Week 1 in the FCS

I didn’t take anything in those new 3. Do believe Laf will compete better than Fordham and don’t expect BG to be as good as they were vs Fordham in last years opener. I’m concerned about Laf D however.
 
If you happen to see Navy, Pitt, Arky, WVU, Tx Tech, UConn or AFA before me definitely let me know as your timing has been impeccable on these!

I was out walking the dog with my wife when these opened by the way LOL
 
s--k said:
I didn’t take anything in those new 3. Do believe Laf will compete better than Fordham and don’t expect BG to be as good as they were vs Fordham in last years opener. I’m concerned about Laf D however.
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I wouldn't be surprised if Lafayette made me sweat for a half or so, but ultimately I think BGSU wears them down in the trenches and ends up winning something like 38-17 as having it play out similarly to the Lafayette game vs Buffalo last year would not surprise me at all, which is why I like getting that 16.5 number.
 
MB hasn’t moved several numbers or hasn’t moved them much, like BYU only got bumped. .5 and 1H still 21. I’m all over BYU already though.

But one weakness I sometimes have is decisiveness and using multiple books helps me there. I had says in the above commentary I would guess Under Nich-Troy. It’s down 4 pts at FD. Unchanged at 50.5 at MB. So my lean and market move tells me oh shit play thst. Especially yesterday we saw how good Nich D was and we already knew it was good they just proved it. And I’m still not confident their O can be counted on. Zero Troy knowledge however.

But if you want say UND, down 3 at FD, still 28.5 at MB

This is where I really like having multiple books to get different lines
 
carolinablue said:
I wouldn't be surprised if Lafayette made me sweat for a half or so, but ultimately I think BGSU wears them down in the trenches and ends up winning something like 38-17 as having it play out similarly to the Lafayette game vs Buffalo last year would not surprise me at all, which is why I like getting that 16.5 number.
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Style of play I’d assume you are right if BG starts really leaning on them. Not sure ‘25 BG compares as well to ‘24 Buff, but for your angle to play out they don’t have to compare
 
s--k said:
Style of play I’d assume you are right if BG starts really leaning on them. Not sure ‘25 BG compares as well to ‘24 Buff, but for your angle to play out they don’t have to compare
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Yeah was more so speaking on the returning starters on the line will allow Eddie George to pound the ball and open up the passing game a bit and BGSU may end up with 200+ on the ground against Lafayette like Buffalo did last year.
 
Any thoughts on that 32.5 with Delaware State was I thought it would be 28.5 so was close to taking a shot but the variance wasn't within range so I passed. Curious to know how you see that one playing out as I think DSU is feisty enough to stick around for a while but I also wouldn't be surprised if Delaware put up 50+.
 
carolinablue said:
Any thoughts on that 32.5 with Delaware State was I thought it would be 28.5 so was close to taking a shot but the variance wasn't within range so I passed. Curious to know how you see that one playing out as I think DSU is feisty enough to stick around for a while but I also wouldn't be surprised if Delaware put up 50+.
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DSU with DeSean Jackson I really don’t know. Without looking at anything my belief is Delaware can be a good medium sized favorite but I would not look to play them in the 30s for sure. You either, so considering DSU instead is probably worth considering I just don’t know. Kaiden Bennet at QB is better than Adams. But Bennet just arrived fall camp. He is certainly feisty, I would anssume he’s going to have to carry the team. And the rest of the team with DeSean who is hip and cool enough, I’m sure they all are feeling confident but I also picture them lacking discipline. The D? Delaware isn’t real explosive with some of the skill they lost. It’s a lot of pts, not sure it’s been this high. They play every year I think
 
