Week 1 NFL....

Y

YesSir

Brian Windhorst
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Whats up fellas..,pumped up for the season and wanted to get some thoughts down
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NFL 2007
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***No Units will be listed but will list stronger plays***
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Games that I post the night before, usually will use stats prior to that night's games. I do take into effect(in my thougth process) what transpired that night.​

onto some thoughts....​

Season Totals:
New York Giants UNDER 8 WINS (120)​

I really do not see how Brandon Jacobs and Tiki Barber are being mentioned as Jacobs doing things that Tiki could not do. Lets not mistake that Tiki was a top 5 back in the league. Brandon Jacobs is a bruiser and has never been an every down back. He has shown to be tremendous on the goaline, in the red zone, and in 3rd in short situations. Jacobs was a great change of pace back but I am not sold that he will be a great featured back. Rueben Droughns was a good idea but he is the same type of runner as Jacobs, just smaller. Jacobs style of running might land him on the injured list again. Then if that happens, you have a Browns castaway as the number 1.​

I agree that people need to leave Eli alone BUT he brought that on himself. He is the one that went John Elway and said he would not play in San Diego. I do not care about the line and WRs and all that other crap. Phillip Rivers (who NY essentially traded for Manning) is getting the job done and his team was 14-2. I agree that he will be a solid QB but I will continue to root against him and laugh when he struggles. I expect him to come out on fire again but fail at the end of the season (when it is do or die time).​

I like their WRs a lot. I have always like Plaxico, because of his size and natural ability. Jeremey Shockey is a huge target and a Top 3 TE. They will have Amani Toomer back right? I love Sinorice Moss. He was criticized last year but was often hurt... Also, Steve Smith will just add depth to this core. I think they will be one of the elite receiving corps in the league.​

Their line is always a question BUT everything I hear has David Diehl moving to tackle? Also, is Guy WHimper finally going to see some action. He was a third or fourth round pick last year. Everything I have seen, says he had a huge off season. I think the OL will improve as the year wears on, but in that division it might be too late....​

We will see how good Osi Umenyiora really is (without Strahan). Will Strahan play? I have heard that he is keep himself in excellent shape...so we will see.​

I like Antonio Pierce a lot...he uses his brain to make plays....Mathias Kiwanuka should fill in nice in the empty slot...​

Secondary got stronger with the drafting of Aaron Ross...it needed too​

Will Demps gets a free pass because of injuries but Sam Madison and Corey Webster need to step their game up.​

I believe the Giants will struggle mightily this year. Eli will show his lack of a heart and will struggle as the season wears on. Aaron Ross will help the secondary but he is not going to take the number 28 pass defense and make them good. Their run defense was not that great last year either and if they lose Strahan it will be bad, very bad.​

I do not see a way they win more than 7 games.... I think more of 5-11 here...​

Atlanta Falcons OVER ?​

not sure what this total will be but I am sure I will swoop the over. A lot of people think that they will be terrible this year. I am not here to say that they will be great but I think they will win their share of games. Is the OL and WRs as bad as they have looked in recent years? I say no, it was more the quarterback leaving the pocket too early. It is hard to block for a guy that breaks down his own team's play before it has a chance to jump off. Warrick Dunn looks like he might be "slowing down" a bit but I am confident Jerious Norwood will help out.​

Laugh on but I think Joey Harrington gets the job down. This is really the first time in his career where not a lot is expected of him. Was he a first round bust? Yes BUT they are not looking for him to be a savior here.​

Bobby Patrino is a great offensive minded coach. As much as I dislike him as a person, he knows how to scheme on offense.​

Michael Jenkins and Roddy White have been the 2 more recent receivers that "cant get the job done". I think they are both talented young players that will mature under Patrino. Joe Horn has slowed down but from what I hear he is a great influence and leader in that core... Alge Crumpler is a beast and I expect a big year here...​

There is depth on the OL, just waiting to see what comes of it... They used a second round pick to get Justin Blalock...they also got Fonoti (sp) from SD.​

In all honesty, I think that the DL will be revamped this year....John Abraham is supposedly healthy again and Jamaal Anderson will be a beast IMO​

Keith Brooking gets to play at a more comfortable position as he moves to MLB....I think Demorrio Williams is going to have a huge year this year. He is a freakish athlete that is fast as hell....​

