expected punter, but there is very little info on him.

How I see the game playing out:

First of all, the clock should be running in this game, as Arkansas should be sticking to the run and Troy is more than capable of running as well. A faster game would of course benefit Troy.

Following Troy, Arkansas has a bye week before a trip to Alabama. A look-ahead here wouldn't be out of the question and frankly I think that Arkansas will be surprised by just how solid this Troy defense is. I feel there is very little certainty in Razorback country besides McFadden and Jones. Now, that is nothing to sneeze at, as those two will likely carry them to several victories this year. However, those two alone won't be enough to carry them to a 4 TD victory here. This team is just full of questions IMO: Is Casey Dick any good? Can anyone get the ball to Marcus Monk? Will a #2 WR step up to take some coverage away from Monk? How will they react to the loss of Mustain, Houston, Anderson, etc? Not to mention that two of their expected defensive starters are returning from major reconstructive knee surgery.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Troy with an early lead here. Ultimately, McFadden and co. will get the job done, but not before Troy puts a bit of a scare into them. 31-17 Arkansas.

Interesting Notes:

Phil Steele has a pretty small gap between these two in his preseason rankings. Arkansas sits #37 while Troy is not too far behind at #48.


This is currently my favorite play of week 1.
 
Last edited:
Good shit Dmoney !

The defections that occurred in offseason had a lot to do with attempts by Nutt to get McFadden the Heisman. Dedicated to running the ball and with a slate of SEC defenses to contend with, I think Nutt tries to get McFadden a lot of touches in this game, Plays right into the fast moving game you discuss above. I will be adding this play , and agree with your analysis of how and why this will play out.
 
Why Army over Akron? I haven't looked into this game yet, but at first glance it seemed a great line for Akron
 
husky17 said:
Why Army over Akron? I haven't looked into this game yet, but at first glance it seemed a great line for Akron
Click to expand...

It is the weakest of my leans and I am pretty indifferent of the game at 4.5. The only reason I listed it was because I expect it to rise. I won't consider Army unless the line hits 7.
 
I should add that I also bet FSU -2 for 2 units, but any writeup I give would just echo BAR thoughts on the game, so no writeup is needed for that one.

Plays so far:

Troy +26.5 (3.3u to win 3)
FSU -2 (2.4u to win 2)
Iowa -11 (2.2u to win 2)

Revised leans:

Miami OH +5.5
UL Monroe +5.5
Memphis +3
G. Tech +2.5
C. Florida +9
C. Michigan +8
Texas -37.5
 
Great thread here D-Money, love the write-ups.

Personally, I'm laying off Iowa. They tend to play down to their competition. However, in this case, N. Illinois offense is a complete unknown, so I totally understand the reason for playing this one. But on the flipside, Iowa only covered one game last year and I just can't back a team that poor ATS, without getting a feel for them in the new year.

I completely agree on Troy. This should be a tight game and from past non-conf games, Troy really seems to get up for them, especially at the beginning of the season.

Great writeups again D-Money. Here's to a profitable season.
 
Thats weird the PS power ranking numbers that Steele has and how big the spread is. Great line you got on that game bro.

Houghton, Iowa feels fishy to me as well. Just a bad feeling about it.
 
Thanks Houghton - GL this season and let's start it off in week 1.

Thanks BAR - I should point out that while I originally thought that they were the power rankings, they are actually rankings based on schedules listed in the beginning of the book. I think I read somewhere that the actual gap in the power rankings is much larger, but it still only had Troy as a +16 dog on a neutral field. So, it is still value according to PS.

There will be more coming in a couple of days, especially when the totals are put out on the Greek. I think I have found an under the radar total.
 
Thanks PL, BAR, and Hunt. Appreciate it.

I am sick of waiting for The Greek to release their totals, so I just wrote up the total now. It will most likely be for 2 units, provided that the total is not much different than the posted 43.5 in other places:

Akron/Army Under 43.5

Akron Notes:

- WRs David Harvey (43 rec, 914 yards, 10 TDs last year) and Jermaine Lindsey (34 rec, 477 yards, 2 TDs last year) have been deemed academically ineligible for this game. That leave Jabari Arthur to shoulder a huge part of the load since the team's #1 and #3 WRs are gone.

- Freshman QB Sean Hakes, a highly touted player from Texas, has left the team.

- Center Jim Holley (projected starter) and Guard Garrett Brewster are also gone from the team.

Other Notes:

This game is being played at a neutral field in Cleveland, so there should be no huge HFA for either team.

Akron Offense vs. Army Defense

Luke Getsy is gone, so the QB position is left up to eith Carlton Jackson or Chris Jacquemain. To my knowledge, this QB battle is still ongoing and neither of these two has a significant lead in the race. With Harvey and Lindsay out, Jabari Arthur (45 rec, 730 yards, 4 TDs last year) is the team's only real go to guy at WR.

Dennis Kennedy (914 yards, 9 TDs, 4.0 avg last year) returns at RB. He should get 25-30 carries in this game, which will keep the clock moving. Now, Kennedy is a very solid runner, but he has a long history of injuries, and he lacks the breakaway threat of some other backs. His longest run last year was only 30 yards, as he is more likely to grind out yardage. Also, only 1 of the 5 return to help Kennedy on the OL (Chris Kemme, who was 2nd Team All-MAC last year, does return) and proected starter Jim Holley is gone, so depth is a question.

