Wednesday MLB Discussion

Under in Mil looks nice. Lineups for both teams look anemic. Of course bullpens always come into play and 7 is a low number. 1st 5 is 3.5 at my book and to me that is a tad bit too low. Was hoping for 4. Any thoughts on LAA/NYY? My gut is telling me to hammer LAA. Pettitte showing a decline his past few starts.
 
No position but Seattle and Angels play the next day and have had issues for ages. Think Angels are largely unplayable for the next 7-10 games.
 
Took a shot with -1.5 RL and then parlayed ML and under . All small though ....

Just think after 2 losses MILW needs this game and has the shutdown type SP to get it with CC. L3 starts vs CINCY 26inn 2 runs ...Phillips out .......
 
So far looking at SF Ov8.5 , Yanks ML and Over 10 Yanks ....but nothing certain or played .....be back..:cheers:GL and of course i was referring to MILW in my last post .....
 
am i the only one that sees value in mosely? The kid hasnt pitched well in the past, but if he can give a 5ip 3ER performance, it would be very respectable for a halo win... Petite has been suspect the past few starts and im having trouble seeing value playing a yanks team that is done for the year against the best home team in baseball..action is about 50/50 as well..so nothing fishy
 
Giants Hennessey lasted at least seven innings in his last four starts with Fresno, including a pair of complete games. Over his last 32 1/3 innings with the Grizzlies, he has allowed 33 hits, walked five and struck out 18, with a 3.34 ERA.

Haren has fallen on hard times of late. The right-hander has pitched poorly in two straight starts and four of his past six. He took the loss against the Dodgers on Friday night, when he allowed five runs in just four innings. Haren said he felt like he had good stuff in the game and felt completely healthy; it was simply a matter of the Dodgers taking advantage of the mistakes he made. The second half has been somewhat of a struggle for Haren over the past two seasons as well, but he says he is as strong as ever.
 
Bengie Molina always gets cranky when he gets a game off, but he was doubly upset to sit Tuesday night because he believes the club has assigned Pablo Sandoval to be Barry Zito's personal catcher, which manager Bruce Bochy denied.

Bochy said he told Molina he was going to sit one of the final two games of the Arizona series, and he wanted Molina to catch Brad Hennessey in his first start of the season today. Molina did not buy it.

"It is a personal catcher whether they say that or not," he said. "I'm not very happy at all. I can't be happy. I came here to play. If they don't consider me a No. 1 catcher, if I can't catch the No. 1 guy on the staff, let me know.


"I ain't stupid. I don't think I've ever been stupid. I've been in baseball for a long time. Come to me and tell me. Of course I'm going to be mad, but there's nothing I can do about it. They're the bosses."
 
somebody just shoot me if I ever bet detroit during a day game again. i've been burned by that WAY WAY too many times this year.
 
cashflowmatters said:
SN: Why the Yanks?
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It started already but go back to game 1 ...Garland vs Pavano and LAA is abot -130 tops ....deceieving final as it was 12-1 but like 2-1 heading into the b6th .....

Mosely is capable ofthe 5inn 3 run outing but not very interested in LAAs pen either ....especially when we talk middle relief...

LAA has had issues vs LHSP recently especially since losing kendrick to which Hunter missed today...

So really the Yanks lineup had a nice edge IMO , the Yanks pen has the edge IMO even if slight and Yanks SP had the edge IMO...

Cant see why the opened NY short here ...if your gonna make Garland -130 vs Pavano I got believe this matchup Yanks worth is increased by at least 30 cents with Pettitte dealing instead of Pavano and have to think that LAAs value drops 30cents with the decline from Garland to Mosley especially since I thought Garland was very solid @ NYY vs us and had a great track record pitching in home park vs NYY .....so saw NYY -130 as the corect opener at the minimum...

Also while Pettitte has been iconsistent late he bounced back with a good effort at Seattle who had been killing LHP so saw that as a good sign....

Played Yanks ML with lesser plays on RL and a parlay Yanks ML and over ....

