Wednesday mlb discussion

2daBank

2daBank

Voice of Reason
I guess it not enough giving out the winners with amazing content now I also have to start the threads @VirginiaCavs ? Don’t worry buddy, what one more thing I can do your job also!

Lines would go here but I can’t do it! Rough start to yesterday but we brought home the chedda in the late games! Couple early games on the slate let’s get to work!

Odds: https://www.betonline.ag/sportsbook/baseball/mlb
 
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@peelpub94 guy Fancis is going today vs his Mets, don’t love he on extra rest but still think it either his k’s or some type of under as muts offense struggling would prob be his initial thoughts? Really wanna hear what you have to say here!!

I’ve never been the biggest Manaea fan, he been missing way more bats than I ever remember this last 2 months, the k’s tempting and he easily could get 6 the jays not a high swing and miss team, they don’t really walk either (despite @peelpub94 guy Peterson finally blew up! Good call buddy), I like Manaea a lot here but think there more creative ways to play this cause they are pretty sharp on the numbers imo. As my guy Chris Farley would say “I think I have a plan”, everyone knows the next line is Spade saying ?

(Yikes of course!)
 
bulldogs said:
Cubbies do it again. They are giving out free $$$

Gallen looks to be back
Click to expand...

Different but back, he now a low efficiency strike out pitcher, I think it a lessor him for playoffs but they have a path to him punching teams out for 5 innings. And I have a plan that seems to be working, make money off it!!!
 
Didn’t I tell you guys when we banged Kelly ov 17.5 outs -140/l or whatever it was the real like shoulda been -200? Anyone wanna guess what Kelly price is in ov 17.5 outs today vs a better offense in better hitter park?? So we gotta find another way but luckily “I think I have a plan”, everyone could slam the under on Kelly for me then I could get like -150!! Short of that I guess you could parlay his over 17.5 outs but you overpaying against a tougher lineup. I think there some ways around it tho.
 
Morning work calls destroyed me today, like 5 back to backs. Getting into it now, but also shitting my pants in the fantasy baseball finals in my league, trying to find streamers and can't decide. Mize vs Colorado and Kelly vs Texas I'm eyeing, help me with that!
 
This first game should be a circus. Aaron Fletcher who hasn't pitched in the majors in 2 years, has also been getting destroyed in AAA and Independent leagues vs Jonathan Bermudez. I'll pay a lot to see this go under.


Aaron Fletcher:
1726068673051.png
 
bulldogs said:
At Dodgers
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Bro, you can be better than this, give me some fucking details! I’ll never make it to that game ;especially if it night!!). I’m not asking for anything to special, unless you want it to be!. Pitchers, why we like them? Who they hitting against and if/why they keep hitting him! You been in here long enough, you ain’t gotta be me homie, sometimes I don’t wanna be me!! But I know you can give me an outline This game, at least the fucjinn price I don’t even know!! And honestly a bit more as to what you like for easch lineup or pitcher.

Im not trying to offend to I’m actually giving you a huge compliment which is wasting my time capping a game btw! So clearly I think highly of you. Now post some shit I can use in that game and maybe little tidbits of how you mind think it goes. Dont worry if it turns out “right” the fact you have a opinion on
It makes you more right than any idiot who just bet h!!!!!!!!
 
All I was saying is cubs now 10-1 last 11 on the road. And averaging 10 runs a game in those 11. They just put up 19 in two gms vs dodgers

lOPEZ [ATL] HAVING MRI TODAY
 
bulldogs said:
All I was saying is cubs now 10-1 last 11 on the road. And averaging 10 runs a game in those 11. They just put up 19 in two gms vs dodgers

lOPEZ [ATL] HAVING MRI TODAY
Click to expand...

I bet they be pissed if you tried bringing phone in! Be bitch im
Working!
 
