Week 1 in the FCS

sleepy said:
It doesn't take much to move the FD numbers. I had a 75 max on sides and 50 on totals. One max bet would move the number 2 points.
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I bet more than that (aren’t limited there) and don’t move any of mine so that’s why I figured someone got it much harder than me
 
sleepy said:
Not like I killed them on the app either

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We just got access to FD in March ‘24 and I only do cfb and March madness for the most part so my volume is nowhere close to that. Weird how DK cut me off with ridiculous limits before even a year as my volume there was less than FD but guess they all have their algorithms. Best of luck this year man!
 
steponaduck said:
Citadel +30.5 will be a play.

And can you imagine if they open sac state +24.5!!!!!
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I can’t imagine that. Other than Ivy I’ve only been FCS since ‘23 but it seems that they’ve gotten much better with the opening numbers. However, one could fall through the cracks still.

steponaduck said:
I am not limited that way at fan. Have no trouble getting down 350-900 on these at each of the 3 accounts I have at FD.
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3 accounts, I just pictured you at a desk with multiple monitors like a stock trader.
 
sleepy said:
Nope. It was always 75/50 on the app no matter when I bet.

There are no deposit limits that I'm aware of.
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I forgot, this is why you go to the physical book in person to get action in. What state again?
 
Yeah. Higher volume sniper. Plenty of CLV. I see it I guess. Thr
s--k said:
I can’t imagine that. Other than Ivy I’ve only been FCS since ‘23 but it seems that they’ve gotten much better with the opening numbers. However, one could fall through the cracks still.


3 accounts, I just pictured you at a desk with multiple monitors like a stock trader.
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you pictured correctly
 
s--k said:
Did it matter how soon to open you were betting or not. I could do a few hundred per wager on FCS-FCS sides and never had any issues.

I saw that different states have different deposit limits (like some states you can only deposit up to $1000 or something in a 30 day period). I wonder if states would set max bet limits? I think you know it wouldn't be my intent to say this for any other reason other than to explore the topic at hand, but I was successful at FD last year and they never limited me in any way and I suspect the same to be true for carolinablue. So sleepy, I wonder if it was a state thing with that $75 max?
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It’s weird though because DK cut me off at the knees early on but others play there with no issues so I won’t pretend to know why certain books limit and others don’t, as FD and BM are the only ones who don’t seem to care when I win, but again others have no issues with MB, Bovada and others.
 
steponaduck said:
What do you think it will realistically come out at?

SP+ shows 17.5

Sag 24.5

Anything north of 14 is a play here for me on the Hornets
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Well, I don't know what they will release. I will say that the SP+ has Sac State ranked 24th and human polls have them 15th in the StatsPerform and 14th in the Coaches which illustrates people think this team, if all the transfers work, has a chance to be pretty good. I don't know how the computer PRs are estimating the potential overall and the talent of the 2025 team vs the 2024 team.

If it was last year, the PR lines would make sense because that team was a dumpster fire. But this year everyone kind of knows they could make a legitimate playoff run and I would have to assume somebody responsible for setting or oking the lines that get released using some judgement on how they will be attacked one way or the other when the line gets released.

I'm just waiting to see what they open it at and reacting in the moment. Very fascinating game. And for me at least, it is the first time anyone is playing. I am all for trying to line up my opinions with wagers on teams sight unseen, but it is also a time for me to exercise some caution. I'd like to establish some data on who these teams are before really committing.
 
I am a major believer in what Sacramento State did in the off-season,
300/1 to win the national championship, was already able to get $700 down on it at heritage through 3-4 accounts.

Everybody will see their 3-9 record from last season, and now they have to travel to South Dakota state, the best team in FCS, look how good they were the last several years, nobody can beat them at home. You know the rhetoric.
 
steponaduck said:
I am a major believer in what Sacramento State did in the off-season,
300/1 to win the national championship, was already able to get $700 down on it at heritage through 3-4 accounts.

Everybody will see their 3-9 record from last season, and now they have to travel to South Dakota state, the best team in FCS, look how good they were the last several years, nobody can beat them at home. You know the rhetoric.
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Sac State definitely has that potential. It just all has to click. The OL and DL is going to be the area where they could be most vulnerable and SDSU is still the strongest.

