E.T.G.
One of trus baby mommas
5 Unit Plays: 0-0
4 Unit Plays: 0-0
3 Unit Plays: 0-0
2 Unit Plays: 0-0
1 Unit Plays: 0-0
Plays of the Wk:
SoCar Games:
Underdogs:
Totals:
Futures (SC Over 7 Wins) 3.6U to Win 3U: 0-0
Above is how I will be tracking my season. I had success last yr with my Play of the Week, I started it late but I remember it was 4-1, the loss coming by the **** at ND on a halftime line vs. Army! I don't play many underdogs unless I feel they have an outright chance to win so that is why I gave them their own category to track. I am going to try to go 70% or better on South Carolina games, something I think I should be able to do. I also don't play many totals so I felt I would track them like that as well so by week 7 I know to stay away from them! It has been a long wait guys but I am ready for the season! It has been a good off season here on the forum with much participation thanks to RJ, Troy, Bar, Hunt, Jump, Vegas, Yessir, Horn, Lindetrain(big ups to Lind for what he has done), DMoney, Carolina, Garfather, Franki.. I mean if I forgot someone, I am truly sorry but its been real active here. I also would like to point out, I have a degenerate streak and love to lose on MAC games so anytime I play one of those Tuesday night games, fade away.
Some of this might seem repetitive but I took the writeups I had done already and modified them very little.
Georgia Tech +3 @ Notre Dame..... 2.2U to Win 2U
I will also look for a ML play here as we get closer to game time.
Georgia Tech (9-5)
Offense: 7 starters back, should have their best OL under Gainley in his tenure. 8 of the top 10 OL are back this yr and the four returning starters combine for 113 career starts. Tashard Choice (1,534yds in 06') will look to exceed last years production in 07' and this is a very deep unit along with a top FB in Mike Cox (20 starts).
GT key offensive losses: Calvin Johnson
*I did not add Reggie Ball here because they are better without him, everyone who watched the bowl game knows Taylor Bennett can't do worse than Reggie Ball.
Defense: 8 starters back on this side of the ball. The defensive line returns 7 of their top 8 (lost 1st TM ACC DT Joe Anoai), this line included 5 with starting experience. This is one of the strengths of the team along with the OL. The LB position returns 5 of their top 6 with the only loss being #1 tackler KaMichael Hall. DB's also have 7 of the top 8 returning including 5 with starting experience.
GT key defensive losses: DL Joe Anoai, LB KaMichael Hall, CB Kenny Scott
The lines of this team are strong, RB Tashard Choice is more than capable of carrying the load early as they ease Bennett into the starting role. The defense will be one of the tops in the ACC and will keep them in the games as well..WR James Johnson will be looked at as the #1 guy (39rec-608yd-7td), of course Calvin always helps those numbers.
Notre Dame (10-3)
Offense: This unit returns 4 starters and currently does not have a starting QB. As you can see there are a lot of question marks at QB here in early August. The RB position lost Walker but will be alright with a healthy Aldridge, a highly recruited rb in Armando Allen, and Travis Thomas who started 10 games at LB last yr but has converted to offense. WR position will be hit hard as they not only lost their two leading receivers, they lost height as well. Two of the projected starters this yr are 5'8 and 5'10 compared to the 6'5 Samardzija and 6'2 McKnight. I am fully aware they think very highly of NJ standout Kamara however asking a true frosh to do a lot is too much, especially in wk1. The OL is hit very hard by departures as they lose three very experienced linemen, this will be a very young position.
ND Key Offensive losses: QB Brady Quinn, RB Walker, WR Samardzija, McKnight, LG Dan Santucci (13 st), LT Ryan Harris (13st), RG Morton (13 st).