BOL

Didnt do much else besides small play on UND 8.5 @ Philly and over 8.5 @ SF which I think was probably forced by me . The more I looked at the line should have been 8 -120 and just hoped hennessey was off but Haren with his 1.70 day ERA off consecutive bad starts was in a rebound spot I thought....hope the over cashes but think I messed that up .....

Looking at Texas maybe over as well. Jiminez is gonna be around 2 maybe 3 innings IMO and then the pen gets involved .......just seems to easy to pass up.....:cheers:
 
col @ atl : i think everybody saw what happened to seattle last night and think no way should a shit team be laying this much juice, especially w/ james parr. he pitched a really nice game in his debut (albeit it was the nats) but in any case it should help his confidence. i absolutely do not understand the love for rox ML here?
1. livan has a .342 batting avg against
2. he has a fucking 3-15 career record (1-7 @ turner) in his career. more losses to the braves than any other team and an ERA 5.44
3. the rox are usually known for having solid defense, but it hasn't been the case the past couple weeks. past 11 games, only 3 have been errorless and a couple times have been multiple error games. in the same span they've only had more than 10 hits in a game twice & it was only 10 & 11 hits.
4. Atl now has 4 str8 games w/ more than 10 hits and if they could get a couple more timely hits they would be scoring ridiculous. (atl has left way too many men on base recently)
5. rox 3-13 last 16 meetings in atlanta. coupled w/ them being a shit road team period.
6. the only downsides I see in atlanta is bullpen & the fact they haven't seen livan this year. livan has some crazy fuckin pitches so if you haven't seen him recently you can get caught off guard. atlanta bullpen is obviously worked the fuck out having played 3 str8 extra inning games and some short starts (and they are not great even at full strength.)

i would strongly recommend at least an Atl -.5 1st 5 inning play.
 
don't get me wrong i like livan as a person, but it appears his days in the majors are dwindling... =)
 
Passed on the Texas game as it felt just to forced and laying road chalk in that type game just unsettling .....

Like ATL ML from the get go not sure how I play it though and good writeup. BOL
 
can't give too much of a write-up but i will definately be on boston and over most likely. public under, becket has gotten absolutely killed in his last 2 home starts which have in turn skewed his home stats. sonnanstine is on the HEAVY regress mode and he gets killed by boston anyway. boston bounce back from that tough loss (although it wasn't tough for me because i had TB & over) HAHAHAHAH. i think boston scores 6-8 runs easy tonight and hopefully TB can chip in a couple to stay respectable. there is no doubt everyone will be focused in this game, so no bull shit half ass outs.(which can happen with two non-contending teams) small ball park, which people may forget in their handicapping..
 
sonny doesn't walk people so boston needs to stay aggressive and knock those balls out tha park.
 
Be back later ....

With ATL and Mr.Parr one thing I know he was very good in the minors vs RHBs which is a big reason I took him in his debut . COL is also very RH and if thats all they stack tonight definetly will be on ATL. Especially cause Livan struggles with LHB and ATL has a quite few .....
 
boston could REALLY pour it on when the bullpen comes in because they have pretty lofty numbers against the declining TB pen.
 
jimbo1227 said:
cin @ mil : this game is rough because i personally feel the only play would be +1.5 cincy. they hit lefties extremely well.. in fact they have a winning record when a lefty starts (which is insane if you look at their overall record) unfortunately philips will be out and he's a big factor in hitting lefties. in arroyo's last 7 starts only one has been subpar (@STL). the guy has found his groove and you simply can't look past milky's struggles. i think milky is going to win, but i would feel safe w/ +1.5 because it should be a low scoring game. i might even bet the under. 3-2 or 4-3 IMO. instead of betting -260, there is more value in +1.5 at even money, milky bullpen could very well backdoor -1.5 backers.
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SN, don't you hate when your just too damn smart. got the fucking push on the total even though i fucking knew i should have laid the ridiuclous juice for the 7.5.... DAMN IT. :moose::tiphat:
 
SportsNut said:
It started already but go back to game 1 ...Garland vs Pavano and LAA is abot -130 tops ....deceieving final as it was 12-1 but like 2-1 heading into the b6th .....