I love this team's secondary....DeAngelo Hall, Lawyer Milloy, 2nd round pick Chris Houston, Chris Crocker, and Lewis Sanders are decent backs...​

They have an good punter, return men....I am not sure if they are going to try Koenen with shorter FGs now...since the departure of Morten Anderson....​

The Falcons have the 4th easiest schedule (.473)....​


Some more totals later....​


Season 0-3 -1.65 units

NO -.55 units
OVER -.55 units
over and No -.55 units


Browns + 5 (2.2-2)

Jets + 7 (1.2-1)

STL ML (1.1-1)

Buffalo + 3.5 (1.2-1)

SEA - 6 (2.2-2)

Philly -2.5 (1.1-1)

Washington - 2.5 (1.1-1)

Washington/Miami UNDER 34.5 (1.1-1)

Det + 3 (1.2-1)

Dallas -6.5 (1.1-1)

Cinci -2.5 (1.1-1)

SF -2.5 (1.2-1)

Cinci/Balty 2nd half OVER 19.5 (.55-.5)
 
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Looking at

OVER INDY/NO
Colts
Buffalo
Rams
Texans
Jets
Bears/Chargers OVER
Cowboys
Bengals
Niners/Cards OVER
Cards
 
Don't forget the two must bets.
Colts and Chargers.

Always play the SB winner and vs. the loser in the first game.

Press
 
imma need more than that to make a play press. whats the numbers on that trend?
 
2005
Philly(losers)
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/12/05</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Atlanta </td> <td class="datacell"> L 10-14 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -1.5</td></tr></tbody></table>NE

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Thursday 09/08/05</td> <td class="datacell"> Oakland </td> <td class="datacell"> W 30-20 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> W -7.5</td></tr></tbody></table>2006
Pitt
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Thursday 09/07/06</td> <td class="datacell"> Miami </td> <td class="datacell"> W 28-17 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> W -1</td></tr></tbody></table>
Sea(losers)

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Sunday 09/10/06</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Detroit </td> <td class="datacell"> W 9-6 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -6</td></tr></tbody></table>
2004
Car(losers)

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/13/04</td> <td class="datacell"> Green Bay </td> <td class="datacell"> L 14-24 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -3</td></tr></tbody></table>

Pats

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Thursday 09/09/04</td> <td class="datacell"> Indianapolis </td> <td class="datacell"> W 27-24 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> P -3</td></tr></tbody></table>
2003
Bucs

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/08/03</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Philadelphia </td> <td class="datacell"> W 17-0 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> W 3</td></tr></tbody></table>
Oak(losers)

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Sunday Night 09/07/03</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Tennessee </td> <td class="datacell"> L 20-25 </td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L 3</td></tr></tbody></table>
2002
Rams(losers)

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Sunday 09/08/02</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Denver </td> <td class="datacell"> L 16-23</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -3</td></tr></tbody></table>

Pats

<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/09/02</td> <td class="datacell"> Pittsburgh </td> <td class="datacell"> W 30-14</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> W 2.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
 
I can go back farther, but it's a manual process and I wanted to see how it posted.

In 5 yrs..............9-0-1

Press
 
2001

Jints(losers):<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/10/01</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Denver </td> <td class="datacell"> L 20-31</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L 7</td></tr></tbody></table><table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">
</td> <td class="datacell">
</td></tr></tbody></table>
Ravens:<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Sunday 09/09/01</td> <td class="datacell"> Chicago </td> <td class="datacell"> W 17-6</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> W -9.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
2000

Titans(losers):<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Sunday Night 09/03/00</td> <td class="datacell"> @ Buffalo </td> <td class="datacell"> L 13-16</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -1</td></tr></tbody></table>
St.Louis:<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr><td class="datacell"> Monday 09/04/00</td> <td class="datacell"> Denver </td> <td class="datacell"> W 41-36</td> <td class="datacell"> Week 1</td> <td class="datacell"> L -6.5</td></tr></tbody></table>
I don't want to hijack Yessir's thread but , there is your first loser......St.Louis in 2000.