Defense: First there will be a change in philosophy as they move to the 3-4 defense this season. This unit will return 5 starters from a unit that didn't perform that well in 06'. The DL will have 1 less position to fill as they change from 4-3 to 3-4 and that is good for ND who lost DE Abiamiri (13st), DT Landri (13st), DE Frome (9st). Also included in this mix is a few players with a few tackles. The players who accounted for 18 of the 23.5 sacks are gone. The LB unit will have to anchor the defense as they only lose 2 lb's this season. They will have 2 starters back as this position as they move into the new defense. The DB position has been a weak link to the ND defense for a little bit now. They have had a problem with speed the past few years and do return their rock in Zbikowski. Ambrose Woodson who was a 12game starter in 05', lost his position last yr, is back as well and that is a big boost. They also have 6 back with starting experience.
Key Defensive losses: Most of the key defensive losses happened on the DL, the LB's are the core of this defense and the DB's can't play much worse.
Other notes: GT has won their last three road openers (Auburn, Samford, BYU). GT led 10-0 late in the second quater before eventually losing 14-10 in last yrs matchup. GT ran 28times-119yds last yr and allowed Brady Quinn to go 23-38-246yds. I am looking for these numbers this yr to change as I don't feel ND will have near the offensive fire power. I really think ND is going to have a lot of transition problems first wk as they try to get this offense going. There is no time to gel and they are running into a rock solid defense who will be light yrs ahead of their offense. Another distinct advantage GT will have is with their OL pounding the ND newly inserted defensive scheme and DL. Tashard Choice should run wild as well as the Tech OL overpowers the ND defense. I really think GT wins this game handily in South Bend by 7+. One last important note, GT lost 12 lettermen and return 49, ND lost 28 lettermen and return only 30.
Florida State -1.5 @ Clemson..... 2.2U to win 2U:
Monday night football or the wkend chase, however you want to think about it, a lot of people will have money riding on this game since it is the last game of WK 1.. Clemson has won the last 2 games vs. FSU and at home are 37-14 under Bowden. I like to think being a graduate of SC and true hater of the taters that I have a decent feel for the other team from SC. This game is similar in situation to the GT/ND game in the fact that the advantages FSU should have on defense should be too much for CU to overcome on offense just as GT should be able to control the trenches vs. ND. Getting down into the facts of this game; FSU has a pre season DL rated #4 vs. Clemson OL that must replace 4 starters. They have a LB corps rated #11 preseason and the DB's are rated #4 overall. This is a defense with 8 starters back and should be light yrs ahead of the Clemson offense which will also break in a new QB to go with their OL. Yes they lost two good LB's in Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons but this is a team with 13 of their top 15 tacklers back and enough talent roaming that sideline to simply reload at that position. The FSU offense must improve, there is no secret about that but they have 2 good receivers in De'Cody I love sex and Gregg Carr and an excellent RB in Antone Smith. I also would advise people to keep an eye on Jonathan Hannah, he transferred from SC but was a very highly recruited player at TE. He just didn't like the environment in Carolina but this kid is a player with a lot of talent and they will get him into the mix as well, he should help the short passing game. At QB, right now Weatherford is listed as #1 on the depth chart but I will keep an eye on the battle as they begin summer practice. Regardless of that fact, they have less unknown factors working against them in wk1. Spiller and Davis make a sweet combo but they can't block, snap the ball, hand it off, and catch it at the same time so until the line shows they can make holes, the qb shows he can get the ball to the WR's and the offense shows it can do something else but run, I have to think this team will struggle vs. anyone with a good front 7. As far as a line for this game, I would play FSU up to -6 despite CU being a tough home team and winning the last 2 years.
I want to stress a point of emphasis that I will be looking to exploit in wk1. Good defenses vs. new QB's. That factor is prevalent in both the GT and FSU games.