ULM back down to 23.5 has my interest as I am not sure if St Francis will be able to put up more than 10 and this will be one of the few games where ULM will be able to pretty much have their way with their opponent, so I wouldn't be surprised to see them do so. I see it went from 21.5 to 24.5 and now back to 23.5 so on the fence with this one as I assume mismatch but not sure what to make of the line move
 
s--k said:
DSU with DeSean Jackson I really don’t know. Without looking at anything my belief is Delaware can be a good medium sized favorite but I would not look to play them in the 30s for sure. You either, so considering DSU instead is probably worth considering I just don’t know. Kaiden Bennet at QB is better than Adams. But Bennet just arrived fall camp. He is certainly feisty, I would anssume he’s going to have to carry the team. And the rest of the team with DeSean who is hip and cool enough, I’m sure they all are feeling confident but I also picture them lacking discipline. The D? Delaware isn’t real explosive with some of the skill they lost. It’s a lot of pts, not sure it’s been this high. They play every year I think
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Yeah I see the Blue Hens have won by more than 32.5 a total of three times out of the 11 games in the series, which is in line with what I was thinking before I looked it up, as I viewed this as a comfortable 21-27 pt win for Delaware each season and that is close to how the series has shaken out over the years.
 
carolinablue said:
Yeah I see the Blue Hens have won by more than 32.5 a total of three times out of the 11 games in the series, which is in line with what I was thinking before I looked it up, as I viewed this as a comfortable 21-27 pt win for Delaware each season and that is close to how the series has shaken out over the years.
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that’s what I would say, a comfortable but not exactly a suffocating dominating win for Delaware. Comfortable does not equal a 32.5 pt spread. 41-10 still covers for DSU. Kaiden Bennet is X factor. Boom bust all those cliches. He makes the game more interesting. I’d just worry about all the other players.

Who does Delaware have in deck? Not like season opening home game as FBS member isn’t big, but do they have maybe a bigger game that follows? Could play a role
 
UD is at CU. Not was I was thinking. I thought maybe if they hosted an FBS or had a CUSA game a look ahead could qualify but I’d say not
 
s--k said:
that’s what I would say, a comfortable but not exactly a suffocating dominating win for Delaware. Comfortable does not equal a 32.5 pt spread. 41-10 still covers for DSU. Kaiden Bennet is X factor. Boom bust all those cliches. He makes the game more interesting. I’d just worry about all the other players.

Who does Delaware have in deck? Not like season opening home game as FBS member isn’t big, but do they have maybe a bigger game that follows? Could play a role
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Was waiting for you to mention that haha...they are headed to Colorado in Week 2 which may play into the comfortable but now landslide victory angle vs in-state rival, but part of me wonders if they want to shut up DSU by making a statement and end up winning 52-10 or something. Will probably end up passing and then I don't even wanna watch as I just know it will end up 27-17 or something if I pass on it ha
 
s--k said:
UD is at CU. Not was I was thinking. I thought maybe if they hosted an FBS or had a CUSA game a look ahead could qualify but I’d say not
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My point with CU though is they could potentially overlook this one a bit and start game planning for that one mid week splitting time with the DSU prep, plus they are gonna be on the big stage so will want to get outta week 1 without any damage as know one will remember a blow out win in Week 1, but everyone will be saying their name if they shock the world in Week 2...
 
I know you have your system which works well, but do you ever just throw a fraction of a play on something vs passing. You probably also have an idea your record in passes. I play about anything I have a hunch on, even a small amount. If it loses I don’t care but if it wins I am happy I atleast has a little on it.

I do think there could be some resentment with the noise coming out of DSU post-Jackson hire. So maybe that’s a thing, a desire to humble them but who really knows.

Let me reread what I said in the game on page 1. Remember what I said, without notes I can’t remember a lot of stuff.
 
carolinablue said:
My point with CU though is they could potentially overlook this one a bit and start game planning for that one mid week splitting time with the DSU prep, plus they are gonna be on the big stage so will want to get outta week 1 without any damage as know one will remember a blow out win in Week 1, but everyone will be saying their name if they shock the world in Week 2...
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True. There last couple vs big time FBS teams haven’t gone well, I’m used to thinking for FCS teams other games mean more but now that they are FBS the mentality changes (proving they belong for instance)
 