I hope it doesn't tank this year since I brought it up.LOL

Press
 
Thanks guys....I will look more at this early tomorrow...I have to run out now
 
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Thanks guys...'an_horse'

Mags- those are season win totals correct?'an_horse'

Brewer- I know...that is a bad story'an_horse'

press-
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...lol jk...great info, something I will definately look into. I definately love reading stats/trends like this. I am more of a trend guy in baseball though...do not read a lot into it in football. Those stats are pretty remarkable though- would love to read more, if you had anything further back'an_horse'
 
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Fade losing team in SB next season week 1 ATS

84 1-0
85 1-0
86 0-1
87 0-1
88 1-0
89 1-0
90 1-0
91 1-0
92 0-1
93 0-1
94 1-0
95 1-0
96 1-0
97 0-1
98 0-1
99 0-1
00 1-0
01 1-0
02 1-0
03 1-0
04 1-0
05 1-0
06 1-0

overall 16-7 69.56%
 
Great writeup YesSir! Thanks for the info. bro! It's greatly appreciated. Just starting to look at these.
 
yessir, i like the points with cleveland against pittsburgh. I think everyone is giving this pittsburgh team too many props. cleveland is a totally different team than last year, they actually have depth at 0-line, d-line, and cb this year.
 
re-post my thoughts here as well.. since you're talking G-Men..

that's the problem.. too many people are underestimating Jacobs... the guy is for REAL and I think he IS going to make alot of doubters eat their words this season... Alot of people just look at what Tiki did and think it can't be replaced... they look at his 5.1 yards per carry as opposed to Jacobs' 4.4 last year and think he can't do what tiki does.

Sure tiki ran over 1200 yards for 5 straight years, but keep in mind he had over 300 carries in 4 out of those 5 years and had over 270 carries in that one other year... What do you think Jacobs would do with over 300 carries??

Let's look at how Jacobs and Tiki really performed last year running behind the same offensive line...

For one, we know Jacobs ran a shitload of goal line plays that took away from his average, so let's take away the goal line plays (Inside the redzone) for both tiki and Jacobs since that took away from both of their averages and see what they did everywhere else in the open field...

Outside the redzone (running behind the same O-line), Tiki had 319 carries and averaged 5.2 per carry. Jacobs had 71 carries and also averaged 5.2 per carry. Tiki's longest run of the season was 55 yards.. in fact, tiki lead the entire league in runs over 10 yards... so if you take away those long runs over 10 yards, his average would probably go down drastically.... Jacobs longest run was only 16 yards.. that means he gets more consistent yardage with each carry... you have to remember Jacobs was mainly used for the goaline purposes... almost 30% of his carries were inside the redzone. Tiki only had 9% of his carries inside the red zone. It's alot easier to get more done in the open field than in the goaline where everything is cramped up and everyone is keying on you.. yet Jacobs still averaged 4.4 per carry including those carries... that says alot.. specially when you consider they were both running behind the same line... I think as long as the Giants use Jacobs correctly, and they find a way to make that left side of the O-Line work, then it could be a big season for Jacobs... You gotta remember, Coughlin likes to run the ball plenty. The three years he's been there are the only three seasons that tiki had over 320 carries and over 1500 yards. Never did he reach those numbers before Coughlin and yet with Coughlin, he did it every season. Watch out for Jacobs if he's used as the workhorse.

YesSir... it seems you are high on Rivers, which is okay to be because he is good, but keep in mind he does have arguably the best Offensive line, the best fullback, the best tight end, and the best running back in the league. What more could you ask for as a quarterback?? Well, I guess you could also ask for a top defense, but he got that too... alot more gifts than Manning received.. that's for sure. I know you say you don't care about the receivers and all that crap, but the bottom line is... with the team he has around him, you'd have to be really shitty to NOT succeed. If Manning could lead the team he has around him to an 11-5 season two years ago, and to the playoffs two out of three years, then I don't see what would be so hard seeing him lead a Ladainian led team with their tight end, fullback, O-line, and defense to a 14-2 season. Seriously, that team could make Patrick Ramsey look like a star. I'd like to see what Rivers would do in say.. oh I don't know.. Oakland..

not sure what you mean by Pierce playing with his brain... I don't think just any smart player who can read the formations can make the plays he does physically...

as for Osi, the guy is good (with or without Strahan)... and I would not be surprised if Madison gets replaced and doesn't even start.... he needs to get his shit in gear.

haven't looked as much into the Falcons as I would like to, but from what I have looked into, I figure they win maybe 6-8 games.
 
