Week 0 and Week 1 EARLY Discussion

Fading Clemson this season won't be popular but it will be profitable I believe.

maybe fading their offense but the d should be nasty. I been banging the acc drum for years, mostly cause for whatever reason I tend to do really good in this conf, after clemson it has always had so much parity with lot of teams I think are pretty solid, this year everyone seems to be higher on this conf, there a lot of really good qb’s and lot of teams that have nice strengths in one spot or another but exploitable weaknesses in other areas. That probably why I do well w them, very matchup based results!!

Far as clemson goes they really could use DJ to look more like the guy we saw in a couple replacement starts for Lawrence in his last season, not the DJ from last year who was awful!! I don’t really like tying my money up on season win totals but if you made me play it I would play under 10.5 on clemson, not so much cause I’m down on them, much more cause I think the conf as a whole has started to catch up to them!! I expect the run game to be really good, the defense will be nasty especially up front, I dunno if there be drop off cause the DC now Oklahoma head man? I think I could coach this d simply tell them “pin your ears back and get after the qb!”.
 
I have zero trust in Clemson defense this year. Will leave it there.

Im assuming cause Venables is gone? As I mentioned in last post I honestly don’t see it mattering much, on paper they look like the best dline in the country! Pretty easy to coach that! Winning 10 games despite getting horrific qb play just speaks to how nasty the defense is. If memory serves me right the only score UGA got off them came on a DJ mistake?
 
I do think when clemson faces the lethal qb’s in conf, canes, ncst, even Louisville, they gonna need DJ to play solid fb, maybe not spectacular but they need him to keep the chains moving and avoid mistakes!! They get most of those teams at home, they do have to go to south bend in a part of the season where you would think the Irish have things figured out!! Irish gonna need that qb to take a big leap as a passer tho cause I don’t see them being able to move the ball on clemson without threat of the pass!! Believe tigers held teams under 3 ypc on the season!!
 
Vandy QB, I have him closer to 60. DK has props for that game

Oh nice! Last time I looked didbt see any. Remember what I learned the hard way last year, sacks count against ncaa qb rushing totals! Malik Willis was a roller coaster! He would go over number, take a sack back under, go over! Not fun!! Prob not much to worry bout with Hawaii defense getting sacks!! Did white used to qb for memphis?
 
Oh nice! Last time I looked didbt see any. Remember what I learned the hard way last year, sacks count against ncaa qb rushing totals! Malik Willis was a roller coaster! He would go over number, take a sack back under, go over! Not fun!! Prob not much to worry bout with Hawaii defense getting sacks!! Did white used to qb for memphis?
Think that was Brady White at Memphis? I know who you’re talking about but diff guy. I totally forgot about the sacks part in cfb…good call! I remember that Willis over too lmao. I feel pretty good about this one don’t think Hawaii defense is going to do much
 
Think that was Brady White at Memphis? I know who you’re talking about but diff guy. I totally forgot about the sacks part in cfb…good call! I remember that Willis over too lmao. I feel pretty good about this one don’t think Hawaii defense is going to do much

Yea, I don’t think Hawaii gonna be sporting the kind of pass rush Willis was seeing most weeks but in particular that ol miss game! For the 1st 2-3 qrtrs he hardly had any yards despite prob rushing for 40+!! Then he started getting it going and he went over, sacked back, got back over and we were praying he would throw a pick or td and end the freaking drive before he took another!! Lol. Until then I had no idea the sacks counted against as they don’t effect the nfl qb numbers, just the team passing yards go down. Seems dumb to me it not a universal rule on that! But whatever, now we know!!


Im gonna have to look and see who the memphis qb was now? I just remember a kid named white! Maybe that the one on jets now? Beats me, lol.
 
@survive&advance is this kid the for sure starter gonna get all the snaps? In the Steele mag it sounds like the other kid Seals who started as a freshman then last year started the 1st 5 games, got hurt, but then came back and started a few more. Sounds like he regressed from his freshman year tho, the Wright started 3 games including last of year and had 370 total rush yards so certainly sounds like that number very doable assuming he the guy!!
 
I’m super interested in this cause I had no interest playing a side in the vandy/Hawaii game as I told myself no degen just for action bs and I have no clue on this game, props tho?!??? That a different story!!!!
 
I’m a moron it’s Wright just kept thinking White for some reason lol

Lol. You won’t get any judgement from me brotha. I have plenty of my own moron moments! At least we now know he def wasn’t the qb from memphis mike white (if there was indeed a qb named that who played for memphis! Lol). Shoot, you know how many times a year I cap a baseball team against a left handed pitcher only for someone to point out to me the Mfer right handed!
 