I think I would be compelled to take the pts, the fact it is above 31 is nice. Just as Delaware may have desired to prove they belong or whatever the following week, same applies to DSU here (new coach new team new attitude new expectations). I haven’t know what to make of Jackson and have much lower regard for his hire here than I do for Vick at Norfolk. Vick at Norfolk I take as a serious hire and attempt and think they could turn into something with him there. Jackson at DSU just seems like a circus and attention grab by both parties. But considering it all, Bennet gives them scoring potential even if he is just freelancing the entire game. Like I said 41-10 covers. 48-16 or whatever weird combo.
 
s--k said:
I know you have your system which works well, but do you ever just throw a fraction of a play on something vs passing. You probably also have an idea your record in passes. I play about anything I have a hunch on, even a small amount. If it loses I don’t care but if it wins I am happy I atleast has a little on it.

I do think there could be some resentment with the noise coming out of DSU post-Jackson hire. So maybe that’s a thing, a desire to humble them but who really knows.

Let me reread what I said in the game on page 1. Remember what I said, without notes I can’t remember a lot of stuff.
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I play everything at the same amount although I did consider doubling up on byu last night at 34.5 but didn’t. Just part of my disciplined based approach but totally hear what you are saying as I know you have a way that absolutely kills it for you, so that speaks again to there be so many ways to skin this cat. I may go ahead and take the 31.5 since it does cover 28 and 31, as I would hate to see it drop lower, so will keep ya posted.
 
Took the 31.5 115 at FD as I would kick myself if it dropped to like 27.5 or something....Happy getting 28 and 31 numbers covered. If they lose by exactly 32, I deserve it.
 
s--k said:
Nice that there was time to figure it out and still get the 31.5



The old, you snooze you lose thing? Hopefully that won’t be the case
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The whole I tend to overthink some plays and then the line gets away from me thing LOL...Debating ULM with myself right now as I see that one as 38-7 type of game or 38-10 worst case, so trying to figure out what I may be missing...
 
carolinablue said:
The whole I tend to overthink some plays and then the line gets away from me thing LOL...Debating ULM with myself right now as I see that one as 38-7 type of game or 38-10 worst case, so trying to figure out what I may be missing...
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It probably comes down to how you feel about ULM. We would expect SFU to be very limited offensively, like you said you are giving them 7. Maybe let's say 10 max best case (a FG after a muffed punt or something). ULM scored 30 on Jackson and we both know Jackson is pretty good. I actually bet Jackson vs ULM last year and they weren't competitive. So is ULM still at least as good as they were vs Jackson, are they better or did they get worse. They aren't good, just comparitively speaking.

SFU does return all their QBs, none of whom are good, but they've played. SFU lost a lot of players on O and D. They traditionally are accustomed to their good players leaving in the portal and they had some players to plug in, but they have been declining the last couple years so it must be getting thin to find these guys and keep the level of play they previously had.

Even if 7-10 is best case pts for them, what is worse case? They could be shut out right, if ULM has that kind of capability. SFU beat Kent, but they ran on Kent. That particulary RB transferred to Merrimack. Actually their top 2 transferred out. Everywhere except QB, some OL return and a 'good' LB, but basically they lost a ton of their players and now they are plugging in guys they have tried to develop or lower level transfers. It's a bad recipe. If ULM was able to beat Jackson who we respect 30-14 then they should do better vs SFU. And if Kent was favored by 17.5 vs SFU, then...is this ULM 6 pts better than that Kent?

SFU didn't top 200y of ttl O in 4 or 5 games last year, and that includes vs NEC Ds. I'm talking myself into playing ULM
 
s--k said:
It probably comes down to how you feel about ULM. We would expect SFU to be very limited offensively, like you said you are giving them 7. Maybe let's say 10 max best case (a FG after a muffed punt or something). ULM scored 30 on Jackson and we both know Jackson is pretty good. I actually bet Jackson vs ULM last year and they weren't competitive. So is ULM still at least as good as they were vs Jackson, are they better or did they get worse. They aren't good, just comparitively speaking.