I’m just saying bro I don’t know who pitching the line or nothing. It be way more help
To me you listed all that stuff @bulldogs . You kinda like apprentice!but I don’t ask you to get my cigars and coffee!!
 
If they let wheeler pitch deep he will was 8+ but I’m not sure I see them letting him work past 6th unless he is just flawless then maybe 7 but that what it take and not sure it likely. I hate capping baz, although I think I finally hit a play on him last start!? lol . He walking several a game against far less scary lineups, someone in Philly gonna cook one out the park, the question is will they get one after a walk or hit? Who has a good feel for Baz and do you think he can go 5+ not allowing more than 2? I lean to the plus money on phi Ff tt ov 2.5 +115 but im
Willing to listen to argument against Cuz’s like I said Daz ain’t my fav guy to cap
 
Wanted to look at Bowden Francis obviously.. but Mets line up is hard to predict as far as striking out is concerned. Even with his outs at 17.5 which he's hit 5 in a row, Mets usually knock out starters early, 17.5 outs has only hit 33% of the time last 15 RHP vs Mets.

1726076402754.png
 
Could get a little crazy with Manaea alt strike outs, o6.5 +154 on FD. He has a decent shot vs a weird Jays line up

1726076671026.png

1726076724313.png
 
Bradford hasn't faced an offense like the Dbacks, so the 17.5 outs is interesting, because he's hit it 5 in a row.

1726077312959.png
 
Playing Rangers/Dbacks over 8' this afternoon.

Not going to be able to put out the robust reasoning and data like you guys, but few thoughts:
- while Bradford has been solid, his advanced stats suggest he's due for some regression and is not 3.05 ERA pitcher (facing the Halos, A's, post-ASB Tribe, Pirates of late will make a guy look better than he is too)
- Dbacks offense is elite esp vs LHP
- don't think I need to convince you that Merrill Kelly can be hit
- both pens shaky (bottom 7) and Dbacks even worse lately (8.21 ERA L10) while Rangers even worse on road (6.01 away on season)
- no worries with park or ump (Randazzo - 12-14 OU this season but 3-1 OU with these two teams)
- if you're into trends, Dbacks 60-29 over L89 and while Rangers haven't been a big over team this year, they have been more lately (6 of 9)
 
Also eyeing Phils + Stros 2-teamer (pays at a split plus), gotta dig into that, make sure I'm not just blindly liking Wheeler and Brown against lesser teams.
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Playing Rangers/Dbacks over 8' this afternoon.

Not going to be able to put out the robust reasoning and data like you guys, but few thoughts:
- while Bradford has been solid, his advanced stats suggest he's due for some regression and is not 3.05 ERA pitcher (facing the Halos, A's, post-ASB Tribe, Pirates of late will make a guy look better than he is too)
- Dbacks offense is elite esp vs LHP
- don't think I need to convince you that Merrill Kelly can be hit
- both pens shaky (bottom 7) and Dbacks even worse lately (8.21 ERA L10) while Rangers even worse on road (6.01 away on season)
- no worries with park or ump (Randazzo - 12-14 OU this season but 3-1 OU with these two teams)
- if you're into trends, Dbacks 60-29 over L89 and while Rangers haven't been a big over team this year, they have been more lately (6 of 9)
Click to expand...
Good info.

Tailing.

Zona TT and overs been good to me this last month +
 
Sorry so late but you got time!!

Manaea u 1.5 walks
Manaea u 2.5 runs

Mets 1st 3 innings

Mets Ff tt ov 1.5

Jd and Ninmi ov 1.5 h,r,rbi

Francis ov 1.5 walks

Manaea to get win
 
BiffTFinancial said:
Playing Rangers/Dbacks over 8' this afternoon.