So...even if Sac State were SP+ 15th instead of 24th lets just say to more closely match the human voters, that would only move their SP from 9.5 to 11.5 (that is what UTM is), even if we are more generous and place them at like 13 that is what Tarleton is, and Sac State if everything works out probably would compare strength wise to Tarleton, that is 14.1. SDSU is 22.9, not sure what you or anyone gives for HF, let's say 3. 25.9 -14.1 = 11.8. 11.5 could be a line and with the talent they have assembled, they could be live for sure. It's not like SDSU isn't dealing with turnover. If we gave Sac State the UTM SP+ then it is 25.9-11.5 = 14.4 and there is your "anything north of 14" line. So I will guess somewhere between 11.5-14.5 and will be bet down after open.
 
s--k said:
I forgot, this is why you go to the physical book in person to get action in. What state again?
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Yes, The Draftkings at the Wild Rose Casino in Emmetsburg, Iowa

I went 2 weeks ago and the guy would only let me bet to win 250 on college win totals

I must have some kind of look where they never let me bet what I want. Might be the track suit or something.
 
sleepy said:
Yes, The Draftkings at the Wild Rose Casino in Emmetsburg, Iowa

I went 2 weeks ago and the guy would only let me bet to win 250 on college win totals

I must have some kind of look where they never let me bet what I want. Might be the track suit or something.
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I picture you to be like Tony D’ Angelo from WWE NXT haha

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Just so you have ref points for the games that I saw posted early this morning…

Pitt 34.5 vs Duquesne
WVU 35.5 vs RMU
Navy 38.5 vs VMI
Florida 46.5 vs LIU
USA 28.5 vs Morgan St
UConn 25.5 vs CCSU
Memphis 23.5 vs UTC
AFA 30.5 vs Bucknell
BC 37.5 vs Fordham
NIU 10.5 115 vs Holy Cross
 
BYU now up to 44.5….getting 10pts of line value on that game reminds me of some of the crazy numbers we would get the best of a few years back!
 
WVU up 3 from open to 38.5
Navy up 3 from open to 41.5
Memphis up 4 from open to 27.5
Pitt up 3 from open to 37.5
Arky up 3 from open to 43.5
 
I'm settled into my home away from home location for the weekend now, but next week is going to be a bitch for the week 2 thread I'm afraid.

Will get some FCS-FCS thoughts posted. Hope you guys got some good numbers on plays you like last night or this morning.

Pitt total only moved 1 pt? From 54.5 to 55.5.

The thing I would really like for Pitt is the fact that they have last year's starting QB and they now have the Western Carolina '22-23 starting QB Gonzales (Pitt OC was '23 WCU OC). So whenever they want to take the starter out, they can put another guy in who is going to be really familiar with this offense and vs an NEC D I would expect it to operate pretty well no matter who the QB is.
 
sleepy said:
Hopefully MyBookie takes the lead on putting up the FCS games.
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MB is my #2 book, with FD being #1 just for openers really.

DK has some stuff up, I took SFA 1Q, 1H and ttl Ov there. I guess DK is my #3 although they really haven't been any kind of leader in FCS before. But FD doesn't have have 1H lines for the Thursday games yet?! They did a few weeks ago (I took Duke 1H and 1H Ov there) but they took it down and haven;'t put it back up

Some books just offer stuff for the FCS-FBS games that they won't once it is just FCS-FCS. I'm using fewer books this year, probably just 5, maybe 6 if I fund BetRivers. BM and Bovada being my other offshores. I enjoy line shopping and picking off better numbers and for the MLs, shopping can yield large savings and differences.
 
I think we are still waiting for a few FBS-FCS lines?