@survive&advance is this kid the for sure starter gonna get all the snaps? In the Steele mag it sounds like the other kid Seals who started as a freshman then last year started the 1st 5 games, got hurt, but then came back and started a few more. Sounds like he regressed from his freshman year tho, the Wright started 3 games including last of year and had 370 total rush yards so certainly sounds like that number very doable assuming he the guy!!
Yea I think he’s getting them all based on coach speak over the summer, they want him to be the guy. He’s an excellent athlete, probably the only bet I really like for this weekend
 
Anyone know why Utah and Florida total dropped 3 points?

Was this a RAS release?

Looks like it was around 1pm on Tuesday.
 
Mybookie still has it at 32. Others had it 34.5/35 range. Sounds like only 7 healthy offensive linemen for FAMU
 
So for better or worse I managed to ignore the neb/nw game, I mean not only is week 0 tough but the damn gm being played in Ireland?!??
 
Think I have convinced myself to play the 1st half over 32 in the Utah st/ucon game. Posted lot of thoughts on this in various other threads, overs are not my idea of great bets this time of the year but surely there are exceptions? Im sure I brought up liking Utah st a few times in here, more so 1st half than game but I assumed I be able to get them laying less than -14 (especially since the full game line has come down quite a bit!), no such luck tho as it still sitting -14.5! Utah st 1st half team total is 23.5, considering how leaky their defense is, the former 4 star qb transfer ucon swiped in offseason to run the offense, my assumption this coaching staff will get more out the ucon offense, just not confident they can hold ucon to less than 10 points which what I think it take to cover the -14.5! So pivoting to the 1st half over, if I like ucon to score at least 10, expect Utah st to be right around 24, over 32 seems like a solid play to me!!! W bama on deck I’d think Utah st would love to push this margin quickly as possible to be able to take it easy in the 2nd half, if they do manage to cover -14.5 im pretty confident it will be cause they score 27+, i don’t expect them to totally shut down the ucon O. I need a few plays and this one feels good enough for me to try!!!
 
Decided I have to have one offshore option, I can’t take not being able to play Illinois games this year since I like them right out the gate In week 1!! Not today, I can’t lay that many points w them no matter how much Wyoming has lost… I just keep forgetting bout NW, lol.
 
Decided I have to have one offshore option, I can’t take not being able to play Illinois games this year since I like them right out the gate In week 1!! Not today, I can’t lay that many points w them no matter how much Wyoming has lost… I just keep forgetting bout NW, lol.
I don't have a clue what to expect out of NIU either. That Illy law sucks. Buddy already begging me to place wagers for him.
 
I don't have a clue what to expect out of NIU either. That Illy law sucks. Buddy already begging me to place wagers for him.

It so stupid. Like these kids would be fixing games if only they could get money down on them! I’m sure not being allowed to bet their games in state is the only thing keeping it from happening! No way could they possibly figure out how to get money down w this law!! Not like there this thing called the internet wjere you can not only bet but communicate with ppl all over the world who could get down all the money they wanted! Lol. Shit stupid. Is it just a Iillinios rule? I assumed it was like that other places for schools in those states?? I guess it could be worse, didht you tell me you can’t bet ncaa props in your state? I rather not play Illinois teams and get props!! Then there the state I live in where ya can’t do shit!! All in all the law dumb but could be worse!!
 
I been looking at this nmst/minny gm since I woke up, after watching nmst Saturday I can’t help but think gophers and most notable Ibrahm are gonna run all over nmst!! No idea how to make that work with this huge spread? Think the total and line says like 45-9? Nmst will prob be lucky to get 10, I dunno if gophers will need to throw a pass after watching Nevada run gm have pretty good success, this another level and nmst playing this on thu after playing Saturday night? Normally I’d say it a advantage to get a game under your belt but not so sure here? Seems like a scheduling job that was way more concerned w a paycheck than the kids well being! (Shocking I know).

This gonna be a total beat down just like odds suggest!!!! Only question is how many yards does Ibrahim get before they take him out? I’m guessing close to 2 bills in the 1st half so I’ll be licking my chops to get a rush yards prop on him (maybe a td prop also!), minny will prob run for 350 as a team! Maybe they throw a little just to get Morgan some confidence, they can do anything they want here but it will mostly be bludgeon this overmatched squad, assuming I get props ill not only look at Ibrahim but also whomever I think his main backup will be to get a score at hopefully decent odds along w over yards assuming It be kittle less than 100 for the 2nd stringer!
 