Since I am a TB homer I am seriously thinking about slamming the under 7 +110 for regular season wins.

At Seattle loss Alexander should flourish
NO loss could make it close but NO with a close victory
STL loss Jackson will shred our interior defense
at Car loss Car dominates us every year
at Ind loss no need to mention anything lol
Tenn win should be a close game Young will give us fits
at Det loss Det should be improved this year and TB doesnt fare well ever in Det
Jac loss
AZ win
at Atl win with Vick it's a loss, without Vick it's a win
Wash win unless the Wash running game doesnt shred us like last year
at NO loss we will get destroyed spread should be around 8 or 9
at Hou win should be a close game
Atl win
at SF loss we never play well in the West Coast; SF my sleeper NFC pick
Car loss

6-10 is what I come up with. The close games could go either way. Old defense, old QB, no O-line = not a whole lot of wins. I wrote this quick so I will add more later. JMO. Thoughts?
 
Frankie- Am I the only one out of the loop? lol:cheers: As far as the Browns this year... I think they can have one of the best offensive lines in the L if they gel. With that being said, they are dealing with a couple of injuries and a steroid user. I think Game 4 of the preseason will be a great gauge for how this line will look. I know starters usually play sparingly, but most of the line should be ready to roll that game. I think they will see some extended time. It will be interested to see how these guys mold. Also, Jamal Lewis has looked fast and strong. Defensively, this team has improved a lot. To the average eye, they look like the same team BUT they have a lot more depth. Cleveland's defensive backfield will be much better this year. I think last year, I could have walked across the street, tried out and made the team at CB. They were just taking random bums off the street. lol they had 3 starters in their secondary who played together at the same high shcool...anyways getting off subject here....thanks and gl:cheers:

Tru- I am pretty familiar with that trend BUT I can see a possible outliar this year... How often is the Super Bowl loser getting a TD? I think Vegas took that into account this year. Thoughts?:cheers:

Terpman- No problem man, thanks:cheers:

Blitz- I think I responded to that in the other thread but I will check in a second....:cheers:


ATP- Good thoughts and I would be interested in more(if you decide to look further into this play). Some thoughts about this play. I tend not to bet totals when I predict a teams total within 1 of the line. The reason for this is because there will always be that one win where your like, "How the fuck did Tampa Bay win that game?" lol Also, when looking at a schedule you feel a team will win 6 games. you tend to find 10 losses no matter what. At the same time I do not really think you shaded any of these games. I am even willing to argue that there are a couple of games you have chalked as wins, that might be tougher than expected.
I do not see them having a chance winning at Atlanta.....
I think they can win at Detroit.......
One thing you have to note is that they do not play in cold weather at all this year. That is usually a loss for this Tampa Bay team BUT it is nonexistant on the schedule this year....BOL and look forward to hearing your thoughts...:cheers:
 
Yes I agree completely Blitz....What I am saying is that he should be in that situation but he had to be dick, (instead of being greatful of having a chance to play) and demand not to play in SD...It is kind of ironic....I think he will be a good QB but it is great to watch him crumble IMO...If he played for the Bears I am sure I would feel differently.
 
Now I have a little more time to talk about TB. I agree with your response Yessir. Cold weather is 99.9% of the time a loss. Glad you pointed that out because that is something I didn't factor in. I don't really like to play totals as well but this seems to stick out a little. I missed the boat on 7.5 a few weeks back. You are absolutely correct about how some of the games can go either way. i.e at Atlanta. I had them winning but in years past we haven't fared too well in Atl. IMO there are about 3-4 game sthat could fit in the "How the hell did they win or loss that game". That is what is holding me up in slamming the under. Here is my take:

QB - Garcia is an experienced vet who can move the ball through the air. He is smart and doesn't turn the ball over too much and can use his legs to get out of trouble. The Bucs have lacked a smart QB that can instinctly move out of the pocket and either run out of bounds or throw the ball away. The Bucs have had Gradkowski and Simms for the last 2+ years. Both are young and inexperienced and have shown very little from the "leader" position. TB has defintely upgraded the QB position but the question still remains: Will Garcia remain healthy all year and not just 2 or 5 games? That is huge IMO to a average or above average season.

I am going to throw in the O-line with the RB's in my next analysis.