Not going to be able to put out the robust reasoning and data like you guys, but few thoughts:
- while Bradford has been solid, his advanced stats suggest he's due for some regression and is not 3.05 ERA pitcher (facing the Halos, A's, post-ASB Tribe, Pirates of late will make a guy look better than he is too)
- Dbacks offense is elite esp vs LHP
- don't think I need to convince you that Merrill Kelly can be hit
- both pens shaky (bottom 7) and Dbacks even worse lately (8.21 ERA L10) while Rangers even worse on road (6.01 away on season)
- no worries with park or ump (Randazzo - 12-14 OU this season but 3-1 OU with these two teams)
- if you're into trends, Dbacks 60-29 over L89 and while Rangers haven't been a big over team this year, they have been more lately (6 of 9)
Click to expand...

Snakes x finna score!
 
I took small flyer on ragans k’s and kc Ff but I didn’t cap at all was just the end a parlay taking shot.
 
2daBank said:
Zona Ff tt ov 2.5
Zona 1st 3 innings -.5
Bradford under 17.5 outs
Bradford ov 1.5 walks
Suarez and walker ov 1.5 h,r,rbi

Kelly to get win
Click to expand...

Have zona over 4.5 for game also.. appears great minds think alike! I been talking to my guy @BiffTFinancial for like 15+ years back in the SBR days! He one the shaper baseball cappers around that doesn’t talk much anymore, my wife get cancer and he stops talking to me ;( He even has my phone number! ;major guilt trip there!
 
In Vegas with several hours to kill before my flight so gonna watch Tex/Az game at local sportsbook. Looks like I might’ve played the wrong team but took Rangers +140 3u
 
Boston ML/Pivetta o4.5 ks SGP +122

All I've got today, he tends to fair well against the O's and they aren't afraid to strikeout. Obviously took the ks down by one with the parlay. FG ML to bring the O's pen into play doesn't suck on paper.
 
laopadak said:
In Vegas with several hours to kill before my flight so gonna watch Tex/Az game at local sportsbook. Looks like I might’ve played the wrong team but took Rangers +140 3u
Click to expand...

God knows I been wrong before but hey, if snakes just get early lead 1-0 or 2-0 for 3 innings, got over their total I’m over if rangers beat them 7-5 in extras! Just gotta wait till Kelly out game for do y’all damage!
 
KJ said:
Boston ML/Pivetta o4.5 ks SGP +122

All I've got today, he tends to fair well against the O's and they aren't afraid to strikeout. Obviously took the ks down by one with the parlay. FG ML to bring the O's pen into play doesn't suck on paper.
Click to expand...

I have no clue on numbers but feel like I never want to be counting on Red Sox pen either. Lol
 
2daBank said:
Have zona over 4.5 for game also.. appears great minds think alike! I been talking to my guy @BiffTFinancial for like 15+ years back in the SBR days! He one the shaper baseball cappers around that doesn’t talk much anymore, my wife get cancer and he stops talking to me ;( He even has my phone number! ;major guilt trip there!
Click to expand...
I maybe used to be sharp but not so much anymore, little time to cap anything but my beloved CFB since got remarried and added kids #3 and #4. I actually do not have your number brotha, must've lost it in a phone switch way back, but shoot me a DM and let's reconnect, I still talk to our old SBR pal pacocn all the time (we cashed with Talen Green prop from you Saturday)! Most importantly, my most sincere hopeful thoughts for your wife and her journey with the big C. You always have been one of my favorite guys to read and follow. I will try to chime in and be more social when work and all them kids allow.
 
2daBank said:
I have no clue on numbers but feel like I never want to be counting on Red Sox pen either. Lol
Click to expand...
I guess that's fair and can easily include them first 5 now assuming if Pivetta gets his k's the Sox should likely at least be in it FF
 
KJ said:
Boston ML/Pivetta o4.5 ks SGP +122

All I've got today, he tends to fair well against the O's and they aren't afraid to strikeout. Obviously took the ks down by one with the parlay. FG ML to bring the O's pen into play doesn't suck on paper.
Click to expand...
Kremer has nightmare career numbers at Fenway as well. GL.
 
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