SFU does return all their QBs, none of whom are good, but they've played. SFU lost a lot of players on O and D. They traditionally are accustomed to their good players leaving in the portal and they had some players to plug in, but they have been declining the last couple years so it must be getting thin to find these guys and keep the level of play they previously had.

Even if 7-10 is best case pts for them, what is worse case? They could be shut out right, if ULM has that kind of capability. SFU beat Kent, but they ran on Kent. That particulary RB transferred to Merrimack. Actually their top 2 transferred out. Everywhere except QB, some OL return and a 'good' LB, but basically they lost a ton of their players and now they are plugging in guys they have tried to develop or lower level transfers. It's a bad recipe. If ULM was able to beat Jackson who we respect 30-14 then they should do better vs SFU. And if Kent was favored by 17.5 vs SFU, then...is this ULM 6 pts better than that Kent?

SFU didn't top 200y of ttl O in 4 or 5 games last year, and that includes vs NEC Ds. I'm talking myself into playing ULM
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Appreciate the detailed response! Curious who would you have winning on a neutral...Bryant or St Francis? I assume Bryant but by how many would you favor them by? I kinda think of ULM as being about equal to NMSU so looking at that 19.5 vs Bryant in comparison to the ULM 23.5 vs St Francis for example...
 
carolinablue said:
Appreciate the detailed response! Curious who would you have winning on a neutral...Bryant or St Francis? I assume Bryant but by how many would you favor them by? I kinda think of ULM as being about equal to NMSU so looking at that 19.5 vs Bryant in comparison to the ULM 23.5 vs St Francis for example...
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I'll have to say recently speaking Bryant's O would be superior and SFU's D would be superior. So it's not like either team has a complete edge. Right now, pick'em, I would take Bryant vs SFU.
 
If the SP+ ratings are any indication, they have SFU ranked 25 points ahead of Bryant. I don't know what the rating number is for a spread, but I don't believe that would be correct. The SFU D is not returning much, on D they only return 1 of top 9 tkl’rs with 6 transferring out, 3 were All NEC and all gone. 8 overall on D transferred out. And D was the only thing that was remotely good about that team, and the RB who is like 'screw you guys' I'm too good to be here
 
Sagarin has SFU -1 roughly vs Bryant on neutral.

Massey Bryant -2.5
 
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Definitely fishy for such bad teams in their respective subdivisions to go from 21.5 to 24.5 to 23.5 and back to 21.5 within hours.

Duck can speak for himself, but if I remember I think he posted about SFU-ULM being one of the bigger mismatches FBS vs FCS this week.
 
s--k said:
Definitely fishy for such bad teams in their respective subdivisions to go from 21.5 to 24.5 to 23.5 and back to 21.5 within hours.

Duck can speak for himself, but if I remember I think he posted about SFU-ULM being one of the bigger mismatches FBS vs FCS this week.
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Oh yeah I remember that…maybe he was behind the 21.5 to 24.5 haha. I probably overthink stuff like this a bit but whenever I see lines on random under the radar games like this bounce around 2-3 points back and forth, it gives me pause and I end up passing.

May be nothing but makes me think there is more to the story that I don’t know, so enough reason for me to move on.

Was hoping BM would release more lines today but doesn’t look like it…
 
carolinablue said:
On a side note are taking a small stab at Nicholls ML this week or no?
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No. I think MW is in the ML dog thread. I took the Under there. I am not sold on that offense doing what is necessary. But maybe they are some kind of 'it' team this year. I'll just take their defense. I ML'd SFA vs Houston and SLU vs LaTech
 
This is likely the last night I am online until probably Wednesday night or Thursday morning. Maybe a little tomorrow night. Road trip coming up. I'll be driving through Missouri so hopefully FD isn't dropping lines while I'm in that state
 
Oklahoma State down to 17.5. UTM does not appear to have a good team on paper this year. I would be surprised if they keep their conference championship/share streak going this year. Some PR lines might have this line lower and maybe people are just taking perceived value. Or Ok State wasn't good last year and maybe the expectation is that they won't be again this year either. Have to remember that a 3-9 OkSt team beat one of the best FCS teams SDSU by 24 pts (led 17-6 HT and won 44-20). Can't be optimistic on this UTM team, but people are betting them.