Recap:
GT +3 ...2.2U to Win 2U
FSU-1.5 ...2.2U to Win 2U
Current very strong leans:
South Carolina (-17?) 1st Half:
I don't want to get involved with the whole game if it is over 28points because of UGA in wk 2 and I don't expect that they show too much of the passing game if they don't have to...It will be a healthy dose of Boyd/Davis and 10yd passes to maybe give the TE's and the new frosh receivers for some work. ULL is 0-48 vs. SEC w/ an avg loss by 35pts, I will say that my frosh yr we only beat them 14-7 in the opener but that was then, this is now. Spurrier is salivating at the mouth to run it up on some teams since he hasn't had many opportunities since being at SC..The scene and the hype around Columbia is already out of control and first home game it will an electric crowd and it will be expected that they torch this team...ULL will replace their QB but do have their three leading WR's back and their top RB who ran for 1,232 last yr and 7 of their top 10 OL back... However, the SC defense is going to be pretty strong this yr and breaking in a new QB will not be ideal in this situation which in turn will cancel out their passing game. The front 7 of the Gamecocks is the rock of this defense and should smother any running game ULL tries to come out with. ULL also has a new OC although I do not know how much of scheme change there will be. They will be very undersized here as well with their biggest linemen weighing 311lbs. They are also very light on the DL and only return 5 starters on that side of the ball. All in all, SC has not been all that impressive in opening games over the last 4 yrs...
Miss St 15-0, UCF 24-15, Vandy 31-6, ULL 14-7..
I will be keeping an eye on how the Carolina OL gels this summer which is very important going forward early in the season with UGA in week 2. I think this game reflect the MTSU game more than it reflects a game like Wofford. The incoming class of frosh have some play makers at WR, special teams will be better this yr, the defense much better, the only question is how good will the OL be put together in Wk1. I am however expecting a very vanilla type offense from SC but don't see ULL scoring more than 3 points in the 1st half.
Texas -37, 1st Half
I am still debating with myself how I want to hit this game but I can be real short here. Texas runs it up on teams, especially lowly Sun Belt teams in home openers. Texas will put up something near 55-63 points and prob nearly 40 by half.
USC 1st Half
The logic here is simple, USC can name the score with their 2nd and 3rd teams. Idaho won't score a point in the first half and USC should have 30+ by then.
Other leans:
MSU-19
Zona +4.5
ULM/Tulsa O47
4 Unit Plays: 0-0
3 Unit Plays: 0-0
2 Unit Plays: 0-0
1 Unit Plays: 0-0
Plays of the Wk:
SoCar Games:
Underdogs:
Totals:
Futures (SC Over 7 Wins) 3.6U to Win 3U: 0-0
Above is how I will be tracking my season. I had success last yr with my Play of the Week, I started it late but I remember it was 4-1, the loss coming by the **** at ND on a halftime line vs. Army! I don't play many underdogs unless I feel they have an outright chance to win so that is why I gave them their own category to track. I am going to try to go 70% or better on South Carolina games, something I think I should be able to do. I also don't play many totals so I felt I would track them like that as well so by week 7 I know to stay away from them! It has been a long wait guys but I am ready for the season! It has been a good off season here on the forum with much participation thanks to RJ, Troy, Bar, Hunt, Jump, Vegas, Yessir, Horn, Lindetrain(big ups to Lind for what he has done), DMoney, Carolina, Garfather, Franki.. I mean if I forgot someone, I am truly sorry but its been real active here. I also would like to point out, I have a degenerate streak and love to lose on MAC games so anytime I play one of those Tuesday night games, fade away.
Some of this might seem repetitive but I took the writeups I had done already and modified them very little.
Georgia Tech +3 @ Notre Dame..... 2.2U to Win 2U
I will also look for a ML play here as we get closer to game time.
Georgia Tech (9-5)
Offense: 7 starters back, should have their best OL under Gainley in his tenure. 8 of the top 10 OL are back this yr and the four returning starters combine for 113 career starts. Tashard Choice (1,534yds in 06') will look to exceed last years production in 07' and this is a very deep unit along with a top FB in Mike Cox (20 starts).
GT key offensive losses: Calvin Johnson
*I did not add Reggie Ball here because they are better without him, everyone who watched the bowl game knows Taylor Bennett can't do worse than Reggie Ball.
