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Week 0 and Week 1 EARLY Discussion
- Thread starter B.A.R.
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survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
Took -27 this morning. Utah State struggled with uconn, they might be worse than we expected
2daBank
Voice of Reason
certainly not trying to say dont bet bama 1st half (that be silly!) but i dont think you should take a whole lot from that game, could be ucon better than we think, or utah st just need some time to get the offense in sink? now if they look crappy again in next few weeks (obviously they will look bad here!) then i might change my tune, but right now im keeping them same as i had coming in..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
heard a stat that shocked me on one podcast or another the other night, i listen to so many this time of year and do so much reading i cant recall where i heard it, and i didnt check it either cause didnt know how, they sounded believable to me!! lol.. Anyways it was this, the teams who played a game in week 0 are not nearly as successful i would have thought in week 1 vs a team that has yet to play!! believe they said the team who had yet to play has covered the number more than 60% of the time the last 25 years!!!! i sat up in bed and rewound that to listen against to make sure that was right!! i would have bet my left nut it was a edge to the team who played week 1, apparently not!!! As to why they brought up that the team who played week 0 had to practice and prepare for a different team while their week 1 opponent has been focusing strictly on them all off season, certainly made sense to me.
survive&advance
Nothing but net MFer!
That’s fair. You already know my thoughts when I was telling you about uconn +28 last week- I do think Utah State is still a little overvalued despite uconn also being better this year
2daBank
Voice of Reason
sure, if you didnt like them coming in that game certainly shouldnt make you doubt your opinion of them. i really havnt done a ton of looking at all the MW teams so i cant really say but think i have them pretty high up/competing for their side the conf. im just thankful the books kept them at -14.5 even after the game line got pounded down, they basically kept me off them 1st half and forced me to pivot to the 1st half over
2daBank
Voice of Reason
so i played so many props i didnt play many games. im on wvu+7.5, seemingly against everyone i respect on this board and most the world!! pretty obviously i like WVU more than most, i dunno how ya cant think they headed the right direction with this new oc and JT Daniels taking over for Doege? long as daniels can stay healthy he a massive upgrade at qb imo, plus i think they will be a much more modern offense instead of just banging their running back into the los over and over then telling Doege to get them out of trouble on 3rd and long!! they already had talented pass catchers, it was just tough to tell, i dont think that be the case now, i think a couple gonna put up big numbers (value in the early season prop numbers!).. i like pitt also, i been banging that drum longer than most ppl i think (i do follow the acc really closely), love their aggressive d and the front 7 ability to get into the backfield and create havoc!! that said they leave their corners out on a island and they not exactly lock down guys, whenever you can give your qb time they are incredibly vulnerable to big plays!! i think wvu oline will be solid enough to give daniels time, sure he will take a few sacks but he will make some big plays too!!!
that is big cause pitt offense is going in a whole new direction themselves, they go from chuck and duck hero ball with everything dependent on pickett and their all world wr to make plays, to a team who gonna be much more in the head coach mold where they line up and run the ball with their stable of talented running backs. we can argue all day which is better but what should be easy to agree on is pitt not gonna be nearly as high scoring as they were last season! been a while since they played this awesome rivalry but make no mistake it a big one!! despite talent gaps these games tend to be close! that seems even more likely with pitt playing a slower and more conservative offense. there no shortage of bad blood here so think this be a battle.. from my understanding even tho the game says it home game for pitt there will be more wvu fans at the stadium!! i think this a game pitt does win the up front battles and probably controls possession but wvu will hit them for some big plays that keep them in the game.. i like pitt to be in the 24-27 range and think wvu can score 20-24.. just feels like a game to me that is pretty close as i believe wvu gonna be better this year while pitt offense takes a step back..
that is big cause pitt offense is going in a whole new direction themselves, they go from chuck and duck hero ball with everything dependent on pickett and their all world wr to make plays, to a team who gonna be much more in the head coach mold where they line up and run the ball with their stable of talented running backs. we can argue all day which is better but what should be easy to agree on is pitt not gonna be nearly as high scoring as they were last season! been a while since they played this awesome rivalry but make no mistake it a big one!! despite talent gaps these games tend to be close! that seems even more likely with pitt playing a slower and more conservative offense. there no shortage of bad blood here so think this be a battle.. from my understanding even tho the game says it home game for pitt there will be more wvu fans at the stadium!! i think this a game pitt does win the up front battles and probably controls possession but wvu will hit them for some big plays that keep them in the game.. i like pitt to be in the 24-27 range and think wvu can score 20-24.. just feels like a game to me that is pretty close as i believe wvu gonna be better this year while pitt offense takes a step back..
I'm with you on wvu - pitt can be passed on. Entire bet comes down to west virginia pass protection - very poor unit last year - in fact i am sure last year pitt just eats this oline alive. if wvu can protect daniels then the dog will cash and IMO the over as well , in fact it presents a good live bet situation just watching that unit. Slovis/Daniels are 2 very talented qbs. Don't think a desmond ridder has half their arm talent. Amazing to me daneils who has never lost a starting job when healthy is absolutely and utterly slept on !
If west virginia pass protects they should put up points and will force cignetti to throw it which, when pitt, does, they are an over team. Just my opinion. 2 talented qbs to have an under on at a low number and 2 defenses that were passed on last year.
agree, i think the qb for utah state is known to be wild, gunslinger and i see a pick 6 or 2. And I see Gibbs positioning himself for the heisman this game.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
initially i leaned over but even if wvu has success in the passing game i think it more likely they hit some big shots here and there, i dont expect they will be able to continually drive the field on pitt, i think the oline be solid but pitt gonna get home at times against almost anyone! then i fully expect pitt to play ball control, i dont expect them to fall down several scores and have to pass, if that happens i think wvu wins but im not holding my breath on that cause i think pitt will open holes for their backs and have a lot of success on the ground.. i went from leaning over to under, to the point i decided i was passing on the total as i feel more confident this a close game than the amount of scoring there is..
2daBank
Voice of Reason
As I said I went back and forth. Initially I was sure I liked the over but then I started doing the work and realized pitt offense wasn’t gonna be different just cause the pieces but by design they not gonna hang points anywhere close to last year. I got annoyed anytime they even bothered handing the ball off as it just took a down away from Pickett and rarely accomplished much of anything, it was painful to watch, they almost gave vols the game after getting big lead by trying to run the ball and shorten game, just turned into 1 3 and out after another!! I expect they gonna be a much better rushing team this year but will it happen right away? Im
Not sure but either way it should lead to a lower scoring game than we used to with them! If the run game works then it be long clock chewing drives, if not just won’t be lot of scoring drives!
Unless wvu jumps out to sizable lead like @EL CAPO mentioned I just don’t see pitt giving up on the run. Yes I think wvu scores will probably come on or be set up by big plays (If I recall correctly pitt held teams to a really low scoring output on drives inside their 40!) i don’t expect that to happen a lot, maybe 1-2 home runs that go to house but think they struggle to get points by driving the field, at some point the d will get in backfield and kill the drive.
Clearly I’m off my over lean! Lol. I do lean under, the other day it had dropped all way to 48, there was no chance I was playin under that after it been bet down from 54 open! Now that it back up at 51 or higher I def think under the right play, I’m still more confident in wvu w the points in a crazy rivalry game!
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