We've spent a ton of time on the FCS-FBS games and I'm still putting my info together on the FCS-FCS games which I am much more excited about because I try to get a handle on both teams rather than just one. And I hope those lines come out late next week 1) so I can take advantage of the opens with all of you and 2) so I can post some thoughts on them beforehand
 
carolinablue said:
Someone just slammed both Lafayette and St Francis…was that you Duck haha…both moved two points just now
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It doesn't take much to move the FD numbers. I had a 75 max on sides and 50 on totals. One max bet would move the number 2 points.
 
sleepy said:
It doesn't take much to move the FD numbers. I had a 75 max on sides and 50 on totals. One max bet would move the number 2 points.
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In fairness that was on the FCS vs FCS games. I could bet much more on the cross over games.
 
sleepy said:
In fairness that was on the FCS vs FCS games. I could bet much more on the cross over games.
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Did it matter how soon to open you were betting or not. I could do a few hundred per wager on FCS-FCS sides and never had any issues.

I saw that different states have different deposit limits (like some states you can only deposit up to $1000 or something in a 30 day period). I wonder if states would set max bet limits? I think you know it wouldn't be my intent to say this for any other reason other than to explore the topic at hand, but I was successful at FD last year and they never limited me in any way and I suspect the same to be true for carolinablue. So sleepy, I wonder if it was a state thing with that $75 max?
 
Will squeeze this one in here. Really interesting game coming up Thursday Towson at Norfolk State. Looking like Towson could be 7-14 pt fav (Sagarin - Massey). Norfolk won 21-14 '23 and Towson won 28-23 last year as a 16.5 pt fav. Berry was making his first start in place of Daniels and he did pretty well. Big story was turnovers, INTs. Brown for Towson had a 3-3 ratio. Threw an INT in the EZ right before HT to keep the score just 14-10 and then threw another INT late in the game up 28-16 and with a long return, Norfolk was able to cut the lead with a late score to lose by just 5. Towson outgained them by 95y, but ypp was the same (5.7-5.8).

2023 Norfolk upset them as 17.5 pt dogs, ran for 350 on them!

Burying the lead here, this is Michael Vick's debut as head coach and their home opener. Should be a great environment.

Another subplot, Towson OC is the Norfolk State OC this year!

Towson HC Shinnick was a very successful Dll coach at West Florida ('19 national champion), expectation is was going to win here. 5-6 year 1 to 7-5 last year. Problem #1, their QB play is keeping them among the middle tier CAA teams. Brown is back this year, just a 12-8 ratio (63%), not much of a runner. They also still have '23 starter Kent 14-6 ratio but worse completion % (58) and fans are not impressed. Some speculation that they might start a tFr Indorf. They have a rFr QB Watkins who is big 6'5" 245 but I am seeing more talk about how Indorf could start because Brown and Kent just aren't what this team needs. So could be something to find out there.

Problem #2 is Towson made big improvement on D last year, cut 7.5 ppg and 70-some ypg from their averages. They held one of the best offeneses in the country, Monmouth to just 14 pts and 361y (5.1). Monmouth was kind of in a funk for 3 games there where they avg just 336ypg after avg 525 ypg their first 7. So it wasn't just Towson that limited them in that section of the season, but still they did. And Towson D had other impressive games like holding NDSU run game to just 3.6 ypc. Most of their improvement in their averages came from games against the worst teams like Campbell, A&T and Hampton who they held all those teams below 300ypg. Stony Brook tore them a new one (52 pts and 512y (6.4). So maybe the D didn't get so much better? But back to the point of "problem 2" they don't return much. Top 6 DL gone, they went to the portal. 5 of their top 8 LBs are gone and 3 of the 5 who left transferred out to other FCS schools, so not a good look really. They went to the portal here too.