Defense: 8 starters back on this side of the ball. The defensive line returns 7 of their top 8 (lost 1st TM ACC DT Joe Anoai), this line included 5 with starting experience. This is one of the strengths of the team along with the OL. The LB position returns 5 of their top 6 with the only loss being #1 tackler KaMichael Hall. DB's also have 7 of the top 8 returning including 5 with starting experience.
GT key defensive losses: DL Joe Anoai, LB KaMichael Hall, CB Kenny Scott
The lines of this team are strong, RB Tashard Choice is more than capable of carrying the load early as they ease Bennett into the starting role. The defense will be one of the tops in the ACC and will keep them in the games as well..WR James Johnson will be looked at as the #1 guy (39rec-608yd-7td), of course Calvin always helps those numbers.
Notre Dame (10-3)
Offense: This unit returns 4 starters and currently does not have a starting QB. As you can see there are a lot of question marks at QB here in early August. The RB position lost Walker but will be alright with a healthy Aldridge, a highly recruited rb in Armando Allen, and Travis Thomas who started 10 games at LB last yr but has converted to offense. WR position will be hit hard as they not only lost their two leading receivers, they lost height as well. Two of the projected starters this yr are 5'8 and 5'10 compared to the 6'5 Samardzija and 6'2 McKnight. I am fully aware they think very highly of NJ standout Kamara however asking a true frosh to do a lot is too much, especially in wk1. The OL is hit very hard by departures as they lose three very experienced linemen, this will be a very young position.
ND Key Offensive losses: QB Brady Quinn, RB Walker, WR Samardzija, McKnight, LG Dan Santucci (13 st), LT Ryan Harris (13st), RG Morton (13 st).
Defense: First there will be a change in philosophy as they move to the 3-4 defense this season. This unit will return 5 starters from a unit that didn't perform that well in 06'. The DL will have 1 less position to fill as they change from 4-3 to 3-4 and that is good for ND who lost DE Abiamiri (13st), DT Landri (13st), DE Frome (9st). Also included in this mix is a few players with a few tackles. The players who accounted for 18 of the 23.5 sacks are gone. The LB unit will have to anchor the defense as they only lose 2 lb's this season. They will have 2 starters back as this position as they move into the new defense. The DB position has been a weak link to the ND defense for a little bit now. They have had a problem with speed the past few years and do return their rock in Zbikowski. Ambrose Woodson who was a 12game starter in 05', lost his position last yr, is back as well and that is a big boost. They also have 6 back with starting experience.
Key Defensive losses: Most of the key defensive losses happened on the DL, the LB's are the core of this defense and the DB's can't play much worse.
Other notes: GT has won their last three road openers (Auburn, Samford, BYU). GT led 10-0 late in the second quater before eventually losing 14-10 in last yrs matchup. GT ran 28times-119yds last yr and allowed Brady Quinn to go 23-38-246yds. I am looking for these numbers this yr to change as I don't feel ND will have near the offensive fire power. I really think ND is going to have a lot of transition problems first wk as they try to get this offense going. There is no time to gel and they are running into a rock solid defense who will be light yrs ahead of their offense. Another distinct advantage GT will have is with their OL pounding the ND newly inserted defensive scheme and DL. Tashard Choice should run wild as well as the Tech OL overpowers the ND defense. I really think GT wins this game handily in South Bend by 7+. One last important note, GT lost 12 lettermen and return 49, ND lost 28 lettermen and return only 30.