RB & O-line - TB hasn't had a good O-line since the James Wilder days in the early 80's. Yes that is two decades. IMO that is the last true effective back the Bucs have had. Reason: No O-line. That will continue this year with the relatively new faces needing to gel this offseason and early regular season. Williams had a great rookie year and then fell off the face of the earth after that. Not entirely his fault. It is very difficult to change personnel before, during and after the year, year after year and not have any consistency at the O-line position. This is what TB has faced the last five years. Garcia and Williams could be in for a long year or maybe short year if they don't get injured. Where will the points come from if there is no blocking, no protection, no holes to run through, etc.... Davin Joseph and Aaron Sears are having a great preseason and that is progress. Remember TB is still a young team on the offensive side of the ball which could lead to mistakes.

WR - Stovall, Galloway and Boston. Not a scary receiving corp by any means but ok at best. Galloway should be able to stretch the defense with his speed. Stovall is young but coming around and could wind up the #2 by the end of preseason. Boston has made strides early on in camp and should be able to at least secure the #3 receiver slot. The problem with our receivers and I saw this against Jacksonville, is that our receivers don't know how to run routes. This has happened the last few years which led to QB sacks. Simms and Gradkowski are by no means mobile. This receiving core has the capability to be good but once again the O-line comes into play.

It doesn't help that TB was next to near last in every offensive category last year.

Defense

Kevin Carter could be the best offseason acquisition. I watched the Jac preseason game and he was a beast. Yes preseason is preseason but it is nice to see the D-line do damage since Rice was let go.

Linebackers - Brooks is back in the middle but he is getting older. One thing I noticed against Jac is that the Bucs once again haven't found a solution for plugging up the middle where Jac gashed out huge yards through our interior defense. That was a big problem last year as some of the teams with the better RB's tore up our middle position.

Secondary - Not too much to report at this time. Will add info when I can.

Intangibles - Gruden should not be the coach of TB any longer. I have seen Gruden and GM Bruce Allen make a ton of offseason blunders the last two or three years. This team should get a pinch better than last year but who have they gotten to shore up an offense that ranked close to last year. David Boston??? Alex Smith was IMO our only bright spot on offense last year. We don't have a breakway running back, a breakaway (Harrison, Owens, etc....) type of WR and Garcia is one tackle away from his season being over. The defense is old, mixed in with some young players trying to gel. Lastly, no special teams except solid punter and place kicker. Did I forget to mention that TB in their history has yet to run a kickoff back for a TD. LOL That is embarrassing.


Not sure about the under 7 yet but I am leaning that way. I just don't see TB winning 7 games this year. They are bad almost all the way around as a team. Some of the teams on their schedule has gotten better (SF, Tenn, Stl and Det) or play well at home and TB will have a hard time getting a win against these teams. I haven't done my full research on some of the teams on the TB schedule so I haven't made a decision as to what I am going to do yet. Hope this helps and sorry if I rambled a bit. :cheers:
 
tampa has the DEs to get pressure (which is key to the tampa 2) to still run their base d.

garcia success over the last couple years has all come when he has had to step up from the backup qb spot. be interesting to see if he can be a #1 going into the year and have the success he has had in years past.

they have no o line/run game at all imo.

gonna be a lot of broken plays for this team on offense. so te smith and possession wrs should do best.

defensive secondary is one of teh better ones in the league imo but the front 7 is not what it was in years past.

i cant see tampa winning 8 games so if i had to bet that future i would take under 7.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">ATP- Good writeup.

I think Brewer nailed the Garcia situation:

garcia success over the last couple years has all come when he has had to step up from the backup qb spot. be interesting to see if he can be a #1 going into the year and have the success he has had in years past.

I really do not expect anything out of Jeff Garcia this year. This signing has bad news written all over it. Looking at his career, it has been a roller coaster. When he was in SF, he was a pro bowler 2 or 3 times. He had a good core of players and was in a system friendly offense. After a few injury he was banished to Cleveland- who at that time thought this was going to be a great piece. Well what happened in Cleveland? He whined about the weather and grew very annoying, very quick. He did not have the weapons in Cleveland. Also, for the first time in his career, people expected him to be the savior. After Cleveland he got exiled to Detroit where he started less than half the season. He did bad in the latter 2 situations...why? Because he was brought in to be a savior IMO. He was brought in to 2 bad offenses with no lines, and a weak running game.