Mosely is capable ofthe 5inn 3 run outing but not very interested in LAAs pen either ....especially when we talk middle relief...

LAA has had issues vs LHSP recently especially since losing kendrick to which Hunter missed today...

So really the Yanks lineup had a nice edge IMO , the Yanks pen has the edge IMO even if slight and Yanks SP had the edge IMO...

Cant see why the opened NY short here ...if your gonna make Garland -130 vs Pavano I got believe this matchup Yanks worth is increased by at least 30 cents with Pettitte dealing instead of Pavano and have to think that LAAs value drops 30cents with the decline from Garland to Mosley especially since I thought Garland was very solid @ NYY vs us and had a great track record pitching in home park vs NYY .....so saw NYY -130 as the corect opener at the minimum...

Also while Pettitte has been iconsistent late he bounced back with a good effort at Seattle who had been killing LHP so saw that as a good sign....

Played Yanks ML with lesser plays on RL and a parlay Yanks ML and over ....

BOL

Didnt do much else besides small play on UND 8.5 @ Philly and over 8.5 @ SF which I think was probably forced by me . The more I looked at the line should have been 8 -120 and just hoped hennessey was off but Haren with his 1.70 day ERA off consecutive bad starts was in a rebound spot I thought....hope the over cashes but think I messed that up .....

Looking at Texas maybe over as well. Jiminez is gonna be around 2 maybe 3 innings IMO and then the pen gets involved .......just seems to easy to pass up.....:cheers:
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I am on the OVER in the yanks/laa , I could not support a play on the Yanks, Pettite has been horrible lately & not so great all year. I hope you get the $$$ with the Yanks SN, I just could not put my $$ on this Yanks team. GL on your action!:cheers: As I type this the Pettite implosion is taking place, now 4-2 LAA bottom 5th
 
jimbo1227 said:
quinlan caught stealing home????? AHHAHAHHA
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He was not stealing home, guy tried to steal 2nd, throw went to 2nd,runner on 3rd tried coming home on the throw & Cano threw him out. Agressive baseball, thats why they win. Great throw bt Cano just got him. yanks can not hit Mosley , it is almost comical to watch.
 
jimbo1227 said:
moseley in the 6th inning this year... given up 4 hits in 8 AB's (2 HR's)
moseley the third time through the order .414 BAA. time for an answer by the yanks i suppose.
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Yanks go 1,2,3 in the 6th with Arod K-ing, so much for that stat. Yanks are making Mosley look like Cy Young
 
jimbo1227 said:
@cash.. i don't give a shit about the yanks, just so u know.
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I knew that Jimbo, just reporting what I know & see with the Yanks, I still can not believe they were -140 on the road to the Angels. Pettite has no business being a fav over any winning team on the road. Especially when an Angels win locks up a playoff spot on sept 10th.
 
guys, not to be a dick, but we might want to make an ingame thread if were going to describe every play..
 
also, livan has the smallest k's per 9 innings in the league. im pretty sure his gameplan is just throw it right down the middle and whatever happens so be it..
 
ill have thoughts and plays on the chicago baseball games soon. but i have this fuckin test on the rise of silas lapham tomorrow.
 
chc @ stl : looper is an interesting guy to research. he has been pretty damn consistent, and can keep any team to 1-2 runs an outing. how ever his team has a losing record when he pitched this year. his team has scored 1 run 7 times in his starts, mostly at home. him and lilly actually have pretty similiar season numbers except lilly gets more k's and loop goes for more contact. stl has a losing record this year against lefties and they aren't really a team that is built to hit lefties imo. loop has really nice numbers against the cubs but like his season he hasn't gotten wins. in fact, he has a losing record. i think lilly bounces back tonight and battles all night in a pitching duel. i had bets last night on under 1st 5 innings(W) and cubs ML for the game (L, and it fuckin hurt). tonight i'm once again going w/ under 1st 5 innings and cubs for the game. i want my cash back from last night..
 