Ala St-UAB, BCook-FIU, AP-MTSU, N Ala-WKU, UAPB-TTech

MTSU and TTech would be of interest spread depending
 
Mercyhurst at YSU. YSU D will get a test from Mercyhust QB Urena. After passing for 2651-60%-23-13 in 2023 he topped it last year with 2773-67%-31-5. I believe he benefited from the eligibility rule change for JUCOs. He’s down his top target, WR Barrimore who caught 71-913-13 and is off to FBS Arizona. The next 4 returning WRs had just 11 TDs combined compared to Barrimore’s 13. Still, YSU’s D being what it was last year it will be interesting to see what kind of game Urena can have – he’s been named the preseason NEC O POY. Last year YSU struggled vs all kinds of offenses, they allowed just 25 ppg on average ’22 and ’23 yet last year with almost all their starters gone allowed 35.8 ppg and 7.6 ypp! The run D and pass D were equally awful. Looking at the DBs with respect to Urena’s game, the top CBs are gone from last year and that maybe isn’t bad. They are moving S DJ Harris to CB, he was MVFC All Newcomer team after transferring from Dll. They can afford this kind of move because right now 7th year Hickey is healthy (missed all of ’24, former Yale CB now playing S) and their other S Shahid is back plus they added Tulsa’s #2 tkl’r in Hodge to play a 3rd S spot. Opposite Harris at the other CB spot it will be another Tiffin guy, Wimpye (5 INT’s there last year – YSU’s team only had 3!). So they are coming into this game, 5 DBs and only 2 were on the field for them last year and only 1 at the same position. Would hope it has to get better. Pass rush will help, something they lacked last year (just 21 sacks ’24 compared to 34 in ’23 with 17 fewer hurries). A pretty good DE Voitus is back, he’ll need to produce more, but everyone else is new, they are trying a bunch of Dll type transfers, some of which had good production at that level, so this might be ok vs the Mercyhurst OL as they were Dll just 2 years ago AND the Mercyhurst OL lost 4 of their best from last year and have turned to JUCO for some immediate replacements. Looking at what good NEC Ds did vs them, like CCSU, they got 4 sacks, Duquesne, they got 4 sacks and 9 QBH. So Urena is down a really good WR and will have a weaker OL in front of him to start the year while YSU shuffled the DB and DL to look for improvement.

The YSU O is going to be good especially vs weak defenses. QB Brungard was starting for the first time last year and was MVFC 1st Tm All Purpose, great athlete 998-6.3-16 on the ground and did hit 66% for 2141…but with a 12-11 ratio. They added an OC/QB coach who has been OC/QB/pass gam coor at a couple P4 including Ohio State and Penn State (Yurcich). There is optimism that Brungard improves under him. YSU can and will lean on their run and are in good shape here with #1 Wright back and a bunch of other guys who can step in and do really well. LT Leigh is starting to be spoken of among the best FCS OTs. The OL will be good. WR Tomczak was one of 300 players named to the Senior Bowl watch list. I’m not sure what the rest of the unit will look like, Hensley came on down the stretch and will start now. Some good TEs and a couple Dll WRs they expect to have an impact.

YSU is going to score. Some might point to the Duquesne game where Penguins scored just 25 on another NEC D, but Duquesne was a top D in the NEC, YSU shouldn’t struggle to score vs an NEC D, but still, point being Mercyhurst is a bottom NEC D. The question is how can they corral Urena and there is some evidence with some downgrade around him and some new players on D for YSU that Penguins could be ok here. The line could open around 21, for comparison YSU was -25 vs the 2023 NEC champ Duquesne (think it opened around 17/18 and was bet up to 25). The total, Massey has at 56.5 and realistically YSU could approach that themselves. They did vs Valpo last year thanks to a 35 pt 1H and 24 pt 2H. Robert Morris and Montana State each scored 50+ on Mercyhurst last year, and NEC Champ CCSU scored a season high 38 pts and season high yards 425 yards on them. For perspective CCSU avg just 24ppg and 319ypg on the year. I'm hesitant to want to lay big pts with YSU, but will certainly look for the Over.

Dayton at Eastern Illinois. Dayton was one of the top Ds in the Pioneer last year (18.3 ppg, 4.5 ypp allowed Pioneer games only), but a really horrific O (17.8ppg and 4.4 ypp) – those are Pioneer vs Pioneer stats only. For the lower rung leagues I like to just compare them to their peers not the out of conference games. Eastern Illinois was one of the worst Os and Ds in their league (stats all games) 18.5 ppg O, 32.6 ppg D.

Dayton returns most of their key O guys, if it matters. Their OL did take a hit, they lost 2 of their 3 All Conference guys and return just 2 starts. They actually are really young OL, 14 of 21 OL are Fr or rFr with just 4 Jr/Sr players!