So Towson has to figure out who their QB is, either guys we have seen that are limited or a new guy we'll see for the first time. And the D is going to have all kinds of new names at least in the front 7/6 (they run a 3-3-5). Secondary should be fairly set with guys from last year.

I don't know, not like the greatest feel for them out of the gate. They have been favored vs Towson the previous 2 years by more than 2 TDs and failed to cover each, lost 1 straight up. Is this team better? Year 3 of Schinnick with his recruits filling the lineup, one would think, but hard to know for game #1.

Now for Norfolk, they will have a new QB for sure as Daniels is gone, the backup is back who started once (the Towson game), but it will be Israel Carter, once at USF were he played in a couple last year. I'm reading he played in 2 games last year: vs Tulsa 6-8-102-2-0 and Rice 5-6-93-2-0. Carter was former 3* and 19th rated QB in nation at one time and maybe this is a big deal, maybe not, but he is wearing #7 (Vick wore 7 of course). I don't know if that is bold or not, but people seem to make a big deal about it for some reason.

So they are hoping Carter is an upgrade at QB, which they needed. Lose their best WR, but have a couple guys back, probably looking for some guys who contributed decently at W&M and Hampton to play significant role at WR. And of course a few other transfers. RB, they have good RBs, especially King who was 2nd Tm MEAC last year and will be his 3rd year here. The OL blocking for him does lose 4 starters from what I can tell. Their best OL, 2nd Tm MEAC Byrd at RG is back, as are all of the top reserves, one started 5 another started 2, but the rest are just bench guys. To the portal they went, added starting Mercer OL and a couple experienced reserves from elsewhere. Norfolk run game was inconsistent last year, they'd have good games vs FAMU or SHU or Howard, but then Hampton would completely shut them down or even VMI did. So that is a problem.

Norfolk D isn't exactly good, SC State really put it on them, but even like Towson went for 465 (5.7) on them and that was with Brown at QB. Hampton 466 (5.9) and 37 pts was a low point of their season in terms of showing up to play. FAMU went for 403 (7.1) on them. There are reasons there is a new coach here, and it is because of the O and the D. Lots of new faces on D, lots. Two of the D coaches, including the now DC here, came from NAIA where they served as co-DCs there. Some of these coaches like LB and DL, they haven't really coached at any kind of high level. I think the LB coach is getting his first gig and the DL coach was in some kind of developemental thing. We'll see how that works out for them.

After saying all of this I can't be sure who I would play. I don't like the unknown at QB for Towson. I would almost just rather it be Brown or Kent because at least you know they have faced live action, both have lots of starts under their belts. But if it's the tFr, well, upside ok, but downside? Can the D keep it up from last year with new faces in their DL and LB units?

And for Norfolk, I really like the buzz that is going to be in this place for this game. ESPNU. Vick. Israel Carter sounds kind of exciting at QB. But the OL? This D?

X-factor former Towson OC now Norfolk OC! Shinnick vs his former OC, master vs pupil.

It seems like a waste of time for me to do this, type it out, but this is exactly how I figure out what I like and why.
 
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All over ULM -21.5
And BYU -37.5
And north Texas -23.5

I also played Illinois -39.5 a month ago…and San Diego state -12.5 several weeks ago.

Have tons more circled
 
s--k said:
Did it matter how soon to open you were betting or not. I could do a few hundred per wager on FCS-FCS sides and never had any issues.

I saw that different states have different deposit limits (like some states you can only deposit up to $1000 or something in a 30 day period). I wonder if states would set max bet limits? I think you know it wouldn't be my intent to say this for any other reason other than to explore the topic at hand, but I was successful at FD last year and they never limited me in any way and I suspect the same to be true for carolinablue. So sleepy, I wonder if it was a state thing with that $75 max?
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Nope. It was always 75/50 on the app no matter when I bet.

There are no deposit limits that I'm aware of.
 
I am not limited that way at fan. Have no trouble getting down 350-900 on these at each of the 3 accounts I have at FD.
 
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