Florida State -1.5 @ Clemson..... 2.2U to win 2U:
Monday night football or the wkend chase, however you want to think about it, a lot of people will have money riding on this game since it is the last game of WK 1.. Clemson has won the last 2 games vs. FSU and at home are 37-14 under Bowden. I like to think being a graduate of SC and true hater of the taters that I have a decent feel for the other team from SC. This game is similar in situation to the GT/ND game in the fact that the advantages FSU should have on defense should be too much for CU to overcome on offense just as GT should be able to control the trenches vs. ND. Getting down into the facts of this game; FSU has a pre season DL rated #4 vs. Clemson OL that must replace 4 starters. They have a LB corps rated #11 preseason and the DB's are rated #4 overall. This is a defense with 8 starters back and should be light yrs ahead of the Clemson offense which will also break in a new QB to go with their OL. Yes they lost two good LB's in Buster Davis and Lawrence Timmons but this is a team with 13 of their top 15 tacklers back and enough talent roaming that sideline to simply reload at that position. The FSU offense must improve, there is no secret about that but they have 2 good receivers in De'Cody I love sex and Gregg Carr and an excellent RB in Antone Smith. I also would advise people to keep an eye on Jonathan Hannah, he transferred from SC but was a very highly recruited player at TE. He just didn't like the environment in Carolina but this kid is a player with a lot of talent and they will get him into the mix as well, he should help the short passing game. At QB, right now Weatherford is listed as #1 on the depth chart but I will keep an eye on the battle as they begin summer practice. Regardless of that fact, they have less unknown factors working against them in wk1. Spiller and Davis make a sweet combo but they can't block, snap the ball, hand it off, and catch it at the same time so until the line shows they can make holes, the qb shows he can get the ball to the WR's and the offense shows it can do something else but run, I have to think this team will struggle vs. anyone with a good front 7. As far as a line for this game, I would play FSU up to -6 despite CU being a tough home team and winning the last 2 years.
I want to stress a point of emphasis that I will be looking to exploit in wk1. Good defenses vs. new QB's. That factor is prevalent in both the GT and FSU games.
Recap:
GT +3 ...2.2U to Win 2U
FSU-1.5 ...2.2U to Win 2U
Current very strong leans:
South Carolina (-17?) 1st Half:
I don't want to get involved with the whole game if it is over 28points because of UGA in wk 2 and I don't expect that they show too much of the passing game if they don't have to...It will be a healthy dose of Boyd/Davis and 10yd passes to maybe give the TE's and the new frosh receivers for some work. ULL is 0-48 vs. SEC w/ an avg loss by 35pts, I will say that my frosh yr we only beat them 14-7 in the opener but that was then, this is now. Spurrier is salivating at the mouth to run it up on some teams since he hasn't had many opportunities since being at SC..The scene and the hype around Columbia is already out of control and first home game it will an electric crowd and it will be expected that they torch this team...ULL will replace their QB but do have their three leading WR's back and their top RB who ran for 1,232 last yr and 7 of their top 10 OL back... However, the SC defense is going to be pretty strong this yr and breaking in a new QB will not be ideal in this situation which in turn will cancel out their passing game. The front 7 of the Gamecocks is the rock of this defense and should smother any running game ULL tries to come out with. ULL also has a new OC although I do not know how much of scheme change there will be. They will be very undersized here as well with their biggest linemen weighing 311lbs. They are also very light on the DL and only return 5 starters on that side of the ball. All in all, SC has not been all that impressive in opening games over the last 4 yrs...
Miss St 15-0, UCF 24-15, Vandy 31-6, ULL 14-7..
I will be keeping an eye on how the Carolina OL gels this summer which is very important going forward early in the season with UGA in week 2. I think this game reflect the MTSU game more than it reflects a game like Wofford. The incoming class of frosh have some play makers at WR, special teams will be better this yr, the defense much better, the only question is how good will the OL be put together in Wk1. I am however expecting a very vanilla type offense from SC but don't see ULL scoring more than 3 points in the 1st half.
Texas -37, 1st Half
I am still debating with myself how I want to hit this game but I can be real short here. Texas runs it up on teams, especially lowly Sun Belt teams in home openers. Texas will put up something near 55-63 points and prob nearly 40 by half.
USC 1st Half
The logic here is simple, USC can name the score with their 2nd and 3rd teams. Idaho won't score a point in the first half and USC should have 30+ by then.
Other leans:
MSU-19
Zona +4.5
ULM/Tulsa O47
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