Bad news for Dayton is they lost most of their D. 3 of their 4 All Conf D players gone. Had 79 TFLs, only 12.5 are back and just 2.5 of their 27 sack production is back. The DL and LBs are especially hit with top 5 producers at DL and the top 2 LBs gone as well. Just 3 of top 7 DBs return. Young in lots of places, only 2 DL are upperclassmen with a ton of Fr and rFr. 6 of 8 LBs on the roster are Fr or rFr!

So I don’t know if I expect a really pedestrian O to be much better…Vs teams not named Marist and Ave Maria, Dayton O avg just 270 ypg in their other 9 and avg just 12 ppg in those! 7 of their 11 games they were held to single digits in the 1H (shut out 4x) And the D down most of their important guys should be a little softer.

Eastern Illinois is replacing a very experienced 2 year starter and are doing so with a transfer from Wisconsin who has never played, Cole LaCrue. They also lose a really good RB, but have most of their other good players back, 3 starters on OL plus added a Robert Morris starter. Top 3 rec are back and a key WR from ’23 who missed ’24. So if LaCrue is ok and a RB emerges, the O could be better than last year’s dismal numbers. Turnovers were a huge problem for them last year too.

The D is down several guys, but good news, they have 2 good DL players from ’23 back who missed ’24 (especially Van Hyfte who led TFLs ’23). LB takes some hits too, but they do have #2 tkl’r Porter back, Tm Captain Garza and two transfers, including Foster who was #2 SLC tkls at UIW ’23. Similar story at DB, lose the contributors, but have lots of decent options filling in. They have Morehead State 2 best DBs the last couple years in CB Lyons (1st Tm Pioneer ’23) and S McCall transfers in this year who had a lot of big plays during his time at Morehead. And EIU has a CB starter back who got injured last year.

Have to say, like the players and experience on EIU better, especially how and who they are filling in on D. It’s really just a matter of how the new QB is, he hasn’t thrown a pass in a real game since high school 2022. The lines for this game are all over the place. Massey is smoking crack with the 16.5. Sagarin 6.4 and SP is about -1. I will look to play Eastern Illinois on a small number and hope the new QB is up for it.

Lindenwood at St Thomas. Both these teams are post-season eligible for the first time in 2025. Lindenwood beat them 64-0 vs them at home last year! Lindenwood outgained them 541-148 (8.1-2.7)!

St Thomas has peaked it would seem. From an up-and-coming Dlll transitioning team that dominated the Pioneer League at first 3 years (21-3 combined record) : 10-1 (8-0) 2022 to 8-3 (7-1) 2023 to 6-6 (5-3) 2024. The O just lacks players, especially at QB and I don’t know if that will be any different this year. Their “best” QB transferred out. 1st Tm RB, 1st Tm WR, 1st Tm OL all gone. The OL looks down a good bit, losing 3 multi-year starters and while they have some reserves who have played, only 2 OL coming back have significant experience. Top 3 DL gone, 4 of top 5 DL overall gone. They return just 6 of the unit’s 26 TFLs (just 1.5 of 9.5 sacks). Pretty good shape at LB and DB, 14 of top 18 in the back 7 return. DBs probably the strength of the D, lots of guys make plays back there for them and 10 of 12 return. There is a new OC (Mike McIntyre’s son), new OL, WR and TE coaches. Looking for something different on O.

Lindenwood does return an experienced QB in Glantz who had some decent numbers last year and RB Hall was 1st Tm and Fr POY. Bad news is stud AA WR Caldwell gone and he dominated the targets and receptions. And the OL loses 4 starters, two of which had NFL interest. One upperclassman returning starter, a Soph transfer from AP (never played), rSoph (2 career games) and 2 rFr make up the starting unit to start the season.

Lindenwood D is weak, they gave up 29.17ppg and 421ypg last year, they gave up 713y to W ILL, 554 to UCA, 519y to TTU, 491y to GW, 476y to Mo State and 458y to E ILL. And from that D some of the “best” players, 6 transferred out to FBS or decent FCS schools.