After solo years in Cleveland and Detroit he expected a backup role in Philadelphia. As a backup signee nothing was expected of him. McNabb gets hurt and everyone thought that the Eagles season was over. Well Garcia fit perfect in that system. A passer friendly offense with a good back field and good line. So he looked like a savior, almost like he was a niner again. Now he gets a bigger deal, and the pressure is on him to turn around a ailing franchise. He comes to a team with some talent at WR but no real stud, a weak offensive line (DET CLE), and a lack of a running game. Ultimately, he is back in Cleveland or Detroit where he will be the focal point of the offense. I see no way that he starts more than 10 games (because of injury or getting benched).

Also, lets not forget that Garcia is 37 and rapidly approaching 40...usually a bad sign for a guy who relies on his feet. At the same time he did not start his NFL career till later on...

Speaking of aging players, TB defense looked a lot older last year. Not so long ago, this team dominated opponents. Last year they only sacked the opposing QB 25 times (second worse in the L). Gaines Adams I think will help this number BUT will not turn it completely...

When talking about totals, especially unders I think that the FG kicker and ST are a big part. Every time has at least one game that is decided by their FG kicker. Whether that is a coach to scared to kick because of a crappy kicker OR a kicker drilling a 62 yarder as time expires. Matt Bryant crushed that 62 yarder last year BUT that was more of an outliar. He was only 17 of 22 on the season. Also, TBs return game was busted last year.....</TD></TR><TR UNSELECTABLE="on" hb_tag="1"><TD style="FONT-SIZE: 1pt" height=1 UNSELECTABLE="on">

</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">ATP- Good writeup.


I think Brewer nailed the Garcia situation:​


garcia success over the last couple years has all come when he has had to step up from the backup qb spot. be interesting to see if he can be a #1 going into the year and have the success he has had in years past. ​


I really do not expect anything out of Jeff Garcia this year. This signing has bad news written all over it. Looking at his career, it has been a roller coaster. When he was in SF, he was a pro bowler 2 or 3 times. He had a good core of players and was in a system friendly offense. After a few injury he was banished to Cleveland- who at that time thought this was going to be a great piece. Well what happened in Cleveland? He whined about the weather and grew very annoying, very quick. He did not have the weapons in Cleveland. Also, for the first time in his career, people expected him to be the savior. After Cleveland he got exiled to Detroit where he started less than half the season. He did bad in the latter 2 situations...why? Because he was brought in to be a savior IMO. He was brought in to 2 bad offenses with no lines, and a weak running game.​


After solo years in Cleveland and Detroit he expected a backup role in Philadelphia. As a backup signee nothing was expected of him. McNabb gets hurt and everyone thought that the Eagles season was over. Well Garcia fit perfect in that system. A passer friendly offense with a good back field and good line. So he looked like a savior, almost like he was a niner again. Now he gets a bigger deal, and the pressure is on him to turn around a ailing franchise. He comes to a team with some talent at WR but no real stud, a weak offensive line (DET CLE), and a lack of a running game. Ultimately, he is back in Cleveland or Detroit where he will be the focal point of the offense. I see no way that he starts more than 10 games (because of injury or getting benched).​


Also, lets not forget that Garcia is 37 and rapidly approaching 40...usually a bad sign for a guy who relies on his feet. At the same time he did not start his NFL career till later on...​


Speaking of aging players, TB defense looked a lot older last year. Not so long ago, this team dominated opponents. Last year they only sacked the opposing QB 25 times (second worse in the L). Gaines Adams I think will help this number BUT will not turn it completely...​


When talking about totals, especially unders I think that the FG kicker and ST are a big part. Every time has at least one game that is decided by their FG kicker. Whether that is a coach to scared to kick because of a crappy kicker OR a kicker drilling a 62 yarder as time expires. Matt Bryant crushed that 62 yarder last year BUT that was more of an outliar. He was only 17 of 22 on the season. Also, TBs return game was busted last year.....​


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Official PLays

INDIANAPOLIS/New Orleans OVER 51.5

CowBoys -5.5 (not letting this get any higher)


Cinci -2.5

Leans
Cinci/ Baltimore OVER 40
Titans +7
Buffalo + 3
STL -1.5
Philly - 3
ATL +3
Detroit +1.5
SEA - 6
 
Last edited:
Brandon Jacobs has never been an every down back, because he has never been given the chance. He is in his 3rd year.