I think CMU+20.5 vs okie lite a solid play. Cowboys not exactly built to blow teams out and if you recall they let a couple little guys stay real close w them last season, missouri st and Tulsa both stayed within 1 score, I believe tulsa was leading in the 4th, and boise should have beat them in what turned out to be a 1 point win after a awful whistle prevented a boise scoop and score that woulda won the game!

I have no doubt cowboys will be good once again but they did lose some good players off that d along w their DC, warren emerged at Rb last year and saved their butts and he now gone, I’m sure they will find another horse but it could take them a gm or 2 to figure it out (kinda like last season when they were in close games vs lessor teams). Sanders still playing qb for them (yet another kid that feels like he been around for half a decade!) which I suppose is a strength? I’ve Always been skeptical of him, I used to refer to him much like Martinez at neb as a turnover waiting to happen, credit to him for most part he cleaned that up last year outside a couple awful games, the baylor game comes to mind and the boise game Gundy refused to even let him throw! His completion percentage/accuracy leaves something to be desired but he def should the ability to improve his game last year so he could be better. It will take time for another big dog wr to emerge for him tho which again just points to me thinking they not gonna come out the gates flying.

Cmu no stranger to playing and giving power 5 schools all they want, McElwain has done a good job here. Last season they played mizzou tough, they did get run by lsu but I believe there were some crappy circumstances/for some reason flight got in day of game? They beat wash st in a bowl. None those teams are on okie lite level but think it shows what CMU about. They bring a lot of talent back with their qb who now has more experience and a stable of really good running backs, they had a awesome oline last year but they did lose 2 tackles to the nfl, that certainly could hurt vs a cowboys d who great at getting after the qb but they bring back all their interior guys who will prob join their teammates in nfl at some point and by all accounts have talented guys to replace the ones who were drafted! They have some talent on the d but why i like them is cause I just don’t think cowboys offense is world beaters by any stretch and have proven to take some time to get it going. I’d be really surprised if cmu gets blown out here, I expect it prob be very competitive at half, looking at this total seems to me books expecting cmu to get around 17 points? I think 2 tds and they cover this as I just don’t expect cowboys to come out and hang 35+ as long as cmu avoids turnovers I think this be more of a grind than that. Okie lite by 2 scores in a game I think plays under the 58.5 total seems right to me (now that I’ve gotten to this point I realize I like the under quite a bit also! Lol).,
 
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I think CMU+20.5 vs okie lite a solid play. Cowboys not exactly built to blow teams out and if you recall they let a couple little guys stay real close w them last season, missouri st and Tulsa both stayed within 1 score, I believe tulsa was leading in the 4th, and boise should have beat them in what turned out to be a 1 point win after a awful whistle prevented a boise scoop and score that woulda won the game!

I have no doubt cowboys will be good once again but they did lose some good players off that d along w their DC, warren emerged at Rb last year and saved their butts and he now gone, I’m sure they will find another horse but it could take them a gm or 2 to figure it out (kinda like last season when they were in close games vs lessor teams). Sanders still playing qb for them (yet another kid that feels like he been around for half a decade!) which I suppose is a strength? I’ve Always been skeptical of him, I used to refer to him much like Martinez at neb as a turnover waiting to happen, credit to him for most part he cleaned that up last year outside a couple awful games, the baylor game comes to mind and the boise game Gundy refused to even let him throw! His completion percentage/accuracy leaves something to be desired but he def should the ability to improve his game last year so he could be better. It will take time for another big dog wr to emerge for him tho which again just points to me thinking they not gonna come out the gates flying.

Cmu no stranger to playing and giving power 5 schools all they want, McElwain has done a good job here. Last season they played mizzou tough, they did get run by lsu but I believe there were some crappy circumstances/for some reason flight got in day of game? They beat wash st in a bowl. None those teams are on okie lite level but think it shows what CMU about. They bring a lot of talent back with their qb who now has more experience and a stable of really good running backs, they had a awesome oline last year but they did lose 2 tackles to the nfl, that certainly could hurt vs a cowboys d who great at getting after the qb but they bring back all their interior guys who will prob join their teammates in nfl at some point and by all accounts have talented guys to replace the ones who were drafted! They have some talent on the d but why i like them is cause I just don’t think cowboys offense is world beaters by any stretch and have proven to take some time to get it going. I’d be really surprised if cmu gets blown out here, I expect it prob be very competitive at half, looking at this total seems to me books expecting cmu to get around 17 points? I think 2 tds and they cover this as I just don’t expect cowboys to come out and hang 35+ as long as cmu avoids turnovers I think this be more of a grind than that. Okie lite by 2 scores in a game I think plays under the 58.5 total seems right to me (now that I’ve gotten to this point I realize I like the under quite a bit also! Lol).,
I have some great angles supporting an OSU play, but mostly just the basic revenge angle is enough for me to play OSU here.
 