This team averaged only 19.7 points last year with Getsy, Kennedy, Harvey, and co. I can't see them exploding here with so much new personnel.

The biggest concern is Army's defense, who gave up 27.9 points per game last year along with 4.8 yards per rush. However, they played Kent St. to a 17-14 final last year (comparable MAC team), and the defense struggled when the opponent was especially proficient in one area of offense (either running or passing). This is not the case with this Akron team. Again, I wouldn't be surprised if Kennedy goes for 125-150 yards in this game, but it will be on 25-35 carries and will be methodical. Army does lose their top three tacklers from last year, buth they pick up Ted Bentler, who is a highly touted Iowa transfer, to add size to the defensive line.

Army Offense vs. Akron Defense

QBs David Pevoto (1012 yards, 6 TDs, 14 INT LY) and Carson Williams (577 yards, 4 TDs, 10 INT LY) both return from last year. Williams is listed as the projected starter by Phil Steele, and as you can see neither of them impressed last year. This unit only averaged 19.3 ppg last year, and it would have been much worse had it not been for a 62-7 drubbing of VMI. Army only scored over 20 points four times last year (they did not reach 30 besides the VMI game) and they scored under 10 points four times.

WR Jeremy Trimble return after leading the team with 52 rec, 534 yards, and 2 TDs last year. However, they lose both their #2 and #3 WRs. Leading rusher Wesley McMahand returns after running for 654 yards and 4 TDs last year. They may ride him during this game, especially if Williams struggles early. 2 of the 5 OL return.

This team will struggle with the Akron defense, which is arguably the best of the MAC coming into the season. They gave up 22.6 ppg last year while giving up only 3.4 yards per rush. They did give up 186 passing ypg, but if this a weakness, Army does not have the personnel to exploit it. Akron returns their top 6 tacklers from last season. This includes leaidng tackler John Mackey and 2nd team All-MAC Brian Stokes at LB.

Akron Special Teams:

John Stec returns at punter after averaging 38.6 yard per punt last year.

The only returning kicker from last year is Matt Domonkos, who was a horrendous 2-8 on FGs and 13-17 on XPs. Igor Iveljic will likely take the job.

The loss of David Harvey will not only hurt at WR. He averaged 30.0 yards per kick return last season. Now the team will have to use another KR.

Army special teams:

Punter Owen Tolson returns after posting a nice 42.2 yards per punt last season.

Austin Miller is gone at kicker after graduating. Freshman Matt Campbell is listed as the expected kicker by Phil Steele.

Army was 5th in the nation in kick return defense last season, allowing only 15.9 yards per return. They also blocked three extra points in their game against Tulane.

Conclusion:

Both offenses have glaring question marks. Both teams are replacing guys on the OL, both have question at QB and WR. Each team has a respectable RB, who I expect them to ride for the majority of the game.

Army's defense was bad last season, but I truly don't believe that Akron's offense can walk in and put up 30 here. Army should improve in the run defense. Akron's D is very good and returns a cohesive unit from last season.

Both teams have new faces at kicker while returning respectable punters. Army, despite their poor defense last season, has a very good special teams defense. Akron loses their most dynamic KR.

I feel all of this adds up to low scoring contest. 20-14 Akron.
 
Ok, The Greek finally added their totals and some of the 1H lines, so here is my Week 1 card as of now:

Thursday/Friday:
No plays :hang:

Saturday:

Troy +26.5 (3.3u to win 3) - write-up above
Western Michigan/West Virginia Over 54.5 (2.75u to win 2.5) - Enough has been said about this game IMO
Army/Akron Under 44 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
UAB/Michigan St Under 50 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up coming
Iowa -11 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
Texas -22 (1st Half) (1.65u to win 1.5) - Forum tail

Monday:

FSU -2 (-120) (2.4u to win 2) - See BAR's analysis thread


Still considering:
Central Florida +8.5 and ML +300
TCU/Baylor Under 46.5
Georgia Tech +3 (-120)


So 7 plays thus far. Road teams, unders, and a disturbing lack of Thursday/Friday degenerate/action plays. :prayer
 
BOL DMoney :cheers:

Surprised that you don't just put money on LSU if you have nothing for Thursday. It looks like the most solid play on the board. But thats just my opinion. Hope you have a wonderful season and make a boat load of cash. :shake:
 
looks like you got a nice line on Troy, Dmoney. BOL this season and great work on the research this summer for Foots, helped out a lot.
 
Thanks Sparky, Jump, and RO.

Damn, just realized that I forgot to put my thoughts in about the Mich St./UAB Under.

Added the bolded plays. 10 total for the weekend. May add one or two more at most during the day.

Saturday:

Troy +26.5 (3.3u to win 3) - write-up above
Western Michigan/West Virginia Over 54.5 (2.75u to win 2.5) - Enough has been said about this game IMO
Army/Akron Under 44 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
UAB/Michigan St Under 50 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up coming
Iowa -11 (2.2u to win 2) - write-up above
Texas -22 (1st Half) (1.65u to win 1.5) - Forum tail
Miami -17 (-120) (1.8u to 1.5) - This fell to -17 literally 10 seconds after I bet it.
Central Michigan +8 (1.1u to win 1)
Nate Longshore -10.5 yards over Erik Ainge (-140) (1.4u to win 1)

Monday:

FSU -2 (-120) (2.4u to win 2) - See BAR's analysis thread
 
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