You like Plax, but he's one of the Giants receives I don't like. His catch percentage is low, and he's a crybaby cancer to the team. Oh, and don't forget the penalties, the constant calling for the ball, and the quitting on plays. Eli must have 2-5 interceptions last year just because of Plax. What does a lack of heart mean?

I understand you love Dallas -5.5 over the Giants, but just remember a healthy Giants team going into dallas and whooping the Cowgirls last year.

Then remember an injured Giants team lose by a prayer Martin Gramatica field goal later in the year.

Big win on road
tiny loss at home

New coach, and I don't understand how you love Dallas who is favored by almost a touchdown.

Is this just a fade on Eli and Coughlin... who made the playoffs 2 for 2 in the last 2 years?
 
C-Gold said:
Brandon Jacobs has never been an every down back, because he has never been given the chance. He is in his 3rd year.

You like Plax, but he's one of the Giants receives I don't like. His catch percentage is low, and he's a crybaby cancer to the team. Oh, and don't forget the penalties, the constant calling for the ball, and the quitting on plays. Eli must have 2-5 interceptions last year just because of Plax. What does a lack of heart mean?

I understand you love Dallas -5.5 over the Giants, but just remember a healthy Giants team going into dallas and whooping the Cowgirls last year.

Then remember an injured Giants team lose by a prayer Martin Gramatica field goal later in the year.

Big win on road
tiny loss at home

New coach, and I don't understand how you love Dallas who is favored by almost a touchdown.

Is this just a fade on Eli and Coughlin... who made the playoffs 2 for 2 in the last 2 years?[/quote]



I guess it is not that I like Plax really, it is just I see his potential and am just waiting for a breakout season ( which may never come). Last year was last year, things are completely different. Plus, you throw in that they were 8-8 last year. Who cares if the made the playoffs, they were a mediocre team.


BOL this week:cheers:
Click to expand...
 
If Plax was ever going to have a breakout year, what better year would it be than last year, when the other 2 Giant receivers were hurt, and Tim Carter just wasn't good.

Eli had 3 options last year.
1. Throw to Plax
2. Throw to Shock
3. Throw to Tiki

It was Keyshuan Johnson, Terrell Owens, or Brandon Lloyds dream! He was the only damn receiver the team had. He could have caught 100 freaking balls. If he couldn't do it last year, then why would he now with Toomer back, Moss and Steve Smith out there?


The Giants might have been 8-8, but does their record make them a mediocre team? I would have loved to see what would have happen if they didn't lose 2 receivers, their starting LT, their 2 probowl defensive ends, their 2 starting corners and their FA linebacker.

They might have been a " medicore" 8-8 team, but they had the hardest schedule in the entire NFL going into last year, and after the season played out they had the hardest schedule of any team that made the playoffs.

8 of their games were against playoff teams!

They faced both super bowl teams, and the Saints who finished the season 4th. That is facing 3 of the best 4 teams, and 4 other playoff teams.

It is very rare to have 3 playoff teams come out of one division, but the Giants made it. That says something to me.

Their schedule is much easier this year, and hopefully they won't lose both probowl DEs and both starting corner backs for extended periods of time.

The Giants started out last year what, 6-2? Even with that hard schedule, then they got embarassed a few games, but they also lost some close ones along the way ( Gramatica Prayer kick). So if a couple of games would have ended differently, or even say the Gramatica kick, would they be a " good team" if they were 9-7 instead of 8-8?

8 games against playoff teams!

I was hoping you would throw out a different angle than " they were a mediocre team" last year. I thinking of pounding the Giants +5.5.
 
C-Gold said:
If Plax was ever going to have a breakout year, what better year would it be than last year, when the other 2 Giant receivers were hurt, and Tim Carter just wasn't good.

Eli had 3 options last year.
1. Throw to Plax
2. Throw to Shock
3. Throw to Tiki

It was Keyshuan Johnson, Terrell Owens, or Brandon Lloyds dream! He was the only damn receiver the team had. He could have caught 100 freaking balls. If he couldn't do it last year, then why would he now with Toomer back, Moss and Steve Smith out there?