And yes the Yanks never cease to amaze me . I truly cant believe they lost . Did anyone see the hit that scored 3 ? 3-2 fastbatll with 2 out and Pettitte throws it right down the middle . The guy hits half a fly ball that lands maybe 150 ft from home and Nady air mails the throw in causing the 3rd runner to score . Pettitte cant pitch out of jams in 08 . Trust me you can go back and see this is probably the 5th or 6th time the exact samething happened in the 5th inning ...

Sad to score 2 runs. Worse atbats ever Matsui fouling like 10 pitches and works like a 15 pitch at bat and Ks on a foul tip? Who does that ? ARod useless ....and then Matsui looked like he took a changeup right down the middle with 1st and 3rd to end the game.....what where you looking for ? Terrible .........
 
tor @ cws : wow, the more i look at this game the more i feel good about it. this one is crazy for me. the doc is my favorite pitcher and i think he should win the cy young. the white sox are my fuckin fav baseball team and i love em. a lot of interesting factors involved here, jays going for 11 str8, sox trying to avoid a home sweep (and season sweep), both pitchers have everything going for them in this matchup. buehrle is excellent at home, in his last 5 outings against toronto he has a 1.37 ERA, going 8 innings in 4 straight, 7.1 in the other. the doctor is excellent anywhere, and he will surely do his thing tonight against a heavily depleted offense (just found out we lost konerko now- he had good numbers against halladay too =\)
one thing that is the biggest sore thumb is that toronto only avg. 3.8 runs/ game against lefties which is the lowest ive seen. neither team has been tearing the cover off the ball by any stretch of the imagination (i've watched both games so far, so it's more than just # of hits) and this is the best pitching matchup so far. i am going to go pretty large on sox as a home underdog avoiding the sweep and under 7.5... the o/u seems shady as hell and im sure SN would tell me they were baiting under money heavy but i have to do it. i seriously see a 2-0, 3-1 sox win...........
 
even if the sox game goes over, i would feel like garbage betting the over in this matchup.
 
jimbo1227 said:
col @ atl : i think everybody saw what happened to seattle last night and think no way should a shit team be laying this much juice, especially w/ james parr. he pitched a really nice game in his debut (albeit it was the nats) but in any case it should help his confidence. i absolutely do not understand the love for rox ML here?
1. livan has a .342 batting avg against
2. he has a fucking 3-15 career record (1-7 @ turner) in his career. more losses to the braves than any other team and an ERA 5.44
3. the rox are usually known for having solid defense, but it hasn't been the case the past couple weeks. past 11 games, only 3 have been errorless and a couple times have been multiple error games. in the same span they've only had more than 10 hits in a game twice & it was only 10 & 11 hits.
4. Atl now has 4 str8 games w/ more than 10 hits and if they could get a couple more timely hits they would be scoring ridiculous. (atl has left way too many men on base recently)
5. rox 3-13 last 16 meetings in atlanta. coupled w/ them being a shit road team period.
6. the only downsides I see in atlanta is bullpen & the fact they haven't seen livan this year. livan has some crazy fuckin pitches so if you haven't seen him recently you can get caught off guard. atlanta bullpen is obviously worked the fuck out having played 3 str8 extra inning games and some short starts (and they are not great even at full strength.)

i would strongly recommend at least an Atl -.5 1st 5 inning play.
Click to expand...

did anyone get on this with me??:popcorn:
 
thoughts on lad..

Lowe is suspect on the road and I think some people may have forgotten about that due to his last good road start. Estes pitched a near gem in <st1:City w:st="on"><st1:place w:st="on">Milwaukee</st1:place></st1:City>, and I think he will have some degree of success against a LHP weaker LAD lineup. I may have considered LAD ML, but AZ lost today to SF, making it a less attractive offering. I liked the under but saw cousins, an over ump bhp… I would actually lean to SD here as Estes is in a good rhythm and they lost in late innings. You just never know if LAD decides to take a break today or try to pull away though..<o:p></o:p>
 
Looking at Lowe and the low at Petco tonight.. Likin the Under 7.5 -120 and a lil ML under parlay.. 3-2 or 4-2 type LAD win here..
 
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