Freaking 2016? Was anyone playing this game out of high school yet or even sign letters yet? I guess sanders might have been the qb, or feels like he been there that long anyways!!! Lol. I dunno man, maybe I’m wrong but I just can’t imagine that game impacts this one. I get Gundy was the coach (cmu has totally different staff) but I can’t believe any the kids playing now give a rip whether Gundy barks about it or not. Let’s say they do care or even know about it, it reslly don’t change the fact their offense not really explosive so coveting 3td against a solid squad be tough unless they just totally blank them on d.

I’d love to hear the other angles if you feel like sharing, I don’t want to be dismissive of anything especially without knowing them but matchups and my belief cowboys prob not hanging a huge number without a experienced cmu squad making a bunch of mistakes means more to me than a game in ‘16. None these kids were involved in.
 
The revenge angle isn't huge in my mind, but players can be led pretty easily. You can listen to them talk sometimes and you know they are just repeating everything their coaches have told them. If something important to their coaches or the fans or the university, the kids can be made to believe it. Now sometimes publicly coaches play down revenge games, but you know privately it kills them that CMU beat them the way it happened.

With that said, I think it just adds some extra spice and focus than a normal week 1 home opener would. It's still game 1 and all the unknowns and rust and chemistry problems that could exist can exist. But, if Oklahoma State would've maybe been less interested vs some other group of 5 opponent, I'm pretty sure the name of this particular group of 5 opponent will have everyone's attention. That's how far I take the revenge angle here.
 
I like Minnesota brought back their former OC who coached with Morgan. Minny used to have a pretty good all around O before they lost this OC and hired bum Mike Sanford Jr. They should be able to run at will, but I would also expect some good production out of the passing game, not just for confidence, but because I think they will genuinely be better at it now.
 
Im assuming cause Venables is gone? As I mentioned in last post I honestly don’t see it mattering much, on paper they look like the best dline in the country! Pretty easy to coach that! Winning 10 games despite getting horrific qb play just speaks to how nasty the defense is. If memory serves me right the only score UGA got off them came on a DJ mistake?
At least I had a prop on "defensive score = yes"
 
Is there any unjust over reaction here?

Tulsa was -3 Friday. After Illinois beat Wyoming, now it is 6.5 (116% increase)

WKU was -13 Friday. After Vandy beats Hawaii , now it is 16 (23% increase)

Nevada was -5.5 Friday. After beating New Mexico State, now it is about Even (saw TxSt even road favored briefly) (100% drop).

UNC was -1.5 Friday. After beating FAMU, now App State has flipped to -1.
 
Is there any unjust over reaction here?

Tulsa was -3 Friday. After Illinois beat Wyoming, now it is 6.5 (116% increase)

WKU was -13 Friday. After Vandy beats Hawaii , now it is 16 (23% increase)

Nevada was -5.5 Friday. After beating New Mexico State, now it is about Even (saw TxSt even road favored briefly) (100% drop).

UNC was -1.5 Friday. After beating FAMU, now App State has flipped to -1.
Nevada movement is a mistake. Wyo and Haw movement is justified. Don't know about UNC.
 
Nevada movement is a mistake. Wyo and Haw movement is justified. Don't know about UNC.

I doubt unc move has much to do w last week, not like they didn’t handle business, I guess their d left a lot to be desired vs a short handed team but I doubt they were real fired up for that. Not like rattlers were ever really close. Margin was pretty close to the original number, obviously there was a huge overreaction to the speculation FLam kids didht want to get on the plane, they showed up and gave all they had. Maybe I’m wrong, how the hell do I know why ppl choose to bet what?? I leaned app st before the heels game, still lean that way but I was hoping to get like 4.5 but it been moving the wrong way since open. Another reason don’t think move has much to do with FLam game, it been slowly trending in appy st way since the beginning, well before that game was played, I think it just a continuation of more appy money coming the closer it gets.
 
Florida A&M O looked pretty competent in the 1H, it was only 21-14 in the final minutes before UNC scored late and led 28-14 HT. The 1H line was 31
 
I'm guilty of betting Texas St through the years and I'd be interested if they're catching some pts...it looks like a lot of money was interested in them catching points in Reno. Road fav for them at Nevada? While I don't have any power rating, Phil Steele's power poll had New Mexico State #130, Nevada #121 and Texas State #109.
 
So....looks like the Bama 1H is -27.5 115 right now....Not sure there is much value in that number, but wouldn't be surprised if it is 31-3 or 38-3 at the half, so what do you guys think about the 1H train this year?
 
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