The Giants might have been 8-8, but does their record make them a mediocre team? I would have loved to see what would have happen if they didn't lose 2 receivers, their starting LT, their 2 probowl defensive ends, their 2 starting corners and their FA linebacker.

They might have been a " medicore" 8-8 team, but they had the hardest schedule in the entire NFL going into last year, and after the season played out they had the hardest schedule of any team that made the playoffs.

8 of their games were against playoff teams!

They faced both super bowl teams, and the Saints who finished the season 4th. That is facing 3 of the best 4 teams, and 4 other playoff teams.

It is very rare to have 3 playoff teams come out of one division, but the Giants made it. That says something to me.

Their schedule is much easier this year, and hopefully they won't lose both probowl DEs and both starting corner backs for extended periods of time.

The Giants started out last year what, 6-2? Even with that hard schedule, then they got embarassed a few games, but they also lost some close ones along the way ( Gramatica Prayer kick). So if a couple of games would have ended differently, or even say the Gramatica kick, would they be a " good team" if they were 9-7 instead of 8-8?

8 games against playoff teams!

I was hoping you would throw out a different angle than " they were a mediocre team" last year. I thinking of pounding the Giants +5.5.
Click to expand...

this is a 4 week process of going in circles. We disagree and you are just throwing out ignorant comments. With that said, I wish you the best of luck this week
 
I posted a long thoughful reply. You posted " they were a medicore 8-8 last year". That sounds pretty thoughful.

Maybe since they were 8-8 last year.. they were an 8-8 team
that means they will also be an 8-8 team this year

oh no, wait, they lost Tiki Barber, who was their entire offense, that makes that 8-8 team into a 2-14 team.

Eli Manning doesn't have any heart, he will just quit, and the players all hate the coach because he makes them run extra sprints for being 15 minutes early to team meetings. That means they will all try and play bad so he gets fired. Chalk them up for 2-14. My bad.
 
That means they will all try and play bad so he gets fired. Chalk them up for 2-14. My bad.

thats ok I forgive you
 
If you gave me " reason" why the Giants were bad LY
( lost 2 probowl DEs and 2 corners)

or you gave me good reasons, why you think they will stink, I can have no problem with that.

but just the...
Tiki was god
players hate coughlin because of 15 minutes early incident
Eli has no heart

is crap. You might as well flip coins when you make your bets because those are 3 super public things to say.
 
Giants game should be
NYG @ DAl -3

Public is way to low on the Giants, and even with a 3 point line, I still think the Giants have a very good shot to win this game outright.

Dallas minus 5.5 or 6 is way too expensive. Last years " mediocre" and injured Giants would have coverd both games with that line. Now Dallas has a new coaching staff, and the Giants are healthy.

I hope a lot of people think like you, so that I could get the Giants +6.
:boom box:
 
Cgold- I have stated numerous times about this. You just come back with the same argument everytime. You have stated opinions about everything. You are drinking the Giants Kool Aid and I am not....You might be right, or I might be right.

There is no point discussing it though when you keep just pointing to their schedule and that they were a playoff team. There is no point discussing it- I thought we accomplished that a few weeks ago in Blitz's thread?

Also, I did not know you were not part of the public...please inform on some line shifts so I can win like a sharp too.

I never said anything about Tiki being God or that Jacobs sucks. I said that no one truly knows how he will do. You think he will be a fine replacement but I am not so sure about it. That is what we call differing opinions bro, dont take it personal. I believe there are way too many question marks on this team (WHICH I have stated numerous times), you think they are a 10+ win team....

oh well, I am done with it
 
SEASON totals

way too much juice on the Giants (190) and ATL is off with the local


I have

Cleveland OVER 5.5 (4.5-3)
Carolina UNDER 9 (2.2-2)
 
Thanks DUY

Lol joe...I loved this play when it was at 6 ....Local *line off scoresandodds* had this at 5.5 -150....so i jumped
 
Season 0-3 -1.65 units

Browns + 5 (2.2-2)

Jets + 7 (1.2-1)

STL ML (1.1-1)

Buffalo + 3.5 (1.2-1)

SEA - 6 (2.2-2)

Philly -2.5 (1.1-1)

Washington - 2.5 (1.1-1)

Washington/Miami UNDER 34.5 (1.1-1)

Det + 3 (1.2-1)
 
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