Lindenwood O figures to take a step back this year without Caldwell and a weaker OL and the D, it’s never good anyway. Last year’s result, man, St Thomas is going to want to avenge that game in the worst way. And being at home, well, maybe they can? 2021 UNI hosted and beat St Thomas 44-3, they did the return trip last year and UNI hasn’t been good for a couple years now, but last year, St Thomas played them tough at home with Northern Iowa only winning 17-10 as 28.5 pt away fav. This line figures to be small however. Definitely can see St Thomas throwing the kitchen sink out in this game, but would need some generous points for me to consider them, it's just what do they have on O? St Thomas was dogged at home 3x last year and they went 3-0 ATS with 1 outright upset vs San Diego when St Thomas outgained them 459-265 (7.3-4.5) – best game of the year, huge game for RB Adebayo who isn’t here anymore. Would not lay pts here with this Lindenwood team, I don’t think they have ever been a road fav? Last year's result could lead to some action coming in on Lindenwood and if so, maybe I take St Thomas at home and see how much energy they show up with.

West Georgia at Samford. Full disclosure, I’ve done a lot of my own work researching teams, I didn’t make it to either of these. I have to question Samford’s reputation and where HC Hatcher's recent results. Hatcher was a Dll national champion head coach at Valdosta State, but that was a long time ago. Four winning seasons here his first 4 years, but the last 7 seasons, it's just the Michael Hiers year of 2022, outside of that, this program is no longer any good. Some big stat games here and there, but I don’t get the respect people have for them. 6-5 in 2023 and 4-7 last year (third losing ssn last 7 years).

Samford was just 1-5 ATS as a fav last year, just 2-4 SU in those games! They lost to Citadel and they lost to WGU of course. They were just 2-4 ATS as fav 2023 and better at 4-2 SU in those.

They have Crittendon back and he’s a good dual threat, not great, but good. He’s literally all they have back on O, the offense returns 1 starter and it is him. There are some transfers obviously at RB and WR who are going to start right away and probably been pretty good. Defense loses a bunch of guys too, but do have a top DE, LB returning and added a really good CB from Fordham in the portal, Perkins.

West Georgia was shot out of a cannon vs Samford at home in their FBS debut, and while they had some struggles thoughout the season, also of note, they only lost by 1 to UCA and had a 562-361 (5.9-5.8) yard edge in that one on the road. They played Tarleton pretty tough, only trailed by 7 at HT with 2 of Tarleton’s 3 TDs in the 1H being a fum ret TD and a short field TD after INT. Tarleton only rushed for 3.2ypc (Britton was held to 74y on 26att). Wydner is back at QB for WG and while they lose some guys, they certainly bring more back than Samford does. WGU struggled with consistency, but would occasionally play pretty well. It was just their first year FBS after all.

I tend to think trajectory of these teams is opposite, West Georgia is on the rise and Samford is treading water at best if not declining. Looking like a DD fav here and they will want revenge from last year I'm sure, I just don’t know how much better they really are. Don't know I would take West Georgia, but definitely would not lay it with Samford.
 
YSU total up 4 to 58.5
EIU up 2 to 6.5

They briefly had up Lindenwood -2.5, took it down, back up, to 3.5 then back to 2.5
 
Was hoping the URI hype might make for a higher line and take Campbell. Last year was just -4.5 vs Campbell so maybe it is high enough at 16.5.
 
Richmond players talking a lot about the Lehigh game all off season, and with good reason. Lots of turnover on their roster though and very little on Lehigh's. Last year's game was largely a result of what happened in the RZ for these teams. Was hoping Richmond was going to be a bigger fav and I';d take Lehigh. Maybe it moves
 
Lehigh going to favorite was not what I expected. People respect the Mountainhawks
 
have to go to bed, will see what else might be there in the morning
 
Going through the lines now. Nice job on the Penguins over at 54. Not seeing anything I like so far but just starting.
 
UAB 17.5 is a potential play not sure yet

Same with WKU but that one is going down so will wait and see. May take over instead, not sure
 
Campbell getting 17.5 is tempting

UNH I thought would be closer to +2.5 so curious to see if the +5.5 moves or not as I like central but no value in that line for me. Would probably take UNH if 7. Also over as I missed the total first time through.

TSU at single digits has my eye but need to dig a little deeper

WKU at under 4 TDs is on the short list but may wait for a team total at 44.5 or less
 
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